51 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He sucks balls. People out here defending the worst player on the team. Yeah, that may change in a month. It is what it is now.

[BSLChrisStoner]

He sucks balls. People out here defending the worst player on the team. Yeah, that may change in a month. It is what it is now.

I don't get the change in a month comment. 

If he gets hot, that doesn't change who he is.
Same as being cold, doesn't change who he is either. 

 

I understand you don't like who he is overall, that's fine. 
And I agree he's always a player you are going to want to improve on overall. 

I also agree with Mackus that he has value. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hes literally the worst player on the team by WAR right now. Hence, the that may change in a month comment.


My perception is he has always been overrated by a lot of Os fans.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hes literally the worst player on the team by WAR right now. Hence, the that may change in a month comment

That's just being a prisoner to the moment though.  His WAR over a month doesn't change who he is.  

And the same point would be correct if he was leading the team in WAR with some monster April.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I don’t think I realized just how streaky he is. And with that being the case, to channel Jim Hunter, feels like he’s due to break out here any time. We could use it.

[CantonJester]

I don't get the change in a month comment. 

If he gets hot, that doesn't change who he is.
Same as being cold, doesn't change who he is either. 

 

I understand you don't like who he is overall, that's fine. 
And I agree he's always a player you are going to want to improve on overall. 

I also agree with Mackus that he has value. 

 

Santander’s value to a winning team would be to start at DH vs LHSP. His hit profile isn’t nearly good enough to continue to waste OF replacements on his glove close & late. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I get all that. My only thing is lower what you think he is if you reall think hes an above avg hitter. That 118 OPS+ last year is fools gold

[Mackus]

Mike Baumann has a higher WAR than Adley Rutschman right now.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Apples to oranges. Pitchers vs position players.

[Mackus]

That's a flaw, but not the fatal flaw in your argument. The duration is the bigger sin.

[makoman]

Citing WAR in April is silly. He’s had numerous 900 OPS months. If he was hot we’d be saying hold up, it’s only one month.

I say that as someone who would be fine whenever they decide to replace him.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its 17% of the season. At what point do we read anything into anything. I mean we all understand things can and will change. Hes been one of the worst regulars in baseball for a month.


I think both of you know he isnt 15% or more better than the league offensively too.

[NewMarketSean]

I still don't think he's very good, or a longterm piece here, but I want to see how he does when the weather warms up and the ball starts carrying before I kick him to the curb for good.

 

In last 7 games hes .250 AVG, .500 SLG. Maybe he's starting to get warm.

 

This offense needs him to get going. He's supposed to be the power hitter in it. If he doesn't provide that he has no use.

[Mackus]

Its 17% of the season. At what point do we read anything into anything. I mean we all understand things can and will change. Hes been one of the worst regulars in baseball for a month.


I think both of you know he isnt 15% or more better than the league offensively too.

Longer the track record the more rope you get. Santander has about 3 full year equivalents of being above average. I said another 4 weeks in the initial response to the article. He'd need to have about that much more of a struggle for me to make a move to Stowers. Obviously some wiggle room depending on how well Stowers and Cowser do as well as both Santander and Hays.

[Mackus]

Also just to point out, I think he may have already exited his ice cold streak. Not hot, but he's 243/302/432 since April 18th.

[makoman]

Per fangraphs, last year DHs hit 245/319/413 and RF hit 240/308/403 in all MLB.

 

This year it’s DHs 244/321/414 and RF 242/318/405.

 

If he’s like the 243 career hitter that he’s been that’s perfectly normal. If he’s last year’s 318 OBP that’s also perfectly normal, though that may be optimistic. His career SLG is 449 and that’s also more than fine. He’s obviously had a rough start and isn’t there for any of these, though the time since April 18 that Mackus pointed out is pretty close to ok. But unless you think he’s dropped off a cliff at 28 he’s much more “adequate starter you’d like to improve on” and less “sucks balls.”

 

The best hope is either that he himself starts hitting or Stowers hits enough to start taking some time. Or if you can wait a couple months maybe Cowser continues to hit and some combo of Cowser/Hays/Stowers gets the corners.

[mweb08]

He absolutely deserves more time given the track record and as a couple people have pointed out, he has been hitting better of late after his ice cold start.

As far as his historical WAR, his defense is what holds that back. I'd certainly be happy with him DHing more often and occasionally playing first as long as he can do so adequately.

Speaking of that last part, Mountcastle's playing time shouldn't be totally safe either given his lack of production since his epic night. I don't mean to suggest that he should see a drastic reduction, but a few of his plate appearances can be dispersed to allow for Stowers for instance to get a legit amount of time without taking too much time from Anthony or Austin. Frazier is the more obvious target for playing time reduction to open up opportunity for others though.

[BSLBenPalmer]

Its 17% of the season. At what point do we read anything into anything.

To answer this question - it depends on which stats you're talking about. I've actually written a bit about when certain stats statistically stabilize. Strikeout rate tends to stabilize ~35 games in, wOBA starts to stabilize ~70 games in, ERA virtually never stabilizes (which makes sense since ERA is much more descriptive than it is predictive), FIP stabilizes ~50 games in. Worth noting that all of this is on a team level rather than an individual level, but I'd imagine the relationship is similar.

So the point of all that is to say, sample sizes aren't really big enough for us to really read into anyone's stats until arguably mid-May to June.

And the point of the article is to say, there are some reasons to be concerned about Santander (his plate discipline) but it's also not time to panic, it's still early.

Also I think it's a little silly to say Santander is a horrible defender. I mean, the guy had +5 DRS in 2019 and +8 DRS in 2020 (the year he was a Gold Glove finalist). He's significantly better in RF than LF (+3 DRS last year in RF and -8 DRS in LF), so I think as long as he stays in RF, he's a perfectly fine defender.

[makoman]

Re: stabilization of various stats, this is over 10 years old but I assume it's still relevant. I note that his 107 PAs is below the threshold for most things.

 

https://library.fang...es/sample-size/

[NewMarketSean]

Does Santander have options?