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Season Coming & They Can Contend


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#21 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 09:28 AM

Yeah, I don't think a bunch of guys have to play above expectations. 

If the majority of the roster plays to their individual expectations, it's going to be a pretty good team.



#22 Mackus

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 09:32 AM

I think we're an upper 70s win team on paper. I'd bump that up to be low 80s if Rodriguez looks really good but my current expectation is a more typical rookie season rather than being electric out of the gate.

Certainly some upside if Rutschman and Henderson get to superstar status, the bullpen trio continues to dominate, and we get good performance from at least two of the questionable younger SP (Bradish, Kremer, Hall, Wells). The position player group seems to have less variance.

Biggest potential for falling to well below 500 is SP.

And no matter how good we are and how exciting things are, it'll always feel like it's the team winning in spite of a lack of support from management. However many wins we get, we will have left at least a few wins, maybe as many as ten, on the table by not doing anything this off-season. Maybe those wins matter towards a goal, maybe not, but more wins is always better.
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#23 mweb08

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 09:48 AM

They absolutely can contend as is even though Elias has helped this roster about as little as possible this offseason, and has actually hurt it if you go back to the deadline deals.

On the bright side compared to last year, the O's are slated to get a full year out of Adley and Gunner plus they're adding more young talent that raise the ceiling headlined by Grayson with Westburg and Stowers both potentially starting.

The downside of that is that young talent is more volatile and Grayson will have an innings cap.

Moving past the young talent, some concerns I have are the following:

- The BP was extremely important to the team's success last year and is likely to see regression from the returning relievers and they didn't replace the fantastic innings of Lopez

- Urias and Mateo are candidates for regression from surprisingly valuable seasons

- Trey produced well before being traded and is likely being replaced by Stowers, which could work out wonderfully, but there's risk there and imo they could use another good bat (preferably better than Trey) to be in that 1B/DH/corner OF mix.

- No more Odor! Ok, so that should be great but they seem determined to replace his at bats with someone who was basically on par with Rougned as a hitter last year (yes I know there's some more upside and better defense)

#24 weird-O

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 09:57 AM

Capable of winning 85-90 games and making the playoffs. 

 

If you make the playoffs, you've got a chance.  Basically a roll of the dice once there with the short-series. 

Thanks Chris,

 

I read your post as I was rushing out the door. Later on I realized you had actually detailed what I was asking for. My thoughts have already been detailed in other responses. I'll just say that I would have preferred to see Elias add legitimate, impact talent, so that we, as rational O's fans, don't have to hope everything breaks the right way for 162 games.  


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#25 Mike B

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 10:10 AM

I'm not going to predict the 100-loss season again. They are better. But not good enough.  I feel like they caught lightning in a bottle last year, Odor with some clutch moments despite being bad at everything else, and that will be hard to replicate, even with Adley and Gunnar playing a full season. I think they are about a 75 win team as is, factoring in the balanced schedule.

 

Will they trade some of that #1 farm system depth for immediate contributors? Last year they were in the race and the answer was no, and in fact did the opposite. Traded away contributors for more farm depth. Bullpen struggled and bats went quiet down the stretch. Did they need to be in the division race to be buyers? If they lead the division are they good enough you don't make any moves? We don't know how this FO will handle it, cause the only time the have been in contention, they still sold. 

 

I think Bradish is legit and will be an All-Star if not this season, then next, but well on his way. Kremer, incredible turnaround. If you aren't as good as you are at your best, or as bad as you are at your worst, then I expect some regression this year to a middle ground, but he's serviceable. So if one gets better, the other worse, pretty much standing pat. How much better is Gibson than Lyles? What role does Hall play? How does Means respond when he's back? I don't think much of Voth, Wells, Watkins, all the other JAGs who got turns last year. You aren't going anywhere with  those guys in the rotation. Long relief, okay, one of you.

 

Does G-Rod come up right away? I doubt it. Playing service time games and stuff. But if he does he'll be on an innings count. Maybe doesn't go past 3 IP for the first month, no more than 5 IP til June. Does he make it to the end of the year? If the O's are contending, do they shut him down? Expecting to get 160 IP isn't happening. So where do you trim it? The start, the end, or have him pitch in 3 inning stents for a while? 

