63 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

Maybe I've been drinking the koolaid here, but I think there's a better chance of them being one of the ten best than ten worst.

 

Way, way too much upside on this team for it to all come crashing down like that. 

I hope you're right. I think they simply over achieved last year, and of all the subtractions, the only thing that added up to an addition was Cole Irvin. The bullpen is worse than last year. Adam Frazier's bat in the lineup every day. They found much more than expected from Jordan Lyles. Are they really going to get that lucky again, this time with Kyle Gibson. 

 

Even if Gunnar and Adley rake and are bonafide All-Stars, it takes much more than that. Just ask the Angels. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If they are one of the 10 worst teams in baseball this year then signing Chris Bassitt and Jose Abreu wasnt going to make any difference to their playoff chances. Nor would Rodon or DeGrom for that matter. It will have meant that they are still a year or two away and those that claim Elias refuses to go for it and doesnt "believe we are ready" wont have the leg to stand on

[dude]

If they are one of the 10 worst teams in baseball this year then signing Chris Bassitt and Jose Abreu wasnt going to make any difference to their playoff chances. Nor would Rodon or DeGrom for that matter. It will have meant that they are still a year or two away and those that claim Elias refuses to go for it and doesnt "believe we are ready" wont have the leg to stand on

 

Completely wrong.  Your comment assumes there's only one outcome for a season and you can't move the needle or influence the outcome.  Last year was not an expected or average result headed into the season.

 

THE JOB is to do everything you can, to create whatever opportunity you can, and then go play your ass off and see what happens.  The 2012-2016 Teams weren't as good as they played, the 2018 team not as bad as they played.

[dude]

... specifically, a farm system strong enough for the Orioles to acquire virtually any player they want at the trade deadline. Think Corbin Burnes. Think Bryan Reynolds. Think of any quality player under control beyond the 2023 season.

 

You can't acquire "virtually any player [you] want" and that's the ginormous flaw with this thinking.  This is Cost of Availability.  You can can get any AVAILABLE player.  Burnes or Reynolds might be available, but you are in competition with other teams for the good available players and when you have a lot of assets, then teams want a lot of your assets and the Orioles aren't likely to overpay (their perception) for anything.

 

Cole Irvin or McCann are AVAILABLE for different reasons so the cost to acquire (trade capital) isn't that big.

 

The space people want to believe exists to do stuff like this is thin (at best).  If the Brewers are actively competing for the playoffs, Burnes isn't available. If you wanted to make your deal, make it 2 months ago.

 

 

The Orioles, forgive me for slipping into executive-speak, have the “prospect capital” to go get such a player. At some point, they will need to “consolidate their assets.”

 

This goes back to my previous "Meaningless depth" comments.  Depth only matters if you convert it.  You (still, always) have to make choices and the choices aren't better informed today that yesterday or tomorrow, they're just different.  Depth is cool if you're Bob talking about the system on OTV, but the reality is that all of these guys can't play to help the ML club.  You get one 2B.  Not some accumulation of perceived value across the depth of the organization.  Only the guy in the lineup that gets 4 ABs. He may (hopefully) get those ABs for the next 6+ years.  Choose.

 

Pulling the first comment into this, the Orioles have had plenty of opportunity to leverage prospect capital.  There were options before last season.  At the deadline.  This offseason.  We're waiting on Burnes, but Woodburn was available.  There's nothing special about this deadline versus last or in 2024. 

 

You make choices, go hard at it and then you have opportunities to get more Talent in the system.  It's never some static start point. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Completely wrong. Your comment assumes there's only one outcome for a season and you can't move the needle or influence the outcome. Last year was not an expected or average result headed into the season.

THE JOB is to do everything you can, to create whatever opportunity you can, and then go play your ass off and see what happens. The 2012-2016 Teams weren't as good as they played, the 2018 team not as bad as they played.

He said he thought we were lucky last year. Im gonna assume he thinks we are legit one of the 10 worst teams in baseball. Obviously there is variance in what can happen but Im completely right if my assumption is right that he thinks we are a 70 winish team.

[Mike in STL]

He said he thought we were lucky last year. Im gonna assume he thinks we are legit one of the 10 worst teams in baseball. Obviously there is variance in what can happen but Im completely right if my assumption is right that he thinks we are a 70 winish team.

Vegas line is 76.5. Thats probably very accurate. It's a line I wouldn't bet on because I wouldn't be surprised with 77 wins. Gun to my head I'd take the under by a tad. Like 74.

 

They aren't winning 83 again. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Here's why I think Elias shares a huge bit of blame for the poor offseason approach.

 

1. IF ownership really won't open up the pocket book then Elias did a piss poor job of vetting them when he interviewed and took the job in the first place.

 

or

 

2. Elias really doesn't give a crap about winning either and took the job to earn a paycheck.

 

or

 

3. Elias really thinks we are not close to a playoff team (regardless of being in the picture last year till September) and doesn't think any of the guys they could have signed weren't enough to make a difference this year AND there are better options coming open next offseason.

 

Only time will tell if #3 is where we are at.

[Mackus]

This goes back to my previous "Meaningless depth" comments.  Depth only matters if you convert it

 

Or if you need it.

[NewMarketSean]

I still don't see this offense being much better than last year.

 

Wish we had added a solid bat in there somewhere.

