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Balt Sun: Orioles roundtable: Biggest offseason need, most surprising player and predicting next year’s breakout performer


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 10 October 2022 - 07:46 AM

Balt Sun: Orioles roundtable: Biggest offseason need, most surprising player and predicting next year’s breakout performer



#2 Mike B

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Posted 10 October 2022 - 11:09 AM

Add a good starter.  That should be on every list.

 

Add an impact bat...


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#3 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 09:46 AM

There isn't a true slugger on the roster right now, or anyone who is anything more than a No. 3 SP. Make it happen, post haste.

#4 weird-O

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 10:32 AM

Is Means on schedule to be ready for Spring Training? That's a big addition to start with. Not that I'm suggesting that they sit tight with whose in house. Just saying the rotation will improve with his return alone, so that seems like a plus.


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#5 Mike B

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 10:39 AM

Is Means on schedule to be ready for Spring Training? That's a big addition to start with. Not that I'm suggesting that they sit tight with whose in house. Just saying the rotation will improve with his return alone, so that seems like a plus.

I think the earliest we see Means on a mound is late May.


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#6 BobPhelan

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 01:19 PM

I think the earliest we see Means on a mound is late May.


I’m thinking late June, July.
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#7 Mike B

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 01:40 PM

I’m thinking late June, July.

I agree.  I think they should treat Means as a bonus.  Work the off season like he is not going to be available.  If he comes back strong in July, it is like adding a quality starter without having to give up prospects.


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#8 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 02:20 PM

I agree.  I think they should treat Means as a bonus.  Work the off season like he is not going to be available.  If he comes back strong in July, it is like adding a quality starter without having to give up prospects.

 

Absolutely agree.  Plus, there is very little chance that whoever are the 5 best guys when the season opens will all still be healthy and pitching well enough to remain in the rotation by July.  SP attrition is significant.  

 

Fill the rotation and then Means can be the de facto trade deadline acquisition that helps fill a need.  Going into the season needing to fill that spot with scotch tape and bubblegum until Means is back would be a terrible idea.


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#9 dude

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 04:10 PM

There isn't a true slugger on the roster right now, or anyone who is anything more than a No. 3 SP. Make it happen, post haste.

 

I just lined through the pitching to isolate it from the first part.

 

When you say you want a slugger, who are you talking about.  You can't go to the super-market to the slugger aisle.

 

They aren't buying any of the top SSs.  They just aren't (if I'm wrong, great).  There is zero in their DNA now or ever that suggests that's a thing.  What they can spend and what they will spend are not the same thing.  They are not putting 30M per into anyone.

 

So take FAs like Bogearts, Correa (don't want him regardless), Turner (not really a slugger) and Swanson (not a slugger) off the table.  They aren't getting Arenado.  I've seen Abreu mentioned multiple times, he's a soon-to-be 36 yr old Cuban happy playing in Chicago with that Cuban group of players and Santander has more power than him..

 

We could have had ESuarez for free.  We could have been in on Olson and done the extension Atlanta did.  We could have been in on Freeman.  We could have traded for a true slugger in Soto recently and they didn't even pretend to care. There's lots of things they could have done and now that there's basically nothing to do...now we're going to get all excited about pursuing guys?

 

I'll play the other 29 teams or a FA's agent, let's discuss who you want.

 

You want a 33-year old Stanton?  ...because the Yankees would love to move what they can there.

You want to buy low on Javy Baez and play him at 2B?

 

I am ALL for doing stuff, but there's a reality about what's available and there's the uglier reality about what they'd even be willing to do.



#10 Mackus

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 04:13 PM

Turner, Abreu, and Verlander. Only unreasonable from the standpoint that the people in charge aren't gonna do it.

#11 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 06:38 PM

I just lined through the pitching to isolate it from the first part.

When you say you want a slugger, who are you talking about. You can't go to the super-market to the slugger aisle.

They aren't buying any of the top SSs. They just aren't (if I'm wrong, great). There is zero in their DNA now or ever that suggests that's a thing. What they can spend and what they will spend are not the same thing. They are not putting 30M per into anyone.

So take FAs like Bogearts, Correa (don't want him regardless), Turner (not really a slugger) and Swanson (not a slugger) off the table. They aren't getting Arenado. I've seen Abreu mentioned multiple times, he's a soon-to-be 36 yr old Cuban happy playing in Chicago with that Cuban group of players and Santander has more power than him..

We could have had ESuarez for free. We could have been in on Olson and done the extension Atlanta did. We could have been in on Freeman. We could have traded for a true slugger in Soto recently and they didn't even pretend to care. There's lots of things they could have done and now that there's basically nothing to do...now we're going to get all excited about pursuing guys?

I'll play the other 29 teams or a FA's agent, let's discuss who you want.

You want a 33-year old Stanton? ...because the Yankees would love to move what they can there.
You want to buy low on Javy Baez and play him at 2B?

I am ALL for doing stuff, but there's a reality about what's available and there's the uglier reality about what they'd even be willing to do.


The name I *want* to say is Ohtani, but they're not doing that. I'd investigate Trout too, but they won't do that either.

