While I'm annoyed that the O's haven't done anything substantial to supplement what they have... what they have is good enough to contend.
If the '23 season was played out 1,000 times based on what's available, I think more often than not they'd be around .500.
But in any given season, this existing group is good enough to play up and win 85-90 games.
They could also of course add in season, by utilizing some existing system depth to address any glaring needs.
There is a decent option and some depth at every position.
There is more talent on the come.
Full seasons for Adley and Gunnar.
Grayson in the rotation to begin the year (he doesn't have to be ready to lead a rotation to help).
The makings of a quality rotation, with some depth.
Enough depth to help the pen. Bullpen obviously was excellent in '22.
Even if there is some regression, should expect the group to remain productive.
How good are Bradish and Kremer in '23?
What do you get out of Mullins, Mountcastle, and Hays?
Is Stowers ready to regularly produce?
Can Santander replicate his '22?
When Means is back on a mound, what's his feel for his change? How's the command?
Mateo is going to provide quality defense, and speed... is there a bit more there with the bat?
How long a leash does Frazier get at 2nd?
If Westburg lights it up in the Spring, does he definitely go back to Norfolk?
20 games less vs. the Division, could easily be a multi-game swing.
I'm not going to predict the 100-loss season again. They are better. But not good enough. I feel like they caught lightning in a bottle last year, Odor with some clutch moments despite being bad at everything else, and that will be hard to replicate, even with Adley and Gunnar playing a full season. I think they are about a 75 win team as is, factoring in the balanced schedule.
Will they trade some of that #1 farm system depth for immediate contributors? Last year they were in the race and the answer was no, and in fact did the opposite. Traded away contributors for more farm depth. Bullpen struggled and bats went quiet down the stretch. Did they need to be in the division race to be buyers? If they lead the division are they good enough you don't make any moves? We don't know how this FO will handle it, cause the only time the have been in contention, they still sold.
I think Bradish is legit and will be an All-Star if not this season, then next, but well on his way. Kremer, incredible turnaround. If you aren't as good as you are at your best, or as bad as you are at your worst, then I expect some regression this year to a middle ground, but he's serviceable. So if one gets better, the other worse, pretty much standing pat. How much better is Gibson than Lyles? What role does Hall play? How does Means respond when he's back? I don't think much of Voth, Wells, Watkins, all the other JAGs who got turns last year. You aren't going anywhere with those guys in the rotation. Long relief, okay, one of you.
Does G-Rod come up right away? I doubt it. Playing service time games and stuff. But if he does he'll be on an innings count. Maybe doesn't go past 3 IP for the first month, no more than 5 IP til June. Does he make it to the end of the year? If the O's are contending, do they shut him down? Expecting to get 160 IP isn't happening. So where do you trim it? The start, the end, or have him pitch in 3 inning stents for a while?
If Hyde platoons Mullins again, I'll be very upset. Every lineup card should already have Mullins in slot one before they print them out for him to fill in the rest.
By the way...Hyde is still here, and we saw how he managed a team in the chase. Not well. So I guess we'll see if that changes if the Orioles are in fact in the chase again, or if he's a warm body filling out lineup cards and talking to the media in another lost season, cause someone has to. If he mismanages some important games this year, it's time to move on with a serious manager.
Mountcastle and Hays are clones of each other in the batters box. Both bats slightly trending down, and the new wall didn't help. They will be under the microscope big time. If we expect Adley and Gunnar to lead the heart of the order, the offense might be as good as Hays and Mountcastle are.
I also feel like if any of Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, are having a great year, but the team is only around .500, or fighting for only a WC spot, then they will be traded for some 2026 prospects. Lopez had team control left, and that didn't even matter.
Didn't like what I saw in Stowers, too many meatballs just plain whiffed. But he is a lefty and in this park that gives you an advantage, so I'd give him the leash to figure it out.
Mateo is a fine #9 hitter. Does the other things great and runs into a ball every now and then. But sometimes there is a lineup with four of these guys in it.
Westburg is definitely not on the roster until August. They'll play the same clock game with him as Gunnar. First it'll be service time, then it'll be the at bats so he doesn't hit rookie status game. We'll hear about all these things he needs to improve on, and five days later, he will have improved on them (even if he didn't) then he'll be here. That is if the Orioles are contending. If not by then, then its the why start the clock for a losing team game. Frazier isn't getting $8M to sit. He shouldn't even be here, but that's besides the point.
Lost an All-Star from the pen, and replaced with known loser retread Givens and a rule 5 pick Politi who had his first inkling of minor league success at 26 years old and now must be on the 26-man or sent back to Boston. Bautista, the reason "we didn't need Lopez", suffered arm fatigue in September when in the chase was asked to do more. So you have to limit him this season. With 65 appearances he wasn't overused compared to other guys who were up into the 70s, but he was overused for him, so, that needs to be more like 55 appearances (You want that 103 MPH heater in the playoffs right?). Meaning more slack for Givens, Shaky Baker, and Rule 5 dude to pick up during the year. Not good. But it is the easiest position group to shore up at the deadline if they chose too. Who needs Lopez?
I thought the FO wasn't trying last year, and the players shocked us all. I think they aren't trying again this year, but we won't be shocked. Players will play their hearts out, but regression seems likely since there were zero upgrades, other than the experience factor for a few guys.
