323 replies to this topic

[CantonJester]

Agree. He's already cost himself millions he'll never get back, even with the 3% commission he'd owe an agent, who if he had one undoubtedly never would have let him play in 2021, one season removed from an MVP award, for just $1.7M. This just feels to me like Lamar will keep doubling-down on his mistakes to chase a Pyrrhic victory somewhere down the road.

 

The only way this ends well for the Ravens is if some team saves the day by giving Lamar what he wants and agreeing to compensate the Ravens something approximating at least two 1st Rd picks.

 

 

Also, the thing that just doesn't get enough ink is how much teams love (prefer?) rookie QB contracts. Any of the four big QBs that get drafted next month and stumble in their rookie season could help create a market for Lamar as well. 

[Mackus]

Agree. He's already cost himself millions he'll never get back

 

Very possible he has.  But he also gave him self a chance to max it out.  That's the constant trade off, you either decide to lock in as much as you can up front or you gamble by going year-to-year which either allows you to maximize your earnings or you could end up making less.

 

I heard a comparison to Josh Allen today in terms of cash made to date, saying that this is money Lamar can never make up, and its a really bad argument.

 

Firstly, Allen's rookie deal was worth about $12M more than Lamar's based on draft position, $21.4M to $9.4M.  No decisions by either one of them led to that.  Through their first 3 years, Allen had been paid $17.9M compared to $7.7M for Lamar.  That's $10M Lamar was behind but not because he or anybody did anything wrong.  Allen signed at that point, an extension that tacked 6 years onto the remaining year plus 5th year option on his rookie deal.  Obviously Lamar hasn't gone that path.  In the two years since, Allen has gotten paid $67M in salary and bonuses.  Jackson has made $24.8M in these two seasons on his final year and 5th year option.  So that's about $42M less to date for Lamar because of his decision to not extend after 2020.  That's huge.  But it would absolutely be made up entirely, if Lamar signs now.

 

Between salary and bonuses, Allen will earn $1.58M (not a typo) in 2023, $30M in 2024, $39.5M in 2025, $38.5M in 2026, $40M in 2027, and $41.5M in 2028.  As of now, only $47.08M of those payouts are guaranteed (all 2023 & 2024 money), the rest of the $191M is not guaranteed.  All numbers from overthecap.

 

So if Lamar signed today for 6/$235M, with $90M guaranteed, he'd end up ahead of Allen until/unless Allen signs a new deal.  Does anyone doubt that Lamar has been offered such a deal?  The reported deal from the Ravens was for more total and guaranteed dollars and was only over 5 years. 

 

Fair to say Lamar is making a mistake by not taking the biggest deal he's been offered by the Ravens.  It was a huge offer.  But its flat wrong for people to say that Lamar will never make back the money he hasn't earned that Allen got because he decided to sign.  That ignores the obvious huge lump sum of the bonus that comes with such deals.  Lamar will earn enough on a new deal to more than make up for the current gap between he and Allen in career earnings.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Very possible he has.  But he also gave him self a chance to max it out.  That's the constant trade off, you either decide to lock in as much as you can up front or you gamble by going year-to-year which either allows you to maximize your earnings or you could end up making less.

 

What this doesn't account for is that if Lamar had signed a 5-year deal before 2021 for what was then-market rate for an MVP,  he'd have been back on the open market again as an UFA at 29 years old. One would expect that assuming health and productivity didn't drop off he'd be in line for another huge, maybe record-setting contract. Now the best case scenario is he'll be 31 when he's up for his third contract, and even that seems unlikely at this point. The money he turned down on the front end of his career may not be made up on the back end strictly due to the timing and his age.

[Mackus]

What this doesn't account for is that if Lamar had signed a 5-year deal before 2021 for what was then-market rate for an MVP, he'd have been back on the open market again as an UFA at 29 years old. One would expect that assuming health and productivity didn't drop off he'd be in line for another huge, maybe record-setting contract. Now the best case scenario is he'll be 31 when he's up for his third contract, and even that seems unlikely at this point. The money he turned down on the front end of his career may not be made up on the back end strictly due to the timing and his age.

Doubt he'd have signed only a 5 year deal (3 year extension). He'd have signed very similar to Allen's 6 year extension.

3 year extension wouldn't be all that different than what he may end up with via tag. $32M then $38.4M then $55M if he's tagged three times non-exclusive.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Doubt he'd have signed only a 5 year deal (3 year extension). He'd have signed very similar to Allen's 6 year extension.

 

Okay. But I still think that by pushing back his 3rd and 4th contracts to when he'll be older makes it harder for him to make up the money lost in years 4 and 5 (and 6 if he sits out for any or all of the season)

[Mackus]

Okay. But I still think that by pushing back his 3rd and 4th contracts to when he'll be older makes it harder for him to make up the money lost in years 4 and 5 (and 6 if he sits out for any or all of the season)

Hasn't Allen done this already? He's signed for the next 6 years. Lamar could play on tag this year, which makes up over the $30M of the gap that currently exists, then sign a 5 year deal and be in the same position as Allen as long as that deal is 5/$200M or more (Allen would have about 5/$190M left after 2023, he gets paid basically the minimum this year in a quirk of his deal).

