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BSL: Lamar Jackson. Step Up, or Step Out.


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#301 bmore_ken

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 01:07 PM

. With that said, those other things aren't in line to be allocated roughly 20% of the salary cap for the next 5 years. 

 

I sincerely don't know where the Ravens go from here. 

I don't see how they don't sign him considering the alternatives. Get an OC that knows what to do with him 



#302 bmore_ken

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 01:11 PM



Mahomes and Allen both have massive contracts. Their front offices have still been able to put great overall teams together around their big contracts. But I guess the Ravens can't do that for some reason ? Is that the fear?

From what I've seen that seems to be the fear. and to that I say BS. Every team at some point has to deal with this in some capacity. I mean do we really want to be  the situation teams like the Steelers or Panthers are in now? And it's not like we have all pros at every position now.



#303 Biggsy

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 02:38 PM

It would change because a 27, 28 year old Lamar with NFL miles on his body isn't going to be able to make something out of nothing with his legs as often. How many drives has he extended with a 3rd down scramble? How many negative plays has he avoided with his shiftiness? The fact is that those things aren't going to improve as he ages. Therefore, by default, his skills as a passer must improve. Without cleaning up his mechanics and/or putting better talent around him, where does that improvement come from?



We're talking about a QB. Sure, he runs a lot. But he still isn't taking the workload of a RB who gets 300+ touches a season. I would say we don't have to worry about an athletic breakdown until 30. Even then, he's probably still one of, if not the best athlete playing QB.

As for where the improvement comes from, maybe a better offensive system?

#304 hallas

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 03:01 PM

I feel like a lot of the fear about Lamar's cap number stems from a strongly mistaken belief that Lamar's cap hit is going to be 45 million or 50 all 5 years.  In reality a 5 year fully guaranteed extension is going to very likely have 2 years with a lower cap hit than 2022.  So at least 2 out of the 5 years, we are going to be at least as competitive as we are right now.  If you work some contract magic it might be possible to come up with a 3rd year with roughly the same cap number as this year, at the cost of more dead money at the end of the deal.  The other mitigating factor is that the cap is going to be probably about 40% higher than it is right now at the end of his deal.

 

If we want to let Lamar go at the end of his extension, we can absorb the dead money because of the cap will be high enough that it won't be a significant percentage.  And year 1 with a newly drafted QB isn't going to be all that fruitful anyway, so we can just punt that year.

 

WIth a drafted QB, you lose 1 year out of 4 because rookie QBs are never very good.  That gives you 3 years.  So you definitely have the advantage of more available years with a QB on a rookie deal, but that largely depends on you being able to draft and develop a QB on his rookie deal, and the miss rate for QBs is high enough that this becomes dicey fast.



#305 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 03:59 PM

I don't see how they don't sign him considering the alternatives. Get an OC that knows what to do with him 

 

What type of system do you suggest for Lamar? Can he succeed in a spread offense where he throws quick passes 40 times a game? Should we try to adopt a Shanahan-esque, run heavy, play action offense? I sincerely don't know what kind of system should be installed.

 

Quite frankly, Roman's system seemed to work fine in '19 and '20 but what's changed since then? The only thing that I can point to definitively is the health and availability of our best offensive players that make the system go; specifically Stanley, Dobbins, Edwards and of course Lamar. 

 

I'm really stuck here because I don't believe the organization can put a respectable WR corps on the field. The only time it's happened in the last 20 years, we won a super bowl. We find tight ends, we find running backs but wide receiver drafting, development, acquisition and retention has been an abject failure here. The Derrick Mason signing and Anquan Boldin trade are by far the 2 best WR acquisitions but then we gave Boldin away for next to nothing and he went on to have back to back 1000 yard seasons in San Fran (in Greg Roman's offense, ironically enough). Torrey Smith was far and away the most productive WR we've ever drafted, yet we let him walk in FA and did nothing to replace his production at WR. This past off season, we knew Hollywood was going to be moved, yet we made no effort to replace his production at WR.

 

Since the Ravens cannot seem to adequately stock the WR position, it makes sense for them to have a run first system that features versatile TEs that can both block and receive. We currently have that system but that system seems to have run its course here. I just feel like we're stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place.


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#306 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:04 PM

We're talking about a QB. Sure, he runs a lot. But he still isn't taking the workload of a RB who gets 300+ touches a season. I would say we don't have to worry about an athletic breakdown until 30. Even then, he's probably still one of, if not the best athlete playing QB.

As for where the improvement comes from, maybe a better offensive system?

 

Lamar doesn't run the ball 300 times a year but he has been around 150 carries a year in his career. Combine that with hits in the pocket and there is certainly a decent amount of wear and tear. I don't suspect he's going to fall off a cliff like RBs do at age 30 but to think he won't see some decline in his speed and elusiveness over the next few years is being naïve. 

