Photo

Season Coming & They Can Contend


  • Please log in to reply
62 replies to this topic

#41 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,311 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:50 PM

Will be shocked if they lose under 70. WIll not be shocked if we win over 90. There can be outliers but I think the floor is 70-92. Ceiling is 94- 68.



#42 Mike in STL

Mike in STL

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,346 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:00 PM

If you are close to being right, it will mean that a lot of the young players struggled and Elias and company will be under fire.

Not necessarily on the younger players. I think Adley and Gunnar could both be 6+ WAR players and the team still struggle to be average. A lot more worried about Mountcastle/Hays. Frazier blocking the development of Westburg. Gibson being worse than Lyles, which Lyles last year was a surprise on it's own. Givens' tendency to be a thrower, not a pitcher, downgrades the bullpen. Politi, 26, about to be thrust into MLB after a mostly horrid career in the minors. 

 

Adley, Gunnar, Bradish, Kremer, can all be good, but the weaknesses in other areas can cancel them out. 

 

Elias should be under fire already.


@BSLMikeRandall

#43 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,717 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:08 PM

I'm not going to predict the 100-loss season again. They are better. But not good enough.  I feel like they caught lightning in a bottle last year, Odor with some clutch moments despite being bad at everything else, and that will be hard to replicate, even with Adley and Gunnar playing a full season. I think they are about a 75 win team as is, factoring in the balanced schedule.

 

Will they trade some of that #1 farm system depth for immediate contributors? Last year they were in the race and the answer was no, and in fact did the opposite. Traded away contributors for more farm depth. Bullpen struggled and bats went quiet down the stretch. Did they need to be in the division race to be buyers? If they lead the division are they good enough you don't make any moves? We don't know how this FO will handle it, cause the only time the have been in contention, they still sold. 

 

I think Bradish is legit and will be an All-Star if not this season, then next, but well on his way. Kremer, incredible turnaround. If you aren't as good as you are at your best, or as bad as you are at your worst, then I expect some regression this year to a middle ground, but he's serviceable. So if one gets better, the other worse, pretty much standing pat. How much better is Gibson than Lyles? What role does Hall play? How does Means respond when he's back? I don't think much of Voth, Wells, Watkins, all the other JAGs who got turns last year. You aren't going anywhere with  those guys in the rotation. Long relief, okay, one of you.

 

Does G-Rod come up right away? I doubt it. Playing service time games and stuff. But if he does he'll be on an innings count. Maybe doesn't go past 3 IP for the first month, no more than 5 IP til June. Does he make it to the end of the year? If the O's are contending, do they shut him down? Expecting to get 160 IP isn't happening. So where do you trim it? The start, the end, or have him pitch in 3 inning stents for a while? 

 

If Hyde platoons Mullins again, I'll be very upset. Every lineup card should already have Mullins in slot one before they print them out for him to fill in the rest.

 

By the way...Hyde is still here, and we saw how he managed a team in the chase. Not well. So I guess we'll see if that changes if the Orioles are in fact in the chase again, or if he's a warm body filling out lineup cards and talking to the media in another lost season, cause someone has to. If he mismanages some important games this year, it's time to move on with a serious manager. 

 

Mountcastle and Hays are clones of each other in the batters box. Both bats slightly trending down, and the new wall didn't help. They will be under the microscope big time. If we expect Adley and Gunnar to lead the heart of the order, the offense might be as good as Hays and Mountcastle are. 

 

I also feel like if any of Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, are having a great year, but the team is only around .500, or fighting for only a WC spot, then they will be traded for some 2026 prospects. Lopez had team control left, and that didn't even matter. 

 

Didn't like what I saw in Stowers, too many meatballs just plain whiffed. But he is a lefty and in this park that gives you an advantage, so I'd give him the leash to figure it out. 

 

Mateo is a fine #9 hitter. Does the other things great and runs into a ball every now and then. But sometimes there is a lineup with four of these guys in it. 

 

Westburg is definitely not on the roster until August. They'll play the same clock game with him as Gunnar. First it'll be service time, then it'll be the at bats so he doesn't hit rookie status game. We'll hear about all these things he needs to improve on, and five days later, he will have improved on them (even if he didn't) then he'll be here. That is if the Orioles are contending. If not by then, then its the why start the clock for a losing team game. Frazier isn't getting $8M to sit. He shouldn't even be here, but that's besides the point.

