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Jeff Passan: How the Orioles Became a Contender


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#21 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 06 May 2023 - 05:23 PM

I'm absolutely shocked that Rodon and Stanton are injured. And while a great player, I think they'll come to regret the Judge deal in a couple of years.

Why?  They'll just increase payroll some more.



#22 CantonJester

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Posted 06 May 2023 - 05:35 PM

I'm absolutely shocked that Rodon and Stanton are injured. And while a great player, I think they'll come to regret the Judge deal in a couple of years.

 

This has been Cashman's M.O. for some time now: take on players with a checkered injured past for either pennies on the dollar or sign them to lesser deals. 

 

Why?  They'll just increase payroll some more.

 

Eh, not so sure about that. Steinbrenner actually voted to lower the threshold for the luxury tax. He does not like spending money. 



#23 dude

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Posted 06 May 2023 - 05:36 PM

The question of “how did the orioles become a winner” starts with years of intentional losing.

 

No it does not.  This team is not the product of "rebuilding".

 

If Mike Elais had showed up and won the WS in 2019, we could have the same roster today.  Maybe better.



#24 dude

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Posted 06 May 2023 - 05:46 PM

Willful ignorance is losing on purpose. Sorry but you can’t win 47 games and proclaim winning was the goal.


Sure you can. The Cards had a good team and expected to compete (even the favorites) for the NL Central. They are on a 47 win pace. There's something wrong. It's not the Talent. They have lots of Talent. Experienced stars, solid MLers, good younger players...they have anything you'd want.

It's always funny watching the narrative changes about the 2018 season.
The same thing happens/ed for the McPhail years. 2012 was supposed to start over because McPhail was bad.

The reality of that year is the same reality of this year. Performance of the Team is more than just the Talent.

What's comical about this season is that this isn't some amazing collection of Talent. You can have this level of Talent any year.

#25 JoyinMudville

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 10:29 AM

No it does not.  This team is not the product of "rebuilding".

 

If Mike Elais had showed up and won the WS in 2019, we could have the same roster today.  Maybe better.

 

That doesn't make sense. We wouldn't have had the draft picks to get the guys we currently have



#26 Mackus

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 10:34 AM


That doesn't make sense. We wouldn't have had the draft picks to get the guys we currently have

Nobody on the roster was drafted in 2020 or later. So we'd have the same players. Would have some different prospects drafting much later and with less bonus pool. Not necessarily all different guys.
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#27 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 10:51 AM


Nobody on the roster was drafted in 2020 or later. So we'd have the same players. Would have some different prospects drafting much later and with less bonus pool. Not necessarily all different guys.

You dont believe what dude said but here you are defending it

#28 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:00 PM

That doesn't make sense. We wouldn't have had the draft picks to get the guys we currently have

 

Which guys wouldn't we have on this roster?  This isn't a debate, I'm pointing out facts.

 

Carlos Correa in Houston wasn't a product of rebuilding either.  The Astros were a middling team in 2011 that lost their ass (not as bad as the 2018 Orioles) and Luhnow and company showed up with the 1-1 pick in hand.

 

The 2020 RedSox (1-4 in 2021 draft) weren't trying to lose and wound up worse that the Orioles (1-5) and had the opportunity to select Marcleo Mayer (who many people think should have been 1-1).  If he becomes a star, great, do the most with whatever opportunity you are presented, but it's not like they wanted or were trying to make him the point of the 2021 draft.

 

In the same vein, the Pirates hot start has some pundits/FO claiming the same 'progression from rebuilding' and their roster has nothing to do with it either. 



#29 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:05 PM

Rofl

#30 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:12 PM

Rofl

 

This is what you're left with when you don't actually have something to point to.



#31 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:20 PM

With you of course not. You dont argue in good faith. Ask anyone if they think Im wrong. We could get into the semantics and how dude sees things or labels things. Its beyond played out. The bottom line is youll never accept the term rebuild as its widely defined and used. Because how its widely used and defined has numerous successes. Now spend 2 hours of your life with a 2000 word rebuttal no one will read.

#32 bmore_ken

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:50 PM

 The bottom line is youll never accept the term rebuild as its widely defined and used. 

That's because he's correct. Other than AR, there's no player currently on the roster that couldn't have been(or an equivalent) had fielding a competitve team. I crack up with some of dude's fantasy trade scenarios, but on this point he's 100% correct and always has been. 



#33 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 06:18 PM

That's because he's correct. Other than AR, there's no player currently on the roster that couldn't have been(or an equivalent) had fielding a competitve team. I crack up with some of dude's fantasy trade scenarios, but on this point he's 100% correct and always has been. 

