57 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: It’s ‘upward arc’ from here: Orioles’ ‘liftoff’ hopes not about one offseason, GM Mike Elias says | ANALYSIS

https://www.baltimor...dcca-story.html

[You Play to Win the Game]

Lol

[DuffMan]

[dude]

Book it.

[Slidemaster]

In other words, lower those expectations, but don't hold me accountable for what I said.

If Elias doesn't make solid additions to the team this offseason I don't care how many great prospects his farm develops- he doesn't care that much about winning.

[Ravens2006]

I don't expect any remotely significant free agent addition, or trade deal that lands a proven top tier major leaguer with any real existing contract value, until Peter A has passed and the future ownership situation is settled.

[BaltBird 24]

Is Roch writing for the Sun again?

[BSLMikeLowe]

Is Roch writing for the Sun again?

 

It's the boilerplate propaganda they are giving all the local media in the post-Liftoff era. The Banner wrote essentially the same article.

 

https://www.thebalti...RKZPNRWZLKI2NU/

[mdrunning]

In other words, lower those expectations, but don't hold me accountable for what I said.

If Elias doesn't make solid additions to the team this offseason I don't care how many great prospects his farm develops- he doesn't care that much about winning.

Ellias's goal from Day 1 was to build a steady pipeline of talent to Baltimore and he hasn't deviated from that. I don't think his main focus is making splashy headlines in early December.

[JeremyStrain]

Can we be completely honest here and accept the fact that we could also not make any moves and still be as good or better than if we had? We are a generation of Free Agency. Since Reggie White kicked that door open in 1992, we have come up understanding and expecting the business side of the game, but it is also possible that while rebuilding, you could actually nail so many kids at one time, that it's actually more productive to NOT fill a hole from market but internally.

 

NOT for a second am I saying this is absolute or a good bet even, but with the way players developed and played last season, (the minors was more successful than the majors actually), especially factoring in contracts, I can see a lot of ways where you say we are better with Mateo/Ortiz/Henderson at SS than one of the big 4. Defense mostly, but the offensive upside of 2 of them aren't far off from the big market options. 3B we already have a gold glover that may still have some untapped offense in there, but Henderson is still there as well. Second base is an obvious spot currently, but with Westburg, Norby, and Vavra in the mix it's not as clear as to what upgrade you make. Mountcastle has 30 HR potential at 1B. Adley looks like he's a star. Mullins is one year off a 30/30. Hays might be the weakest of the OF options, with 20 HR potential and SOLID defense, Santander has some real pop to him and is a switch hitter. And Cowser is right behind them. Looking at the depth they added in AAA with minor league signings, (Mazara was a guy I would have dealt a LOT for a few years ago, and Mike Cameron's son...I'd be lying if I wasn't sneaky excited for those two). Even if they decide trading an OF for a SP is the way to go, we still have depth and haven't even talked about Stowers yet.

 

DH is a big glaring need for me. Need a big bat there. Martinez is intriguing for me.

 

The SP rotation we have guys that need to play and pitch, we can't sign too many. A top of the rotation guy and an innings eater would have been the dream scenario, we'd have a ton of depth. But if Grey and Hall produce, Means comes back, Gibson could end up your 4th/5th starter and fighting for a SP spot, which is a good position to be in.

 

I'm higher on prospects and youth than most, I get that, but I don't know when you factor in money vs what we have that it's really an improvement...unless a few really flame out this year.

[You Play to Win the Game]

We could, never know. Why not do some things that show that’s what you want though, by augmenting the roster when your payroll is less than this week’s legal fees for 45?

[JeremyStrain]

We could, never know. Why not do some things that show that’s what you want though, by augmenting the roster when your payroll is less than this week’s legal fees for 45?

Yeah. I don't discount the public display part of it too. Or at least if you are at this point and going...are these REALLY upgrades? Not sure, well, lets take some money and lock up some of our players, and then look at things during or after the season. Extend Adley. Extend Means. Mullins? Santander?