 

My previous post discusses systems. I truthfully don't know what that would be. What are Lamar's best attributes? Accuracy on short passes and timing routes? Not really. Deep ball accuracy? He's ok with the deep ball but inconsistent at times. Are we going to put him into a drop back passing system? That wouldn't make any sense. I literally don't know where we go from here.

 

If we decide to move forward with Jackson, cool but what is the organization going to do to help him flourish?


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#307 Mackus

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:15 PM

If we decide to move forward with Jackson, cool but what is the organization going to do to help him flourish?

 

It's gonna be a similar offensive style.  They hopefully aren't gonna try to square peg him into someone he's not.  It'll be based around the option run-game and using the QB as an extra player, passing will be heavy play-action.  

 

I think the biggest place to improve is in the quality of the routes and the quality of the receivers. Routes have improved a little bit, IMO, we don't see receivers bunched up as much this year and last as we did two or three years ago, but we also don't see schemes that lead to receivers getting one-on-one matchups or even wide open as we see a lot of other places.  Receiver quality has plummeted, this room is terrible especially after the Bateman injury but was questionable before that.  Andrews is a stud, but nobody else is even league average.  I can't say if its because the players all stink or because they're used poorly, I would certainly listen to those who say that Duvernay and maybe others could be effective if Roman and the passing coordinator (can't even recall who that is) would use him correctly.

 

The new thing that I think would be most beneficial for Lamar is to start using his backs as pass-catchers more.  He hasn't ever done that much or done it that well when they try.  But its not something particularly different from the things he does well.  


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#308 hallas

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:30 PM

Lamar doesn't run the ball 300 times a year but he has been around 150 carries a year in his career. Combine that with hits in the pocket and there is certainly a decent amount of wear and tear. I don't suspect he's going to fall off a cliff like RBs do at age 30 but to think he won't see some decline in his speed and elusiveness over the next few years is being naïve. 

 

My previous post discusses systems. I truthfully don't know what that would be. What are Lamar's best attributes? Accuracy on short passes and timing routes? Not really. Deep ball accuracy? He's ok with the deep ball but inconsistent at times. Are we going to put him into a drop back passing system? That wouldn't make any sense. I literally don't know where we go from here.

 

If we decide to move forward with Jackson, cool but what is the organization going to do to help him flourish?

 

On a numbers basis Lamar deals with pressure about 80-100 times less per season than the most pressured quarterbacks (Mahomes and Allen are almost always at the top of the list.)

 

If you compare Lamar to someone like Allen then he compares very favorably in terms of opportunity for hits.  Compared to Mahomes Lamar is open to hits a bit more often, but its not a huge difference.

 

example: 2020, Allen had 280 pressures and 86 rushes.  Mahomes had 270 pressures and 28 rushes.  Lamar had 194 pressures and 129 rushes.  These numbers are unlikely to be drastically different this year over a full season, as they're all on pace for roughly the same usage and pressure.

 

So I don't think it's true that because Lamar runs the ball often, he's more prone to injury, especially because he tends to do a good job of controlling his hits when he runs.

 

In terms of playing to his strengths, some of his accuracy numbers don't entirely make sense.  For example, he's improved by 7% on midrange balls this year, and he's been one of the best in the league on them (10-19 yards target depth.) But his deep ball accuracy since Bateman went out has been god awful.  I don't feel like a naturally inaccurate thrower would be money at 15 yarders, and then forget how to throw a football because the target was 10 yards farther downfield.

 

There is probably a small sample size caveat for all of this, but not having been exposed to much of this data before, it's really hard to grasp what qualifies as a sufficient sample size.


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#309 Mackus

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:40 PM

So I don't think it's true that because Lamar runs the ball often, he's more prone to injury, especially because he tends to do a good job of controlling his hits when he runs.

 

This is a big part of why I'm not much more concerned with injury risk for Lamar compared to other QBs.  I do think he's at an elevated risk compared to other guys, but only slightly, and the risk is managed because of exactly the same reason you mention.



#310 Ravens2006

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:50 PM

Maybe the numbers are out there somewhere officially, but my eyes and fading memory tell me that Lamar was most effective all around when Roman was using more 2 and 3 back sets around him. The sets the use now don't seem very similar to the 2019 and some of 2020 form overall. More single back and empty sets. With a lesser offensive line.

So much of what makes / made Lamar so effective is the fact that in that heavier RPI oriented scheme, DEs and LBs and even safeties had more options to worry about and keep an eye on from the snap. That causes just a moment of hesitation that allows targets to run a little more free and space down field.

