73 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

We got much less than I thought he was worth at the deadline.

Wasn't opposed to shopping Lopez, but Elias took way less than I'd have considered. I'd have wanted a guy who would've been in the Westburg/Stowers range, and Povich is more in the Rom/Vavra range of quality.

Is much more in the Rom / Vavra range of quality or perception?  Seems to me the quality level is tbd.   Might agree with you about his perceived value. 

[Mackus]

Is much more in the Rom / Vavra range of quality or perception? Seems to me the quality level is tbd. Might agree with you about his perceived value.

I don't really see what the distinction is when talking prospects.

BSL put him 14th, right ahead of Rom, if I'm remembering the list right.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I feel part of the reason we see variance among rankings is that some lean towards ceiling in their evaluations, and some lean towards performance to-date.  (Of course other factors, age, league, etc.)

Just sticking to what you've said here, I have no idea (since I haven't seen him directly) if I'd consider him more on-par with Westburg and Stowers or Rom and Vavra in-terms of actual ability. 

I can agree, that a Rom / Vavra level prospect seems to be what his perceived value was based looking at the cumulative 3rd party rankings across the board. But we have seen an outlier, which is more in-line with Westburg and Stowers.   Maybe the outlier is wrong, and the consensus is right.  Maybe he has more ceiling than has generally been recognized.   

If he performs this year, and his perception goes up... that points to the idea his quality was under recognized by the consensus. 

 

 

For me.... I wouldn't have Henderson in my rankings, as I feel he graduated. 
I'd also have him above Johnson, and maybe Fabian.  So, I'd have him 11th or 12th... and with the assumption that Grayson makes the ML rotation, and Hall either joins the ML team out of camp, or shortly thereafter...   for me, he's basically the best pitching prospect currently in the system. 

It will be interesting to see what he does this year, and if the O's scouts were right about their evaluation. 

[BobPhelan]

I feel part of the reason we see variance among rankings is that some lean towards ceiling in their evaluations, and some lean towards performance to-date. (Of course other factors, age, league, etc.)

Yeah it’s a tough balance. For me, I try to take into account all of these things and am constantly trying to get better at it. Feel like I’ve started to learn to keep international signings and high school picks on the low side with the thought I can quickly move them up when I can combine their stats with being able to watch them, read reports on them, etc. Especially on the international side it is so new for us as Orioles fans.

But this is why I think we’re conservative when it comes to trade acquisitions too, we want to get a chance to evaluate them in our own way and react accordingly rather than taking what we read on them as complete gospel.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

No. This is a Spring puff piece. Probably a similar article about Mike Baumann a year or two ago.

His prospect status increasing helps any revaluation of the trade, but I'm still not convinced it's all that legit. Wanna see him at AA.

Was joking. Specifically about this puff piece.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

But comparing him to Rom is pretty far off. Rom is Olson or Zimmerman. Soft tossing lefty who had success in lower levels but no real MLB upside. I mean maybe Akin 2022 is his upside if I squint. Povich has legit mid rotation upside. Throws harder. Better secondaries. The stuff should play in the Show.

[Mackus]

Seems like everybody compares him pretty similarly to Rom. Most have Povich slightly ahead, but they're usually pretty tightly packed. Only the one guy who had Povich in the fifties seems to think they're particularly different.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Roms numbers through AA deserve respect but Povich has the big league arm and stuff

[BobPhelan]

Povich looked good today. Sat 93-94 and really mixed his pitches. 3 Ks (all swinging) in two scoreless innings.

[Mike B]

Povich looked good today. Sat 93-94 and really mixed his pitches. 3 Ks (all swinging) in two scoreless innings.

Hitting 94 in his first time out is impressive.

[makoman]

This was fun. Field your position

 

https://twitter.com/...508793249382401

 

5.0 inn, 0 R, 10 K, 1H, 2 BB yesterday. 

 

Good start to the year, 3.71 ERA, 1.55 FIP, 14.3 K/9, but 4.7 BB/9 needs to go down. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The walks are def the issue. Fix that and we will see how much helium he really has as a prospect

[glenn__davis]

5/11

 

Great start from Povich.  5IP, 3H, 1BB, 10K, 0R.

 

Another 2 or 3 like that and he'll be moving on up.

[Mackus]

Seems like consistency is the last thing he's gotta master.  Or probably more accurately, how to still be ok when he's not got his good stuff.  To still be able to limp through 5 innings and 3 runs when he's off.  

 

I'd be very interested to see which SP they go to when they need one for more than a spot start between Irvin, Hall, Rom, and Povich.  My guess is that order is the current preference, but could change rapidly.  All four are lefties, too, which is fun.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Irvin or Rom. Povich isnt even on the 40 man and is the furthest away. Can safely elimimate him.


Has Hall even started a game in the bigs. Im thinking he did but it was a 1 or 2 off thing. The majority of his appearances have been out of the pen. I just dont see that changing even though he is still starting games in AAA. He cant get past 5 innnings even on his best days. Too many wasted pitches.

[BobPhelan]

Irvin or Rom. Povich isnt even on the 40 man and is the furthest away. Can safely elimimate him.


Has Hall even started a game in the bigs. Im thinking he did but it was a 1 or 2 off thing. The majority of his appearances have been out of the pen. I just dont see that changing even though he is still starting games in AAA. He cant get past 5 innnings even on his best days. Too many wasted pitches.

His major league debut was a start against the Rays in Tampa and he just pitched 6 innings yesterday under 100 pitches.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

His major league debut was a start against the Rays in Tampa and he just pitched 6 innings yesterday under 100 pitches.

Yeah and whats his long term future? You know. Come on. The chances he is a 5 and diveme guy as you say are less than 30% at this point.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah and whats his long term future? You know. Come on. The chances he is a 5 and dime guy as you say are less than 30% at this point.

At least I think its that low if he stays in the Os organization. Another org may be able to give him the chance to start and remain a 5 and dime guy.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Povich may be an inconsistent headcase like Hall. Headcase prob shouldnt be used but its infuriating seeing the excellent outings being backed up by bad ones.

[BobPhelan]

Povich may be an inconsistent headcase like Hall. Headcase prob shouldnt be used but its infuriating seeing the excellent outings being backed up by bad ones.

He was great through 4 innings and had two inherited runners score in the 5th. He has been alternating good and bad starts all season. Consistency is key. Much better command than Hall, don’t think it’s the same issue.