252 replies to this topic

[makoman]

6 blown saves in 29 chances is the worst save percentage of the top 20 guys in saves. Most everybody in the top 20 has a failure rate around 10%. A couple are at 15%. Kimbrel and Holmes are 20%. Pretty egregious to me!

I could be wrong and it is egregious, but there was no outrage over Felix and his similar 20% in the middle of last year. This board couldn't stop referring to our "all star closer" when he had a similar 17% in 2022. Of course two weeks ago it was under 12%, stats get funny with reliever samples sizes.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. However, what I do know is that prices will not be quite so high because there's no desperation driving a midseason deal. I believe the front office will want to make a splash, and we'll probably sign one, if not two starting pitchers in the off season. Qith that said, just because I don't know how they will solve this problem 6 months from now doesn't mean I'm going to make a bad decision now. They will figure it out.

For what it's worth, I would trade one of their top prospects for a cost-controlled pitcher. If they wanted to pursue Crochet in the offseason, I would be willing to. If they wanted to check in on Skubal in the offseason, I would be willing to. But I'm not paying these ridiculous prices that are being bandied about, like Kjerstad and Basallo and Norby for 2.5 years of Skubal. Not a chance.

More options open up in the offseason, and I have no doubt they will pursue some of them. Getting stupid at the deadline isn't ever a good idea.

Fair enough. I disagree but at least you answered my question.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I could be wrong and it is egregious, but there was no outrage over Felix and his similar 20% in the middle of last year. This board couldn't stop referring to our "all star closer" when he had a similar 17% in 2022. Of course two weeks ago it was under 12%, stats get funny with reliever samples sizes.

 

I'd have to break this down to see if I'm right but it feels like most of Felix's blown saves were him allowing a homer on something he hung while Kimbrel's feel more like they get blown with two walks and a single where he can't throw a strike so Kimbrel's just feel more unpleasant while they're happening 

[Mackus]

14-7 in Burnes starts

13-5 in Rodriguez starts

6-2 in Bradish starts

28-27 in all other starts

 

Since Bradish went down, it's 9-5 in Burnes/Rodriguez starts 7-12 in all other starts

 

I think it'd be a big mistake to only add one SP.  Even if the guys are only halfway in quality between Kremer and Rodriguez, the team is so much better situated when getting a decent start.  Adding those 2 starters also enhances the pen, as Suarez, Povich and McDermott would all be able to move to the bullpen and ramp up in shorter stints.  

[Mackus]

I'd have to break this down to see if I'm right but it feels like most of Felix's blown saves were him allowing a homer on something he hung while Kimbrel's feel more like they get blown with two walks and a single where he can't throw a strike so Kimbrel's just feel more unpleasant while they're happening 

 

You're pretty much spot on.  Of his 6 blown saves, 4 were on a homer.  Two of those were a solo homer to ruin a 1-run lead.  One was a 2-run to lose the game.  The other a GS to lose a 3-run lead.  He didn't blow any 2-run leads and only the one 3-run lead.  Ridiculously good season.

 

The 2-run homer after McKenna dropped the 3rd out to blow (and lose) a 1-run save

Single-steal-single to blow a 1-run save

Ghost runner scored to blow a 1-run save in the 10th

Homer by Judge to blow a 1-run save

Homer to blow a 1-run save

Nightmare against Houston,3-run save blown by Grand Slam

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Next handful of days are going to be interesting. Maybe we get Fedde and Flaherty for the rotation? Gotta do something.

[glenn__davis]

You're pretty much spot on.  Of his 6 blown saves, 4 were on a homer.  Two of those were a solo homer to ruin a 1-run lead.  One was a 2-run to lose the game.  The other a GS to lose a 3-run lead.  He didn't blow any 2-run leads and only the one 3-run lead.  Ridiculously good season.

 

The 2-run homer after McKenna dropped the 3rd out to blow (and lose) a 1-run save

Single-steal-single to blow a 1-run save

Ghost runner scored to blow a 1-run save in the 10th

Homer by Judge to blow a 1-run save

Homer to blow a 1-run save

Nightmare against Houston,3-run save blown by Grand Slam

 

Yeah, I had documented last year that Felix was pretty unlucky.  Actually I think at one point every HR he let up had led to a blown save.  

 

And the ghost runner rule really screws up that percentage for some of these guys also.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I like getting a few deals done early. Gives us a chance to make 1 or 2 more. Whether thats Tues or before.

[Mackus]

Yimi Garcia to Seattle. M's gave up a AAA OF who's had a cup of coffee and a minor league catcher. The OF looks intriguing, he's now ranked #7 for Toronto. Fangraphs just had him at #14 in Seattle's system last month so they weren't as high on him.

Garcia would've been a good target for the 2nd best RP. If Dominguez has already filled that role then I wouldn't have wanted him to be the guy.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yimi Garcia to Seattle. M's gave up a AAA OF who's had a cup of coffee and a minor league catcher. The OF looks intriguing, he's now ranked #7 for Toronto. Fangraphs just had him at #14 in Seattle's system last month so they weren't as high on him.

Garcia would've been a good target for the 2nd best RP. If Dominguez has already filled that role then I wouldn't have wanted him to be the guy.

Garcia has just come back from some arm issue. Made me leery of him. Otherwise, I wouldve loved his addition

[Mackus]

Pete Fairbanks would be a good target if we wanna keep shopping in Tampa.

Fairbanks struggled to begin the year but pitching better lately. Signed cheap for next year and a $7M 2026 option so he'd cost, but controllable and can close.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Anything to send Kimbrel to Mars works for me

[mikezpen]

Seems to be terrible over short streaks but pretty good the rest of the time. He had a downer in late April/early May, yielding runs in 5 of 6  appearances but then went 22 games, yielding only 2 runs- 1 being unearned.

 

Yeah, we need another guy who can spell him, but Kimbrel's been good most of the time.Maybe Dominguez can be the guy we need.