62 replies to this topic

[makoman]

I like Givens but I don't think he's as good as Lopez will be in 2023 yet alone how good he was in 2022. I have no idea why people didn't trust what Lopez did last year but do trust Perez and Tate. I think Lopez is better than those two. Bautista has passed him in my view, but not the others. Will always think it was a terrible trade.

I trust Bautista because the stuff is just on a ridiculous level. The others, who knows. Maybe if you think you know why Perez got his control to manageable levels (and why it will stay that way) you can trust him. I think like 2035 Tate probably has a higher floor as he's been an adequate reliever for more than 1 year, but not a lot more upside. We all know relievers can be fickle. But that applies to Lopez just as much as everyone else.

 

Lopez also has a long track record of mediocrity. I can understand ignoring a lot of that because of the move to the pen, but I don't think you should ignore it completely and also ignore Minnesota too. If you include Minn his FIP and xFIP last year were worse than Bautista, Perez, Baker, and he had a better FIP and worse xFIP than Tate, Akin, and Givens. His BABIP was kinda crazy in Baltimore leading to 5.6 H/9. Some amount of regression from the 2022 first half was and is expected. Who knows how much exactly though. I wouldn't be surprised if he is worse than most of these guys or better than most of them this year, there's a ton of variance in all these guys being relievers and for many of them mostly being good just for a year.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah I'm definitely interested to see how Trey and Jorge do with a clean slate mentally in terms of not getting traded in-season. Obviously they're not the first players to ever get moved at the deadline but not everyone settles in that well to having to uproot their life in-season like that and I feel like a lot of rentals this year were pretty meh (Josh Bell 75 OPS+ with the Padres off the top of my head). 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'll agree higher floor with Tate than the others given the longer track record.

I think Perez and Lopez have better stuff, though Tate certainly was far more consistent last year than in the past.

Wasn't aiming to knock the other guys, I just really don't understand the criticism of Lopez. I imagine it's largely faith in Elias being adopted or converted into a personal evaluation. Lopez as a SP was a trainwreck but he always had the type of arsenal to seem like a guy who could do well if converted to relief. Potential doesn't mean he will succeed, but after a half year of dominance and a very good overall season, I think the odds of it being legit and him being a quality reliever are strong. I wouldn't expect All-Star level from him every year, but that's a reasonable upside and reasonable downside is still useful.

Two plus years of that during a period of contending is a lot more valuable than a middle of the 2nd ten prospect and one other deep flier, IMO. Hate the trade.

When I say Lopez will drop off considerably I mean from his time here last year. Not his time in Minn or even his overall numbers. I think we are back to not really knowing what to expect from him. Wide range of outcomes.