115 replies to this topic

[NewMarketSean]

Deal from your strength in the off-season, not in a playoff race, IMO.

Also seems like a pretty lofty profile for Povich. If he's a potential top of the rotation guy than so is Rom and a couple others. Still dislike the trade.

I can see your point.

but I defer to Elias re: Povich. They must have seen something they liked.

and SP in the minors is a position of need.

[CantonJester]

I mean, it's all about mixing up a BP of arm slots, release points and different pitch types. The Rays have been doing that for the past 15+ years. 

[russsnyder]

Bautista is lights out.

[russsnyder]

Deal from your strength in the off-season, not in a playoff race, IMO.

Also seems like a pretty lofty profile for Povich. If he's a potential top of the rotation guy than so is Rom and a couple others. Still dislike the trade.

I disagree.

They wouldn't have gotten as much in return for Lopez in the offseason. The Twins were desperate for bullpen help and they probably overpaid for Lopez. Further, Bautista has stepped into the closer's role and the team hasn't missed a beat. That's dealing from your strength.

[Mackus]

I disagree as thoroughly as I can that Povich was overpaying. I'm glad we have Povich, he's a decent prospect, but I'd easily rather have Lopez for this run than him. And if Lopez got hurt and turns into someone we can't trade, that's fine. Two more wins this season is worth all of Povich's upside potential to me. Maybe Lopez doesn't make a different down the stretch, maybe he does.  Sometimes you play for now.

If I legit thought Povich was a top-8 guy in our org and top 100ish overall I'd feel different. Still not a move I'd make but would see the rationale, kind of like the Mancini trade. But he isn't and I don't.

Hasn't missed a beat is different than won't miss a beat. Every time Baker or Vespi or Akin or anyone else is pitching in a key spot instead of Tate or Perez or Bautista is a time the trade hurts this year.

[russsnyder]

I disagree as thoroughly as I can that Povich was overpaying. I'm glad we have Povich, he's a decent prospect, but I'd easily rather have Lopez for this run than him. And if Lopez got hurt and turns into someone we can't trade, that's fine. Two more wins this season is worth all of Povich's upside potential to me. Sometimes you play for now.

If I legit thought Povich was a top-8 guy in our org and top 100ish overall I'd feel different. Still not a move I'd make but would see the rationale, kind of like the Mancini trade. But he isn't and I don't.

Hasn't missed a beat is different than won't miss a beat. Every time Baker or Vespi or Akin or anyone else is pitching in a key spot instead of Tate or Perez or Bautista is a time the trade hurts this year.

We'll see if Povich was an overpay. I think it will be if the Twins don't make the playoffs and Povich is at least a serviceable major league pitcher.

In discussing the trades, Elias eluded to the fact that the Orioles have stayed away from drafting pitchers in higher rounds because of injury concerns. They did a nice job of adding some depth and getting a couple of potential high reward guys in Johnson and Povich.

Well, they haven't missed a beat Mr. Glass Half Empty. Hey, there's no guarantee that they wouldn't have missed a beat if they held onto Lopez either. They were going to use those guys whether Lopez was here or not. The fact that they are being used more in higher leverage situations confirms that the pen is a position of strength, or at least that the front office believes that it is.

[Mackus]

I don't see what the Twins making the playoffs or not has to do with the return for Lopez. If the O's miss the playoffs, I think that means something regarding the evaluation, especially if part of the reason is that the bullpen couldn't keep up.

I don't see how wanting to make this team the best it can be to try to make the playoffs is glass half empty. Did anyone wanna release Lopez? If not then surely his departure makes this team at least a little bit worse off. I think the future benefit we got in return is woefully short of being worth that cost.

[You Play to Win the Game]

The only reason they’re 10-4 since the trades is because of the trades. If there’s one sure fire way for a good team to improve, it’s to trade a cost controlled all-star arm out of your bullpen. This team would not be anywhere near 61 wins right now if it weren’t for Povich.

[NewMarketSean]

I’m just saying. I didn’t like the Lopez trade at the time but I think it’s looking a little better since we haven’t missed a beat and got a P in return whose early returns are good. It’s something to pay attention to going forward.

But Elias was not wrong in thinking that Felix could step into the role and flourish.

[makoman]

We will probably rehash this trade for some time. Some of these posts should probably be moved to the thread about the trade instead of a random game thread. All of the following are true for me.

 

-I'm almost always willing to trade relievers when their value is high, unless I think they're special. I'm not trading Britton ~2014 with his crazy ground ball ability. I'm not trading Bautista today with his stuff that looks top of the league. Lopez wasn't quite there.

-But I'm concerned about the bullpen and how it holds up the rest of the year cause they have been working hard pretty much all year. They have still been good but seems like 2+ of Tate/Perez/Bautista pitch every day.

-Hall and perhaps Grayson could help with that and that very well might have been the plan all along.

-I'm not knowledgeable enough to declare what Povich was worth to those in the industry.