Roman doesn't run what Roman (to his credit) worked SO WELL before. He got out of it quickly in the 2019 TEN playoff game, and has never gotten back to it completely...
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#311 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 04:57 PM

On a numbers basis Lamar deals with pressure about 80-100 times less per season than the most pressured quarterbacks (Mahomes and Allen are almost always at the top of the list.)

 

If you compare Lamar to someone like Allen then he compares very favorably in terms of opportunity for hits.  Compared to Mahomes Lamar is open to hits a bit more often, but its not a huge difference.

 

example: 2020, Allen had 280 pressures and 86 rushes.  Mahomes had 270 pressures and 28 rushes.  Lamar had 194 pressures and 129 rushes.  These numbers are unlikely to be drastically different this year over a full season, as they're all on pace for roughly the same usage and pressure.

 

So I don't think it's true that because Lamar runs the ball often, he's more prone to injury, especially because he tends to do a good job of controlling his hits when he runs.

 

In terms of playing to his strengths, some of his accuracy numbers don't entirely make sense.  For example, he's improved by 7% on midrange balls this year, and he's been one of the best in the league on them (10-19 yards target depth.) But his deep ball accuracy since Bateman went out has been god awful.  I don't feel like a naturally inaccurate thrower would be money at 15 yarders, and then forget how to throw a football because the target was 10 yards farther downfield.

 

There is probably a small sample size caveat for all of this, but not having been exposed to much of this data before, it's really hard to grasp what qualifies as a sufficient sample size.

 

I don't think Lamar is more prone to injury but for a guy who's best attributes are speed and athleticism, those are going to be the first things to wane as he ages. To counteract the loss of his legs as a consistent weapon, his passing prowess needs to make up for that. Will Jackson's skill set improve? Will the Ravens put a better supporting cast around him? Will a change to the system be what he needs? If so, what kind of a system do you go to? Or, do you keep the basic parameters of Roman's running game but add more modern passing concepts (better spacing, bunch formations that utilize picks/rubs)?


@primetime667083

 

"Just remember, whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right." -Stewie Griffin


#312 Mackus

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 05:02 PM

I don't think he'll lose his legs as a consistent weapon in his mid-20s.  Its a big concern for the next contract, not so much for this one.

 

The rest of your questions and concerns are all valid, but I still think the sum total of all of those is less risky with a higher expectation of success than the alternate path of having to figure out your next QB even if you have tons of cap space and some extra draft picks to play with.  I think things are getting closer to the inflection point of where that answer flips, but I'm still not at that point yet.  We'll see how Lamar plays when he comes back and what the QB market looks like in the offseason.



#313 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 05:02 PM

Maybe the numbers are out there somewhere officially, but my eyes and fading memory tell me that Lamar was most effective all around when Roman was using more 2 and 3 back sets around him. The sets the use now don't seem very similar to the 2019 and some of 2020 form overall. More single back and empty sets. With a lesser offensive line.

So much of what makes / made Lamar so effective is the fact that in that heavier RPI oriented scheme, DEs and LBs and even safeties had more options to worry about and keep an eye on from the snap. That causes just a moment of hesitation that allows targets to run a little more free and space down field.

Roman doesn't run what Roman (to his credit) worked SO WELL before. He got out of it quickly in the 2019 TEN playoff game, and has never gotten back to it completely...

 

I had the same feelings about the offense as a whole. We gravitated away from that diamond pistol formation that creates so much doubt in the defense's mind; why....I don't know. 

 

Interestingly enough, the number of passes Lamar throws from RPO sets have not varied much over the last few years. Per PFR, this year, he's thrown from RPO 56 times, last year it was 63 times and it was in the 70s in both 2019 and 2020 (I forgot to jot it down). He does seem to complete passes at higher percentage from the RPO (2019 was the exception) and he gets sacked much less as well.


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#314 hallas

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 05:45 PM

I don't think Lamar is more prone to injury but for a guy who's best attributes are speed and athleticism, those are going to be the first things to wane as he ages. To counteract the loss of his legs as a consistent weapon, his passing prowess needs to make up for that. Will Jackson's skill set improve? Will the Ravens put a better supporting cast around him? Will a change to the system be what he needs? If so, what kind of a system do you go to? Or, do you keep the basic parameters of Roman's running game but add more modern passing concepts (better spacing, bunch formations that utilize picks/rubs)?

 

 

I think you can more or less keep the same parameters of Roman's running game and introduce better passing concepts and find someone that can keep the route running more crisp.

 

But the personnel has to improve too.  The Ravens have correctly invested heavily in the offensive line, but pretty much nowhere else except for tight end, where they got Andrews to sign an insanely team-friendly deal.

