63 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

From Ken Rosenthal: https://theathletic....look-rosenthal/

 

Paywalled, but if you have it, worth a read

[BSLRoseKatz]

Elias has other means at his disposal — specifically, a farm system strong enough for the Orioles to acquire virtually any player they want at the trade deadline. Think Corbin Burnes. Think Bryan Reynolds. Think of any quality player under control beyond the 2023 season. The Orioles, forgive me for slipping into executive-speak, have the “prospect capital” to go get such a player. At some point, they will need to “consolidate their assets.”

 

If you need a paragraph to summarize the whole thing I think this works well

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its what I said yesterday. Dont have to make the trade and add all the payroll this offseason. Can target guys in season

[BaltBird 24]

The problem with that is you're probably going to pay more in terms of capital trading in season. Supply VS demand.

Also, the good thing about Free Agency is you can acquire talent without giving up talent (unless you're losing draft picks.)

[Mackus]

Its what I said yesterday. Dont have to make the trade and add all the payroll this offseason. Can target guys in season

 

Yes, that should be an option.  But isn't it pretty easy to envision Elias deciding that we're 2 or 3 games too far out of whatever we're pursuing to really go ahead and add guys?  And isn't it even easier to envision the difference between the guys added in a good offseason and the bargain bin shopping we actually did in this crappy offseason making at least 2 or 3 games worth of difference over the first 4 months of the season leading into that decision point?

 

Hope it all works out just great and we end up where we wanna go.  But it'll be harder to get there and also less likely to get there because of the decisions made this offseason compared to what could've and should've been done.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The problem with that is you're probably going to pay more in terms of capital trading in season. Supply VS demand.

Also, the good thing about Free Agency is you can acquire talent without giving up talent (unless you're losing draft picks.)

Not true. They are 3 months closer to FA. Period. Plus, for example, Mil is trying to win to start the season. They are much more likely to be open to dealing Burnes at the deadline. So.in that sense it takes more to pull a Burnes away from them in January when they arent selling/rebuilding. Thats ehat happened with Manny. Absolutely could have got more that offseason bit DD and Buck were still trying to win to start '18.

[CantonJester]

Yes, that should be an option.  But isn't it pretty easy to envision Elias deciding that we're 2 or 3 games too far out of whatever we're pursuing to really go ahead and add guys?  And isn't it even easier to envision the difference between the guys added in a good offseason and the bargain bin shopping we actually did in this crappy offseason making at least 2 or 3 games worth of difference over the first 4 months of the season leading into that decision point?

 

Hope it all works out just great and we end up where we wanna go.  But it'll be harder to get there and also less likely to get there because of the decisions made this offseason compared to what could've and should've been done.

 

Relative to this season, sure..But not in the grand scheme. 

 

It could get real ugly, real fast if JA requires Elias to give up more prospect capital to make a team pay off some of the incoming contract though…

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yes, that should be an option. But isn't it pretty easy to envision Elias deciding that we're 2 or 3 games too far out of whatever we're pursuing to really go ahead and add guys? And isn't it even easier to envision the difference between the guys added in a good offseason and the bargain bin shopping we actually did in this crappy offseason making at least 2 or 3 games worth of difference over the first 4 months of the season leading into that decision point?

Hope it all works out just great and we end up where we wanna go. But it'll be harder to get there and also less likely to get there because of the decisions made this offseason compared to what could've and should've been done.

If it isnt a rental then 2 or 3 games wont make a difference. If the Os are playing poorly and arent in the mix and Burnes or Reynolds is being shopped then yeah I would agree it makes it less likely Elias jumps into that mix. That player isnt going to help in '23 and though youd have him for '24 and maybe beyond youre paying a price for the rest of '23. A season that will have been totally lost. The Os wont be in that postition though

[Mackus]

If it isnt a rental then 2 or 3 games wont make a difference. If the Os are playing poorly and arent in the mix and Burnes or Reynolds is being shopped then yeah I would agree it makes it less likely Elias jumps into that mix. That player isnt going to help in '23 and though youd have him for '24 and maybe beyond youre paying a price for the rest of '23. A season that will have been totally lost. The Os wont be in that postition though

 

Highly skeptical about the first sentence.

[BSLMikeLowe]

By not trying to get those 2-3 extra wins in Apr-Jul via offseason roster building, you can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it isn't going to be "the right time" to improve at the deadline either.