 

If Hyde platoons Mullins again, I'll be very upset. Every lineup card should already have Mullins in slot one before they print them out for him to fill in the rest.

 

By the way...Hyde is still here, and we saw how he managed a team in the chase. Not well. So I guess we'll see if that changes if the Orioles are in fact in the chase again, or if he's a warm body filling out lineup cards and talking to the media in another lost season, cause someone has to. If he mismanages some important games this year, it's time to move on with a serious manager. 

 

Mountcastle and Hays are clones of each other in the batters box. Both bats slightly trending down, and the new wall didn't help. They will be under the microscope big time. If we expect Adley and Gunnar to lead the heart of the order, the offense might be as good as Hays and Mountcastle are. 

 

I also feel like if any of Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, are having a great year, but the team is only around .500, or fighting for only a WC spot, then they will be traded for some 2026 prospects. Lopez had team control left, and that didn't even matter. 

 

Didn't like what I saw in Stowers, too many meatballs just plain whiffed. But he is a lefty and in this park that gives you an advantage, so I'd give him the leash to figure it out. 

 

Mateo is a fine #9 hitter. Does the other things great and runs into a ball every now and then. But sometimes there is a lineup with four of these guys in it. 

 

Westburg is definitely not on the roster until August. They'll play the same clock game with him as Gunnar. First it'll be service time, then it'll be the at bats so he doesn't hit rookie status game. We'll hear about all these things he needs to improve on, and five days later, he will have improved on them (even if he didn't) then he'll be here. That is if the Orioles are contending. If not by then, then its the why start the clock for a losing team game. Frazier isn't getting $8M to sit. He shouldn't even be here, but that's besides the point.

 

Lost an All-Star from the pen, and replaced with known loser retread Givens and a rule 5 pick Politi who had his first inkling of minor league success at 26 years old and now must be on the 26-man or sent back to Boston. Bautista, the reason "we didn't need Lopez", suffered arm fatigue in September when in the chase was asked to do more. So you have to limit him this season. With 65 appearances he wasn't overused compared to other guys who were up into the 70s, but he was overused for him, so, that needs to be more like 55 appearances (You want that 103 MPH heater in the playoffs right?). Meaning more slack for Givens, Shaky Baker, and Rule 5 dude to pick up during the year. Not good. But it is the easiest position group to shore up at the deadline if they chose too. Who needs Lopez?

 

I thought the FO wasn't trying last year, and the players shocked us all. I think they aren't trying again this year, but we won't be shocked. Players will play their hearts out, but regression seems likely since there were zero upgrades, other than the experience factor for a few guys.

Good Stuff Mike!  I think you did a good job identifying the guys that will swing the season between say 75 and 88 games (wins).  Kremer and Bradish are the big keys to the rotation.  They are the must have guys IMO..  I am assuming Gibson and Wells are in the rotation.  I am a little higher on Wells than you are.  When he was healthy, he did fine last year.

The bullpen is key to me.  Bautista and Perez have to be as good as last year.  I think Tate, Baker and Givens will be good options for innings 6-8.

The lineup improvement rests on Adley and Gunnar and maybe Stowers.  Our lineup was not good for a large part of last year.  To this point Elias has failed in making improvements this off season.  There is going to be a lot of pressure on the young players to produce.. 


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#26 dude

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 10:29 AM

In general, I think the hitting will be better this year and the pitching worse.

 

1) MLB did something last year.  To the ball, something.  Offense was awful, like historically awful out the gate and OPS overall was down everywhere.  Some guys seemed less effected by it but as a group, it's pretty obvious, although a little better as the year went on.  Whatever that was, I think it gets reversed at some level, so offense in general will be up and pitching worse.  How that plays out with Orioles, we'll see.

 

2) I think the rule changes will improve offense also.  You just are going to have to defend parts of the field less likely to see a baseball.  I like where the Orioles are defensively right now, so it could impact the Orioles less than other teams that might not have the same athletes.  I think these changes benefit the Orioles current roster offensively and don't hurt the pitchers as much as other teams might get dinged.  You see teams like the Blue Jays making big changes to their outfield this off-season, I'd guess that's not just random.

 

We can probably do this, but if you used last years OPS at every position as the baseline, I'll take the over 9 times. 

