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Jeff Passan: How the Orioles Became a Contender


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#41 Mike in STL

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:38 PM

I need some clarification on what is tldr?

 

Is it the 654 words 2035 used over three straight posts to criticize Dude, or the 502 words Dude responded with in one post? 


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#42 JoyinMudville

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:44 PM

Which guys wouldn't we have on this roster?  This isn't a debate, I'm pointing out facts.

 

Carlos Correa in Houston wasn't a product of rebuilding either.  The Astros were a middling team in 2011 that lost their ass (not as bad as the 2018 Orioles) and Luhnow and company showed up with the 1-1 pick in hand.

 

The 2020 RedSox (1-4 in 2021 draft) weren't trying to lose and wound up worse that the Orioles (1-5) and had the opportunity to select Marcleo Mayer (who many people think should have been 1-1).  If he becomes a star, great, do the most with whatever opportunity you are presented, but it's not like they wanted or were trying to make him the point of the 2021 draft.

 

In the same vein, the Pirates hot start has some pundits/FO claiming the same 'progression from rebuilding' and their roster has nothing to do with it either. 


Adley was a 1st round pick in 2019, Henderson drafted 2019

 

We picked up Mateo off of waivers in 2021

 

Urias was claimed off of waivers in 2020

 

That's four that I can think of off the top of my head and all done during the 'rebuild'



#43 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:51 PM

Hi Mikey poo. I hope you counted the actual number of words from the posts above vs just using random numbers to uh.... get me I guess?? That would be great. Someone tell me it was really 654- 502.

#44 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:52 PM

I'll make some other comments re: Adley... 

 

This article talks about this and I wanted to wrap a couple of points into it.

 

1) I am a big fan of Adley and his profile.  It's my preference that he plays his entire career in Baltimore and that the Orioles All-Time Top5 becomes a Top6.  I wouldn't throw a season to get a top5 (or 1-1), but if you put a gun to my head and made me lose to get a profile, it would be Adley's.  Anything/everything else you can more or less get. Switch-hitting catchers with power/on-base, elite defense and dynamic Leadership is a pretty thin group in MLB History. 

 

2) You don't have to have Adley to win.  That's not mean, it's reality.  I want the best team I can get and he's a different cat...but no one player has been the catalyst for any series of consecutive Championships.  Getting a .700 +/- OPS catcher isn't the hardest thing in the world.  The other things exist, but not in the same package.  The Orioles posted the best record in the AL for 5 years and they didn't have Adley. Unless the Orioles win the next 5 Championships (hey, let's hope) and then wherever he goes next wins every Championship too.  So teams without Adley will win Championships.  Again, it's laughable that (this article, others) act like his mere presence has impacted the result by ~41 WAR over the last year.  Since no-one would actually say they believe that, something other than just the [Talent of this catcher] produces results.  The Oiroles have won before.  Other Teams will likely win.  I want him on my Team for his career (see #1) but we aren't screwed if he leaves after 5 more years (or sooner if traded), you just have to figure out the next roster, whatever that is.  If he was never an Oriole, we'd still need to figure out the roster.  Win Now, Win Later.  Show up every night and play your ass off.  Make the Playoffs and get hot.  With or without Adley.  The LAA have 2 of the best and most unique players in the History of MLB and they don't have a Playoff series win.  It's always more than one player.

 

3) Draft last.  I'm glad we got Adley in 2019.  I wouldn't throw 2018 to get him in 2019. For those that like winning now, are you lamenting not getting a 1-1 in 2024? Are we doomed because we're drafting 17th this year?  Couldn't care less about the top of this draft class.  Get the best Talent you can (assessment/development) and leverage every opportunity, there's lots of ways to get Talent.  I'm never lamenting losing out on one Talent no matter how good because if you're winning, you're winning, just keep doing that then who cares about early picks. 

DRAFT LAST.  



#45 JoyinMudville

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:52 PM

Stowers and Ortiz drafted in 2019 although I guess the verdict is still out on both

 

Tyler Wells was a rule 5 pick in 2020 .

 

It's pretty obvious that the current roster is largely the product of a rebuild.

 

If you don't want to call it a rebuild it is just a fact that in 2019 Elias came on board and focused on the farm system and the 'infrastructure' of the club and wasn't as concerned with a winning product at the major league level. Furthermore he stated that the organizational strategy was to build a perennial contender from the ground up via the draft, an increased emphasis on international signings, and player development.

 

As far as I am concerned, the guy deserves an enormous amount of credit.



#46 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:53 PM


Adley was a 1st round pick in 2019, Henderson drafted 2019

We picked up Mateo off of waivers in 2021

Urias was claimed off of waivers in 2020

That's four that I can think of off the top of my head and all done during the 'rebuild'

Get your popcorn ready sir. Youre in for the dude ride.

#47 JoyinMudville

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:55 PM

You are able to acquire and develop a player like Jorge Mateo because you dont have a veteran SS here both taking payroll and playing time away from him. He was on waivers from SD when we picked him up because they were going for it. They didnt have the room for him. Yout think teams that are competing dont see some guys on waivers and say I wouldnt mind taking a flyer on him if we had room on the active roster or if we didnt already have a SS making a lot of money and penciled into our lineup. He makes it seem like the logistics of acquiring and developing some of these players is easy. Its not


When you're right, you're right



#48 JoyinMudville

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:56 PM

Get your popcorn ready sir. Youre in for the dude ride.

I've known Dude all the way back to the Syd Thrift years. I'm ready for what's coming my way! I'm just not buying it



#49 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 09:58 PM


When you're right, you're right

We will get along at least 50% of the time going forward

#50 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 10:10 PM

Adley was a 1st round pick in 2019, ...

 

I want to separate this one and it's why a wrote #44.  I have more...but I can stop too.  

