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BSL: Orioles Off-Season Thoughts: Facts and Opinions


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#21 Old Man

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 08:52 AM

Fact - Yes, they are entitled to how much they spend and how much money they want to make.

 

Fact - Losing Sucks, and for the record, Cito still sucks.

 

Fact - Spending Money doesn't translate into victories.

 

Fact - How I spend my disposable income supporting this team, is up to me, and will be determined by the product they field on the diamond.

 

Opinion - Im tired of hearing talk from ownership/front office and its time to walk the talk, not side step and take back what was said.



#22 dude

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 08:58 AM

Fact - Spending Money doesn't translate into victories.

 

Thanks for reminding me here.

 

Chris, that article that you linked for "correlation of spending and wins" is 100% garbage.



#23 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:13 AM

Thanks for reminding me here.

 

Chris, that article that you linked for "correlation of spending and wins" is 100% garbage.


Okay, here's others... both sides... 

 

https://calltothepen...winning-record/

 

https://blogs.fangra...closely-linked/

 

https://scholar.valp...084&context=cus



#24 Old Man

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:31 AM

I do not support small money ball.

 

I do not think we need to spend Dodger/Yankee money to field a competitive team.

 

We was competitive last year, and yes there are more youngsters moving up.

 

I think a middle tier FA Bat was doable and that would have improved the 26 man roster.



#25 dude

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:34 AM

Okay, here's others... both sides...

 

I've commented on the Craig Edwards/Fangraphs article before and he's wrong.

 

There aren't two-sides.  I didn't intend to do it this way...but in the spirit of your article...

 

FACT: There's little correlation between winning and payroll.  "Correlation" isn't words or opinion, it's numerical description of the data.  Beyond that (and I've point this out several times) 'the data' includes well correlated data of teams that AREN'T TRYING TO WIN and intentionally SLASHING THEIR PAYROLL as part of it.  Take those teams out of the data set.  The correlation gets worse, not better. 

 

OPINION: see FACT.

 

I'll repeat an offer from the past.  Doing this work (the better work) would be unique in the Baseball Information space.  I've never seen anyone link what I think would be the actual information.  I suck at the graphics and such and waiting for me to write something crosses too many birthdays, but if Jordan or someone(BSL Analyst) wanted to collaborate on doing this I'd help (and I don't need to be named in the work). 



#26 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:42 AM

I've commented on the Craig Edwards/Fangraphs article before and he's wrong.

 

There aren't two-sides.  I didn't intend to do it this way...but in the spirit of your article...

 

FACT: There's little correlation between winning and payroll.  "Correlation" isn't words or opinion, it's numerical description of the data.  Beyond that (and I've point this out several times) 'the data' includes well correlated data of teams that AREN'T TRYING TO WIN and intentionally SLASHING THEIR PAYROLL as part of it.  Take those teams out of the data set.  The correlation gets worse, not better. 

 

OPINION: see FACT.

 

I'll repeat an offer from the past.  Doing this work (the better work) would be unique in the Baseball Information space.  I've never seen anyone link what I think would be the actual information.  I suck at the graphics and such and waiting for me to write something crosses too many birthdays, but if Jordan or someone(BSL Analyst) wanted to collaborate on doing this I'd help (and I don't need to be named in the work). 


If you think Craig Edwards and the Valpo study above are wrong, show the work and do more than say they're wrong.



#27 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:43 AM


If you think Craig Edwards and the Valpo study above are wrong, show the work and do more than say they're wrong.

Oh boy. Now youve done it . 



#28 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 09:52 AM

Spending money absolutely increases your opportunity to win. And the more opportunity you have the more likely the results.



#29 Old Man

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 11:24 AM

When Elias was hired, they acknowledged the need for a firesale, as to not pay money for losing baseball.

 

They pretty much admitted to tanking for the top draft pick.

 

They were supposed to  building a powerhouse and very strong team and World Series goal and be a contender for a decade. Was the promise to the fan base, and said be patient the rewards will justify the pain.

 

Yes, COVID slowed that by 1 or even 2 years.

 

But, now we are saying something different. 



#30 bmore_ken

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 01:39 PM

The islands I've stood on for a while seem to be getting pretty crowded.  That's fine.

 

I have no issues with most of what you wrote there.  But it strikes me that you what to get there without any acknowledgement (ie accountability) of how far that it from your many, many articles and discussions from the last 4+ years.

 

Among many other points, you've said you'd be critical when the time comes if they don't spend.  You try and suggest here you're being critical.  I don't see it.  You seem willing to just go along and whatever is fine. 

I'm not seeing any real criticism either. Not that big a deal to me though. In fact nothing about the O's is a big deal to me anymore.



#31 bmore_ken

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 01:43 PM

Spending money absolutely increases your opportunity to win. And the more opportunity you have the more likely the results.

Not if you spend it on the wrong products. 



#32 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 15 December 2022 - 01:56 PM

The islands I've stood on for a while seem to be getting pretty crowded.  That's fine.

 

I have no issues with most of what you wrote there.  But it strikes me that you what to get there without any acknowledgement (ie accountability) of how far that it from your many, many articles and discussions from the last 4+ years.

 

Among many other points, you've said you'd be critical when the time comes if they don't spend.  You try and suggest here you're being critical.  I don't see it.  You seem willing to just go along and whatever is fine. 


I think one of the things the Orioles gained by building this way was financial flexibility. 
When they got to this point in their build, I expected them to spend to augment.   

Maybe the current MASN and family disputes are preventing that, or maybe that was never their intent. 
I really don't know. 

 

There are multiple ways to build teams, and each team has their own set of issues. 
I think the O's picked the right path to build, and I do believe Elias is the best thing which has happened to this organization in my lifetime. 

That doesnt make him beyond criticism. 

 

And even if the ownership is not willing to spend... at this point in the build, it's on Elias to figure out how to make it work. 






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