63 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

I think last year was closer to his peak than his floor. Still like him as a bench/role player on a contending team but I think he’s the most overrated player on the team.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If the D is that legit at that position he isnt overrated. I doubt hes anywhere close to as good a defender at 2b in particular but also 3b to really be a uti guy.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also if he is that overrated and Elias is sitting there with plenty of SS options in hand he would've moved him this offseason. Mike will almost always sell high and we heard there was interest in Mateo

[BobPhelan]

Also if he is that overrated and Elias is sitting there with plenty of SS options in hand he would've moved him this offseason. Mike will almost always sell high and we heard there was interest in Mateo

Maybe interest but at what level and for what return? I feel Urias has more value and you keep Mateo around as depth and speed/defense on the bench.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Also if he is that overrated and Elias is sitting there with plenty of SS options in hand he would've moved him this offseason. Mike will almost always sell high and we heard there was interest in Mateo

First name basis really is quite adorable.

[CantonJester]

Mateo is a PR / late inning defensive replacement on a playoff-bound team. He really doesn’t hold much value as a starting SS. And that’s OK. The kid can’t hit. 

[NewMarketSean]

Where does Hays stand? Solid first half, awful second half.

 

Shouldn't be penciled in as a starter at this point.

 

Was hoping he'd be a toss-in in a trade this offseason.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Where does Hays stand? Solid first half, awful second half.

 

Kind of tired of hearing about him. Just never developed.

 

He'll get the 1st half of the season. He produces, he stays in the lineup. 
He doesn't, he'll likely be replaced by Cowser.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

First name basis really is quite adorable.

Isnt it though

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Granted a lot of value is tied up in his D but I wont hear that a 3.4 WAR player should be a bench player or is definitevly is a bench player on a playoff team

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah Mateo was 14th in fWAR for shortstops last year, which means about half the league would get an upgrade at SS if he has another season of 2.8 fWAR. Start him or trade him to a team that would start him, using a 3 WAR player off the bench feels like a pretty underwhelming use of an asset. 

[CantonJester]

Yeah Mateo was 14th in fWAR for shortstops last year, which means about half the league would get an upgrade at SS if he has another season of 2.8 fWAR. Start him or trade him to a team that would start him, using a 3 WAR player off the bench feels like a pretty underwhelming use of an asset. 

 

He wouldn't be a 3 WAR player on the bench. His Win Probability (WPA) rated out at -2.48 (which was 21 out of 21 qualifying SS last season). 

 

I will say that with the shift ban in place, his OBP will perhaps move beyond .300. 

[Mackus]

He wouldn't be a 3 WAR player on the bench. His Win Probability (WPA) rated out at -2.48 (which was 21 out of 21 qualifying SS last season). 

 

I will say that with the shift ban in place, his OBP will perhaps move beyond .300. 

 

WPA is environment and scenario-dependent.  Good for looking back at how valuable a player's contributions were, but not good for measure the actual contribution or projecting forward.  Its like RBI.  Mateo batted 9th all year so probably not a lot of high leverage opportunities for him.

 

Most of Mateo's value came simply from playing.  A SS who is league average hitter and fielder would be worth about 2.75 WAR (7.5 runs for defensive adjustment, 20 runs for value at the plate above replacement).  Mateo's 2022 WAR was nearly exactly that, meaning that his fielding advantages over other shortstops and his base running prowess are pretty much equaled out by his struggles at the plate compared to average.

 

And according to Baseball Savant, Mateo was only shifted on in 3% of his PAs, which was 426th among 490 MLB hitters with 100+ PA.  The new shift rules aren't likely to impact his hitting at all.  His impact of his baserunning and defensive range skills should both benefit from the other rule changes.

 

https://baseballsava...ide=R&gb=1&fb=0

[TwentyThirtyFive]

WPA is environment and scenario-dependent. Good for looking back at how valuable a player's contributions were, but not good for measure the actual contribution or projecting forward. Its like RBI. Mateo batted 9th all year so probably not a lot of high leverage opportunities for him.

Most of Mateo's value came simply from playing. A SS who is league average hitter and fielder would be worth 2.75 WAR (7.5 runs for defensive adjustment, 20 runs for value at the plate above replacement). Mateo's worth nearly exactly that, meaning that his fielding advantages over other shortstops and his base running prowess are pretty much equaled out by his struggles at the plate compared to average.

And according to Baseball Savant, Mateo was only shifted on in 3% of his PAs, which was 426th among 490 MLB hitters with 100+ PA. The new shift rules aren't likely to impact his hitting at all. His impact of his baserunning and defensive range skills should both benefit from the other rule changes.

https://baseballsava...ide=R&gb=1&fb=0

My guess is he knew all that but was cherry picking stats to paint him in the worst light as possible.


Im not dying on the Mateo hill. Ill choose a better spot but there is complete disrespect by some.

[BSLRoseKatz]

WPA is environment and scenario-dependent.  Good for looking back at how valuable a player's contributions were, but not good for measure the actual contribution or projecting forward.  Its like RBI.  Mateo batted 9th all year so probably not a lot of high leverage opportunities for him.