[hallas]

The problem with that is you're probably going to pay more in terms of capital trading in season. Supply VS demand.

Also, the good thing about Free Agency is you can acquire talent without giving up talent (unless you're losing draft picks.)

 

I don't think you're necessarily going to pay more for 1.5 years of a player at a deadline versus 2 years before the season starts, but you're probably not going to pay less.  That said, it's a worthwhile tradeoff because marginal wins are worth a hell of a lot more when you're in a playoff race.  We wouldn't trade prospects for major leaguers if we were 35-55 at the deadline.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Ill take the chance that the guys in house can keep this team in contention vs overpaying a Bassitt this offseason and then potentially not having the payroll budget to acquire a better player in Burnes. Should it be that way. No. Should be able to have both through '24 but Elias has to play by JA's rules.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Look, you guys want to point to the things Elias has said that hasnt happened to this point. Ill point to the fact that he has said every move has to be weighed and the impact it will have on the payroll. With the payroll range we all know we are in signing a Chris Bassitt and or the decision to overpay him to get him to sign takes on added weight. More of a need to hit on that acquistion. If Bassitt were an acquistion for the Yankees its a drop in the bucket to the impact it has on the yearly payroll.

[bmore_ken]

By not trying to get those 2-3 extra wins in Apr-Jul via offseason roster building, you can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it isn't going to be "the right time" to improve at the deadline either.

Pretty much my prediction for what's going to happen. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Sorry 25 but your support of this whole Elias BS is nonsense. The O's have already shown an willingness to go up to $160M or so in payroll. They could have paid Bassitt well over his going rate and still had tons of payroll room to grow.

 

In season moves certainly are always an option but to me its a lot more downside than upside.

a. Its going to cost more than during the offseason because the teams in the hunt end up in more of a bidding war than during the offseason since they know what their actual playoff situation is. The cost is never going to be less because the O's won't go after a high end rental anyway.

b. Having a quality player for April to October is more likely to help a team reach the playoffs than having that same player for the last two months of the season.

[weird-O]

Sorry 25 but your support of this whole Elias BS is nonsense. The O's have already shown an willingness to go up to $160M or so in payroll. They could have paid Bassitt well over his going rate and still had tons of payroll room to grow.

 

In season moves certainly are always an option but to me its a lot more downside than upside.

a. Its going to cost more than during the offseason because the teams in the hunt end up in more of a bidding war than during the offseason since they know what their actual playoff situation is. The cost is never going to be less because the O's won't go after a high end rental anyway.

b. Having a quality player for April to October is more likely to help a team reach the playoffs than having that same player for the last two months of the season.

In all fairness, 2035's opinions seem to be viewed from within the confines of a top budget of $65M. I don't blame him. He's just being pragmatic. That's not to say I don't agree with you about their being able to go to $165M. They could. But they don't want to. And that has always been the problem with this ownership group. They prefer obscene profits to winning. 

[Mike in STL]

Its what I said yesterday. Dont have to make the trade and add all the payroll this offseason. Can target guys in season

But they won't when because they didn't do squat in the offseason, they will be out of contention come the end of July. They won't add when 3 games out of a playoff spot. They definitely won't when 10+ games out of one like I expect them to be.

[CantonJester]

But they won't when because they didn't do squat in the offseason, they will be out of contention come the end of July. They won't add when 3 games out of a playoff spot. They definitely won't when 10+ games out of one like I expect them to be.

 

They might be 10+ back of first place, but zero chance they're 10 games out of a WC spot at the end of July. 

[Mike in STL]

They might be 10+ back of first place, but zero chance they're 10 games out of a WC spot at the end of July. 

I'll amend that to 10 games under .500 then. That would have been 8 games out of a WC spot on August 1 last year.

 

10 teams were 10 or more games out of a WC spot on August 1 last year. 

 

I certainly believe the Orioles will be one of the 10 worst teams in baseball this year. 

[CantonJester]

I'll amend that to 10 games under .500 then. That would have been 8 games out of a WC spot on August 1 last year.

 

10 teams were 10 or more games out of a WC spot on August 1 last year. 

 

I certainly believe the Orioles will be one of the 10 worst teams in baseball this year. 

 

Maybe I've been drinking the koolaid here, but I think there's a better chance of them being one of the ten best than ten worst.

 

Way, way too much upside on this team for it to all come crashing down like that.