440 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think the field of available players is nearly as wide open as you seem to be suggesting.  We know every name in MLB.  We know every service and contract status.  We know current record and approach of FO.  We know salary conditions for every team. 

 

I'm not saying there can't be surprises, but I do this for all 30 teams all the time.  These aren't great mysteries.

The list of available players is almost as long as the list of players in baseball. Is all a matter of cost.

[jamesdean]

With so much parity in the sport now and so many play-off positions available at that level of mediocrity, I doubt too many teams will be unloading players to begin a rebuild.  Then again, some teams, including the Orioles, might be looking for that one impact player to get them over the hump.  I'm still not entirely convinced that Elias has complete control over trades or free agent signings involving big money players.  If they obtain anyone, it will be the Gibson types for pitching and maybe another hitter like Hicks. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

See I see this a little differently. With so many teams in the running for the playoffs, and the key word running, more teams will be looking to improve their clubs. Its no longer about getting rid of players who don't fit your future picture or rebuilding or ..... Most teams are going to have excess depth in one or more areas while being weak in other areas.

 

To me this opens up a lot of potential trade partners. Just need to find the one that has an extra solid 1B/DH bat but needs middle infield or OF help. etc. Same with pitching. I am not buying that there won't be good pieces available.

[Mackus]

See I see this a little differently. With so many teams in the running for the playoffs, and the key word running, more teams will be looking to improve their clubs. Its no longer about getting rid of players who don't fit your future picture or rebuilding or ..... Most teams are going to have excess depth in one or more areas while being weak in other areas.

 

To me this opens up a lot of potential trade partners. Just need to find the one that has an extra solid 1B/DH bat but needs middle infield or OF help. etc. Same with pitching. I am not buying that there won't be good pieces available.

 

Not sure I see talent for talent swaps being used very frequently, but its an interesting idea.  The Brewers and Padres did this last year with the Hader trade, so there is some recent precedent.

 

Whether they happen or not, I agree with you that "no good pieces available" is not an excuse for the front office this July.  Its either a lie, which is the most likely case, or even if its true then its still their fault for not having added in the offseason pre-emptively when many good pieces were available for the low cost of just cash and not highly valuable prospects.

 

If the front office doesn't add and add significantly, then they've failed.  No grey areas.  The exact genesis of the failure is a bit open to interpretation, but all must agree that it would be a failure.  Team on the field could still achieve in spite of the lack of support from above the field, just like they have the past two seasons now.

[You Play to Win the Game]

See I see this a little differently. With so many teams in the running for the playoffs, and the key word running, more teams will be looking to improve their clubs. Its no longer about getting rid of players who don't fit your future picture or rebuilding or ..... Most teams are going to have excess depth in one or more areas while being weak in other areas.

 

To me this opens up a lot of potential trade partners. Just need to find the one that has an extra solid 1B/DH bat but needs middle infield or OF help. etc. Same with pitching. I am not buying that there won't be good pieces available.

I mean, we were one of those "so many teams in the running" last year, and decided to sell. Let's see how many other soulless, heartless GM's there are out there this July who are in the hunt, but decide this isn't their time.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Every trade in the history of sports was to make a team better. Whether that meant more talent today, more talent controllable talent down the road, or even in the case of a salary dump to open up payroll flexibility down the road. To make the team better.

 

Now that may or may not be true for teams with owners like the O's.

[dude]

The list of available players is almost as long as the list of players in baseball. Is all a matter of cost.

 

This isn't an exercise in Theory.  This is Application.

I'm not sure why you're committed to the 0% cases in discussion, but whatever.  Don't think the look ever gets better.

 

The MLB Trade Site thingy (I haven't checked if they still do this) used to not let you "trade for" Mike Trout, because every goofball out there would want to show how he's smart enough to get Mike Trout....and Mike Trout would be traded to all 29 other teams 1000s of times and it's dumb.  Trout isn't getting traded..

 

This is Cost of Availability^TM and it's the way all of it works.  If you want to death grip some theoretical notion (for whatever silly reasons) OK, but that's completely out of context of the reality of what reasonably can (and may) happen.  We know the drivers for all of these things.  If you don't, or you don't think anyone else could possibly know, I don't know what to tell you, it's really not that hard.  

[dude]

 I am not buying that there won't be good pieces available.

 

We can discuss every player on every team.  Where do you want to start?  We've discussed Ohtani.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This isn't an exercise in Theory.  This is Application.

I'm not sure why you're committed to the 0% cases in discussion, but whatever.  Don't think the look ever gets better.

 

The MLB Trade Site thingy (I haven't checked if they still do this) used to not let you "trade for" Mike Trout, because every goofball out there would want to show how he's smart enough to get Mike Trout....and Mike Trout would be traded to all 29 other teams 1000s of times and it's dumb.  Trout isn't getting traded..

 

This is Cost of Availability^TM and it's the way all of it works.  If you want to death grip some theoretical notion (for whatever silly reasons) OK, but that's completely out of context of the reality of what reasonably can (and may) happen.  We know the drivers for all of these things.  If you don't, or you don't think anyone else could possibly know, I don't know what to tell you, it's really not that hard.  

Of course the reality of what could actually happen is a much smaller list that every player on every team. My point was just to counter the notion that nobody any good will be available. That's nonsense.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

We can discuss every player on every team.  Where do you want to start?  We've discussed Ohtani.

Too early. Things will have much more potential come July. Besides its really an academic exercise. Pick any player. And there are smart enough guys on here to say why it could happen. And equally smart guys to say why its not possible.