-Related: I think there may be high error bars in public rankings and am open to the idea that there was a jump made somewhere that was not yet reflected. We'll see.

-I have no clue how to value the other three in the deal either, but it seems like at least one has some value and one has almost no value.

-A GM always has to balance winning today and winning tomorrow. A GM should take into account probabilities of winning today, but shouldn't say that publicly, that was a big unforced error that hurt a lot of fan reaction.

-My personal expectations for this year remain low primarily due to SP. They keep proving me wrong.

-How the Twins do shouldn't affect how any Orioles fan views the trade.

-Lopez has been just ok since the trade. If he blows up that doesn't change the trade much because that possibility is part of point 1 and why you would be willing to trade him in the first place.

-If the O's bullpen blows up and the team falls short of the WC because of that, the trade looks far, far worse, even if Povich turns into something good. If the bullpen holds up it was still a risk that probably wasn't necessary.

 

 

The sum of these makes the trade neutral to mildly acceptable to me. I can understand people hating it, mostly due to the point of bullpen concern, how one values the return, and how much one believes in the chances of this year. It was high risk (due to messing with this year) and only moderate reward (because of the low likelihood of helping the future; even if Povich is good, he's still relatively far away).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We will probably rehash this trade for some time. Some of these posts should probably be moved to the thread about the trade instead of a random game thread. All of the following are true for me.

-I'm almost always willing to trade relievers when their value is high, unless I think they're special. I'm not trading Britton ~2014 with his crazy ground ball ability. I'm not trading Bautista today with his stuff that looks top of the league. Lopez wasn't quite there.
-But I'm concerned about the bullpen and how it holds up the rest of the year cause they have been working hard pretty much all year. They have still been good but seems like 2+ of Tate/Perez/Bautista pitch every day.
-Hall and perhaps Grayson could help with that and that very well might have been the plan all along.
-I'm not knowledgeable enough to declare what Povich was worth to those in the industry.
-Related: I think there may be high error bars in public rankings and am open to the idea that there was a jump made somewhere that was not yet reflected. We'll see.
-I have no clue how to value the other three in the deal either, but it seems like at least one has some value and one has almost no value.
-A GM always has to balance winning today and winning tomorrow. A GM should take into account probabilities of winning today, but shouldn't say that publicly, that was a big unforced error that hurt a lot of fan reaction.
-My personal expectations for this year remain low primarily due to SP. They keep proving me wrong.
-How the Twins do shouldn't affect how any Orioles fan views the trade.
-Lopez has been just ok since the trade. If he blows up that doesn't change the trade much because that possibility is part of point 1 and why you would be willing to trade him in the first place.
-If the O's bullpen blows up and the team falls short of the WC because of that, the trade looks far, far worse, even if Povich turns into something good. If the bullpen holds up it was still a risk that probably wasn't necessary.


The sum of these makes the trade neutral to mildly acceptable to me. I can understand people hating it, mostly due to the point of bullpen concern, how one values the return, and how much one believes in the chances of this year. It was high risk (due to messing with this year) and only moderate reward (because of the low likelihood of helping the future; even if Povich is good, he's still relatively far away).

Pitching could fall apart but it seems Wells will make it back. Im thinking either he or Bradish move to the pen as a reinforcement. If it is Wells we know he has high leverage experience from last year. Thats in addition to Hall coming back up. You cant get around how well Lopez pitched for us this year and expect to replace that production. Of course there was no promises he was going to continue that kind of production. I think they feel they have some arms either in the rotation now, on the IL, or in AAA that profile similar to Lopez.

[You Play to Win the Game]

-A GM always has to balance winning today and winning tomorrow. A GM should take into account probabilities of winning today, but shouldn't say that publicly, that was a big unforced error that hurt a lot of fan reaction.

 

This is the source of my anger. There is zero balance. None. And it's been 4 seasons. What is the worst case scenario for the organization long-term, by keeping this team in tact, and not acquiring the guys they got back? What is the harm in trying to win this year too? That's what balance would look like. Instead, he makes these deals, Stowers is still raking in Norfolk, they bring up Hall who clearly wasn't ready for a start to lose against a playoff team, they have Brett Phillips on the roster, and it looks like by and large, they don't want to "disrupt the chemistry" by making sure Odor stays in there (as if trading Mancini and Lopez wasn't disruptive - even if they've rallied?). 

 

Anyway, y'all know where I stand. It is what it is at this point. But a reminder of how great those trades were every time we win is getting old quick. 

 

To some of you, post hoc ergo proctor hoc. Whatever floats your boat.

 

BTW, Mako, very nice post - balanced and fair all around. 

[85Knight]

I disagree as thoroughly as I can that Povich was overpaying. I'm glad we have Povich, he's a decent prospect, but I'd easily rather have Lopez for this run than him. And if Lopez got hurt and turns into someone we can't trade, that's fine. Two more wins this season is worth all of Povich's upside potential to me. Maybe Lopez doesn't make a different down the stretch, maybe he does. Sometimes you play for now.

