98 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Seems like the farm is pretty bare now that we’ve “graduated” this class of prospects.

As we all know every team has two top-20 guys.

[RichardZ]

Far from bare but no current elite prospects after Mayo and Basallo.

Respectfully disagree. I think bare is a fair description. Until a Morfe, Estrada, Sosa, anyone from the 2024 draft actually break through we have no top 100 prospects after Basallo. Mayo may still qualify but barely. There is no next wave as of now. There was no depth to the 21 draft after Cowser and Norby. After Holliday in 22, Fabian is more suspect than prospect, and Beavers didn’t take the next step this year.

We have a bunch of guys who could emerge but right now if you go from Bowie down to Delmarva there are very few prospects you can confidently say are going to become top 100 prospects or top 25.

Also, I know it’s early but Vance Honeycutt is having the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick and the red flags he had before the draft have only gotten darker. We need to do better if we want a pipeline. Right now, I see a big gap. Now, they did such a good job that we have a young lineup pretty much set for 3-5 years, but we’re definitely thin on reinforcements and trading chips in the system.

[BaltBird 24]

A lot of interesting arms between Delmarva and Aberdeen. I'll agree that AA and AAA are pretty slim.

Not quite ready to write Honeycutt off after his first 10 professional games, though.

[makoman]

A lot of interesting arms between Delmarva and Aberdeen. I'll agree that AA and AAA are pretty slim.

Not quite ready to write Honeycutt off after his first 10 professional games, though.

Yeah Honeycutt needs some sort of change, I have no idea whether it's a swing issue or an approach/decision issue, but that simply isn't going to happen in < 50 PAs. You kinda gotta just give it a year and see what's going on then.

[RichardZ]

A lot of interesting arms between Delmarva and Aberdeen. I'll agree that AA and AAA are pretty slim.

Not quite ready to write Honeycutt off after his first 10 professional games, though.

I'm not writing Honeycutt off but his debut just reinforces the concerns concerning his bat. It will be a huge success if they develop him into a passable hitter.

[RichardZ]

A lot of interesting arms between Delmarva and Aberdeen. I'll agree that AA and AAA are pretty slim.

Not quite ready to write Honeycutt off after his first 10 professional games, though.

A lot of interesting arms but no you can really point to, besides Morfe who's 18 and has a long way to go. DeLeon was very disappointing after his promotion. Forret not as much. And then we have the Gibsons and German types that are interesting but really not sure what we have there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

There doesnt appear to be a next wave. And Im not talking about having 5 or 6 Top 100 guys all at once. Thats not realistic. But there doesnt appear to many real prospects. There will always be some guys in the lower levels who show potential and could pop but thats every org in baseball.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It will be interesting to see where the org ranks in these rankings heading into '25. They will still have Basallo and maybe Mayo. Feels like they are probably middle of pack with them. Without them they would probably be in the 20s though

[Mackus]

The good fortune they had with development for the first several years is hard to replicate. I think they're as good as anyone as scouting, drafting, and developing, but even if they are #1 at that you can't really expect the heater they had with non-premium picks like Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Mayo. Even high pick but actually lower rated prospects like Kjerstad and Cowser. To turn someone outside the top-10 into a top-50 prospect isn't a regular occurrence like they've had. Credit for doing it, but can't expect it to continue at the pace we've seen. Can expect slightly better than typical given the skills we think the organization has. I have little concern about the future of the system. Really my only concerns are finding pitching, since it has clearly been a much lower priority.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Check back in on the system after the draft next year, and really after the '26 Draft. 

By that point, the system should have a next waive of guys coming up. 

[Mackus]

Check back in on the system after the draft next year, and really after the '26 Draft.

By that point, the system should have a next waive of guys coming up.

Sure, but it's not a biannual thing like that. We should be checking all. The time. Like now, when we're checking in after the '23 and '24 drafts (and trade periods).

[RichardZ]

Check back in on the system after the draft next year, and really after the '26 Draft. 
By that point, the system should have a next waive of guys coming up. 

Sounds good and I want to agree with you but it can’t be assumed.

[BobPhelan]

Respectfully disagree. I think bare is a fair description. Until a Morfe, Estrada, Sosa, anyone from the 2024 draft actually break through we have no top 100 prospects after Basallo. Mayo may still qualify but barely. There is no next wave as of now. There was no depth to the 21 draft after Cowser and Norby. After Holliday in 22, Fabian is more suspect than prospect, and Beavers didn’t take the next step this year.