 

Lost an All-Star from the pen, and replaced with known loser retread Givens and a rule 5 pick Politi who had his first inkling of minor league success at 26 years old and now must be on the 26-man or sent back to Boston. Bautista, the reason "we didn't need Lopez", suffered arm fatigue in September when in the chase was asked to do more. So you have to limit him this season. With 65 appearances he wasn't overused compared to other guys who were up into the 70s, but he was overused for him, so, that needs to be more like 55 appearances (You want that 103 MPH heater in the playoffs right?). Meaning more slack for Givens, Shaky Baker, and Rule 5 dude to pick up during the year. Not good. But it is the easiest position group to shore up at the deadline if they chose too. Who needs Lopez?

 

I thought the FO wasn't trying last year, and the players shocked us all. I think they aren't trying again this year, but we won't be shocked. Players will play their hearts out, but regression seems likely since there were zero upgrades, other than the experience factor for a few guys.


Will they trade some of that #1 farm system depth for immediate contributors?

 

- They won't - nor should they - be casual about giving away long-term team control; but they'll be more willing imo to trade for a significant piece that upgrades them. 

 

How much better is Gibson than Lyles? 

 

- He's not, it's a wash. 

 

I don't think much of Voth, Wells, Watkins, all the other JAGs who got turns last year. You aren't going anywhere with  those guys in the rotation.

 

- Right now Wells is probably the 5th. There is a bit more there than a JAG.  Means or Hall replacing him at some point is certainly possible. 

 

Does G-Rod come up right away?

 

- Elias has said multiple times yes.  They'll skip starts, and limit early innings to get him through the year. I expect he'll go from 75.2 innings to 150. 

 

If Hyde platoons Mullins again, I'll be very upset. 

 

- Mullins played 156 games, and had 608 ab's.  He was a regular, even if they rightfully started to hide him vs. LHP last year. 

 

By the way...Hyde is still here, and we saw how he managed a team in the chase. Not well. So I guess we'll see if that changes if the Orioles are in fact in the chase again, or if he's a warm body filling out lineup cards and talking to the media in another lost season, cause someone has to. If he mismanages some important games this year, it's time to move on with a serious manager.

 

- He's fine.  The better serious manager who would be upgrade you dislike and is currently managing the Mets. 

 

Mountcastle and Hays are clones of each other in the batters box. Both bats slightly trending down, and the new wall didn't help. They will be under the microscope big time. 

 

- The wall impacted them, but I don't feel they are both trending down.  Hays, maybe he is who he is.  Mountcastle is 26 in Feb.  He's a bit inconsistent. He crushed LHP in '21, and struggled vs lefties in '22.  He's scorching when he's hot.  He's going to provide good power, especially now at a very minimal cost. The obp is totally average driven.  Hays was probably the O's best player through June, and then struggled the rest of the year.  He was hurt, and that was part of the struggles, but overall he didn't produce enough. So yeah, there will be a large microscope with him... because Cowser is on the verge.  If you get through '23 and are down on Mountcastle, it's possible that someone that Mayo and Kjerstad are pushing for MLB ab's at 1st / DH in '24, but it would be really surprising to me if Mountcastle (if healthy) doesn't spend all of '23 in the regular lineup. 

 

I also feel like if any of Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, are having a great year, but the team is only around .500, or fighting for only a WC spot, then they will be traded for some 2026 prospects. Lopez had team control left, and that didn't even matter. 

 

- Nah.  None of them will be given away.  They valued Povich, they didn't value Lopez.   Elias is also admittedly hesitant to take from the ML roster.  Elias not believing the '22 team was good enough to maintain or add to, is not an indication of how he will feel about the '23 team.  All three of the players you mentioned could be traded for something, but Hays would be the only one they'd move imo for prospects. 

 

Don't like what I saw of Stowers... 

 

- He had 8 xbh's in 91 ab's.  His .724 OPS was higher than Mancini's .710 OPS in '22.   5 bb's vs. 29 k's was ugly.   20 homers and 30 doubles from him at the bottom of the order will be just fine.  The O's will need him to not be a blackhole.  He shouldn't be. 

 

 

Westburg is definitely not on the roster until August. They'll play the same clock game with him as Gunnar.

 

- I disagree  For one, Westburg isn't Gunnar.  He's a good prospect I happen to like a lot, but he's not Gunnar.  There is a non zero chance Westburg is on the OD roster. Frazier is going to have to completely rebound and lock down 2nd to keep Westburg from being up June imo.

 

Lost an All-Star from the pen, and replaced with known loser retread Givens

 

- You think there is a substantial difference from Lopez to Givens? I don't.  

