230 replies to this topic

[dude]

1)  I find myself biasing my draft thoughts based on who I think they'd take for developmental profiles.

 

My typical preference at #22 would be someone like Tommy White, looking for the big, unique tools (not speed) that can impact the team, but I find myself drifting towards the profiles I'd think they want to develop, like Carson Benge. 

 

2) I always want to get into the (for lack of a better word) manipulating the draft game like we saw with Brock Porter in '22 and maybe the Orioles did something similar with Jud Fabian.  The Orioles should have some cache for doing this more now.  Success of the team, success in development could raise the profile of the Organization.

 

I look at a kid like Pipeline #127 Harrison Didawick. From Chesapeake, VA, playing at UVA, LH OF, 6'4" good power projection, gets a Jake Cunningham comp (and the Orioles loved Cunningham) feels like maybe an eventual Kjerstad type kid. ...but he's a draft eligible sophomore so he has some leverage.  He can put a late 1st round number ($$) out there and keep teams off him and he can fall down the draft board where the Orioles can take him later on Day 2 maybe even Day 3.  You can't do this for every kid, but pick a couple targets that want to work with you and add value to your draft.  Give him money like they did Mayo or Willems.

 

Another kid, also UVA (this will be a theme) OF, Casey Saucke.  His dad played in the Orioles Organization for a couple years.  Not a great sophomore season so if he's got a number over 4th rd $$, he probably can push himself to the Orioles for 500k somewhere down the board.

 

3) Orioles draft: 22 (1), 32 (Gunnar), 61 (2), 97 (3), 127 (4), 160 (5)

 

#22: Feel like Benge could definitely be the target here.  Maybe Vance Honeycutt if he drops just a little.

 

#32: Bob's thought on Alabama HS SS Carter Johnson (P: #40) seems like a reasonable target.  Gets the Gunnar comp from a number of levels.  I also like UVA product Griff O'Farrell (P: #41) here.  That kid feels like a straight Westburg comp.

 

#61: Another UVA product 1B/C Ethan Anderson.  Switch-hitter with power..  Great makeup.  It doesn't seem like he's a pro catcher, but if we're extending Adley and projecting Basallo, having a quality bat 1B/DH bat that can catch in pinch seems like a great opportunity.

 

#97: Probably have to jump on Eastern PA HS 3B Chase Harlan (P: #124) here before the Phillies pop him.  He just lit up the combine with serious power.  Almost feels like a Mayo comp.

 

#127:  I'll take UVAs Casey Saucke (P: #129, mentioned above) here.

 

Hoping to get Didawick in a later round.

[Mackus]

#97: Probably have to jump on Eastern PA HS 3B Chase Harlan (P: #124) here before the Phillies pop him.  He just lit up the combine with serious power.  Almost feels like a Mayo comp.

 

Curious if you have ever gone back and looked at if teams actually have as much of a geographical bias as you seem to like to ascribe to them or recommend they have?  This conversation is draft based, but you often make a point when discussing trades to get players onto the team from their region.  I get why both player and team might want that, but I also think it happens relatively infrequently so I doubt teams are targeting local kids.  Scouting is so national now, while I think teams should have a better take on local kids than the national audience might, that's not exactly reasonable.  And for the top couple hundred kids, everyone knows about them so the local ties become less important.

 

Just using this exact Phillies/PA kid example, the Phillies have drafted 4 players from Pennsylvania in the past 10 drafts and none with a meaningful pick or bonus amount (14th round pick from Pittsburgh area in 2022, 27th round pick from Indiana University-Pennsylvania in 2019, 14th round pick from Philly area in 2015, and a 9th round pick from Temple who only got a $5k bonus in 2014).  Why so confident that the Phillies will be after this guy in the late 3rd round?

[RichardZ]

1)  I find myself biasing my draft thoughts based on who I think they'd take for developmental profiles.
 
My typical preference at #22 would be someone like Tommy White, looking for the big, unique tools (not speed) that can impact the team, but I find myself drifting towards the profiles I'd think they want to develop, like Carson Benge. 
 
2) I always want to get into the (for lack of a better word) manipulating the draft game like we saw with Brock Porter in '22 and maybe the Orioles did something similar with Jud Fabian.  The Orioles should have some cache for doing this more now.  Success of the team, success in development could raise the profile of the Organization.
 
