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Balt Sun: 10 starting pitcher trade targets for Orioles in wake of Kyle Bradish injury


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#21 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 11:29 AM

Mason Miller <<laughs>>

 

Crochet discussion above seems correct.  It's kind of funny how everyone wants to do the opposite of the advice one would give an investor.

 

Buy low, sell high.  Right?  Captain Obvious.

 

So why do so many people want to buy ultra high.

 

If you can get Crochet with a package that starts with Kjerstad as the top piece, you put that together and accept the risks.  ...but it's not just Holliday, it's Holliday + +.  I think Slide is correct above.  He's already had TJS.  I'm ok with that, but that is risk to consider (we think Bradish can be ok, right?) but he's got a funky delivery and has never pitched the innings he's at now.. 

 

Maybe he'll be a stable producer and everything is fine....but you have to pay a super-premium to find out.

 

Fedde, at some level, is the same thing.  The CWS got burned on the Cease trade.  They asked for too much, then seemed to panic and got very little.  Do we think their FO is smarter today or they'll go back to their high demands to recoup some of the losses of the Cease trade or they are now well aligned in value and seek packages accordingly. 

 

Everything is Cost of Availability but I'm comfortable taking Crochet and Fedde (and Miller) off this list.  Those will be extreme asking  prices.   


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#22 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 11:38 AM

Snell is a disaster.  Why would he even be on this list.  Yes, you can have Snell + 40M for nothing.  Why would you want that.

 

Why would you have Snell on this list but not Jordan Montgomery?

 

Montgomery winds up being in a little different category than Severino and Gibson.  Snakes aren't out of it, but Montgomery hasn't been very effective and he's owed a lot of money.  Those conditions probably put him in the available category, but not a dump like Snell or some other guys are.


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#23 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 11:54 AM

Kikuchi and Trevor Williams are both interesting cases.  

 

They're more likely trade considerations 5 weeks from now (like Gibson, Severino) but they are probably more reasonably available if you wanted to do something.  They are both sell high today, but neither team would seem motivated to sell....but if someone came calling with something that made a lot of sense, sure (maybe).  That means real returns.

 

I think it would be harder for the Orioles to give the Blue Jays a real return to rent a buy-high Kikuchi.  That seems super-unlikely.

 

Williams I just think everyone kind of waits.  Gets back on the mound and healthy, see where the Nats are in a month.  He's only making 7M this year, so no shed value between now and a month from now.



#24 BobPhelan

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:14 PM

Fedde makes a lot of sense. Won’t cost as much as Crochet. Guaranteed 7.5M next year. Pitched 180 innings last year in Korea. Has had a great 1st half. There’s always the chance for regression bu he’s a solid #2 or #3 right now and the WS are a motivated seller. Obvious question is what prospects it takes. Can you get him with something like Norby and Bradfield?

Number 1 on my wish list, I would do that trade. Maybe you can get an upside bullpen arm thrown in like Kopech.

https://x.com/oriole...VUJft8skf32X07Q

https://x.com/oriole...VUJft8skf32X07Q

#25 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:29 PM

We got dude all lathered up again!

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#26 Slidemaster

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:36 PM

Just going to put it out there: If they're really trying to make a play for Crochet, there is ZERO reason not to try to make a play for Skubal. They are basically the same guy contract and control wise, and even in terms of injury risk, but Skubal has no innings limit.

Jake Irvin, Jack Flaherty (yeah yeah I know), and again, Sonny Gray/Ryan Helsley. If we're throwing names out there from other teams that aren't out of it, those two are at the tippy top of my list, and I think they can be had.

#27 Hooded Viper

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:44 PM

I think crochet makes a lot of sense. He is on an innings limit this year coming back from Tommy John, however, once he starts to get to that point he can easily be moved into the bullpen for the playoff run. Then he’s right back in the rotation next season.

#28 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:52 PM

Number 1 on my wish list, I would do that trade. Maybe you can get an upside bullpen arm thrown in like Kopech.

https://x.com/oriole...VUJft8skf32X07Q

https://x.com/oriole...VUJft8skf32X07Q

 

I think you have to go further.  They ask for more you tell them to throw Kopech in and they do.

 

If you believe Fedde (now 31) is real, he's a good bridge back to Bradish.

 

I still think they'll want top 3, but you say no, so they go Kjerstad ++++

 

Kjerstad, Bradfield, Wagner, Hudson for Fedde and Kopech ?