I could go through the roster and list the players that realistically wouldnt be here if we werent "rebuilding". He also can  use these terms until Westburg or Cowser or Kjerstad or are called up. Which will be happening this year for at least one of them. He will then give some other BS. Drafting is only 1 part of rebuilding. He says you can do all the other things but not really. We want Kyle Bradish we coulda had him he will say. Well not really. How often are prospects traded for prospects. You target a Kyle Bradish in a deal because you are trading a Dylan Bundy who just threw 160 innnings of league avg baseball with 2 years of team control remaining. But he will make it seem like Kyle Bradish is easily available and can be easily acquired. You are able to acquire and develop a player like Jorge Mateo because you dont have a veteran SS here both taking payroll and playing time away from him. He was on waivers from SD when we picked him up because they were going for it. They didnt have the room for him. Yout think teams that are competing dont see some guys on waivers and say I wouldnt mind taking a flyer on him if we had room on the active roster or if we didnt already have a SS making a lot of money and penciled into our lineup. He makes it seem like the logistics of acquiring and developing some of these players is easy. Its not



#34 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 06:32 PM

When you are going for it or trying to win which he wants to do all the time you end up with guys who had a track record who hit a wall. Ill find you a player or two or 3 on every "going for it" roster who is taking up a roster spot because of what they did. Not what they are doing now.  Thats bloat. Thats bloat not just on a payroll but on the roster. He often propses trades for players who end up being in the bloat category. He will champion the few times going for this type of player works out but not the times they end up as bloat. These are roster spots and development time that rebuilding teams can use on waiver claims or minor league players or AAAA players that teams going for it often cant afford to spend.  Sure, contending teams make waiver claims too. How often is it on a position player that they can afford to give time like the Os did with Mateo and Urias. Its for guys they plop on the end of their bench and usually end up dropping a week later.



#35 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 07:34 PM

And 1 final thing here. There are certainly some seasons where you might be unsure of where you stand. If you decide to go for it in those times I dont have a problem with that. I think 2018 would apply for the Os on the back end of a run. Same goes if you have a young core in place and are on the come up. Since dude decided to pick 2019 then I dont know how anyone can look at that roster at the end of '18 after the trades at the deadline and think yeah lets "go for it" in '19. Lets not sell off any more assets we may have. Lets bloat this horrible roster we do have and lets try to make a serious run at contention. Even the Mackus take of well it doesnt hurt to add 1 yr FAs and go for 70 wins vs 60 wins has flaws. Its still bloat. Especially if its a guy who is playing poorly and cant be moved at the deadline. It still is innings and a roster spot that is better used on developing a waiver claim or a minor league.

#36 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 07:54 PM

1) I'm not going to write another 20,000 words, because I've already done that.  I've done it on an island, for a long time, taking shots from many and everything I've said has proven true and I don't need to change anything I've said so reference everything I've written on the subject.  Someday I'll do a podcast and you can watch it so you don't have to read so much.

 

2) Your last 23 entries seem too coherent for you.  They (the points you entered) are easy to dismantle so I'll make the same offer I have in the past.  I don't want to debate 50 people at the same time....but anytime anyone wants to pick 2 or 3 Champions for the approach....I don't care who they are or their status (get Jeff Luhnow, he's not busy)...get top someones from Fangraphs....I don't care who you sit across from me, I will be there live and we can podcast it.  If you want me to walk through those points (above) and dismantle them, I'm ok doing that, but people seem to get upset about the discussion and "why we're doing this".  You bailed on my points about the last draft. 

Rebuilding does have a purpose, but it's not what the community of sheep believe.

 

3) I'll try and wrap all of my answers into something simple that I've said many times.  In nearly every case (I'd just say 'every case', but some people seem to get triggered by absolute language) Performance (the results of a season) is more than just Talent. Beyond that, there's more Talent available than can be employed by all 30 teams...so we are never in a position to suggest you can't have a Talented roster (the 5v12, not 1v16 argument)...so the results of any season (and we only play it once, but there could have been a range of results) are a result of something bigger than Talent.  I have my opinions about what that looks like, I've shared many times and regardless of whether anyone thinks those details are correct, the concept clearly is.  It's proven with examples from EVERY season and while this season is still very early, the returns we have today suggest it too.

 

---------

 

The roster of this team is guys that were here, waiver claims and a couple of draft picks.  I'll make some other comments re: Adley... I mean, it's comical that people think +.135 in catcher OPS is a 41 WAR difference over the last year...but the point is that if this team (in terms of Talent acquisition) can win (the actual roster) then there's no reason why you can't create opportunity in any year.

 

Winning will come down to the decisions you make in terms of Talent (the roster), your ability to develop that Talent and ultimately your ability to put 162 games together between the lines.  There are many ways to do that.  It never rests in the hands of one player and it never requires losing to accomplish.



#37 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 07:59 PM

Tldr


If anyone reads that mess and can shorten up any halfway decent, intellectually honest point he has Ill respond.

#38 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 08:05 PM

2) Your last 23 entries seem too coherent for you.  

 

Tldr

 

You can't make this stuff up.  Thanks.



#39 dude

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 08:13 PM

Let's see if you have one friend that will let you know you're getting owned and you should stop.



#40 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 08:32 PM

Have you ever shared your thoughts with Tony at OH. Im sure he and his members would love to read your salient thoughts.




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