I look at a kid like Pipeline #127 Harrison Didawick. From Chesapeake, VA, playing at UVA, LH OF, 6'4" good power projection, gets a Jake Cunningham comp (and the Orioles loved Cunningham) feels like maybe an eventual Kjerstad type kid. ...but he's a draft eligible sophomore so he has some leverage.  He can put a late 1st round number ($$) out there and keep teams off him and he can fall down the draft board where the Orioles can take him later on Day 2 maybe even Day 3.  You can't do this for every kid, but pick a couple targets that want to work with you and add value to your draft.  Give him money like they did Mayo or Willems.
 
Another kid, also UVA (this will be a theme) OF, Casey Saucke.  His dad played in the Orioles Organization for a couple years.  Not a great sophomore season so if he's got a number over 4th rd $$, he probably can push himself to the Orioles for 500k somewhere down the board.
 
3) Orioles draft: 22 (1), 32 (Gunnar), 61 (2), 97 (3), 127 (4), 160 (5)
 
#22: Feel like Benge could definitely be the target here.  Maybe Vance Honeycutt if he drops just a little.
 
#32: Bob's thought on Alabama HS SS Carter Johnson (P: #40) seems like a reasonable target.  Gets the Gunnar comp from a number of levels.  I also like UVA product Griff O'Farrell (P: #41) here.  That kid feels like a straight Westburg comp.
 
#61: Another UVA product 1B/C Ethan Anderson.  Switch-hitter with power..  Great makeup.  It doesn't seem like he's a pro catcher, but if we're extending Adley and projecting Basallo, having a quality bat 1B/DH bat that can catch in pinch seems like a great opportunity.
 
#97: Probably have to jump on Eastern PA HS 3B Chase Harlan (P: #124) here before the Phillies pop him.  He just lit up the combine with serious power.  Almost feels like a Mayo comp.
 
#127:  I'll take UVAs Casey Saucke (P: #129, mentioned above) here.
 
Hoping to get Didawick in a later round.

1. What unique tools does Tommy White have?
It seems there’s a good chance he winds up 1B. He has power and can hit but he chases too much. Is there
something unique about that profile.

2. Jake Cunningham is hitting under .200 in low A. Is that a good comp?

#32 What’s the Gunnar comp. Besides being a HS SS from Alabama have you seen a scouting report similar to Gunnar’s?

You have suggested 3 UVA picks out of 5 picks and Didawick as an over slot in a later round. Can we assume you’re a fan?

[dude]

I'll answer these questions, in the spirit of a message board, as if you are serious and not just trying to find some angle to push back on.

 

1. What unique tools does Tommy White have?
It seems there’s a good chance he winds up 1B. He has power and can hit but he chases too much. Is there
something unique about that profile.

 

Full disclosure (which I think I say every year) I haven't scouted anyone.  I am purely relying on the professional opinion of the collective efforts at mlb.com (Pipeline).  That's typically not one opinion, so you are getting some blend of different opinions and I'd guess some contributions from other outlets.

 

Yes, Game Power is unique.  He's getting a 60 for power and that includes some (negative) contribution of a shoulder injury.  

 

White continues to stand out with his huge right-handed power to all fields, which he generates with strength, bat speed and an uncanny ability to barrel balls. Known more for his slugging, he's underrated as a hitter who makes repeated contact with impressive exit velocities. Though he's overly aggressive and regularly expands his strike zone, he rarely swings and misses. 

 

Personally, I don't want to draft guys early with usable floors.  You can find those guys all over the place.  You don't have to spend your best draft capital on those types.  Find guys with some potential to make a difference in your lineup.

 

White has not really been the Orioles draft profile (I guess you could argue Kjerstad, but I'm thinking more RHed 1B-type).  That's not good or bad to me, they just like broader tool sets they think they can get to/improve. 

[dude]

2. Jake Cunningham is hitting under .200 in low A. Is that a good comp?

 

Jake Cunningham is that broader tool set they think they can get to.  You seem to want to cross the wires here.  If you don't think the Orioles have a good approach, that's a different discussion.  I don't think we have all of the answers on Jake (or anyone early in development) but the Orioles clearly spent some time on him and his profile is similar to a lot of the profiles they seem to gravitate towards.

 

He reminds some scouts in the region of Jake Cunningham, the UNC Charlotte outfielder who was a fifth-rounder in 2023.

[JeremyStrain]

The O's will take the position players with the highest barrel% and exit velocity, and the pitchers that miss the most barrels with higher velo rates.

