41 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN: The six teams that are unexpected MLB contenders in 2023

https://www.espn.com...rangers-red-sox

[Slidemaster]

This paragraph is annoying.

Why they could fade: The Orioles might benefit from the new scheduling formula more than any other team in the majors. But while the frequency of their encounters with division foes Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto is diminished, that's still the biggest chunk of the schedule. And they still have to jostle with those teams -- all legit contenders -- for playoff slots. Even in this era of bloated playoff formats, you still can't squeeze in five teams from the same division. Someone will get left out. As encouraging as the Orioles' improvement has been, are they really any better than one of those four teams, if they all are healthy-ish and hitting their projections?

They literally just finished saying how the Orioles start looks sustainable and that this performance looks legitimate, and then immediately go on to say how they really aren't any better than anyone else in the division, and will miss the playoffs. 12 games over on May 15th ain't what it used to be.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Rangers contending after major FA investments the last two years, how intriguing 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This paragraph is annoying.

They literally just finished saying how the Orioles start looks sustainable and that this performance looks legitimate, and then immediately go on to say how they really aren't any better than anyone else in the division, and will miss the playoffs. 12 games over on May 15th ain't what it used to be.

Annoying? Sure. But what did they say that isn't fairly accurate?

[Slidemaster]

Annoying? Sure. But what did they say that isn't fairly accurate?

It just still feels like they believe the O's are pretenders, and obviously they do if they believe they will miss the playoffs.

[makoman]

It just still feels like they believe the O's are pretenders, and obviously they do if they believe they will miss the playoffs.

I feel like so many people, including many on this board, seem to constantly forget that they have like 90some wins in their last 162.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I feel like so many people, including many on this board, seem to constantly forget that they have like 90some wins in their last 162.

Believe I saw that the Os finished their 162nd game yesterday with Adley in uniform and they were 93-69. I could be off on the record by a game or two but it was definitely 90+

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think believing a team in the ALE is going to miss the playoffs is as much as thinking a team are pretenders rather the top clubs top to bottom. As the article said you can't squeeze 5 playoffs teams out of one division.

[BSLMikeLowe]

So there was, by design, a "why they could fade" section on all 6 of those teams. That all they could come up with for the Orioles is based on something that has nothing to do with the team or any of the players is something I would actually feel pretty good about. If they were picking the team apart and saying certain things are unsustainable, then that would be more of an indication that they think they're pretenders.

 

But if all of TB/BOS/TOR/NYY play lights out the rest of the season and the Orioles keep playing well but come up just short....well, those are the breaks. Doesn't mean they were pretenders though.

[hallas]

It just still feels like they believe the O's are pretenders, and obviously they do if they believe they will miss the playoffs.

I think the gist of the message - that the bar is really high if we have to play the 74% win rate Rays more than everyone else, and no one in the division has a losing record - is on point. ALC and West teams get to play Oakland and KC more than everyone else. The division is stacked enough that we could be the 5th best team in baseball and miss the playoffs.

[bmore_ken]

This paragraph is annoying.

They literally just finished saying how the Orioles start looks sustainable and that this performance looks legitimate, and then immediately go on to say how they really aren't any better than anyone else in the division, and will miss the playoffs. 12 games over on May 15th ain't what it used to be.

Weak early schedule and no improvement to the rotation in the offseason. They're getting it done right now, but not improving the rotation will show in August. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Weak early schedule and no improvement to the rotation in the offseason. They're getting it done right now, but not improving the rotation will show in August.

Again, Ill ask, how far are the Os going to fall sir. You love to pound your chest about being right but never define what you mean. Is falling off 85 wins? 80 wins? 75 wins? Lower? You tell me.

[Mike in STL]

They are 25ish% of the way through the season. In football terms they just finished week 4. A lot of ball left to play. 

 

I predicted 74 wins. Meaning they would need to finish 48-74 (.393 win% the rest of the way). 

 

.393 is about a 63, 64 win team. Just about a 100 loss team, which you have to try to lose 100 games. That doesn't seems to be what they are doing anymore. 

 

I think the Orioles are definitely going over my prediction.

 

For the Orioles to finish right at .500 means finishing 56-66 (.459 the rest of the way)

 

.459 is about a 74-75 win team. 

 

I think they will end up around .500, maybe a shade over. Happy to wrong about my original prediction, but don't think the 104 win pace is sustainable for the next 75% of the season. 

[JStruds]

They are 25ish% of the way through the season. In football terms they just finished week 4. A lot of ball left to play.

I predicted 74 wins. Meaning they would need to finish 48-74 (.393 win% the rest of the way).

.393 is about a 63, 64 win team. Just about a 100 loss team, which you have to try to lose 100 games. That doesn't seems to be what they are doing anymore.

I think the Orioles are definitely going over my prediction.

For the Orioles to finish right at .500 means finishing 56-66 (.459 the rest of the way)

.459 is about a 74-75 win team.

I think they will end up around .500, maybe a shade over. Happy to wrong about my original prediction, but don't think the 104 win pace is sustainable for the next 75% of the season.

I called 87 wins primarily based on expectations that Gunnar and GRod would contribute to at least a four win improvement plus understanding the more balanced schedule meant fewer tough ALE games. .500 from here on makes me Nostradamus. I hope they do better.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I predicted 77-85. Today that seems quite low by looking at the standings. But my eye test thinks they might be a handful of games better than that but not an 88 win team getting in the playoffs.

[hallas]

Again, Ill ask, how far are the Os going to fall sir. You love to pound your chest about being right but never define what you mean. Is falling off 85 wins? 80 wins? 75 wins? Lower? You tell me.

 

I guess the issue that ESPN is (rightly) pointing out is that, depending on how things shake out, you may not have to fall off much for the O's to miss the playoffs.

 

If we're 3rd or 4th in the division with 93 wins and miss the playoffs (definitely a possibility with the AL West looking decent while getting to play the A's for 13 games a year...) I'd probably call that a successful year and just cry about division imbalances.

[Mackus]

I think I was at 78 or so before the year. If I could change today I'd up it to around 86. Fears of a total bottom out of all the 2022 overachievement have been abated, but still not sure I see enough pitching to be much better than 500 from here on out.

They did a lot of heavy lifting early so that'll help keep the entire season exciting and be in position to really make a similar later season surge matter.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Cop out answer is my projected win total from here depends on the trade deadline aggression 

[bmore_ken]

Cop out answer is my projected win total from here depends on the trade deadline aggression 

I think there's a lot of truth there. 

[dude]

So there was, by design, a "why they could fade" section on all 6 of those teams. That all they could come up with for the Orioles is based on something that has nothing to do with the team or any of the players is something I would actually feel pretty good about. If they were picking the team apart and saying certain things are unsustainable, then that would be more of an indication that they think they're pretenders.

 

This.