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Balt Sun: A trade might be the Orioles’ only path to landing a top starter. They have the flexibility to pull it off. | ANALYSIS


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 11:56 AM

Balt Sun: A trade might be the Orioles’ only path to landing a top starter. They have the flexibility to pull it off. | ANALYSIS



#2 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:02 PM

So my thing is this. Based on internal talent and the expected core the window is likely to be open wider in '24 vs '23. Not saying the window isnt open and we shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. Also not saying we shouldn't be looking to the trade market to make a trade. If we do, it needs to be a guy at min with 2 years of team control left and ideally a guy who is open to signing an extension. In other words, I dont have interest in Boras clients or guys who are FAs after '23. At least not now. Much more willing to go after a pending FA in season if we are contending



#3 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:03 PM

Flexibility? Yes.

Front office personnel? No.

#4 Old Man

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:04 PM

So my thing is this. Based on internal talent and the expected core the window is likely to be open wider in '24 vs '23. Not saying the window isnt open and we shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. Also not saying we shouldn't be looking to the trade market to make a trade. If we do, it needs to be a guy at min with 2 years of team control left and ideally a guy who is open to signing an extension. In other words, I dont have interest in Boras clients or guys who are FAs after '23. At least not now. Much more willing to go after a pending FA in season.if we are contending

would that be 2034 vs 2033?



#5 Mike B

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:19 PM

So my thing is this. Based on internal talent and the expected core the window is likely to be open wider in '24 vs '23. Not saying the window isnt open and we shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. Also not saying we shouldn't be looking to the trade market to make a trade. If we do, it needs to be a guy at min with 2 years of team control left and ideally a guy who is open to signing an extension. In other words, I dont have interest in Boras clients or guys who are FAs after '23. At least not now. Much more willing to go after a pending FA in season if we are contending

I have a feeling you are going to be saying something similar the next off season, only saying the window will be open wider in 25 then 24.

.


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#6 Old Man

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:28 PM

So what excuse do we use, when this team fails to make a trade for a SP?

 

Note, I didnt even say quality. I knew that wasnt going to happen.



#7 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:28 PM

So my thing is this. Based on internal talent and the expected core the window is likely to be open wider in '24 vs '23. Not saying the window isnt open and we shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. Also not saying we shouldn't be looking to the trade market to make a trade. If we do, it needs to be a guy at min with 2 years of team control left and ideally a guy who is open to signing an extension. In other words, I dont have interest in Boras clients or guys who are FAs after '23. At least not now. Much more willing to go after a pending FA in season if we are contending

The team won 83 games in 2022. So why isn't this offseason the time to make some big moves compared to next off season?

 

Sounds like the old discussion on buying a new computer. Well they are getting faster chips and the price is dropping so we should wait. And that conversation can go like that forever. 


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#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:32 PM

I have a feeling you are going to be saying something similar the next off season, only saying the window will be open wider in 25 then 24.

.

As I said in the post, doesnt mean the Os and the FO shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. I just put in a few things that would likely be deal breakers for me pursuing a big trade



#9 Mike B

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:33 PM

The team won 83 games in 2022. So why isn't this offseason the time to make some big moves compared to next off season?

 

Sounds like the old discussion on buying a new computer. Well they are getting faster chips and the price is dropping so we should wait. And that conversation can go like that forever. 

The comments Elias has made is to me, more troubling than even his lack of action.  He is clearly, trying to lower expectations for 23.  I am a fan who was going to buy tickets, but I have decided against that.  If I was an Oriole player, I would be really aggravated at the genius GM's comments.


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#10 Mike B

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:35 PM

As I said in the post, doesnt mean the Os and the FO shouldnt be trying to win a lot of games this year. I just put in a few things that would likely be deal breakers for me pursuing a big trade

But yet you said, the window will be open more in 24, than 23.   IMO, times up, it is time for your hero and his staff to prioritize 2023.  His signings and comments, to date, tell me he is not going to do that.


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#11 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:37 PM

But yet you said, the window will be open more in 24, than 23.   IMO, times up, it is time for your hero and his staff to prioritize 2023.  His signings to date, tell me he is not going to do that.

Based on our young core improving and debuting and the vets who will still be around and in their prime yes the window should be wider in '24 vs 23



#12 Old Man

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 12:47 PM

The team won 83 games in 2022. So why isn't this offseason the time to make some big moves compared to next off season?

 

Sounds like the old discussion on buying a new computer. Well they are getting faster chips and the price is dropping so we should wait. And that conversation can go like that forever. 

I think it hinges on what your true agenda is.

 

Are you honestly trying to field a competitive team to compete.

 

Or are you playing money ball and its all smoke and mirrors, and double-talk?



#13 dude

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:05 PM

The question (without being able to read the article) isn't really about the flexibility to make a trade.  Nearly every team, including the 2019 Orioles has the flexibility to make a trade.  The question is what players are available to leverage that flexibility.  This is all about Cost of AvailabilityTM and it dominates (but is ignored) in most of these discussions.