 

Not saying you guys don't have points. I'm just really struggling more right now than I ever have to look at what's out there and what we have and going, ok what do we think we are going to get from this guy? .275 25 HR and 10SB? Well what do we think we are going to get from what we have? Same thing? Close enough that you look at $30m vs $500k and go uhhhhhh....? How about defensively? Every time you get worse defensively you hurt the pitching too.

 

I dunno, Im not convinced either way really, but I do buy the potential we have for a change. If we have another year of development like last year? I don't think we need anyone.

[Mackus]

I'm higher on prospects and youth than most, I get that, but I don't know when you factor in money vs what we have that it's really an improvement...unless a few really flame out this year.

 

Why pick between the two?  You don't have to kill a prospect every time you sign a free agent.  You get to have everyone.  

 

Especially for pitching, where you need a ton of arms both in the rotation and the bullpen to get through the year.  Signing Rodon or even Bassitt doesn't kick Rodriguez off the team.  It kicks Krehbiel or maybe Baker off the team.  Still a role and an opportunity for everyone else, and now you have more depth.  But also kind of the same for outfield and - somewhat uniquely for this O's team given the versatility of the individual players - infield. 

 

Almost anyone you are interested in seeing what could happen in 2023 will still have a role even if we bring in 2-3 additional players via free agency or trade.  The guys that get pushed off are back-end roster guys. I like Vavra but if he loses a spot and has to go to Norfolk because we add JD Martinez, I'm fine with that. Same with Mateo getting downgraded to utility if we sign Correa.  Depth is a good thing.  Raising the talent level of your roster is a good thing.

[weird-O]

Can we be completely honest here and accept the fact that we could also not make any moves and still be as good or better than if we had? We are a generation of Free Agency. Since Reggie White kicked that door open in 1992, we have come up understanding and expecting the business side of the game, but it is also possible that while rebuilding, you could actually nail so many kids at one time, that it's actually more productive to NOT fill a hole from market but internally.

 

NOT for a second am I saying this is absolute or a good bet even, but with the way players developed and played last season, (the minors was more successful than the majors actually), especially factoring in contracts, I can see a lot of ways where you say we are better with Mateo/Ortiz/Henderson at SS than one of the big 4. Defense mostly, but the offensive upside of 2 of them aren't far off from the big market options. 3B we already have a gold glover that may still have some untapped offense in there, but Henderson is still there as well. Second base is an obvious spot currently, but with Westburg, Norby, and Vavra in the mix it's not as clear as to what upgrade you make. Mountcastle has 30 HR potential at 1B. Adley looks like he's a star. Mullins is one year off a 30/30. Hays might be the weakest of the OF options, with 20 HR potential and SOLID defense, Santander has some real pop to him and is a switch hitter. And Cowser is right behind them. Looking at the depth they added in AAA with minor league signings, (Mazara was a guy I would have dealt a LOT for a few years ago, and Mike Cameron's son...I'd be lying if I wasn't sneaky excited for those two). Even if they decide trading an OF for a SP is the way to go, we still have depth and haven't even talked about Stowers yet.

 

DH is a big glaring need for me. Need a big bat there. Martinez is intriguing for me.

 

The SP rotation we have guys that need to play and pitch, we can't sign too many. A top of the rotation guy and an innings eater would have been the dream scenario, we'd have a ton of depth. But if Grey and Hall produce, Means comes back, Gibson could end up your 4th/5th starter and fighting for a SP spot, which is a good position to be in.

 

I'm higher on prospects and youth than most, I get that, but I don't know when you factor in money vs what we have that it's really an improvement...unless a few really flame out this year.

Overall, there's nothing here that I'd argue with you about. In the past couple of weeks, I've thought about how the existing team could be better than last year, simply because they'll have a full season of the graduated players that we expect will have a real impact. But you also have to account for guys like Mateo, who could drop off offensively. And the rookies who experience the struggle of having the league adjust to them (and so they will need to adjust accordingly). But there's no way to sugar coat the rotation. They need someone to take on the lead role. Even if a prospect graduates and impresses, it's really unusual for a rookie pitcher to arrive and dominate from day one.  

