614 replies to this topic

[mdrunning]

In the only other game of significance tonight, Tampa is thumping Toronto, 10-3. Not much of a help, though. At this point, we need Toronto to knock off the Rays.

[BobPhelan]

In the only other game of significance tonight, Tampa is thumping Toronto, 10-3. Not much of a help, though. At this point, we need Toronto to knock off the Rays.

Not necessarily, only need to be three games behind Toronto going into the final series.

[glenn__davis]

Not necessarily, only need to be three games behind Toronto going into the final series.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what the actual probabilities would say, but it still seems to me that the "easiest" path is through Toronto.  Now need to make up 2.5 games against them before that final series to still have a shot.

[Mackus]

I still think Toronto is the more gettable target, solely because of the head-to-head.  Rays have been scuffling, but it'd be really tough to need 3 wins over the last 3 games AND to have the Rays lose 3 different games.

 

Gap is effectively equal for all of them now.

 

4 GB of Seattle and Tampa but lose the tiebreak to both.

5 GB of Toronto but will win the tiebreak if they win the final series.

 

Need to make up 2.5 games over the next 10 days to have a shot.  O's have 10 games...3 v Hou, 4 @ Bos, 3 @ NY.  Toronto has 9 games...3 @ TB, 3 v NY, 3 v Bos.  That's a big ask, but not completely crazy.  The sweep remains a big ask, but each game until they lose would be appointment watching at least.

[weird-O]

I don't see how Toronto is any more of a target than TB. That last series of the season no longer holds much promise. The last 2 series against them showed us that. 

[Mackus]

I don't see how Toronto is any more of a target than TB. That last series of the season no longer holds much promise. The last 2 series against them showed us that. 

 

The whole thing is a series of long shots.

 

But I think that making up 2.5 games over 10 days and then sweeping a head-to-head is a more plausible path than making up 5 games over 13 days without any head-to-heads.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think what we really want for Tor-TB is for one of the teams to sweep the next three games.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think what we really want for Tor-TB is for one of the teams to sweep the next three games.

PreferablyTB to do the sweeping but yes one way or another we need  a losing streak from someone

[Mackus]

I think what we really want for Tor-TB is for one of the teams to sweep the next three games.

 

Agree, we need extremes in either direction.  Or in our record.  A 10-3 finish makes things more interesting, for example.

[Nigel Tufnel]

PreferablyTB to do the sweeping but yes one way or another we need  a losing streak from someone

 

Yeah, preferably a TB sweep, but a Tor sweep might be better than TB going 2-1.

[glenn__davis]

I don't see how Toronto is any more of a target than TB. That last series of the season no longer holds much promise. The last 2 series against them showed us that. 

 

As others have said the main difference is that you have some control over TOR, you have no control over TB.

 

Really wish Hyde hadn't went with the B-lineup on the final game against TB.  Win that one and we're only 2.5 GB with the tiebreaker in hand.

 

Oh well...if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

[weird-O]

As others have said the main difference is that you have some control over TOR, you have no control over TB.

 

Really wish Hyde hadn't went with the B-lineup on the final game against TB.  Win that one and we're only 2.5 GB with the tiebreaker in hand.

 

Oh well...if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

I get the reasoning. It just doesn't seem like that much of a factor, given how handily TB has beaten the O's over those last 2 series. 

[Mackus]

I get the reasoning. It just doesn't seem like that much of a factor, given how handily TB has beaten the O's over those last 2 series. 

 

I don't agree that we should put more weight on the last three series than the previous parts of the year when the O's played really well against Toronto.  Recency doesn't really outweigh something from a few months ago.  I know this is true of playoff teams, what you've done over the entire season has more correlation to your postseason success than just what you've done recently does (i.e. a 90-win team that was hot in September isn't better suited for October than a 90-win team that was steady or even cold late in the year), I'm extrapolating to assume that its true of everyone.  Of course overall trends won't matter, its just one team versus another for 3 games, so anything could happen.

 

And it wasn't all that handily, the O's still won a game each series.  Wouldn't be utterly bewildering to see the O's sweep.  Especially since the Blue Jays could be feeling the pressure and missed out on the playoffs last year as well.  Don't know how they'll respond as a team to that.