 

Players will play their hearts out, but regression seems likely since there were zero upgrades, other than the experience factor for a few guys.

 

- Yeah, I'm not seeing widespread regression coming. More youth on the upswing vs. guys you have to worry about.


  • Hooded Viper and Mike in STL like this

#44 bmore_ken

bmore_ken

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,858 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:09 PM

I predict 75 wins, as currently constructed.

 

 

If you are close to being right, it will mean that a lot of the young players struggled and Elias and company will be under fire.

I think they're closer to 80, but what difference does that make at the end of the day. I'm 57 and would love to overpay for a playoff game in Baltimore before I die.  :mrgreen:



#45 You Play to Win the Game

You Play to Win the Game

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,347 posts
  • LocationMaryland

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:11 PM

Nah, you’re right Chris, everything was perfect down the stretch last year and is perfect right now.

#46 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 155,717 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:13 PM

Nah, you’re right Chris, everything was perfect down the stretch last year and is perfect right now.


If everything was perfect now, I'd probably expect them to finish above .500.  



#47 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,592 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:27 PM

Before this year the expectations for the Orioles under Elias and Hyde was to lose in historic proportions.  Last years success has changed that.  The fans are expecting grown man baseball this year and hopefully the Orioles will not do what the Tigers did and fall way back.

Elias has spent the off season trying to lower expectations so maybe he sees the pressure coming.

 

I've pointed this out before, but Brodie Van Wagenen and Elias were hired the same offseason.  Mike is working his slow arc, Brody has spent the last 3 off seasons with ROC Nation Sports.

 

This is my continual point to Chris's lead post....did we really need to lose more than almost any team in Baseball History to get to this "they could contend".

 

This is the type of opportunity you could have any season.  Anything they did to improve this year or next or whatever, was always available, regardless of the win total.  Nobody is lamenting the surprising 83 wins last year where we now draft 17th.

 

YEAR 5 and no-one that supported non-competitive behavior can argue it made a difference.

I said in 2018 that whatever we do in 2019, 2020, etc, 2023 can look exactly the same.  We're here. Truth.



#48 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,058 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:34 PM

The O's finished 3 games behind Tampa which was also the last wild card spot.

 

Does having Adley and Gunnar for the whole year make that up? Maybe, certainly possilbe.

 

Do either of them have a sophomore slump? Doubtful

 

Does the SP produce similar, better or worse results...same for the bullpen? I expect both to do worse.

 

Do pieces coming up make up for those 3 games?

 

Then the problem. Even if all those things go our way you have to ask yourself the real key question. On paper (that's all we have right now) have the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners improved, gotten worse, or about the same? How about the Twins, Red Sox and White Sox?

 

I look at this (trying to be objective) and I just don't see this as a favorable situation. We are a TOR SP and good bat away. We were in September and we are still today.


  • You Play to Win the Game and Mashed Potatoes like this

#49 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 30,295 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 29 December 2022 - 01:34 PM

Chris, regarding Lopez and Mancini and their replacements as far as projecting 2023, it's about what they contributed last year for the O's through most of July vs what their replacements are likely to do in 2023. Givens is a clear substantial downgrade through July compared to what Lopez did. Stowers might be as good or better than the production Mancini delivered.

#50 Mike in STL

Mike in STL

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,346 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 02:46 PM


Will they trade some of that #1 farm system depth for immediate contributors?

 

- They won't - nor should they - be casual about giving away long-term team control; but they'll be more willing imo to trade for a significant piece that upgrades them. 

 

How much better is Gibson than Lyles? 

 

- He's not, it's a wash. 

 

I don't think much of Voth, Wells, Watkins, all the other JAGs who got turns last year. You aren't going anywhere with  those guys in the rotation.

 

- Right now Wells is probably the 5th. There is a bit more there than a JAG.  Means or Hall replacing him at some point is certainly possible. 

 

Does G-Rod come up right away?

 

- Elias has said multiple times yes.  They'll skip starts, and limit early innings to get him through the year. I expect he'll go from 75.2 innings to 150. 

 

If Hyde platoons Mullins again, I'll be very upset. 

 

- Mullins played 156 games, and had 608 ab's.  He was a regular, even if they rightfully started to hide him vs. LHP last year. 

 

By the way...Hyde is still here, and we saw how he managed a team in the chase. Not well. So I guess we'll see if that changes if the Orioles are in fact in the chase again, or if he's a warm body filling out lineup cards and talking to the media in another lost season, cause someone has to. If he mismanages some important games this year, it's time to move on with a serious manager.

