73 replies to this topic

[hallas]

He's been pretty electric so far. 2 GS, 12 innings, 15 Ks to 2 BBs, no runs allowed.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He's been pretty electric so far. 2 GS, 12 innings, 15 Ks to 2 BBs, no runs allowed.

Bowie is calling

[BobPhelan]

Promoted to AA Bowie.

[Mackus]

Excited to see what he can do at Bowie.  Hard to do any better than he did in his two A+ starts here.

[hallas]

There is no shot this guy ends up in the 20s on the prospect rankings once the offseason hits and analysts start re-evaluating. So far he looks like he should be ranked in the low-teens for the Os, and you could make the argument that he could go higher.

His Bowie debut was pretty successful. 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K 2 BB.

[Mackus]

Teens in our system is about where everyone here discussed him as being.  It's a pick-em between he and Rom, IMO.  If Povich's velocity increase is true and sustainable, he edges ahead.  A big final two months can of course change a lot, so if he pitches really well while here (especially after moving up to Bowie) then that moves him up in a way that he wouldn't have been regarded at the time of the trade.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Teens in our system is about where everyone here discussed him as being.  It's a pick-em between he and Rom, IMO.  If Povich's velocity increase is true and sustainable, he edges ahead.  A big final two months can of course change a lot, so if he pitches really well while here (especially after moving up to Bowie) then that moves him up in a way that he wouldn't have been regarded at the time of the trade.  

Wouldn't have been regarded  from our perspective as outsiders. Its pretty clear he had helium at the time of the trade

[Mackus]

Wouldn't have been regarded  from our perspective as outsiders. Its pretty clear he had helium at the time of the trade

 

-Ok I'll buy that.  But I won't ever agree that he was enough to be the bulk of the return for Lopez considering the importance of the final months of this season and the two more years of control.  He'd need to be ahead of Stowers and Westburg for that and he just isn't.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

-Ok I'll buy that.  But I won't ever agree that he was enough to be the bulk of the return for Lopez considering the importance of the final months of this season and the two more years of control.  He'd need to be ahead of Stowers and Westburg for that and he just isn't.

 I dont know that I disagree unless there is helium in one of the other guys we got back. I did prefer to keep the  high leverage guys in our BP intact.

[Mike B]

I am not trying to rehash the trades again, we have beat them to death, but I think Elias even tried to sell the return he got for Jorge to the fan base.  He referred to Povich as a potential TOR guy..  I guess you can label a lot of prospects that way, but it does not feel like anyone else feels that way.

[hallas]

I am not trying to rehash the trades again, we have beat them to death, but I think Elias even tried to sell the return he got for Jorge to the fan base.  He referred to Povich as a potential TOR guy..  I guess you can label a lot of prospects that way, but it does not feel like anyone else feels that way.

 

I think you have to read between the lines a bit when listening to the smoke that Elias was blowing.  The impression I got from Elias was that he figured Povich as someone who had a good chance of being a #2/3 starter on a playoff team, with an outside shot at being the best starter on said team.  That certainly didn't jive with the prospect reports at the time, which largely didn't account for his increased velocity or his 12 K/9 and 4:1 K/BB ratio.

 

 

-Ok I'll buy that.  But I won't ever agree that he was enough to be the bulk of the return for Lopez considering the importance of the final months of this season and the two more years of control.  He'd need to be ahead of Stowers and Westburg for that and he just isn't.

I'm with you here - I'm still mildly against this trade.  But Stowers is currently ranked 9 on MLB's prospect list and there's an outside shot that with a good showing in Bowie he could end up in that ballpark.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Orioles.com: This O's prospect is putting on a show at camp

https://www.mlb.com/...les-spring-camp

[Mackus]

Sounds like the ball comes out of his hand real well!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

This article makes you re-evaluate the trade yes

[BaltBird 24]

Still can't believe people were/are mad that we got this kid for Jorge Lopez.

[Mackus]

This article makes you re-evaluate the trade yes

No. This is a Spring puff piece. Probably a similar article about Mike Baumann a year or two ago.

His prospect status increasing helps any revaluation of the trade, but I'm still not convinced it's all that legit. Wanna see him at AA.

[Mackus]

Still can't believe people were/are mad that we got this kid for Jorge Lopez.

Mad that we only got this kid for 2+ years of an All-Star closer.

He's a decent prospect, but he's not even top-10 in most good orgs. One evaluator has him really high, the rest, including the BSL people, all have him in the low teens for us. Happy to have him, but not at the cost.

That's simply not enough to justify dealing Lopez. We did get one other borderline interesting young guy so it wasn't only Povich, but not enough to move the needle. The other two guys were freely available types, so no value added.

[makoman]

Mad that we only got this kid for 2+ years of an All-Star closer.

He's a decent prospect, but he's not even top-10 in most good orgs. One evaluator has him really high, the rest, including the BSL people, all have him in the low teens for us. Happy to have him, but not at the cost.

That's simply not enough to justify dealing Lopez. We did get one other borderline interesting young guy so it wasn't only Povich. The other two guys were freely available types, so no value added.

Lone representative on a team that didn't really have anyone else deserving at the time. I don't think he's George Sherrill but he's not prime Britton either.

 

Doesn't really matter what he did those three months, what matters is what he'll be the next two years. Was he just pitching out of his mind or did something really change? I have to assume if they thought it was the latter they'd have kept him. Cole Sulser actually had a fairly similar 2021 as Lopez's first half, except ERA which can be a lucky thing. Basically the same K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, Lopez had a great H/9 that he's never touched before or since. One thing Lopez really brought was the ability to go multiple innings. I'm not really trying to dismiss him, but relievers are tough...

 

Anyway, the timing of the deal is suspect, I don't think the return is.

[BaltBird 24]

Mad that we only got this kid for 2+ years of an All-Star closer.

He's a decent prospect, but he's not even top-10 in most good orgs. One evaluator has him really high, the rest, including the BSL people, all have him in the low teens for us. Happy to have him, but not at the cost.

That's simply not enough to justify dealing Lopez. We did get one other borderline interesting young guy so it wasn't only Povich, but not enough to move the needle. The other two guys were freely available types, so no value added.

I guess that depends if you feel Lopez is who he was from April-June of 2022 or the guy he's been the rest of his career.

I think we got a good deal for what Lopez will be going forward.

[Mackus]

I guess that depends if you feel Lopez is who he was from April-June of 2022 or the guy he's been the rest of his career.

I think we got a good deal for what Lopez will be going forward.

We got much less than I thought he was worth at the deadline.

Wasn't opposed to shopping Lopez, but Elias took way less than I'd have considered. I'd have wanted a guy who would've been in the Westburg/Stowers range, and Povich is more in the Rom/Vavra range of quality.