 

Most of Mateo's value came simply from playing.  A SS who is league average hitter and fielder would be worth about 2.75 WAR (7.5 runs for defensive adjustment, 20 runs for value at the plate above replacement).  Mateo's 2022 WAR was nearly exactly that, meaning that his fielding advantages over other shortstops and his base running prowess are pretty much equaled out by his struggles at the plate compared to average.

 

And according to Baseball Savant, Mateo was only shifted on in 3% of his PAs, which was 426th among 490 MLB hitters with 100+ PA.  The new shift rules aren't likely to impact his hitting at all.  His impact of his baserunning and defensive range skills should both benefit from the other rule changes.

 

https://baseballsava...ide=R&gb=1&fb=0

It's also entirely a hitting stat and I'm pretty sure it doesn't even measure base running, just the outcome of your PAs. So yeah WPA is a pretty incomplete stat to measure his value.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

1) I don't think there's any way he could have qualified the financial commitment ownership would be willing to provide, when the day came that the team was ready to contend. And it's the Angelos family, they lie. So even if he took the job knowing who he was going to work for, he was given the opportunity to build a farm system from the ground up. When he's ready to move on, he'll get another job as soon as he's ready for one

 

2) There's nothing he has done to this point to show us that he's ready to contend. But the opportunity to step up to the top baseball ops position in the sport, is the more probable reason he took the job. 

 

3) This is the most likely reason for his nothingness winter. He admitted as much about last year's playoff contender.  

I believe that's a true statement.

 

I also believe its nonsense for the simple reason that its a made up metric. All fans care about is if their minor league players builds them wins at the big club (thru direct contributions or as trade pieces).  Anything else is rah rah noise and I doubt a major league executive is excited to have his legacy based on how good a minor league system they built.

[CantonJester]

WPA is environment and scenario-dependent.  Good for looking back at how valuable a player's contributions were, but not good for measure the actual contribution or projecting forward.  Its like RBI.  Mateo batted 9th all year so probably not a lot of high leverage opportunities for him.

 

Most of Mateo's value came simply from playing.  A SS who is league average hitter and fielder would be worth about 2.75 WAR (7.5 runs for defensive adjustment, 20 runs for value at the plate above replacement).  Mateo's 2022 WAR was nearly exactly that, meaning that his fielding advantages over other shortstops and his base running prowess are pretty much equaled out by his struggles at the plate compared to average.

 

And according to Baseball Savant, Mateo was only shifted on in 3% of his PAs, which was 426th among 490 MLB hitters with 100+ PA.  The new shift rules aren't likely to impact his hitting at all.  His impact of his baserunning and defensive range skills should both benefit from the other rule changes.

 

https://baseballsava...ide=R&gb=1&fb=0

 

So his value comes from simply showing up. I mean, that's half the success we earn in this life (by just being on time). The other half is being comparatively better at what you do. Check his wRC+ or wRAA. In fact, sort however you like. What you described sounds pretty replaceable. 

 

As for the shift data? Ouch. I mean, he is RH (which explains a lot of it), and while I suppose his low hard hit ball rate explains some of it, he is more/less a pull-happy hitter (CF-LF). Oh well. So much for him raising his OBP beyond .300. 

 

My guess is he knew all that but was cherry picking stats to paint him in the worst light as possible.


Im not dying on the Mateo hill. Ill choose a better spot but there is complete disrespect by some.

 

It doesn't take a lot of effort to do that, but sweet assassination just the same!

[BSLRoseKatz]

Has anyone argued against him being a below-average hitter?

 

He's not great at hitting but he is an elite fielder and an elite runner and if you have 2 tools that are pretty much 80-grade then you can be a net positive as an everyday starter at an important defensive position like SS even if you don't hit very well and that's backed up from being worth 2.8 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR last year.  

[CantonJester]

Has anyone argued against him being a below-average hitter?

 

He's not great at hitting but he is an elite fielder and an elite runner and if you have 2 tools that are pretty much 80-grade then you can be a net positive as an everyday starter at an important defensive position like SS even if you don't hit very well and that's backed up from being worth 2.8 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR last year.  

 

He's not an 80 grade defensive SS, but I get your point. I simply said he's a PR / late inning defensive replacement on a playoff-bound team. 

 

Maybe I should've included the term, "ideally."

[makoman]

Has anyone argued against him being a below-average hitter?

 

He's not great at hitting but he is an elite fielder and an elite runner and if you have 2 tools that are pretty much 80-grade then you can be a net positive as an everyday starter at an important defensive position like SS even if you don't hit very well and that's backed up from being worth 2.8 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR last year.  

"not great at hitting" is fine. If last year is the baseline and he's a wRC+ in the 80s guy with GG defense, maybe we could do better with some combo of Westburg/Ortiz, but yeah that's probably fine, that's starting caliber.

 

The problem is we don't know if that's the baseline, or if last year was a high point where he was just out of his mind for 2 months. On July 8th his OPS was .565 and wRC+ was 60. That's not fine. That was more than half his PAs, not a small sample. I would have felt a lot better that something had clicked if he continued his hot streak into September, but instead he went right back to .539. I like him and I'm happy having him get most of the SS time but it wouldn't be crazy if he ends up a non-tender candidate this winter. But the speed and defense should allow him to contribute to a contender even if he can't hit.