We have a bunch of guys who could emerge but right now if you go from Bowie down to Delmarva there are very few prospects you can confidently say are going to become top 100 prospects or top 25.

Also, I know it’s early but Vance Honeycutt is having the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick and the red flags he had before the draft have only gotten darker. We need to do better if we want a pipeline. Right now, I see a big gap. Now, they did such a good job that we have a young lineup pretty much set for 3-5 years, but we’re definitely thin on reinforcements and trading chips in the system.

Bradfield and Honeycutt are borderline top 100 guys but I hear what you’re saying. I’m a big believer in the deluge of arms coming up and the international side is hitting its stride.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sure, but it's not a biannual thing like that. We should be checking all. The time. Like now, when we're checking in after the '23 and '24 drafts (and trade periods).

The roster is largely set.
They have brought up Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Rodriguez... Kjerstad... traded Norby, Ortiz, Hall... Basallo at AAA.

With what they have graduated, clearly a new phase for the Minors and development.

And with what is at the Majors.. and the control they have, they've got time to reload.

Agree you want the system producing all the time...but I'm good with nit expecting much (outside of Basallo) coming up anytime soon.

Lower 1/3 system entering next year.
Mid tier start of 26.
Again looking strong by year end 26.

[NewMarketSean]

They could also, you know, sign some international free agents. Not all of our prospects need to be bro-country Gen Z white boys.

[glenn__davis]

They could also, you know, sign some international free agents. Not all of our prospects need to be bro-country Gen Z white boys.

They've signed a lot of international free agents. The Delmarva roster at the start of the year was pretty much all international FAs.

[BobPhelan]

They could also, you know, sign some international free agents. Not all of our prospects need to be bro-country Gen Z white boys.

They’ve been doing this since 2019-2020 when Elias took over. Takes a while since you’re largely signing 16 year olds. They comin.

[BobPhelan]

The roster is largely set.
They have brought up Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Rodriguez... Kjerstad... traded Norby, Ortiz, Hall... Basallo at AAA.

With what they have graduated, clearly a new phase for the Minors and development.

And with what is at the Majors.. and the control they have, they've got time to reload.

Agree you want the system producing all the time...but I'm good with nit expecting much (outside of Basallo) coming up anytime soon.

Lower 1/3 system entering next year.
Mid tier start of 26.
Again looking strong by year end 26.

They’re not gonna be a lower third system entering the year with Mayo and Basallo eligible. And even when Mayo quickly graduates Basallo will be a top 5 prospect which will carry a lot of weight. By the time Basallo graduates you’ll have another draft class and time for some more break outs.

[BSLChrisStoner]

They’re not gonna be a lower third system entering the year with Mayo and Basallo eligible. And even when Mayo quickly graduates Basallo will be a top 5 prospect which will carry a lot of weight. By the time Basallo graduates you’ll have another draft class and time for some more break outs.

 

Maybe the rankings will be inflated carrying Mayo and given the Orioles reputation, but the bump from him wouldn't be a true indication of where the system is. Where ever they're ranked it's not going to be a particularly strong system, and that's okay.

It shouldn't be at this point given the talent they've graduated. 

 

As I said previously, and you said here... I'm sure it will be back on the upswing after another class or two.

 

 

I'd love to know what the O's think of Basallo as a catcher.

If they think he's good enough to stick there as a starter. 

 

What he did this year at AA as a 20 year old was impressive, but he's getting extra points for doing it as a catcher.

If they think he projects more as backup / occasional catcher, 1st, DH, the profile still works but it's less exciting. 

 

 

Now that he's reached AAA, how this whole scenario plays out going forward is interesting.

Figure he's ticketed for Norfolk to start '25, and gets at-least a 1/2 season of at-bats.
If his AAA performance matches his AA levels this year, there will be sentiment to want to promote him. 

 

Of course at the Majors you've currently got: 

 

Mountcastle under contract through '26.

O"Hearn under contract through '25.

Rutschman under contract through '27, so far this year, 90 games catching, 39 games at DH.

Santander expected to leave in FA. 

Kjerstad likely ticketed for RF.

Holliday likely the 2nd baseman going forward.
Westburg likely the 3rd baseman going forward.
Meaning Mayo's future is likely 1st / DH, which means Mountcastle is probably moved. 

 

So maybe Basallo is up next Summer, getting at-bats at C, 1st, DH... O'Hearn moved, or it just plays out, and Basallo has that spot to begin '26.