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Balt Sun: It’s ‘upward arc’ from here: Orioles’ ‘liftoff’ hopes not about one offseason


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#21 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:11 PM

Don't trade anyone then.  Just add through free agency.  You don't lose anyone and you get everybody plus you have a higher baseline.

 

Its utterly incomprehensible to me that you think it'd be ok to do nothing (swapping Lyles for Gibson doesn't really count as anything).

 

I think its a great position for the O's to be in that we have a passable option almost everywhere.  But the reason that's great is because we can upgrade anywhere, not because we don't need to upgrade.


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#22 mweb08

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:14 PM

Why wouldn't you lose your mind if they roll into 2023 with the exact same roster they ended 2022 with? How is that remotely acceptable for a team that (supposedly) wants to try to compete?


To beat a dead horse, I'd add that they're over 100 million below where they were in payroll the last time they were trying to win, and they were making money then.

#23 weird-O

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:16 PM


You're 100% right. That's why I'm not really convinced either way. There's room for falloff and lack of development this year for sure, which is where it becomes a tough call. IF things all worked out developmentally, I'm like yeah, we don't need free agency. But the odds of that aren't good.

 

But I'm looking at like SS, and you have Mateo and GG defense. Then you've got Henderson who could just be a star there. Then you've got Ortiz in AAA who is a lot like Mateo but with a 20 HR bat.

 

I will say I would really like to see a big bat signed to DH, and another TOR style SP, like Mack said, that adds depth and that's an area you can never have enough. But if they don't I don't know that I'll lose my mind or anything, I'll just be more worried until we see what happens.

I appreciate this post, because I really wanted to see one of the big name shortstops added, mostly because all of them come with an impact bat. So mentioning Ortiz helps me adjust my opinion on that particular position.  


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#24 JeremyStrain

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:18 PM

Don't trade anyone then.  Just add through free agency.  You don't lose anyone and you get everybody plus you have a higher baseline.

 

Its utterly incomprehensible to me that you think it'd be ok to do nothing (swapping Lyles for Gibson doesn't really count as anything).

 

I think its a great position for the O's to be in that we have a passable option almost everywhere.  But the reason that's great is because we can upgrade anywhere, not because we don't need to upgrade.


I never said don't do anything (I got cut off when responding to your other post earlier), I'm a big fan of going after Martinez or another big DH bat, and a TOR arm to add depth like you said. But I'm not going to do this doom and gloom stuff if they don't either.

 

It was one thing when the cupboard was bear and it was add or we have nothing. We in our lifetimes have never been in a situation with such a deep farm system. Most of us on here don't even realize the depths of stuff we have bubbling at the lower levels, and some of that is scary. The players not getting national mainstream attention right now are going to shock some people over the next couple years.

 

BUT I'm not saying don't add, I'm just saying I'm also really curious about what we have, and I'm not going to throw a tantrum if they don't add something and we get to see what these guys have, cause I think people are going to be surprised.


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#25 mweb08

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:39 PM


I never said don't do anything (I got cut off when responding to your other post earlier), I'm a big fan of going after Martinez or another big DH bat, and a TOR arm to add depth like you said. But I'm not going to do this doom and gloom stuff if they don't either.

It was one thing when the cupboard was bear and it was add or we have nothing. We in our lifetimes have never been in a situation with such a deep farm system. Most of us on here don't even realize the depths of stuff we have bubbling at the lower levels, and some of that is scary. The players not getting national mainstream attention right now are going to shock some people over the next couple years.

BUT I'm not saying don't add, I'm just saying I'm also really curious about what we have, and I'm not going to throw a tantrum if they don't add something and we get to see what these guys have, cause I think people are going to be surprised.


I think this applies much more to position players than the rotation. The latter could really use a top of the rotation pitcher and the team was in the perfect position entering this off-season to add one or even two of them.

Position player wise, I'd especially love someone that can upgrade a corner OF spot and/or 1B/DH. Plenty of talent, intrigue, and flexibility to be sure though.

#26 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 03:57 PM


I never said don't do anything (I got cut off when responding to your other post earlier), I'm a big fan of going after Martinez or another big DH bat, and a TOR arm to add depth like you said. But I'm not going to do this doom and gloom stuff if they don't either.

 

It was one thing when the cupboard was bear and it was add or we have nothing. We in our lifetimes have never been in a situation with such a deep farm system. Most of us on here don't even realize the depths of stuff we have bubbling at the lower levels, and some of that is scary. The players not getting national mainstream attention right now are going to shock some people over the next couple years.

 

BUT I'm not saying don't add, I'm just saying I'm also really curious about what we have, and I'm not going to throw a tantrum if they don't add something and we get to see what these guys have, cause I think people are going to be surprised.

 

I just don't understand being content with what we have rather than wanting more.  Going out and adding doesn't prevent you from seeing any of the guys you want to see.  It just tempers the downside if any of those guys fail or aren't good right away.

 

We added Gibson (after dumping Lyles).  If you really want to see a roster consisting of everything that we had last year, why not have added a better pitcher than Gibson even if it costs more money?  Would having Rodon or Verlander or Senga or Bassitt instead of Gibson make Henderson play any worse next season?  Of course not.  So if you are content with a ton of the roster, I think that's bad planning to rely on all of them to be good, but overall that's fine.  But clearly there are (or were) still spots to improve even with that mindset, and if you're only making improvements to one or two spots then you have to make the biggest upgrades possible in those few areas.  Gibson isn't the biggest improvement possible.

 

I don't understand how you can care about the Orioles and not be upset if ownership and management is not putting in any effort to be successful when they easily could do so in terms of resources.  I'm still holding out some hope that they will make those improvements and that all this will be moot.  But you saying that it'd be just fine to do nothing is impossible to understand.