If I legit thought Povich was a top-8 guy in our org and top 100ish overall I'd feel different. Still not a move I'd make but would see the rationale, kind of like the Mancini trade. But he isn't and I don't.

Hasn't missed a beat is different than won't miss a beat. Every time Baker or Vespi or Akin or anyone else is pitching in a key spot instead of Tate or Perez or Bautista is a time the trade hurts this year.

Elias didn't make this deal because he thought we were dealing from a position of strength. He did it because he thought we had no shot at making the playoffs. He's already said "sometimes we get it wrong" and I wouldn't be surprised to hear him admit it at some point. He's always been very candid and i'm sure he's second guessing himself with each Orioles win.

[Mike B]

I disagree as thoroughly as I can that Povich was overpaying. I'm glad we have Povich, he's a decent prospect, but I'd easily rather have Lopez for this run than him. And if Lopez got hurt and turns into someone we can't trade, that's fine. Two more wins this season is worth all of Povich's upside potential to me. Maybe Lopez doesn't make a different down the stretch, maybe he does.  Sometimes you play for now.

If I legit thought Povich was a top-8 guy in our org and top 100ish overall I'd feel different. Still not a move I'd make but would see the rationale, kind of like the Mancini trade. But he isn't and I don't.

Hasn't missed a beat is different than won't miss a beat. Every time Baker or Vespi or Akin or anyone else is pitching in a key spot instead of Tate or Perez or Bautista is a time the trade hurts this year.

I have tried to move past the trades, because this season has been too much fun and I do not want to take away from it, worrying about the trades. That said, the pen does feel a man short without Lopez.  Bautista has taken over for Jorge in the 9th inning but that leaves the 6th, 7th and 8th to Perez and Tate.  Instead of having 4 high leverage guys covering 4 innings, we have just 3.  

As for Povich being a TOR guy, time will tell, but that phrase originated with Elias trying to explain the deal.  It seems a little over the top to me.

[Mike B]

Moving away from complaining about the deadline deals, does anyone else see a demeanor change from Hyde.

 

For the past 3 years, Hyde has been a damage control/cheerleader type on the bench.  He has been a manager whose job was not so much winning, but getting the team to survive loss after loss.  

Now he seems to have realized that this years overachievers have a chance to do the impossible.He seems more intense, more engaged and even tight at times.  They kept showing him in the 8th and 9th last night and the guy was hanging on every pitch.  Hopefully he is enjoying it, because what his team is doing is defying all odds. 

[glenn__davis]

Anyway, y'all know where I stand. It is what it is at this point. But a reminder of how great those trades were every time we win is getting old quick. 

 

To some of you, post hoc ergo proctor hoc. Whatever floats your boat.

 

BTW, Mako, very nice post - balanced and fair all around. 

 

To be fair, you know the 1st time the bullpen blows a save we're going to get the "If only we had an elite closer!" posts.

 

That said, agree, I think Mako's post summed things up very nicely.  

[85Knight]

We're making this more complicated than it really is. No GM is gonna trade their closer in the middle of a playoff race. Hell, he wouldn't have traded Mancini or Lopez if he thought we were gonna be fighting for a playoff spot. He didn't believe in this team and it looks like he got it wrong. I think it's that simple.

[You Play to Win the Game]

To be fair, you know the 1st time the bullpen blows a save we're going to get the "If only we had an elite closer!" posts.

That said, agree, I think Mako's post summed things up very nicely.

Um, they already have blown some games (not saves though, which is irrelevant), a couple times since the deadline. And no, I wasn’t pounding my chest about it. I didn’t say a word. I’ve also pointed out the blown saves Lopez has committed in Minnesota so far.

I’m not happy with how Elias viewed this team. I think it’s truly absurd. But that said, I didn’t even want to buy, I just didn’t want to sell. I haven’t asked for Grayson or Henderson to be here, I want the service time. I’m not being totally unreasonable or inconsistent or rubbing anything in anyones face. I’m just passionately on the side I’m on. I need to cool it and not be an ass though. I’ll own that.

[85Knight]

Um, they already have blown some games (not saves though, which is irrelevant), a couple times since the deadline. And no, I wasn’t pounding my chest about it. I didn’t say a word.

Some people are saying Bautista is doing fine so everything is ok but it's far more complicated than that. We all knew Bautista could close. He did so when Lopez was here.

No matter how we do weakening your bullpen in the middle of a playoff run for some minor league prospects is never a good idea. Teams in contention are buyers, not sellers. I bet the fans in Seattle aren't complaining.

[glenn__davis]

Um, they already have blown some games (not saves though, which is irrelevant), a couple times since the deadline. And no, I wasn’t pounding my chest about it. I didn’t say a word.

 

They've lost 4 games since the deadline.  The only one I'd even slightly attribute to the bullpen in any way was the Boston game, and that game was tied.  It's not like the pen blew a lead there, and the Orioles scored 3 runs in the game.  The pen has been very good without Lopez...so far.