 

That wasn't a "rebuilding" pick.  That doesn't mean Elias doesn't get credit for making it (although everyone would) or development (I don't think development is/was unique).



#51 Mike in STL

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 11:10 PM

Hi Mikey poo. I hope you counted the actual number of words from the posts above vs just using random numbers to uh.... get me I guess?? That would be great. Someone tell me it was really 654- 502.

Ever use Word? The bottom line tells you how many words you have typed. Cut. Paste. 30 seconds of my life I won't get back thats for sure. But more fun, and shorter than it would have taken to read your diatribe. 


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#52 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 11:36 PM

Sure thing bro

#53 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 11:41 PM

It's pretty obvious that the current roster is largely the product of a rebuild.

 

You seem to be moving the goalposts.

 

The Draft, the waiver wire and the Rule 5 draft are all available to every team.

 

The notion that you can't use those opportunities when you are competitive is nonsense.  The Dodgers have more wins than anyone over the last decade, and pursued modest, opportunity guys like Muncy, Taylor, Turner and recently Evan Phillips (yes, that Evan Phillips) who is their closer.  The Orioles have done it with guys like Miguel Gonzales and Steve Pearce.  Teams do it routinely.

 

Saturday night you had 2 of the 3 best records in MLB and the Game is decided in the 8th inning on Coulombe (couldn't make Twins roster) versus Kevin Pillar (nobody wanted).

 

Do we think the Orioles will (should?) stop drafting, using the waiver wire and Rule 5 just because they win more games?

 

Every team gets to decide how they want to use the roster rules of MLB. Roster success is based on your ability to identify, acquire and develop Talent.  You don't need top 5 picks over 3 years to accomplish that.



#54 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 11:55 PM

Uh oh I think dude has exceeded me word count now. Inevitable of course.

#55 weird-O

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 08:48 AM


Adley was a 1st round pick in 2019, Henderson drafted 2019

 

We picked up Mateo off of waivers in 2021

 

Urias was claimed off of waivers in 2020

 

That's four that I can think of off the top of my head and all done during the 'rebuild'

Respectfully, aside from AR, the other 3 examples actually support Dude's argument. Mateo and Urias could have been claimed by the O's, even if they'd won the world series the seasons before they were claimed. I suppose they could have been picked up by another team that was ahead of the O's on the waiver wire order. But that's unlikely, since both players were tossed around and were generally unwanted. Henderson went 2-1, so the world series champion O's could have had him with their 1st round pick. 


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#56 Mackus

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 08:58 AM

Respectfully, aside from AR, the other 3 examples actually support Dude's argument. Mateo and Urias could have been claimed by the O's, even if they'd won the world series the seasons before they were claimed. I suppose they could have been picked up by another team that was ahead of the O's on the waiver wire order. But that's unlikely, since both players were tossed around and were generally unwanted. Henderson went 2-1, so the world series champion O's could have had him with their 1st round pick. 

 

dude said 2019 WS champs.  Rutschman and Henderson would've already been drafted before then.  So he's right about all of them technically.  

 

Now, there would be very little room for both Mateo and Urias to be claimed and added to contending teams in 2020 and 2021.  So its impractical that they'd both be here, maybe even either.  Also impractical for Mateo to have gotten the long run he did while hitting terribly, so if that amount of playing time is what it took to see the light turn on, then it likely doesn't happen here if we're trying to compete those seasons.  But for all of the above, the opportunity to acquire them certainly would've existed.



#57 weird-O

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 09:17 AM

dude said 2019 WS champs.  Rutschman and Henderson would've already been drafted before then.  So he's right about all of them technically.  

 

Now, there would be very little room for both Mateo and Urias to be claimed and added to contending teams in 2020 and 2021.  So its impractical that they'd both be here, maybe even either.  Also impractical for Mateo to have gotten the long run he did while hitting terribly, so if that amount of playing time is what it took to see the light turn on, then it likely doesn't happen here if we're trying to compete those seasons.  But for all of the above, the opportunity to acquire them certainly would've existed.

I didn't read Dude's post. I assumed it was another one of his epic rants about how much he hates rebuilding. Otherwise, it sounds like a debate about a series of if/then scenarios.     


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#58 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 09:33 AM

Respectfully, aside from AR, the other 3 examples actually support Dude's argument. Mateo and Urias could have been claimed by the O's, even if they'd won the world series the seasons before they were claimed. I suppose they could have been picked up by another team that was ahead of the O's on the waiver wire order. But that's unlikely, since both players were tossed around and were generally unwanted. Henderson went 2-1, so the world series champion O's could have had him with their 1st round pick. 

 

Yeah idk if this is Dude's exact point but I feel like a thought exercise for the tanking is how much worse off is the farm if they don't have any of the #1 picks from the 2020/21/22 drafts but still have the rest of the draft class totally unchanged

 

So 2020 would be Westburg, Mayo, etc

2021 would be Norby, etc

2022 would be Wagner, Beavers, etc

 

You keep the full 2019 draft and you keep any DD guys (Grayson/DL). 

 

That seems like it'd still be a pretty solid core of young talent, no? 


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#59 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 09:40 AM

Heres a question for the never rebuild crowd. What are you doing after the '18 season to try to contend in '19?? Bloat the roster and payroll. Awesome options. And for a team that has essentially declared itself as going to have a small to small-med payroll even if you hit on every single bloat FA or trade you still wouldnt contend with the players that were in place.

#60 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 09:51 AM

And conversely, Cowser, Kjerstad and Holliday would be the only players they’d have no chance at drafting in the organization if they had been competing since 2019. And since Cowser and Kjerstad were viewed by some as below slot picks, perhaps they could have been available depending upon how many games they were winning.






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