[dude]

3) What’s the Gunnar comp. Besides being a HS SS from Alabama have you seen a scouting report similar to Gunnar’s?

 

...add LHed in there.  

 

Because he's an Alabama high school shortstop with a bigger frame than most at his position, Johnson gets compared to Gunnar Henderson. The 2023 American League Rookie of the Year was more athletic as a prepster, but Johnson has similar offensive upside at the same stage. 

 

from Gunnar's 2019 (P: #27) writeup

 

There's still some debate as to where Henderson will wind up defensively. Those who think Gatorade's 2019 Alabama high school player of the year can remain at shortstop believe he's an underrated athlete with a quick first step and a plus arm. Others believe he'll slow down as he fills out and necessitate a move to third base, where he'd still profile well offensively.

[dude]

You have suggested 3 UVA picks out of 5 picks and Didawick as an over slot in a later round. Can we assume you’re a fan?

 

Personally, couldn't care less about UVA.  It's something that started to stick out when I strolled through the top200.  

[dude]

Curious if you have ever gone back and looked at if teams actually have as much of a geographical bias as you seem to like to ascribe to them or recommend they have?  This conversation is draft based, but you often make a point when discussing trades to get players onto the team from their region.  I get why both player and team might want that, but I also think it happens relatively infrequently so I doubt teams are targeting local kids.  Scouting is so national now, while I think teams should have a better take on local kids than the national audience might, that's not exactly reasonable.  And for the top couple hundred kids, everyone knows about them so the local ties become less important.

 

Short answer is No.  I have a much longer answer (below isn't it).

 

My only other comment on the local thing (staying Draft) is that you still are relying, at some level, on the humans that scout these guys.  You don't have the same access to everyone.  National attention acts as a pointer that you can react to, but your relationships are your relationships and it's likely easier for teams to leverage relationships locally/regionally.  My guess is that's particularly true in the scouting community.

 

For every team, it's certainly easier for your Baseball Operations to scout and cross-check locally versus getting on a plane to see one kid.

 

I'd actually put Harlan on my notional list before I read this Combine Standouts article but guy hit the longest ball and had some of the better exit velos, so that's going to likely give him some helium.

 

The Philly thing wasn't so serious, when I looked at where Central Bucks East HS was, it was just north of Philly....so my broader comment is he might have some helium from the Combine where he's gone in the 3rd round.  He's probably a Yankee fan <<shrug>>.

[RichardZ]

I'll answer these questions, in the spirit of a message board, as if you are serious and not just trying to find some angle to push back on.



Full disclosure (which I think I say every year) I haven't scouted anyone. I am purely relying on the professional opinion of the collective efforts at mlb.com (Pipeline). That's typically not one opinion, so you are getting some blend of different opinions and I'd guess some contributions from other outlets.

Yes, Game Power is unique. He's getting a 60 for power and that includes some (negative) contribution of a shoulder injury.

White continues to stand out with his huge right-handed power to all fields, which he generates with strength, bat speed and an uncanny ability to barrel balls. Known more for his slugging, he's underrated as a hitter who makes repeated contact with impressive exit velocities. Though he's overly aggressive and regularly expands his strike zone, he rarely swings and misses. [/size]

Personally, I don't want to draft guys early with usable floors. You can find those guys all over the place. You don't have to spend your best draft capital on those types. Find guys with some potential to make a difference in your lineup.

White has not really been the Orioles draft profile (I guess you could argue Kjerstad, but I'm thinking more RHed 1B-type). That's not good or bad to me, they just like broader tool sets they think they can get to/improve.

What does unique mean? There’s about 7 guys on MLB pipeline’s top 30 with 60 grade power or better. Condon and Caglione have 70 power. When only one or two guys grade out that high, I’d call that a unique tool. Tommy White is a very good college hitter with plus power in college who is overly aggressive. He’s most likely a 1B so lots of pressure on that bat. I bet Vaughn and Torkelson were graded even better coming out of the draft.

It sounded like White would be your pick while you acknowledge he probably doesn’t fit their draft profile.

[RichardZ]

Personally, couldn't care less about UVA.  It's something that started to stick out when I strolled through the top200.  

Very odd to pick four guys from one college as targets within the first few rounds. That’s all.

[RichardZ]

...add LHed in there.  
 