#27 Mike in STL

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 04:32 PM

A picture of the arc Elias talked about has been leaked. 

 

 

 

 

_________________________________________________


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#28 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 04:33 PM

6e688776-71c2-4299-992a-cc05d1b732e7_tex



#29 Old Man

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 04:49 PM

6e688776-71c2-4299-992a-cc05d1b732e7_tex

https://h2.commercev.../1000/41481.jpg



#30 Slidemaster

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 04:58 PM

Management just don't care about winning. It's that simple. It doesn't motivate them.

#31 mdrunning

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:02 PM

Not to be a shill for Elias or anything, but we have to believe that he's out there meeting with player agents, making offers and pitching the team. Just because they're missing out doesn't mean the front office is simply sitting on its hands. Either the player thought another team was a better fit or the money fell short. 

 

I understand that sports is results-driven and right now the Orioles don't have much to show for their efforts. But how many other teams have come away empty thus far? Aaron Judge was linked to the Giants, yet the Yankees managed to keep him in the fold (which, by the way, didn't make their team any better, just more expensive). For every guy who has signed with one or another, that means 29 others didn't make that signing. The Dodgers, baseball's answer to the Denver Mint, have been very quiet thus far. 

 

For what it's worth, the Astros were last in payroll on Opening Day 2016, the year after their seemingly quantum leap to 86 wins. Has anyone noticed the extensions Houston has given out the past few years? Except for Altuve, all of them are committed only up until their early 30s. I just don't see Elias giving long-term deals to players who are already approaching that age, which is typically what makes up the lion's share of every free agent crop.



#32 weird-O

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:10 PM

Not to be a shill for Elias or anything, but we have to believe that he's out there meeting with player agents, making offers and pitching the team. Just because they're missing out doesn't mean the front office is simply sitting on its hands. Either the player thought another team was a better fit or the money fell short. 

 

I understand that sports is results-driven and right now the Orioles don't have much to show for their efforts. But how many other teams have come away empty thus far? Aaron Judge was linked to the Giants, yet the Yankees managed to keep him in the fold (which, by the way, didn't make their team any better, just more expensive). For every guy who has signed with one or another, that means 29 others didn't make that signing. The Dodgers, baseball's answer to the Denver Mint, have been very quiet thus far. 

 

For what it's worth, the Astros were last in payroll on Opening Day 2016, the year after their seemingly quantum leap to 86 wins. Has anyone noticed the extensions Houston has given out the past few years? Except for Altuve, all of them are committed only up until their early 30s. I just don't see Elias giving long-term deals to players who are already approaching that age, which is typically what makes up the lion's share of every free agent crop.

This has been an excuse for far too long. It's time to be a good fit, it's time to not fall short on $$$ As a wise puppet once said.


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#33 Slidemaster

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:13 PM

This has been an excuse for far too long. It's time to be a good fit, it's time to not fall short on $$$ As a wise puppet once said.


Making offers you know aren't competitive is the same as not trying.
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#34 weird-O

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:22 PM

Making offers you know aren't competitive is the same as not trying.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. I remember you posted this several years ago, when we were talking about how the team fell short on their offers.


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#35 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:25 PM

Not to be a shill for Elias or anything, but we have to believe that he's out there meeting with player agents, making offers and pitching the team. Just because they're missing out doesn't mean the front office is simply sitting on its hands. Either the player thought another team was a better fit or the money fell short. 

 

It depends on how short the money is whether or not credit for trying should be given.  We'll probably never get details like that, Elias runs a tight ship and you don't often hear players talk about lesser offers that they turned down.  I'm not willing to extend very much benefit of the doubt to these guys until they get something done or there is a ton more smoke.



#36 Slidemaster

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:36 PM

The more things change, the more they remain the same. I remember you posted this several years ago, when we were talking about how the team fell short on their offers.


Love it. And absolutely still true today.

#37 mdrunning

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:49 PM

Making offers you know aren't competitive is the same as not trying.

How do you know they weren't competitive?



#38 Slidemaster

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 05:57 PM


How do you know they weren't competitive?

When you say openly that you're only looking for 1 year deals, and aren't willing to go more than 2-3, you essentially are saying you're not interested in anyone in the A or B tier of FAs. Offers like that are not competitive, and will not get the job done. They know that at the time they are made.

They want more Kyle Gibsons, not Carlos Rodons, or even Chris Bassitts.

#39 mdrunning

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 06:02 PM

When you say openly that you're only looking for 1 year deals, and aren't willing to go more than 2-3, you essentially are saying you're not interested in anyone in the A or B tier of FAs. Offers like that are not competitive, and will not get the job done. They know that at the time they are made.

They want more Kyle Gibsons, not Carlos Rodons, or even Chris Bassitts.

I don't recall Elias saying that. In fact, he was recently quoted as saying he'd do a three or four-year deal if the player matched up. 

 

“We’ve had conversations already and offers already that have been more than one year,” he said. “We’ll see where this goes. I think it’s all so case-by-case that it sounds a little boring for me to answer it this way, but it’s true. It just depends on the situation and the position and the players and the dollars and everything little thing that we look at.”



#40 Slidemaster

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Posted 07 December 2022 - 06:10 PM

I don't recall Elias saying that. In fact, he was recently quoted as saying he'd do a three or four-year deal if the player matched up.


He said this afternoon they aren't looking for a pitcher on more than a 1 year deal, and he even said their "model" works best with 1 year deals, which indicates to me that this is how they plan to operate in the future.

To me your above quote about how they actually do have a multi-year deal out there sounds like incredibly lame justification for the incredibly lame attempts they're making to sign anyone of consequence.




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