#29 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:56 PM

Just going to put it out there: If they're really trying to make a play for Crochet, there is ZERO reason not to try to make a play for Skubal. They are basically the same guy contract and control wise, and even in terms of injury risk, but Skubal has no innings limit.
Jake Irvin, Jack Flaherty (yeah yeah I know), and again, Sonny Gray/Ryan Helsley. If we're throwing names out there from other teams that aren't out of it, those two are at the tippy top of my list, and I think they can be had.


The WS are in rebuild mode. The Tigers are not.

#30 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:58 PM

I think you have to go further.  They ask for more you tell them to throw Kopech in and they do.
 
If you believe Fedde (now 31) is real, he's a good bridge back to Bradish.
 
I still think they'll want top 3, but you say no, so they go Kjerstad ++++
 
Kjerstad, Bradfield, Wagner, Hudson for Fedde and Kopech ?


Wagner is almost no value and who is Hudson?

No need to get complicated. Just stick to Fedde. No need to even give up Kjerstad.

#31 BobPhelan

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 12:59 PM

I think you have to go further. They ask for more you tell them to throw Kopech in and they do.

If you believe Fedde (now 31) is real, he's a good bridge back to Bradish.

I still think they'll want top 3, but you say no, so they go Kjerstad ++++

Kjerstad, Bradfield, Wagner, Hudson for Fedde and Kopech ?


They can throw in Pham, if I’m trading Kjerstad I’d want more upside/team control. Feel like this an obvious fit, should be able to work something out.

#32 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:05 PM

Wagner is almost no value and who is Hudson?

No need to get complicated. Just stick to Fedde. No need to even give up Kjerstad.

 

my bad, Hudson Haskin.

 

You're saying you don't have to give up Kjerstad, but why would CWS deal a guy pitching great in this trade market under reasonable control for 2025 without getting a significant piece back?



#33 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:13 PM

my bad, Hudson Haskin.

You're saying you don't have to give up Kjerstad, but why would CWS deal a guy pitching great in this trade market under reasonable control for 2025 without getting a significant piece back?

They get significant pieces. Norby and Bradfield are significant pieces. You don’t offer Kjerstad when probably no other team will offer a better prospect than that. We got Corbin Burnes for two guys not in out top 4. No need to dip into the top 4 for Fedde.

I do find your “sweeteners” of Haskin and Wagner amusing.

Along with Norby and Bradfield (or other similarly ranked) I’d consider rule 5 eligible pitchers like Chace and Portes. The WS need a lot of everything.

They want Beavers instead of Bradfield or maybe we offer Beavers or Fabian instead of Bradfield. No problem. I think there’s a deal to be made without including any of the top 4.

#34 dude

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:18 PM

They can throw in Pham, if I’m trading Kjerstad I’d want more upside/team control. Feel like this an obvious fit, should be able to work something out.

 

They'll throw in Pham....but the Orioles have 4 chips so anyone of significance is costing you one (or 2) of those chips.  

 

Every team is going to look at the Orioles prospects and note that you won 101 games last year and are on a 100-win pace without any of the top guys in your system, so you can keep winning without these guys.

 

Other teams don't want to be reasonable.



#35 Slidemaster

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:20 PM

The WS are in rebuild mode. The Tigers are not.


With the pitching they have they aren't far away, and they have played substantially better after a tragically bad start. They remind me of the 2021 Orioles.

#36 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:24 PM

They'll throw in Pham....but the Orioles have 4 chips so anyone of significance is costing you one (or 2) of those chips.  
 
Every team is going to look at the Orioles prospects and note that you won 101 games last year and are on a 100-win pace without any of the top guys in your system, so you can keep winning without these guys.
 
Other teams don't want to be reasonable.


That’s the dumbest reasoning I’ve ever seen. You don’t need those guys. Give them to us. Selling teams ask high. Buying teams start low. The selling team either takes the best offer or decides not to sell. Same as always. We can make a best offer for Fedde without including the top 4.
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#37 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:24 PM

With the pitching they have they aren't far away, and they have played substantially better after a tragically bad start. They remind me of the 2021 Orioles.



The Tigers?

#38 Slidemaster

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:32 PM

The Tigers?

The White Sox.

I guess 2020 Os is a better comparison.

#39 RichardZ

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:35 PM

The White Sox.
I guess 2020 Os is a better comparison.



If they aren’t so far away, why are they looking to trade their two best starters?

#40 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 22 June 2024 - 01:36 PM

I would be fine moving Kjerstad as the headliner in a package for a legit starter. O's have bigger needs than holding onto a left hitting OFer.




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