Because he's an Alabama high school shortstop with a bigger frame than most at his position, Johnson gets compared to Gunnar Henderson. The 2023 American League Rookie of the Year was more athletic as a prepster, but Johnson has similar offensive upside at the same stage. [/size]
 
from Gunnar's 2019 (P: #27) writeup
 
There's still some debate as to where Henderson will wind up defensively. Those who think Gatorade's 2019 Alabama high school player of the year can remain at shortstop believe he's an underrated athlete with a quick first step and a plus arm. Others believe he'll slow down as he fills out and necessitate a move to third base, where he'd still profile well offensively.[/size]

I read mlb pipeline, the athletic, and Baseball America and it seems to me the only reason Carter Johnson is being compared to Gunnar is because he’s a LH hitting prep SS from Alabama. Maybe the O’s do take him at #32 or wherever but he’s certainly not one of the first 5 or 6 HS names (Griffin, Rainer, Gillen, Lindsey, Lewis) that pop up.

Pipeline has him #40
Baseball America has him #38
Keith Law did have him at #28 and said this.


Carter Johnson
SS
OXFORD (AL) HS
DOB:
02-22-2006
Height:
6-2
Weight:
180
Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: R
Johnson has emerged as this year’s Colt Emerson, a high school infielder whose hit tool is his strongest attribute — and with Emerson’s tremendous start in pro ball, everyone’s looking for this year’s version. Johnson hit very well against better competition in the summer and fall but hasn’t been quite as good this spring in Alabama. He’s a shortstop now but more likely to end up at second or third.

[RichardZ]

Jake Cunningham is that broader tool set they think they can get to.  You seem to want to cross the wires here.  If you don't think the Orioles have a good approach, that's a different discussion.  I don't think we have all of the answers on Jake (or anyone early in development) but the Orioles clearly spent some time on him and his profile is similar to a lot of the profiles they seem to gravitate towards.
 
He reminds some scouts in the region of Jake Cunningham, the UNC Charlotte outfielder who was a fifth-rounder in 2023.[/size]

The difference is the Orioles paid 5th round money for Cunningham, I think, and you’re suggesting late first round money on a player with similar talents to Cunningham. You make that seem like some kind of a coup.

[Mackus]

My only other comment on the local thing (staying Draft) is that you still are relying, at some level, on the humans that scout these guys.  You don't have the same access to everyone.  National attention acts as a pointer that you can react to, but your relationships are your relationships and it's likely easier for teams to leverage relationships locally/regionally.  My guess is that's particularly true in the scouting community.

 

I agree that its easier to get eyes the on someone the closer they are, and the more times you can watch a guy and talk to people around him the clearer picture you will get.  But for anyone that is very highly nationally ranked and being considered for the top 4-5 rounds, I think that advantage reduces to almost nothing.  College games are almost all televised or at least recorded and available for scouts and high school games are basically irrelevant so all that matters for scouts are showcases and major tournaments.

 

Mid-lower tier kids who'll sign for $125k or less after Round 10 would be the type of guy I think there is a clear advantage for being local.  Not much national smoke on these guys, but if you can see them enough more than others maybe you can find someone that hasn't popped yet.  That's also the exact profile of 3 of the 4 local kids Philly took in the one spot check I did (the 4th being a zero-profile guy who went in the 9th round and signed for nothing solely to generate more pool money to throw at others), for as little support as one quick example can give.

[dude]

What does unique mean? There’s about 7 guys on MLB pipeline’s top 30 with 60 grade power or better. Condon and Caglione have 70 power. When only one or two guys grade out that high, I’d call that a unique tool. Tommy White is a very good college hitter with plus power in college who is overly aggressive. He’s most likely a 1B so lots of pressure on that bat. I bet Vaughn and Torkelson were graded even better coming out of the draft.

 

I think maybe you're reading too much into my use of the word "unique".  I'm not suggesting nobody else has Power or His Power.

 

Players with projected, usable In Game power are unique.  I look at him with a slightly better profile than a guy like Pete Alonso.  You have to get to it.  Tork was 1-1 and "was ready to hit in the middle of a ML lineup now" and they just sent him back to AAA.  I think there's something going wrong in DET with how they coach hitting so I'm not putting all of that on Tork, but no matter who you draft, you have to try and get to the Tools, it's a question of what Tools you start with and some level of Risk to get there. 

 

There's no risk in Speed.  Speed is the easiest tool to project.  Hit and Power are certainly more difficult.  Nobody stops you from being fast, the guy on the mound has something to say about how you hit.

 

Real Power is not a widely available tool. 

 

It sounded like White would be your pick while you acknowledge he probably doesn’t fit their draft profile.