 

The running game still 100% revolves around Lamar and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.  There are very few other QBs in the league that can make this system work, especially not with the RB room we have right now.  I think as time passes and Lamar's legs are less available he's going to tilt more toward handing it off for runs instead keeping it, but as long as he has 5-8 times per game where the defense has to account for him as a runner it should still be effective.  Also as long as we limit his running frequency he should still keep most of his top-end speed.  Assuming he's around a 4.3 runner I doubt he'd degrade to much worse than a 4.4 or 4.45 runner by the time he's 30, which is still pretty fast and in the range of the fastest QBs in the league (Fields ran a 4.45, Murray was down to 4.38 but it was hand-timed so we'll call it ~4.45.) It really seems like the availability of his top-end speed becomes the issue as he ages, not his actual top-end speed.


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#315 Biggsy

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 06:23 PM

Lamar doesn't run the ball 300 times a year but he has been around 150 carries a year in his career. Combine that with hits in the pocket and there is certainly a decent amount of wear and tear. I don't suspect he's going to fall off a cliff like RBs do at age 30 but to think he won't see some decline in his speed and elusiveness over the next few years is being naïve.

My previous post discusses systems. I truthfully don't know what that would be. What are Lamar's best attributes? Accuracy on short passes and timing routes? Not really. Deep ball accuracy? He's ok with the deep ball but inconsistent at times. Are we going to put him into a drop back passing system? That wouldn't make any sense. I literally don't know where we go from here.

If we decide to move forward with Jackson, cool but what is the organization going to do to help him flourish?



Lamar ran a pro-style offense pretty damn good at Louisville. Not sure why everyone thinks it's impossible for him to do so now. I honestly think Roman's elementary passing schemes are part of what's holding him back. I think a Shanahan style offense would fit him extremely well. Not so sure about a spread style. But he's not inaccurate. under 20 yards, he's as accurate as any other QB in the league. Since 2019, he has been in the upper third in YPA. He has a strong arm as well. The only offense I would shy away from is an air raid style offense. I really think Lamar can fit into almost any offensive system. We just need a creative mind that knows how to design a running and passing scheme.
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#316 Mackus

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 06:25 PM

Are the only breakdowns under 10, 10-20, and 20+? 20+ seems like a narrow cutoff for medium versus deep. Are there just very few passes that are actually 25 or 30+ yards down field?

#317 hallas

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Posted 05 December 2022 - 06:30 PM

Are the only breakdowns under 10, 10-20, and 20+? 20+ seems like a narrow cutoff for medium versus deep. Are there just very few passes that are actually 25 or 30+ yards down field?

 

The pass breakdowns are behind LOS, 0-9, 10-19, and 20+.  This is air yards, not actual yardage gained.  The average depth of target on "deep" balls by Lamar is 30.3 yards.  Lamar does throw the ball slightly farther than average on balls classified as "deep" - he's ranked 9th out of 38 players with at least 13 deep ball attempts.  You could in theory go farther out, but I believe playerprofiler also uses 20+ as their cutoff for deep.

 

For the average player, this percentage seems to account for about 10-15% of throws.  So you would run into sample size issues I think if you were to stretch out your definition of "deep" beyond 20 yards.


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#318 BSLJamieSieck

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Posted 06 December 2022 - 09:45 AM

Lamar ran a pro-style offense pretty damn good at Louisville. Not sure why everyone thinks it's impossible for him to do so now. I honestly think Roman's elementary passing schemes are part of what's holding him back. I think a Shanahan style offense would fit him extremely well. Not so sure about a spread style. But he's not inaccurate. under 20 yards, he's as accurate as any other QB in the league. Since 2019, he has been in the upper third in YPA. He has a strong arm as well. The only offense I would shy away from is an air raid style offense. I really think Lamar can fit into almost any offensive system. We just need a creative mind that knows how to design a running and passing scheme.

 

I do think the Roman system has a shelf life. Especially now that Chicago and Philly are doing similar concepts with dual threat QBs, defenses around the league are better prepared. It also doesn't help that several major sports commentators have gone on Twitter to express in great detail how awful the passing concepts are in the Ravens' offense.


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#319 Old Man

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Posted 06 December 2022 - 09:51 AM

I don't see how they don't sign him considering the alternatives. Get an OC that knows what to do with him 

At this point, I have very slim probability that they will sign him.

 

They had him, had plenty of time to negotiate a deal, if they felt the desire.

 

Now, he is good to get whine and dined on the FA circuit, and land somewhere they showed him the money and love.



#320 Mackus

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Posted 06 December 2022 - 10:38 AM

At this point, I have very slim probability that they will sign him.

 

They had him, had plenty of time to negotiate a deal, if they felt the desire.

 

Now, he is good to get whine and dined on the FA circuit, and land somewhere they showed him the money and love.

 

There is no FA circuit if he gets the exclusive tag.


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