173 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You know you are looking at it from only the Os perspective. Elias didnt believe in his team. Improbable being brought up all the time. You know his "model" likely sold the Os short in Aug and maybe will again in Sept but maybe it wont matter if the model is right about it needing say 90 or 91 wins to get the last WC and we only end up with 87 or 88

[You Play to Win the Game]

Elias should take his model and shove it up his * and have a pulse. Not much of an ask. This is awesome, it’d be more so if it were more intentional from the guy in charge.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Dont take this as me being preachy but knock it off and enjoy the ride. I dont think youre enjoying this like you should because of feeling like you were wronged a month ago. Get over it. I feel it. You want to be mad about something all the time

[You Play to Win the Game]

There’s no one enjoying it more than me. But just because it’s going well, doesn’t mean you get to revise history. I’m not there for it. Don’t confuse that as me not enjoying this. That’s really the whole point. Your boy didn’t think we deserved this yet. Not this year. Too improbable. I’ll never forget that, and my perspective on it all will never change. I can walk and chew gum at the same time.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Im sure you are enjoying it but you could enjoy it more if there was less angst. IMO of course.

[CantonJester]

Im sure you are enjoying it but you could enjoy it more if there was less angst. IMO of course.

 

Oh bleep that nonsense. Elias traded the freakin closer who made the All Star game for lottery tickets. 

 

He deserves the fans' ire. 

[85Knight]

The bottom line is we were a .500 team on Aug 1 and despite having a terrific month we are still 1.5 back of the last WC spot. I believe we were 2.5 back on Aug 1. So you see why yes it was an improbability. We payed. .650 or so ball for the month and gained 1 game. How bout if we had only played .550 ball for the month. Which still would have been good.

Your logic is flawed. The fact that we're only 1.5 out a month later means Elias was wrong. We were and are in striking distance and that's all that matters. We even took the 3rd spot for a few games. The fact that we play the team we are chasing 10 more times makes it even more of a race. If we had fallen 10 games back in the last month Elias would have been right. But he wasn't.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Oh bleep that nonsense. Elias traded the freakin closer who made the All Star game for lottery tickets. 

 

He deserves the fans' ire. 

Calling Povich a lottery ticket is nonsense

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Your logic is flawed. The fact that we're only 1.5 out a month later means Elias was wrong. We were and are in striking distance and that's all that matters. We even took the 3rd spot for a few games. The fact that we play the team we are chasing 10 more times makes it even more of a race. If we had fallen 10 games back in the last month Elias would have been right. But he wasn't.

What IM saying, as I said to Ricker in a following post, is Elias is not just taking \ the Os last two months into account. Obviously he, the "model", whatever may end up wrong. He said that at the time. If it takes 92 wins to get the last WC spot it might not matter. Maybe thats what the model spit out for the last WC spot. To put it another way as good as the vibes were on say July  29th if I had asked people here if they thought it was likely we get to 90 wins the answer overwhelming would have been no.

 

 

 

People are hung up on this thing about him giving up on the team. Improbable being used.  You can think the team was good on Aug 1 and not think it was good enough to make the playoffs. People here as recently as last weekend were fretting about the road trip, the pen wearing down, the offensive lulls. I said we are good, we are not going away and we will be in the fight til the end. I believed that and I still believe it. I still think its more likely we miss than make the playoffs. We are a good team. Im not sure we are good enough

[85Knight]

What IM saying, as I said to Ricker in a following post, is Elias is not just taking \ the Os last two months into account. Obviously he, the "model", whatever may end up wrong. He said that at the time. If it takes 92 wins to get the last WC spot it might not matter. Maybe thats what the model spit out for the last WC spot. To put it another way as good as the vibes were on say July 29th if I had asked people here if they thought it was likely we get to 90 wins the answer overwhelming would have been no.



People are hung up on this thing about him giving up on the team. Improbable being used. You can think the team was good on Aug 1 and not think it was good enough to make the playoffs. People here as recently as last weekend were fretting about the road trip, the pen wearing down, the offensive lulls. I said we are good, we are not going away and we will be in the fight til the end. I believed that and I still believe it. I still think its more likely we miss than make the playoffs. We are a good team. Im not sure we are good enough

spit.