[Nigel Tufnel]

As others have said the main difference is that you have some control over TOR, you have no control over TB.

 

Really wish Hyde hadn't went with the B-lineup on the final game against TB.  Win that one and we're only 2.5 GB with the tiebreaker in hand.

 

Oh well...if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

 

Yeah, the O's had a 9-8 lead in the season series with two games to go, and somehow managed to start B lineups in both games (although Mountcastle might have missed the final game with an injury).  That was during the great Brett Phillips experiment. 

 

It was also strange to call up DL Hall to start a hugely important game, and then to not have Adley catch him just compounded the strangeness.  Oh well...

[weird-O]

I don't agree that we should put more weight on the last three series than the previous parts of the year when the O's played really well against Toronto.  Recency doesn't really outweigh something from a few months ago.  I know this is true of playoff teams, what you've done over the entire season has more correlation to your postseason success than just what you've done recently does (i.e. a 90-win team that was hot in September isn't better suited for October than a 90-win team that was steady or even cold late in the year), I'm extrapolating to assume that its true of everyone.  Of course overall trends won't matter, its just one team versus another for 3 games, so anything could happen.

 

And it wasn't all that handily, the O's still won a game each series.  Wouldn't be utterly bewildering to see the O's sweep.  Especially since the Blue Jays could be feeling the pressure and missed out on the playoffs last year as well.  Don't know how they'll respond as a team to that.

I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that results from months ago are just as telling as results from a week or so ago. So I'll just say that I could not disagree more. 

[weird-O]

Yeah, the O's had a 9-8 lead in the season series with two games to go, and somehow managed to start B lineups in both games (although Mountcastle might have missed the final game with an injury).  That was during the great Brett Phillips experiment. 

 

It was also strange to call up DL Hall to start a hugely important game, and then to not have Adley catch him just compounded the strangeness.  Oh well...

Do these moves call into question Hyde's managing talents?

I haven't watch many games since Hyde was brought in. And since the O's have been an AAAA team for most of his tenure, no one wanted to be too critical of a guy managing a bad roster. But now that the O's are playing meaningful games, I've read/heard quite a few criticisms about him.

[Mackus]

I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that results from months ago are just as telling as results from a week or so ago. So I'll just say that I could not disagree more. 

 

https://tht.fangraph...the-postseason/

 

Not sure if this is the exact article I read that drove my thinking of why overall success is more indicative of "momentum" or September record, this one is kind of old now, but its on the topic.  It does a good job of illustrating that anecdotes abound in both directions, some WS champs got red hot in September and continued that in the postseason while others weren't strong in September but were great overall.  But the larger trends, which is what I'm talking about, indicate that being hot in September doesn't translate to October success but your overall record does (overall record does of course include September record).

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Unfortunately for us Seattle might have been the easiest team to catch but they finish the season with 10 straight at home against KC, Det, and Oak. About as weak a schedule as you can get. Now Seattle may be losing Julio Rodgriquez.

[Mackus]

Exactly, hard to see Seattle doing worse than slightly under 500 to finish. And if they do that, you basically need to be perfect to catch them.

4 back with 13 to play, but we lose the tiebreaker so gotta make up 5 games. If Seattle goes 5-8, O's would need to go 10-3. Their schedule is just too easy.

[weird-O]

https://tht.fangraph...the-postseason/

 

Not sure if this is the exact article I read that drove my thinking of why overall success is more indicative of "momentum" or September record, this one is kind of old now, but its on the topic.  It does a good job of illustrating that anecdotes abound in both directions, some WS champs got red hot in September and continued that in the postseason while others weren't strong in September but were great overall.  But the larger trends, which is what I'm talking about, indicate that being hot in September doesn't translate to October success but your overall record does (overall record does of course include September record).

I don't see how the record of a team for their whole season and their September results, correlates to head to head results between two teams in recent play. In my mind, they aren't the same thing. The results are simple. The O's got the better of them earlier in the season. This month, Toronto took 5 of 7. Those results are more telling of who these teams are today, than June results or August results, unfortunately, since the O's bested them in August.