[cprenegade]

I'd be pretty surprised if his teammates hold a grudge.  They'll welcome him back if he comes back.  

 

Not exactly the same, but Deebo Samuel was demanding a trade this time a year ago, the 49ers refused, and things seemed to be fine with him and the team (can't say I follow the 49ers enough to say with much confidence, but I didn't hear anything negative).

 

Kareem Hunt also requested a trade before last season and the Browns refused to trade him.  I don't recall hearing about any animosity between he and teammates.

 

I don't think any of this will affect his relationship with his teammates.  I think they all understand it's the business side of it and they will be totally behind him when he comes back.  I think him not playing in the playoff game would have done more damage than him fighting management for a contract.

 

But I do believe he has lost nearly all of the fan's good will.  I think the only people still behind him are his die hard fans.  I bet if you ran a poll right now on what fans WANT to happen, not what will happen, you would get 75% or more saying get rid of him.  It's human nature.  No matter how much he spins it as just business, the majority of fans are going to see it as a guy who is already a millionaire being offered the second or third biggest contract flipping the middle finger to Baltimore and wanting more.  And hurting the team in the process.   Sure he'll get some back on the bandwagon if he plays lights out and leads the Ravens on a deep playoff run, but he will never be as popular as he was from 2019 on here.  

 

I would bet if he holds out through camp and then plays on the tag, he will be hearing quite a few boos the first time he takes the field.  And if he does end up being traded, the first time he plays again in Baltimore he's going to get the John Elway/Reggie Jackson treatment for sure.  

[Mike in STL]

I don’t have the first clue how this plays out.

I originally picked sign an offer sheet but the Ravens don’t match. But I think teams are out on him for “various reasons”. But I’m going to change that to I think he’s traded but not anytime soon.

He has until July 15th to accept a long term deal or he’s locked into earning the franchise tag rate for the season. If he doesn’t sign, he doesn’t participate, he doesn’t get paid, he has until week 10 or his season is over. I think by early August teams might have an injury situation, the draft didn’t go their way, or their QBs are garbage and they are beginning to see that as camp starts.

You wouldn’t have to make an offer sheet after July 15 because he’s locked into the tag rate for the season. So that’s when teams come out of the woodwork to make trade offers knowing they are getting him on a one year prove it deal, and don’t have to meet some ridiculous contract demands in an offer sheet, and lose two firsts. They also have first right to extend him if he plays well and actually finishes a season.

Maybe a team offers a player with a big base salary in trade, and a pick for Lamar, so they don’t have to do the salary cap gymnastics to fit $32M in. More trade options.

On the other hand, would Lamar sign the tender after July 15 just to go prove himself for a year elsewhere? Or if he doesn’t by then he’s not at all? Would the Ravens even trade him that late if his options are play and prove your worth or sit and make $0? If he’s playing an proving his worth, the Ravens might not oblige him then.

The draft will be telling what direction the Ravens are looking. If they land a QB in round 1 somehow, safe to say they are moving on.

All that said, I have no clue how this plays out.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Somehow it feels like all of these options are under 1-in-6, but since we've attacked this every other angle, I'll rank the options in terms of what I think is most likely to least likely...

Plays on tag
Traded
Ravens match offer sheet
Sits out 2023
Ravens do not match offer sheet
Signs extension with Ravens

Absolutely zero confidence in any of this and everything subject to change pending the next episode of this soap opera.

I think an extension with the Ravens is higher than almost anyone thinks. On this list I'd have it 3rd probably. At some point, and probaby already, he has to understand what the long term security means. He has to understand what sitting out all year would mean too.


I think Id rank the 6 today as

1. Plays on tender
2. Trade
3. Ravens extension
4. Sign and Ravens match
5. Sign and Ravens let him go
6. Sit out.


Now what makes #1 still number #1 for me is he can hold out for a long time. Coming in late, even once the season starts, is a viable option to still make money in '23, show he is still talented, and get a year closer to FA. Beyond that, its what I said above, he has to understand that he needs a longterm deal now is huge. Its why a trade and an extension are 2 and 3 for me.

[PrimeTime]

I think an extension with the Ravens is higher than almost anyone thinks. On this list I'd have it 3rd probably. At some point, and probaby already, he has to understand what the long term security means. He has to understand what sitting out all year would mean too.


I think Id rank the 6 today as

1. Plays on tender
2. Trade
3. Ravens extension
4. Sign and Ravens match
5. Sign and Ravens let him go
6. Sit out.


Now what makes #1 still number #1 for me is he can hold out for a long time. Coming in late, even once the season starts, is a viable option to still make money in '23, show he is still talented, and get a year closer to FA. Beyond that, its what I said above, he has to understand that he needs a longterm deal now is huge. Its why a trade and an extension are 2 and 3 for me.