He basically admitted he was wrong when he came back a couple of weeks later and said he thought the team would make the playoffs. You're making excuses that he isn't even making for himself.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

link

 

 

Its not a complicated process here You can think we are good but not good enough. All of you thought that whether you admit it or not. No one here would have had us winning 90 games on Aug 1. Now, maybe you thought we could make the playoffs but more at say 85 or 86 wins

[85Knight]

link


Its not a complicated process here You can think we are good but not good enough. All of you thought that whether you admit it or not. No one here would have had us winning 90 games on Aug 1. Now, maybe you thought we could make the playoffs but more at say 85 or 86 wins

That's not true at all and I said as much right on this board. We have been playing 90 win baseball pretty much since mid May. Elias was looking at the team based on what they were expected to do more than what they were actually doing. If you look at ESPN's playoff probability percentages they are heavily weighted on preseason projections. We are 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays yet their probability sits at 90% and the O's are at 10%. That's exactly what Elias was looking at a month ago and that was just flawed thinking.

The fact that he had such little confidence in his coaches and players was disturbing. Games are won and lost on the field. Not on a spreadsheet or because of a probability rating.

[Mike in STL]

As I said its not only defensible its the correct move. We will see what they do going forward. Maybe McKenna takes ABs away from Aguilar or Mountcastle or Hays which would be ok too. Ced bviously still brings defensive value but to be clear platooning a .555 OPS guy should never really be scrutinized this hard. \

Small sample size. He OPSed .788 against LHP last year. You don’t think a player like him is due to bounce back? But he won’t get the chance to if they don’t play him against LHPs.

If they pull out a WC spot, the opposition just has to start two or three lefties and Mullins never sees the field. This is what Hyde is telling the league right now.

[makoman]

Mullins has played 127 of 131 games. He has 551 PAs.

[Mike in STL]

Mullins has played 127 of 131 games. He has 551 PAs.

Well , that’s good. But McKenna shouldn’t be getting ABs in the leadoff spot just cause it’s a lefty on the bump. He OPSed .468 against them last year in 89 PAs. In his 50 this year being at .910…that doesn’t seem sustainable.

[makoman]

Well , that’s good. But McKenna shouldn’t be getting ABs in the leadoff spot just cause it’s a lefty on the bump. He OPSed .468 against them last year in 89 PAs. In his 50 this year being at .910…that doesn’t seem sustainable.

Yeah I agree that McKenna doesn’t need to be leading off. With last night’s players I’d maybe have Gunnar leading off, but they probably want to ease him in and not do that in game 3.

[Slidemaster]

I remember just a little while ago when people were saying Mullins was a better player than Adam Jones. I thought that might be premature.

Regardless however, Mullins doesn't need to sit for McKenna, ever.

[makoman]

I remember just a little while ago when people were saying Mullins was a better player than Adam Jones. I thought that might be premature.

Regardless however, Mullins doesn't need to sit for McKenna, ever.

I’m confident that he’s a better defender. Bat is TBD, but even if this year is who he is he’s above average, 106 OPS+, the same as Adam’s career number. Sure Adam’s prime was better as that includes decline years, but the bat isn’t too far off.

I said above Mullins played in 127 of 131 games. He’s started 118. So a day off from starting every 1-2 weeks. Seems pretty normal for a starter. Definitely not platooning. There’s 31 games left, he probably starts like 27 or 28.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

That's not true at all and I said as much right on this board. We have been playing 90 win baseball pretty much since mid May. Elias was looking at the team based on what they were expected to do more than what they were actually doing. If you look at ESPN's playoff probability percentages they are heavily weighted on preseason projections. We are 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays yet their probability sits at 90% and the O's are at 10%. That's exactly what Elias was looking at a month ago and that was just flawed thinking.

The fact that he had such little confidence in his coaches and players was disturbing. Games are won and lost on the field. Not on a spreadsheet or because of a probability rating.

I mean good for you for thinking we were going to get to 90 on Aug 1 as a .500 team. Have played 9 over since. Still have 9 over to go. Wont be easy but its more realistic now.

[You Play to Win the Game]

A lot of people believed it. They had been playing at a great clip for a couple months at that point. This is what being a fan is all about.