 

- He's fine.  The better serious manager who would be upgrade you dislike and is currently managing the Mets. 

 

Mountcastle and Hays are clones of each other in the batters box. Both bats slightly trending down, and the new wall didn't help. They will be under the microscope big time. 

 

- The wall impacted them, but I don't feel they are both trending down.  Hays, maybe he is who he is.  Mountcastle is 26 in Feb.  He's a bit inconsistent. He crushed LHP in '21, and struggled vs lefties in '22.  He's scorching when he's hot.  He's going to provide good power, especially now at a very minimal cost. The obp is totally average driven.  Hays was probably the O's best player through June, and then struggled the rest of the year.  He was hurt, and that was part of the struggles, but overall he didn't produce enough. So yeah, there will be a large microscope with him... because Cowser is on the verge.  If you get through '23 and are down on Mountcastle, it's possible that someone that Mayo and Kjerstad are pushing for MLB ab's at 1st / DH in '24, but it would be really surprising to me if Mountcastle (if healthy) doesn't spend all of '23 in the regular lineup. 

 

I also feel like if any of Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, are having a great year, but the team is only around .500, or fighting for only a WC spot, then they will be traded for some 2026 prospects. Lopez had team control left, and that didn't even matter. 

 

- Nah.  None of them will be given away.  They valued Povich, they didn't value Lopez.   Elias is also admittedly hesitant to take from the ML roster.  Elias not believing the '22 team was good enough to maintain or add to, is not an indication of how he will feel about the '23 team.  All three of the players you mentioned could be traded for something, but Hays would be the only one they'd move imo for prospects. 

 

Don't like what I saw of Stowers... 

 

- He had 8 xbh's in 91 ab's.  His .724 OPS was higher than Mancini's .710 OPS in '22.   5 bb's vs. 29 k's was ugly.   20 homers and 30 doubles from him at the bottom of the order will be just fine.  The O's will need him to not be a blackhole.  He shouldn't be. 

 

 

Westburg is definitely not on the roster until August. They'll play the same clock game with him as Gunnar.

 

- I disagree  For one, Westburg isn't Gunnar.  He's a good prospect I happen to like a lot, but he's not Gunnar.  There is a non zero chance Westburg is on the OD roster. Frazier is going to have to completely rebound and lock down 2nd to keep Westburg from being up June imo.

 

Lost an All-Star from the pen, and replaced with known loser retread Givens

 

- You think there is a substantial difference from Lopez to Givens? I don't.  

 

Players will play their hearts out, but regression seems likely since there were zero upgrades, other than the experience factor for a few guys.

 

- Yeah, I'm not seeing widespread regression coming. More youth on the upswing vs. guys you have to worry about.

Can you expand on your first point? They won't be casual about trading away long-term control, but they'll be willing to trade for significant pieces that upgrade them. Maybe I'm missing something in there. If they are going to acquire anyone significant, it is going to cost you someone under long-term control. I'm not looking at Seth Johnson type moves as significant. No one should be. I'm not saying Gunnar or Adley need to be in the discussions Which they would have been for someone like Soto last year. But if your infield of the future is Gunnar, Holliday, Westburg, does that make Mayo expendable to bring in a legit MLB 1B? If the outfield staples are Mullins, Stowers, are Cowser, Kjerstad expendable to bring in a legit MLB 3rd piece? 

 

Anyone reading that might be thinking that Mayo can play corner IF, Cowser/Kjerstad can round out the OF, why trade them? I just have a hard time believing that they will hit on every single one of these guys. A lineup completely homegrown that would be in the top portion of the league offensively would be quite a feat. 

 

I'll take the under on 150 IP from G-Rod. 

 

I know Mullins appeared in 156 games, but he needs to start more of those games, especially in a playoff race. You can't improve your LHP hitting stats if you don't play against LHP. He never hit for power off lefties, but he could still hit lefties. .277 off them in 2021. .209 last year before they started benching him in August/September.  I just don't want to see the platoon continue. If he hits below .200 against lefties for a few months, okay, fine, there is something there. But the platoon shouldn't be automatic going forward for him. New season, new opportunity. 

 

Not taking that bait on Buck. Nice try though. :) Everyone laughs at Dusty. That worked out well. Hyde hasn't been given much to work with, hence the poor record. When his team was in the chase he didn't know what to do. So, if you're wanting to win, now would have been the time to get a manager who has been there before. One who has a better win% than .391.

 

SSS from Stowers. I just saw when I watched him just plain miss balls that are belt high middle of the plate 90-92 mph. We'll see. Learning curve differs for everyone. 