I don't think that's much of a bold statement because I think some guys produced at the low end of their expected ranges and I'd expect them to be better anyways.


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#27 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 10:51 AM

Yeah I agree with Dude that no shift, reduced pickoffs and bigger bases is seemingly a lock for everyone's offense to get better and pitching to get worse. Definitely makes me curious how much more value Mateo could provide if his hitting is the same but he's able to steal an additional 20 bases this year.


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she/her


#28 NewMarketSean

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 11:07 AM

They may push for the wild card again.

 

But nothing is guaranteed. And this offseason hasn't inspired much confidence.


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#29 Mike B

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 11:35 AM

Yeah I agree with Dude that no shift, reduced pickoffs and bigger bases is seemingly a lock for everyone's offense to get better and pitching to get worse. Definitely makes me curious how much more value Mateo could provide if his hitting is the same but he's able to steal an additional 20 bases this year.

I think if Mateo cut down on that long swing, he could hit .250 to .260 easily.  If he does that combined with the new rules, he would steal 50 bases easily.


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#30 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 11:35 AM

They can contend, they can also suck. Not going to go as far as Randall, but the FO’s off-season has created a wide range of possibilities for this upcoming season IMO.

#31 Mike in STL

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 11:53 AM

I predict 75 wins, as currently constructed.


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#32 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:01 PM

I predict 75 wins, as currently constructed.

My bad Randall - I totally read "I'm going to predict a 100 loss season again" missed the key word... not. But yeah, I generally agree with your take here.


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#33 Mike B

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:08 PM

I predict 75 wins, as currently constructed.

If you are close to being right, it will mean that a lot of the young players struggled and Elias and company will be under fire.


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#34 dude

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:25 PM

If the '23 season was played out 1,000 times based on what's available, I think more often than not they'd be around .500. 


But in any given season, this existing group is good enough to play up and win 85-90 games. 

 

Continues to feel like there's a hole in the MLB landscape for projections better than the systems Fangraphs and ESPN, etc run.

 

The only thing I can find is a guy from ESPN+ (behind paywall) and some articles written (team based) on those results.



#35 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:31 PM

If you are close to being right, it will mean that a lot of the young players struggled and Elias and company will be under fire.

Not necessarily, although you're probably right. A lot of teams we're competing against got better. And there's still the question of, regardless of how the youth performs, was there some regression due out of last year's group anyway? Mackus outlined it pretty clearly I think. 



#36 dude

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:32 PM

If you are close to being right, it will mean that a lot of the young players struggled and Elias and company will be under fire.

 

That's a legitimate question and the pressure that's on this season.  This is year 5 so if the Orioles win anything less than 83 games (or maybe anything less than the Playoffs) and the MiL system ranking falls out of top 10 (likely with graduations), if Elias is fully in charge, it's some reflection on him. 

 

Every team has to learn to play with expectations.  The line between winning and losing is pretty thin.



#37 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:34 PM

Again, I absolutely believe their ceiling cap has a wider range than the floor cap. The arrow is still pointing up



#38 Mike in STL

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:41 PM

My bad Randall - I totally read "I'm going to predict a 100 loss season again" missed the key word... not. But yeah, I generally agree with your take here.

Oh yeah. I get it. I also listed way to many reasons why I don't think they will improve this season. So it reads as kind of scathing. 


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#39 Mike B

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:47 PM

That's a legitimate question and the pressure that's on this season.  This is year 5 so if the Orioles win anything less than 83 games (or maybe anything less than the Playoffs) and the MiL system ranking falls out of top 10 (likely with graduations), if Elias is fully in charge, it's some reflection on him. 

 

Every team has to learn to play with expectations.  The line between winning and losing is pretty thin.

Before this year the expectations for the Orioles under Elias and Hyde was to lose in historic proportions.  Last years success has changed that.  The fans are expecting grown man baseball this year and hopefully the Orioles will not do what the Tigers did and fall way back.

Elias has spent the off season trying to lower expectations so maybe he sees the pressure coming.


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#40 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 29 December 2022 - 12:47 PM

Oh yeah. I get it. I also listed way to many reasons why I don't think they will improve this season. So it reads as kind of scathing. 

Well, that's what they've earned as of now IMO. 


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