 

Maybe Mountcastle and Hays improve...we need some stuff to break positively for this offense to be a top half of the AL offense.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I still don't see this offense being much better than last year.

Wish we had added a solid bat in there somewhere.

Maybe Mountcastle and Hays improve...we need some stuff to break positively for this offense to be a top half of the AL offense.

The offense will be.......ok

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The offense will be.......ok

Perhaps but given what should have been the payroll flexibility and/or trade pieces we should be going into the season with much higher  hopes for the offense than "ok"

[weird-O]

Here's why I think Elias shares a huge bit of blame for the poor offseason approach.

 

1. IF ownership really won't open up the pocket book then Elias did a piss poor job of vetting them when he interviewed and took the job in the first place.

 

or

 

2. Elias really doesn't give a crap about winning either and took the job to earn a paycheck.

 

or

 

3. Elias really thinks we are not close to a playoff team (regardless of being in the picture last year till September) and doesn't think any of the guys they could have signed weren't enough to make a difference this year AND there are better options coming open next offseason.

 

Only time will tell if #3 is where we are at.

1) I don't think there's any way he could have qualified the financial commitment ownership would be willing to provide, when the day came that the team was ready to contend. And it's the Angelos family, they lie. So even if he took the job knowing who he was going to work for, he was given the opportunity to build a farm system from the ground up. When he's ready to move on, he'll get another job as soon as he's ready for one

 

2) There's nothing he has done to this point to show us that he's ready to contend. But the opportunity to step up to the top baseball ops position in the sport, is the more probable reason he took the job. 

 

3) This is the most likely reason for his nothingness winter. He admitted as much about last year's playoff contender.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Perhaps but given what should have been the payroll flexibility and/or trade pieces we should be going into the season with much higher hopes for the offense than "ok"

They shouldve added 1 good bat this offseason. Didnt need to be a stud but a solid bat. Baffles me more than not going after a pitcher on the level of Bassitt.



We will see how some of these younger guys perform. There are a lot of guys with upside. My guess is we should be projected around 15th in offense. If I had to take an over under on 15th Id lean worse

[Mackus]

They shouldve added 1 good bat this offseason. Didnt need to be a stud but a solid bat. Baffles me more than not going after a pitcher on the level of Bassitt.



We will see how some of these younger guys perform. There are a lot of guys with upside. My guess is we should be projected around 15th in offense. If I had to take an over under on 15th Id lean worse

How dare you imply Adam Frazier is less than solid!

[makoman]

Catcher should be better than last year. Full year of Adley plus McCann should be > Chirinos. 

 

Mountcastle should be better, he had a lot of bad luck IMO.

 

Frazier should at least match Odor, maybe be better marginally. Low bar there.

 

Mateo, who knows, I'll say the same. 

 

Gunnar will be better than 3B generally was last year.

 

Hays is a career 104 OPS+, last year 103. I think he is what he is. Same.

 

Mullins hopefully will be a bit better, even if he's worse than 2021.

Santander will probably be worse, has the makings of a career year.

Stowers I hope can match what Trey did.

 

The rest of the depth last year was...not good to be polite. I hope some of the young guys come up and do better. Urias as mostly a bench guy improves the bench too.

 

I think they should easily improve over last year on offense. Pitching is the question. If the bullpen repeats I think they'll be good again.

 

All of this is ignoring that they should have done more this offseason, of course that's the case.

[NewMarketSean]

I am only optimistic that Rutschman, Henderson, Vavra and maybe Stowers can improve upon their numbers last year.

 

I don't know if that moves the needle enough to bump this offense into a top half offense.

 

They still don't get on base at a good enough clip. Pitching (bullpen) will have to do their share of the heavy lifting again.

 

We had a very good BP last year. Can they do it again?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Mountcastle was quite unlucky. The over on his 2022 is easily the right play. Mateo really cant be much worse IMO from a OPS+ perspective. Mack might disagree. I think he was on the lower end of his outcomes though its a narrow range. He was 81+ last year. I would guess the max is like 100



Rutsch can be better. Frazier will be better. A lot depends kn Gunnar and Stowers and any other non established young guy. All the AAA crew and Vavra.


Wish we had one more thumper. Straight run producuer. An .850 OPS guy in the 3-5 spot and my outlook is much brighter

[Mackus]

Mountcastle was quite unlucky. The over on his 2022 is easily the right play. Mateo really cant be much worse IMO from a OPS+ perspective. Mack might disagree. I think he was on the lower end of his outcomes though its a narrow range. He was 81+ last year. I would guess the max is like 100

 

Definitely disagree. He's certainly got floor below what he did in 2022.  That would be if he is basically the same guy but without the hot stretch in July/August, or even just a hot streak with shorter duration and less of a peak.

 

I'm absolutely cherry-picking the dates, but he had a 565 OPS thru July 9th and then 483 OPS from August 24th through the end of the season.  964 OPS in the 130 PA in between.  That happened, so its in there, and hopefully he can sprinkle in more good periods.  But I'm guessing he'll be a decent bit below the 650 OPS / 80 OPS+ line he was last season.  Under 600 wouldn't surprise me.  Probably loses his job if he's that bad in the first half, with guys like Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby near ready to come up and take some time away.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Nah. He will match the 81 at worst. The talent is there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Nah. He will match the 81 at worst. The talent is there.

This is to say your probably right that 81 isnt all that close to his downside but I refuse to hear it.