 

Because none of us have the information that the front offices do. But it is entertaining and can provide some reasonable things that the FO could do. So when they don't its another data point on how the ship is being run OR if they pull a rabbit out of the hat then that's a data point too but with a way different message!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Lol at no one taking dude bait. But yeah, it pretty much is too early.

[Pedro Cerrano]

My buddy BUILT a trade

Anderson giolito Hendricks for hjerstad povich westburg

[mdrunning]

See I see this a little differently. With so many teams in the running for the playoffs, and the key word running, more teams will be looking to improve their clubs. Its no longer about getting rid of players who don't fit your future picture or rebuilding or ..... Most teams are going to have excess depth in one or more areas while being weak in other areas.

 

To me this opens up a lot of potential trade partners. Just need to find the one that has an extra solid 1B/DH bat but needs middle infield or OF help. etc. Same with pitching. I am not buying that there won't be good pieces available.

It opens up more trade possibilities, but with more teams "contending" due to the expanded playoffs, it could also mean more teams chasing whatever talent might become available as the deadline approaches. As with free agency, a limited supply and more teams pursuing what's out there, that puts upward pressure on the price of said talent.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

It opens up more trade possibilities, but with more teams "contending" due to the expanded playoffs, it could also mean more teams chasing whatever talent might become available as the deadline approaches. As with free agency, a limited supply and more teams pursuing what's out there, that puts upward pressure on the price of said talent.

Well for sure but if the O's truly have built such a deep and talented farm system then we have the pieces more so than other teams. Not to mention a ton of room on the payroll.

[dude]

My buddy BUILT a trade

Anderson giolito Hendricks for hjerstad povich westburg

 

This wasn't initially intended a general trade thread, but why not.

 

Mackus mentioned something like this too.

 

I'd guess it doesn't work.  I think they'd want more for Giolito today.  That may be an unreasonable, but I think it's an unreasonable ask.

 

I don't know what CWS are doing with Anderson.  He's been terrible so far but they don't really have the next option, now.  Anderson works as a good bridge (2024 option) to Colson Montgomery (kind of similar to Holliday situation).  I don't think White Sox care about the money so if the Dodgers wanted him, they'd probably just eat whatever they had to to get something back.  If we're buying that Anderson has some upside over Mateo, ok. Not sure I buy that, but ok.  If we're using his salary to offset value for Giolito, ok. 

 

Same thing for Hendricks.  Great story and we know it with Trey.....but I wouldn't expect him to really be back until next year. But ignore all of that because according to COTs, he has a 15M buyout on his 15M 2024 option, which gets guaranteed in a trade.  You can always work around stuff (CWS could just execute the deferred buyout to make some type of trade happen) but that thing is an anchor in that deal.  That's a huge chip if you wanted to try and work something like Cease, so in the world of "what can you do", there's things you can do (we should agree it won't be the Orioles).

 

So neither Anderson or Hendricks are much of 2023 help (viewed from today). 

 

Giolito was below league average last year (ERA+ 86) and he hasn't been great this year (107).  With all 3 guys you are looking for performance from 2-3 years ago.  I don't specifically have a problem with that but I'd guess there are better places to put the better chips this year.

[dude]

I will say this.  There's a lot to work with around the White Sox, if you wanted.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I will believe a big move to win now from Elias when I see it, and if I do see it, I will be delighted and shocked. Not holding my breath

[dude]

Bullpen thought.  Again, maybe "Bullpen" needs it's own trade thread, whatever.  Here for now.  Also again, I think it's fair to question whether there's energy for anything to happen sooner than later. Lots of discussion on the bullpen and I don't think you really need to do anything.  We may not trust guys today, but everyone in every/any bullpen is a month from looking good or not good.  It's all small sample stuff.

 

Someone mentioned Chapman and Barlow for the Royals and with 17 wins and clearly going nowhere this year, they may be a team interested in making a move.

 

If we wanted to change out some bullpen opportunity, Chapman versus Cionel would feel like a good move.

 

I'm not sure Barlow is the best fit (I don't like taking guys closing and assuming they'll be as good in setup role), but Taylor Clarke would seem like a really good fit.  Pitching well this year, he's essentially (at 30) a 2 year older version of Tate., but Tate is scuffling in rehab and Clarke has solid numbers.

 

Voth is a guy probably not going to get the time he needs in Baltimore, but could pitch more on a struggling KC team and get some value back.  They'll want more, so buying low on Stowers is probably good for them and he again can just get his time in RF for the rest of the season and try to get his feet under him. KC should probably get something else modest in the deal and if they want something a little better, they have a CompBal pick (2-66) I'm always willing to trade for. 

I won't include Jean Pinto because it makes Bob sad.

 

So....[Chapman and Clarke] for [Voth, Perez, Tate, Stowers, something]

 

KC could look to rehab some value out of Voth/Perez/Tate and trade at the deadline or use them as better layered, multi-year options.  Stowers plays RF now+.

[Hooded Viper]

My Eduardo Rodriguez watch, 4-4, with a 2.13 ERA. The Tigers, after today’s loss, are now five under 500. I would really love to bring this guy back to the O’s!

[BobPhelan]

My Eduardo Rodriguez watch, 4-4, with a 2.13 ERA. The Tigers, after today’s loss, are now five under 500. I would really love to bring this guy back to the O’s!

He’s hurt, out for at least 5-6 weeks.