I think Laureano is a lot better than he played last year and there could be an interesting buy-low opportunity. The Rockies aren't doing anything with Kris Bryant, and I still believe he can hit. How are the White Sox feeling about Eloy Jimenez?

#12 dude

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 10:18 PM

The name I *want* to say is Ohtani, but they're not doing that. I'd investigate Trout too, but they won't do that either.

 

Others have started these names and I'm not sure why.  Trout isn't available from both the Team (LAA) and Player (5/10) perspectives.  The Orioles could trade for a 30M Ohtani just for 2023, he would do and say the right things....but why would they do that?  He isn't signing in Baltimore.  He's an international superstar and needs either the NY or LA markets to meet those broader needs.  Baltimore has nothing for him.  Nothing.  Even his salary is largely irrelevant (it's not) given his marketability.

 

...but over the last year plus, there's been a number of targets that the Orioles could have pursued.  We've just passed.  Now we dream about grand targets that don't exist.  Awesome.

 

I think Laureano is a lot better than he played last year and there could be an interesting buy-low opportunity. The Rockies aren't doing anything with Kris Bryant, and I still believe he can hit. How are the White Sox feeling about Eloy Jimenez?

 

So I guess my thoughts are...so what.  Laureano and Bryant are the types of targets you acquire when you're leveraging Cost of Availability to build some type of Playoff opportunity.  Laureano isn't a 'slugger'.  Is Kris Bryant a 'slugger'?  He's owed 158M over the next 6 years, has back problems and is 31 next year.  If we wanted him, we could likely get him, but how does that project in Baltimore?  We lost 31 HRs last year and the top 4 guys are all RHed....do any of these RHed bats want to come to Baltimore?

 

I think the CWS are trying to compete and like the Cuban connections they have on that roster.  I guess everyone is available for the right price.  I wouldn't pay whatever the price is for Jiminez.  The guys ok, but he's a defensive hole and he's been hurt a lot (55 and 84 games the last 2 full seasons).

 

I'm not trying to just beat up your answers, but if we demand sluggers now, we should have some perspective on who those guys are, Cost of Availability and some perspective of how it improves the team.

 

Those were your first 3...I walk across all other 29 teams and I honestly can't find guys I really want.  There's been plenty of guys I wanted and I've discussed them all of the time.  Most of them actually get traded in packages we could have been involved in.  Now the landscape is pretty bare and everyone is hard to get someone.  Kind of convenient for a team most interested in doing nothing.  



#13 dude

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Posted 11 October 2022 - 10:32 PM

Turner, Abreu, and Verlander. Only unreasonable from the standpoint that the people in charge aren't gonna do it.

 

I'm a fan of Turner, but he's not getting 35+M for 8+ years from me.  If he wants to come to Baltimore, we'll figure something out.  I have no idea why he would.  Maybe he'll surprise us.  I have zero reasons to believe he wants to be in Baltimore.

 

If you made me pick between Mountcastle, Santander and Abreu for 1B/DH in Baltimore I'd leave Abreu off.  And that's before cost.  He'll be 36, would take 3 or 4 years to talk him away from Chicago.  Another RHed bat that would have no interest in Baltimore.  Why didn't we include Mountcastle++ for Olson?  We could afford the extension, LHed bat, excellent defense....I made that argument.

 

I'm OK with Verlander, but I'd rather go get Woodruff and Manaea for half the total cost and probably be better for it.  I doubt we do that, but that's probably the best you could reasonably do.  I argued for Verlander back in 2017 (remember that Steve?).....now we want to chase a career year into his 40s with 40M per?  He can talk me into signing him, but he's going to need to want to be here.  Don't see it at this point.



#14 Slidemaster

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 01:08 AM

Others have started these names and I'm not sure why. Trout isn't available from both the Team (LAA) and Player (5/10) perspectives. The Orioles could trade for a 30M Ohtani just for 2023, he would do and say the right things....but why would they do that? He isn't signing in Baltimore. He's an international superstar and needs either the NY or LA markets to meet those broader needs. Baltimore has nothing for him. Nothing. Even his salary is largely irrelevant (it's not) given his marketability.

...but over the last year plus, there's been a number of targets that the Orioles could have pursued. We've just passed. Now we dream about grand targets that don't exist. Awesome.


So I guess my thoughts are...so what. Laureano and Bryant are the types of targets you acquire when you're leveraging Cost of Availability to build some type of Playoff opportunity. Laureano isn't a 'slugger'. Is Kris Bryant a 'slugger'? He's owed 158M over the next 6 years, has back problems and is 31 next year. If we wanted him, we could likely get him, but how does that project in Baltimore? We lost 31 HRs last year and the top 4 guys are all RHed....do any of these RHed bats want to come to Baltimore?

I think the CWS are trying to compete and like the Cuban connections they have on that roster. I guess everyone is available for the right price. I wouldn't pay whatever the price is for Jiminez. The guys ok, but he's a defensive hole and he's been hurt a lot (55 and 84 games the last 2 full seasons).

I'm not trying to just beat up your answers, but if we demand sluggers now, we should have some perspective on who those guys are, Cost of Availability and some perspective of how it improves the team.