 

I don't think he fits their draft profile at all.  I thought I was pretty clear in my comments.

[dude]

The difference is the Orioles paid 5th round money for Cunningham, I think, and you’re suggesting late first round money on a player with similar talents to Cunningham. You make that seem like some kind of a coup.

 

I'm saying he's a profile they like and as a draft eligible sophomore, you want to get him sooner than later if you think he's has the tools to move up the draft board next year.  It's all risk reward and the perspective of the kid matters.  Maybe he moves up to a top 50 kid next year.  Maybe he doesn't.  Maybe he gets hit by a car or gets eaten by a bear after a tragic hang-gliding accident.

 

If a guy is a Jr, he kind of needs to move this year because regardless of how he does his senior year, he loses a ton of leverage.

 

HSers and draft eligible sophomores have some/more opportunity to leverage.  It's only about figuring out how you can do the most with the dollars you have.

 

If you don't like his tools, don't draft him anywhere.  If you like his tools or his projection, then target and find ways to add overall value to the draft.

 

The Orioles aren't consulting me.  It's not even a prediction.  If they did exactly what I described, I get nothing and you'd still try and find some angle to throw shade, so who cares.  I'm discussing the Orioles draft on an Oriole message board.  <<thumbs up>>

[dude]

I agree that its easier to get eyes the on someone the closer they are, and the more times you can watch a guy and talk to people around him the clearer picture you will get.  But for anyone that is very highly nationally ranked and being considered for the top 4-5 rounds, I think that advantage reduces to almost nothing.  College games are almost all televised or at least recorded and available for scouts and high school games are basically irrelevant so all that matters for scouts are showcases and major tournaments.

 

I'm not sure the point you are trying to make.  The Phillies won't draft the kid until the 5th round?  OK. 

 

Teams and Players make their own priority lists for a variety of reasons.  

 

The Orioles may hate Harlin so who cares....but I doubt he's available for anyone in the 5th round.....or maybe he wants to go to college and doesn't get drafted at all.  I discussed Chase Davis (#83 in 2020) in the 2020 draft thread and he went to College and was the #22 kid last year going 1-21 to the Cards for 3.16M.  Good call (I guess) on his part.  There's some other decisions that didn't work out for the Player.  Every decision is priorities and risk management.

[RichardZ]

I'm saying he's a profile they like and as a draft eligible sophomore, you want to get him sooner than later if you think he's has the tools to move up the draft board next year.  It's all risk reward and the perspective of the kid matters.  Maybe he moves up to a top 50 kid next year.  Maybe he doesn't.  Maybe he gets hit by a car or gets eaten by a bear after a tragic hang-gliding accident.
 
If a guy is a Jr, he kind of needs to move this year because regardless of how he does his senior year, he loses a ton of leverage.
 
HSers and draft eligible sophomores have some/more opportunity to leverage.  It's only about figuring out how you can do the most with the dollars you have.
 
If you don't like his tools, don't draft him anywhere.  If you like his tools or his projection, then target and find ways to add overall value to the draft.
 
The Orioles aren't consulting me.  It's not even a prediction.  If they did exactly what I described, I get nothing and you'd still try and find some angle to throw shade, so who cares.  I'm discussing the Orioles draft on an Oriole message board.  <<thumbs up>>

You know something? You speak perfectly clear English when you’re upset. I didn’t think the Orioles were using you as a consultant. That’s somewhat comforting to know. It’s like a 100 in the sun today. You should be thanking me for the shade.

[dude]

Funny.

[dude]

I read mlb pipeline, the athletic, and Baseball America and it seems to me the only reason Carter Johnson is being compared to Gunnar is because he’s a LH hitting prep SS from Alabama. Maybe the O’s do take him at #32 or wherever but he’s certainly not one of the first 5 or 6 HS names (Griffin, Rainer, Gillen, Lindsey, Lewis) that pop up.

 

I mentioned Johnson because Bob mentioned him.  There's a whole slew of guys for consideration at #32.  Awesome.

 

I think the Law comp to Colt Emerson seems much further off than Henderson. Emerson had a fairly stable SS projection without as strong an offensive profile that he's now grown into a little.  Henderson didn't and Johnson seems a little less so, but we're biased towards Gunnar today because we've seen him become that quality of SS.  There was lots of questions of him becoming that guy prior to becoming that guy. 

 

If the Orioles think they can coax the same development out of Johnson they did with Henderson, good gracious, I hope they take him.