 

Yeah, I think there was a big difference in Lopez and Givens. 


@BSLMikeRandall

#51 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,137 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 08:10 PM

Givens is better than Lopez.

#52 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 30,295 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 29 December 2022 - 08:36 PM

Givens is better than Lopez.


Nah, but even if he has a better 2023, he very likely won't come close to being as good as Lopez was for the O's last year.

#53 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,137 posts

Posted 29 December 2022 - 09:34 PM

Nah, but even if he has a better 2023, he very likely won't come close to being as good as Lopez was for the O's last year.


I'd be shocked if Lopez repeats his 2022 Oriole performance.

#54 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 30,295 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 29 December 2022 - 10:30 PM

I'd be shocked if Lopez repeats his 2022 Oriole performance.


Yeah, I didn't imply that he would. Givens is super unlikely to replace what Lopez provided last year, which is what we should be considering when judging how the 2023 O's will do vs the 2022 O's. If they wanted to replace Lopez, they would have had to add an elite reliever rather than a meh one.
  • Mike in STL and BSLSteveBirrer like this

#55 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,618 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 30 December 2022 - 08:52 AM

Givens is better than Lopez.

I like Givens and I am glad he is back, but he is not better than what Lopez provided last year.

 

Just to clarify, I don't think Lopez would have been as good this year, as he was last year, but his contributions to the 2022 season is not easily replaced.


@mikeghg

#56 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,426 posts

Posted 30 December 2022 - 09:10 AM

I like Givens but I don't think he's as good as Lopez will be in 2023 yet alone how good he was in 2022. I have no idea why people didn't trust what Lopez did last year but do trust Perez and Tate. I think Lopez is better than those two. Bautista has passed him in my view, but not the others. Will always think it was a terrible trade.
  • dude likes this

#57 weird-O

weird-O

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,185 posts
  • LocationI'm here from downtown, I'm here from Mitch and Murray.

Posted 30 December 2022 - 09:40 AM

I think if Mateo cut down on that long swing, he could hit .250 to .260 easily. 

That would be fantastic. If he becomes a serviceable bat, they should give him a multi-year contract.  


  • Mike B likes this

Good news! I saw a dog today.


#58 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 37,618 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 30 December 2022 - 09:47 AM

That would be fantastic. If he becomes a serviceable bat, they should give him a multi-year contract.  

Mateo's swing is long and he loves to go for the long ball.  I think he and the Orioles would be better served if he hit 5 home runs as opposed to the 13 he hit last year, and have him shorten his swing and maybe use all fields.  I think his OBP last year was somewhere near .270.  If he got the average up to .245 and the OBP up to say .320, the damage he could do on the bases would greatly compensate for the loss of 8 long balls.

With the new rules. he would not only steal more bases, but he would really stress the opposing defense and pitchers.


  • weird-O likes this
@mikeghg

#59 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,311 posts

Posted 30 December 2022 - 09:51 AM


I like Givens but I don't think he's as good as Lopez will be in 2023 yet alone how good he was in 2022. I have no idea why people didn't trust what Lopez did last year but do trust Perez and Tate. I think Lopez is better than those two. Bautista has passed him in my view, but not the others. Will always think it was a terrible trade.

Lopez will likely drop off considerably but agree you cant say you trust Perez anymore than him going forward. I actually think Tate's floor is higher than Lopez but agree there shouldnt really be anymore trust

#60 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,426 posts

Posted 30 December 2022 - 10:30 AM

Lopez will likely drop off considerably but agree you cant say you trust Perez anymore than him going forward. I actually think Tate's floor is higher than Lopez but agree there shouldnt really be anymore trust

I'll agree higher floor with Tate than the others given the longer track record.

I think Perez and Lopez have better stuff, though Tate certainly was far more consistent last year than in the past.

Wasn't aiming to knock the other guys, I just really don't understand the criticism of Lopez. I imagine it's largely faith in Elias being adopted or converted into a personal evaluation. Lopez as a SP was a trainwreck but he always had the type of arsenal to seem like a guy who could do well if converted to relief. Potential doesn't mean he will succeed, but after a half year of dominance and a very good overall season, I think the odds of it being legit and him being a quality reliever are strong. I wouldn't expect All-Star level from him every year, but that's a reasonable upside and reasonable downside is still useful.

Two plus years of that during a period of contending is a lot more valuable than a middle of the 2nd ten prospect and one other deep flier, IMO. Hate the trade.
  • You Play to Win the Game and BSLRoseKatz like this




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=