Those were your first 3...I walk across all other 29 teams and I honestly can't find guys I really want. There's been plenty of guys I wanted and I've discussed them all of the time. Most of them actually get traded in packages we could have been involved in. Now the landscape is pretty bare and everyone is hard to get someone. Kind of convenient for a team most interested in doing nothing.

You don't have to discuss Ohtani and Trout. I'm well aware neither is an option, even though they should be from a fit perspective. Then again, they fit on almost every team.

Bryant is interesting to me because he might be available cheaply if you take that contract with him, or you might be able to coax Colorado into eating some of his contract by giving them better pieces. The bat still plays and you can DH him most of the time.

Jimenez also is a guy I'd look at DHing, and again, he's 25 and the bat will play. I'd at least see if they're listening.

Nate Lowe is about to hit arbitration and the Rangers are not very good. I'd inquire there as well.

The thing is, you're asking me who I want, but outside of a few very obvious candidates, we can't answer those questions. People get dealt that nobody expected to be available every year, and I'm sure this offseason will be no exception. I want to add a guy who can maintain a ~.800-.850 OPS and is good for ~25-30 homers a year. I'm sure that guy is out there somewhere.

#15 weird-O

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 08:05 AM

I agree.  I think they should treat Means as a bonus.  Work the off season like he is not going to be available.  If he comes back strong in July, it is like adding a quality starter without having to give up prospects.

Both projections for his return are disheartening. But I agree with you here. Just don't count on him at all, and be happy if he comes back and helps. 


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#16 Mackus

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 08:34 AM

I'm a fan of Turner, but he's not getting 35+M for 8+ years from me.  If he wants to come to Baltimore, we'll figure something out.  I have no idea why he would.  Maybe he'll surprise us.  I have zero reasons to believe he wants to be in Baltimore.

 

If you made me pick between Mountcastle, Santander and Abreu for 1B/DH in Baltimore I'd leave Abreu off.  And that's before cost.  He'll be 36, would take 3 or 4 years to talk him away from Chicago.  Another RHed bat that would have no interest in Baltimore.  Why didn't we include Mountcastle++ for Olson?  We could afford the extension, LHed bat, excellent defense....I made that argument.

 

I'm OK with Verlander, but I'd rather go get Woodruff and Manaea for half the total cost and probably be better for it.  I doubt we do that, but that's probably the best you could reasonably do.  I argued for Verlander back in 2017 (remember that Steve?).....now we want to chase a career year into his 40s with 40M per?  He can talk me into signing him, but he's going to need to want to be here.  Don't see it at this point.

 

I'm ok with any of several dozen combinations, so I don't really have much of a preference for what the team does to improve as long as it improves significantly.

 

I have preferences and thoughts on what I think would be the most optimal use of the resources (and strong thoughts about how much financial resources should be available), but optimization is not important.  Do something big, that can be some splashy FA signings, some trades, some smart lower key acquisitions...whatever.  It matters, but its not like there is one uniquely good path forward.  There are a ton of ways they can do things to help in a big way.  Pick your favorite and go forth.

 

My current favorite is Turner, Verlander, and Abreu.  Chris likes Swanson and Rodon.  Others like other combos and different names.  They're all good routes.  The only stupid thing to do would be to do very little.  I'm fearful that will be the choice, but when talking about what should be done, that doesn't need to really be considered at all.  No need to limit ideas to what they will do, just limit things to what they can do.  



#17 DuffMan

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 08:37 AM

Nathan Ruiz says the biggest offseason need is backup catcher, is that meant to be a joke?  I get the argument that they need to upgrade from Chirinos but if their biggest acquisition this offseason is the backup catcher than I will be disappointed and upset at a failed opportunity to improve the team.

 

On a related note, the writers mentioned the importance of locking up Rutschman and I hope Elias does too.  I've mentioned this several times already, but I'll mention it again.  He's a star and already a face of the franchise the sooner we can buy out his arbitration years and first couple years that he would be a FA the better.  I'm not sure how serious effort the prior regime made to get a deal done with Machado early on, but I would hate to see the same scenario play out with Adley



#18 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 08:52 AM

IF the O's don't really improve the team this offseason with some serious upgrades (SP and bat) then I have zero interest in extending Adley. What's the point unless you think that the O's have enough talent coming up that they can be a legit playoff contender strictly with in house pieces?

 

Now if the FO believes that the available market isn't there this winter and is targeting next winter I might see this differently. 



#19 Mackus

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 09:48 AM

IF the O's don't really improve the team this offseason with some serious upgrades (SP and bat) then I have zero interest in extending Adley. What's the point unless you think that the O's have enough talent coming up that they can be a legit playoff contender strictly with in house pieces?

 

Now if the FO believes that the available market isn't there this winter and is targeting next winter I might see this differently. 

 

What does one have to do with the other?

 

I desperately want to sign/trade for some serious talent to add to this year's team.  I also want to extend Rutschman.  Hopefully they do the first thing, but if they don't, why would that make you want the second thing any less?  That doesn't make sense.



#20 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 09:56 AM

They arent comitting big long term money to anyone IMO. Can still find guys on shorter deals and make a trade or two for arb eligible guys






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