[Slidemaster]

Ellias's goal from Day 1 was to build a steady pipeline of talent to Baltimore and he hasn't deviated from that. I don't think his main focus is making splashy headlines in early December.

The two are not mutually exclusive. They should not remain a sub 50 million dollar team. Can you name the last world series winner to make almost no impactful additions from FA or trade?

If you're not trying to win the World Series, why even show up?

[Mike B]

The two are not mutually exclusive. They should not remain a sub 50 million dollar team. Can you name the last world series winner to make almost no impactful additions from FA or trade?

If you're not trying to win the World Series, why even show up?

To make money!

[JeremyStrain]

Overall, there's nothing here that I'd argue with you about. In the past couple of weeks, I've thought about how the existing team could be better than last year, simply because they'll have a full season of the graduated players that we expect will have a real impact. But you also have to account for guys like Mateo, who could drop off offensively. And the rookies who experience the struggle of having the league adjust to them (and so they will need to adjust accordingly). But there's no way to sugar coat the rotation. They need someone to take on the lead role. Even if a prospect graduates and impresses, it's really unusual for a rookie pitcher to arrive and dominate from day one.  

You're 100% right. That's why I'm not really convinced either way. There's room for falloff and lack of development this year for sure, which is where it becomes a tough call. IF things all worked out developmentally, I'm like yeah, we don't need free agency. But the odds of that aren't good.

 

But I'm looking at like SS, and you have Mateo and GG defense. Then you've got Henderson who could just be a star there. Then you've got Ortiz in AAA who is a lot like Mateo but with a 20 HR bat.

 

I will say I would really like to see a big bat signed to DH, and another TOR style SP, like Mack said, that adds depth and that's an area you can never have enough. But if they don't I don't know that I'll lose my mind or anything, I'll just be more worried until we see what happens.

[Mackus]

Why wouldn't you lose your mind if they roll into 2023 with the exact same roster they ended 2022 with? How is that remotely acceptable for a team that (supposedly) wants to try to compete?

I'll be very understanding about tons of different permutations of additions, some quite modest, that would be good enough to consider them making an earnest effort. But to do close to nothing would fill me with rage. Apathy is a bad look from your front office and ownership.

[Slidemaster]

Why wouldn't you lose your mind if they roll into 2023 with the exact same roster they ended 2022 with? How is that remotely acceptable for a team that (supposedly) wants to try to compete?

That would be a catastrophic failure.

[JeremyStrain]

Why wouldn't you lose your mind if they roll into 2023 with the exact same roster they ended 2022 with? How is that remotely acceptable for a team that (supposedly) wants to try to compete?

I'll be very understanding about tons of different permutations of additions, some quite modest, that would be good enough to consider them making an earnest effort. But to do close to nothing would fill me with rage. Apathy is a bad look from your front office and ownership.

Because baseball players, especially young ones, many still in their rookie years aren't static in production. Just with improvements and development you could run out the same roster and get drastically improved production.

 

Kind of like Mike Trout (hate to use that example because he's one of the best in the game) his rookie year hitting .220 with 5 HR and 9 BB in 40G his rookie year to hitting .326 with 30HR and 63BB his 2nd year, or jumping over 100 BB his 3rd year.

 

Young players are volatile, we aren't sure where they will end up yet. None of us were expecting Mullins to break out for 30/30 when he did. And to be absolutely fair, it's also very possible some or all regress and we are worse off.

 

But when you are a team with the top farm system 2 years in a row, you're there for a reason and should lean into that a bit too.

 

I'd almost love for someone to go back through the years when a breakout team with a great farm system started trading players and signing FA and just looking at WHAT IF they had just kept their in house players, kept the pipeline full and competing and seeing what they could have been at production wise. I wonder if some of them wouldn't have been better off to stay in house long term.