12 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

...how many wins would you expect this season?

Imagine the offense is essentially the same as it was at last year's end. The rotation adds Grayson and drops Lyles. Maybe they add a complimentary piece somewhere.

How many more wins, if any at all, do you expect to come from players maturing together at the big league level?

[bmore_ken]

They won 83 last season, I'd go 79. You don't know what GR will give you and Means likely won't be back until at least the AS break. I think they have enough offense to compete most nights. Starting pitching is going to decide how many games they win.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Fangraphs is your friend


Theyd be around .500 if they completely had to stay in house. Not a single addition other than lets say minor league deals

[dude]

...how many wins would you expect this season?

Imagine the offense is essentially the same as it was at last year's end. The rotation adds Grayson and drops Lyles. Maybe they add a complimentary piece somewhere.

How many more wins, if any at all, do you expect to come from players maturing together at the big league level?

 

My guess is they will get a couple things done, but we'll see.

 

1) Last years win total isn't the start point.  We shouldn't have to say that, but we probably do.

 

2) I'd expect the offense to be better next year than last year, even with no changes.  They were terrible at a couple positions and several of the regulars had soft years.  Could easily expect guys like Mullins, Mountcastle and Hays to be in the .750-.800 range.  They'll get more out of C.  They'll get more out of 2B.  They'll get more out of 3B.  I'd expect the collective defense to be better.  

 

3) ZiPs/FG had the average wins at 78.  There's a bell curve around a number somewhere in there.  If you put the over/under at 78.5, I'd probably take the over.  I'd put the Playoff % in the 10-15% range.

[Slidemaster]

Fangraphs is your friend


Theyd be around .500 if they completely had to stay in house. Not a single addition other than lets say minor league deals

I didn't ask what Fangraphs said. I want to know the opinion of others.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I didn't ask what Fangraphs said. I want to know the opinion of others.

ROFL. 

[BaltBird 24]

I'd expect the bullpen to be worse next year. Starting pitching is a wildcard. Does Bradish improve? Is Rodriguez legit? Does Kremer maintain?

Do nothing and I'd expect 74-78 wins.

[mdrunning]

If the Orioles did nothing of consequence. . .I'd be really pissed.

[BSLRoseKatz]

They were 67-55 after Adley got called up, a pace of 88.9 wins. A full season of Adley + no Odor being a black hole at second? I'd think 85 wins is certainly possible even with possible regression for the bullpen or other areas. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Bullpen falls off a bit.

 

Offense isn't any better.

 

SP might be pretty similar. Could be slightly better or could be worse.

 

But here's the thing nobody has talked about yet. Its just not the O's standing still that hurts as much as other teams improving. I think we'd be down around 73-75.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Bullpen falls off a bit.

Offense isn't any better.

SP might be pretty similar. Could be slightly better or could be worse.

But here's the thing nobody has talked about yet. Its just not the O's standing still that hurts as much as other teams improving. I think we'd be down around 73-75.

The more balanced schedule beginning next season would probably counteract that. Less games against the AL East never hurts. I do think the offense will improve organically. They have to augment though. Beginning to finally believe they will, too. We’ll know more here very soon.

Winter meetings kickoff tomorrow night.

[Slidemaster]

Bullpen falls off a bit.

Offense isn't any better.

SP might be pretty similar. Could be slightly better or could be worse.

But here's the thing nobody has talked about yet. Its just not the O's standing still that hurts as much as other teams improving. I think we'd be down around 73-75.

I think the offense might get better through the continued development of young players. It is reasonable to expect a moderate bump from Adley and Gunnar I think, at least.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I think the offense might get better through the continued development of young players. It is reasonable to expect a moderate bump from Adley and Gunnar I think, at least.

Agreed. Gunnar had a .788 OPS last year and Odor had a .632 OPS. Make your everyday infield some rotation of Gunnar/Mateo/Urias at 3B/SS/2B and it should be more productive just from those at-bats not going to Odor.