 

Funny enough, I think extending with the Ravens is the most likely outcome. At some point, Lamar has to come out of his cocoon and realize that the Ravens have the best offer on the table (assuming the offer is still on the table, that is).

 

A trade only works if you have another team willing to dance, which would have to coincide with Lamar coming off his perceived demands. Granted, I'm taking an educated guess on Lamar's demands based on the reports of the Ravens contract offer, combined with Lamar's tweet stating that the Ravens weren't meeting his value. This is where all of the issues lie.

 

If the Ravens have an offer that makes Lamar the 2nd highest paid QB in the league but Lamar believes his value is higher than that, while at the same time no other franchises believe he's worth more than what the Ravens offered, why would anyone trade for him, knowing that they can't/won't meet his perceived value? 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Funny enough, I think extending with the Ravens is the most likely outcome. At some point, Lamar has to come out of his cocoon and realize that the Ravens have the best offer on the table (assuming the offer is still on the table, that is).

A trade only works if you have another team willing to dance, which would have to coincide with Lamar coming off his perceived demands. Granted, I'm taking an educated guess on Lamar's demands based on the reports of the Ravens contract offer, combined with Lamar's tweet stating that the Ravens weren't meeting his value. This is where all of the issues lie.

If the Ravens have an offer that makes Lamar the 2nd highest paid QB in the league but Lamar believes his value is higher than that, while at the same time no other franchises believe he's worth more than what the Ravens offered, why would anyone trade for him, knowing that they can't/won't meet his perceived value?

No problem if you think its the most likely outcome. I think its fair. I have trade above it only because hes asked for that and he might be willing to sign for something reasonable long term with another team but not here

[PrimeTime]

No problem if you think its the most likely outcome. I think its fair. I have trade above it only because hes asked for that and he might be willing to sign for something reasonable long term with another team but not here

 

This is an interesting point. And perhaps it speaks to the premise that Lamar simply doesn't want to be here any longer. 

[makoman]

This is an interesting point. And perhaps it speaks to the premise that Lamar simply doesn't want to be here any longer.

If it’s true that they’ve still been negotiating lately then I tend to think the trade request is purely about money, not that he wants to leave, and they can still come to some sort of agreement. Much like Deebo last year. Unless something has happened in the past week to change that.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

These are the Days of Lamar's life. Soap opera for sure that has twists and turns. Curious how the vote would go today. Sure looks like he is playing another game in a Baltimore uni.

[cprenegade]

I admit I would probably change my vote to playing on the tag now.  The signing of OBJ almost makes this look like an all in or bust year.   I'm thinking Lamar holds out of camp, but shows up for the games.  

[St.Steveg]

I admit I would probably change my vote to playing on the tag now.  The signing of OBJ almost makes this look like an all in or bust year.   I'm thinking Lamar holds out of camp, but shows up for the games. 

This is not acceptable. I don't know what could be done about it, but how could anyone expect a quarterback to be worth a shit doing that? Get somebody, anybody else (hopefully not Huntley) to train with the offense and screw Lamar to the bench if he does that. I really don't think it will come to that, though. I think he will sign a deal.

[bmore_ken]

This is not acceptable. I don't know what could be done about it, but how could anyone expect a quarterback to be worth a shit doing that? Get somebody, anybody else (hopefully not Huntley) to train with the offense and screw Lamar to the bench if he does that. I really don't think it will come to that, though. I think he will sign a deal.

You can't bench a guy who's $32M against your cap. Literally makes no sense. 

[Slidemaster]

You can't bench a guy who's $32M against your cap. Literally makes no sense.

You can if he's literally never played a snap in your brand new offense.

[Mackus]

This is not acceptable. I don't know what could be done about it, but how could anyone expect a quarterback to be worth a shit doing that? Get somebody, anybody else (hopefully not Huntley) to train with the offense and screw Lamar to the bench if he does that. I really don't think it will come to that, though. I think he will sign a deal.

 

Very common for tagged players to not sign the tender until deep into camp and then start reporting then.  Teams know this when they apply the tag.  Only alternative is to rescind the tag, then he's an unrestricted free agent and can go anywhere with no compensation.

 

Suggs did this when he was tagged.  I don't recall anyone suggesting he should be benched.  Quarterback is a different position, but they have the same rights as all the other people.  If a team wants to play the tag game, this is what they should expect.  Dak Prescott reported, so he's an example of a guy not holding out, but that is often the exception and not the rule.

[bmore_ken]

Very common for tagged players to not sign the tender until deep into camp and then start reporting then.  Teams know this when they apply the tag.  Only alternative is to rescind the tag, then he's an unrestricted free agent and can go anywhere with no compensation.

 

Suggs did this when he was tagged.  I don't recall anyone suggesting he should be benched.  Quarterback is a different position, but they have the same rights as all the other people.  If a team wants to play the tag game, this is what they should expect.  Dak Prescott reported, so he's an example of a guy not holding out, but that is often the exception and not the rule.

Exactly