 

For example, we've seen Chris (maybe others) discuss Zac Gallen of the DBacks. I'm not sure why he is available to the Orioles or anyone for that matter.  I'm not saying you can't talk any team out of any player, but we aren't using the "Trade Calculator" to do things like that.  If they aren't willing to trade him, you need to over-whelm them.  You start a package with GRod and Gunner, you can get their attention....but that's not what anyone here is hoping for, right?

 

Some guys are at the opposite end of the scale....still Cost of AvailabilityTM (works in every direction, including the middle).  I'd have taken a guy like Corbin who has huge negative value (+ prospect capital) to land someone like Soto.  You had a situation last summer where both Luis Castillo and Juan Soto were dealt (those situations) and we had the capacity/flexibility to be involved and we sat out.

 

The Brewers were in a situation this winter where there was a possibility (likely) to create some reasonable deal.  Brewers and Orioles were the top teams in both Divisions to just miss the playoffs and in markets that could align a relationship to work together.  While the Playoffs were happening, they should have been pulling together a deal...shape rosters to an endstate.  Brewers have headed a different direction with soft (ino) solutions but holding their core pieces.  Unless you want to do something crazy, the time to figure something out was 2 months ago, not after a fast moving market (when was the last time we were basically done the week before Christmas?) has limited the options to have to maneuver.  

 

I have no idea what the Marlins are doing. There's a reason Jeter left and they hire the first female GM and it kind of feels like they are hanging her out to dry....but Pablo Lopez is probably still available.  I'm not excited by 2 years of Pablo Lopez so I wouldn't over-pay for that...not even sure I'd pay for it, but some will think it's a good move.

 

So the question isn't about flexibility.  It's more about "who".



#14 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:16 PM

Based on our young core improving and debuting and the vets who will still be around and in their prime yes the window should be wider in '24 vs 23

Based upon the young core improving and debuting and the vets who will still be around and in their prime yes the window should be wider in 25 vs 24.



#15 bmore_ken

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:17 PM

:mrgreen:  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:



#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:21 PM

Based upon the young core improving and debuting and the vets who will still be around and in their prime yes the window should be wider in 25 vs 24.

Yup, the same or wider.  Esssnetially the same. '23 is  different IMO. Again, doesnt mean the window isnt open(it is) or that the Os shouldn't be trying to improve and make the playoffs this year. Elias has said thats his goal this offseason.



#17 dude

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:39 PM

I was going to start another thread titled "If you want to spend some money"....but it fits here, so....

 

A couple days ago, one of the national pundits suggested he wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves trade Max Fried.  Fried has 2 years remaining in arbitration and the Braves have concerns over their ability to extend him (maybe it's something else, let's stick to the report for now).  Can they not extend him because...? ...he's from LA nad wants to get back the West Coast? His agent is CAA....I don't know.

 

The Braves have been super aggressive in locking up their win now and win later team.  They really don't need to look for how many top 100 prospects they can get for him.  They can do what they want, but they are hyper-win now.  Costs are a real thing for them given their roster and they are bumping up around the Lux Tax and may want flexibility on their roster to stay below.

 

I'm guessing they would LOVE to dump Ozuna contract (2/36) for a bunch of reasons.  The also have a 9M(+opt) Rosario currently in LF that they could upgrade. Fried should make something around 12M in ARB2 this year and 20M next year.

 

Means is a much easier extension than Fried.  Fried is better than Means, but it wasn't too long ago they were closer than they are today, mostly because of Means TJS.  The Braves (or Orioles) could probably put together something like  3/35 for Means (8/12/12+3 on team option)...both sides buy into some risk.  The Orioles could trade short term performance (Fried>Means) for the cost and service risk over the next 3-5 years (Means>Fried)...it could make sense for the Braves to do the opposite.

 

Likewise LF...Stowers is a MLB-ready, 0-year player that controls cost and service for a team like the Braves where those things would have more value to them than in the Orioles younger OF-heavy organization.  The Braves don't have a top prospect OFer right now.  For the Orioles, you can eat the 9M on Rosario's contract as the 2023 bridge to get to Cowser later in the year.  

 

Anyone (certainly the Braves) could have Trey for something like 2/20 (9/9/2b/o on option).  Would they rather have a 9M trey or a 18M Ozuna?  Trey has a more versatile bat, is a better defensive contributor (DH +1B/CO) and he's not Ozuna.

 

Would Stowers(LF), Means(SP), Mancini(DH) + 44M be better for the Braves than Rosario/??, Fried (2 years) and Ozuna? when you start considering Performance, Cost and Service risks in the context of their team over the next 4 years.



#18 weird-O

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 01:43 PM

Can someone explain something to me? The article title is "A trade might be the Orioles’ only path to landing a top starter."

 

I ask this in all seriousness. What other path(s) exist? Unless I'm mistaken, there are no top starters left on the FA market. So aside from a trade, how else could they add a top starter?


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Good news! I saw a dog today.


#19 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 02:06 PM

Can someone explain something to me? The article title is "A trade might be the Orioles’ only path to landing a top starter."

I ask this in all seriousness. What other path(s) exist? Unless I'm mistaken, there are no top starters left on the FA market. So aside from a trade, how else could they add a top starter?


Prayer. Genies. Other equally likely avenues.
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#20 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 19 December 2022 - 02:27 PM

I bet Mike Elias loves him some avocados.

 

avocado.jpg


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