614 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't see how the record of a team for their whole season and their September results, correlates to head to head results between two teams in recent play. In my mind, they aren't the same thing. The results are simple. The O's got the better of them earlier in the season. This month, Toronto took 5 of 7. Those results are more telling of who these teams are today, than June results or August results, unfortunately, since the O's bested them in August. 

 

Not exactly the same thing being tested, I agree.  But they are very similar things and the results point to momentum (i.e. recent results) not being as influential as overall results (i.e. overall results).

 

But, they are different.  So then do you wanna give me those 5-to-2 odds on each game coming up in October?  Not money, but pitchers for the table at the next BSL happy hour?  I'll do that for each game. Or the roughly 40-to-1 that parlays to for the sweep.  

 

I think the odds are much closer to the 50/50 outcome of the total season series (or the 560/523 ratio the teams overall records would imply). 

 

Either way the odds of a sweep are low.  12.5% if the games are coin flips.  ~2.3% if each game is 5/7 in favor of Toronto.

[weird-O]

Not exactly the same thing being tested, I agree.  But they are very similar things and the results point to momentum (i.e. recent results) not being as influential as overall results (i.e. overall results).

 

But, they are different.  So then do you wanna give me those 5-to-2 odds on each game coming up in October?  Not money, but pitchers for the table at the next BSL happy hour?  I'll do that for each game. Or the roughly 40-to-1 that parlays to for the sweep.  

 

I think the odds are much closer to the 50/50 outcome of the total season series (or the 560/523 ratio the teams overall records would imply). 

 

Either way the odds of a sweep are low.  12.5% if the games are coin flips.  ~2.3% if each game is 5/7 in favor of Toronto.

Damn, I love good bets like you suggested. But I'm outside of Houston. I'm not sure how we could make that work. Since you mentioned it. When does the BSL HH usually take place? I've seen it casually referred to, but I don't know much about it.  

[Mackus]

Damn, I love good bets like you suggested. But I'm outside of Houston. I'm not sure how we could make that work. Since you mentioned it. When does the BSL HH usually take place? I've seen it casually referred to, but I don't know much about it.

That last one was sometime in 2019 if my memory serves. So it's a pretty risk-free gamble.

[85Knight]

Wow Wells to the IL. Time to bring up Rodriguez.

Of course they're going with Watkins instead.

[85Knight]

As long as the O's win I want the Blue Jays and Rays to split.

[mdrunning]

The Royals just scored two runs in the bottom of the fifth and now lead the Mariners, 4-1.

[glenn__davis]

The Royals just scored two runs in the bottom of the fifth and now lead the Mariners, 4-1.

 5-1 now.  And the Rays just took the lead on the Jays in the 8th.  Could be a good night here.

[85Knight]

I don't care who it's against a 10 game road trip is tough. There's absolutely no reason to sound so disappointed with this season no matter how it ends. Having meaningful baseball in September is not what I expected so I'll hang in there with them until they're mathematically eliminated. I still see opportunity left on the schedule and I think the Mariners are in play now.

Bump!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Bump!

Again Ill say. They have to play the games but their last 10 games are all at home against bad teams. Even f they lose the next two to KC. 5-5 at home gets them to 87 wins which means we would need 88. Or a 9-3 finish

[85Knight]

Again Ill say. They have to play the games but their last 10 games are all at home against bad teams. Even f they lose the next two to KC. 5-5 at home gets them to 87 wins which means we would need 88. Or a 9-3 finish

😉

[Pedro Cerrano]

All things considered, good night for the good guys.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Make up 1 more game on Toronto in the loss column before the last series. It gives us a shot

[weird-O]

I'm not complaining, because you can't ask for anything more than this team and season have given. It's just odd that they can play Houston so tough, but lay down for the Tigers. 3 back looks much nicer that 5 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Gotta split these last 2 with Houston. Can't undo the great wins the last 2 nights.

[85Knight]

Gotta split these last 2 with Houston. Can't undo the great wins the last 2 nights.

A split definitely keeps us in the fight but man a sweep would be nice. That would put us squarely back in it with 10 games to go. We are so close.

[mdrunning]

Meanwhile, Seattle's lead over Kansas City shrunk faster than my portfolio. The Royals have put up 10 runs to take a 12-11 lead.

[glenn__davis]

Man, those last 2 games hurt.  SEA doing all they can to open the door for us and we wouldn't walk through.

[Mackus]

I know its not the main goal that we were striving for down the stretch, but I still get a smile about getting to 80 wins.  81 and especially 82 will have meaning as well.  What an insanely unexpected year.  Never got to even 80 wins during the dark time between 1997 and 2012.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I know its not the main goal that we were striving for down the stretch, but I still get a smile about getting to 80 wins.  81 and especially 82 will have meaning as well.  What an insanely unexpected year.  Never got to even 80 wins during the dark time between 1997 and 2012.

Yeah its pretty sweet to be sitting here on September 27th and still talking Orioles baseball. And the future looks pretty dang good. 

[85Knight]

Man, those last 2 games hurt. SEA doing all they can to open the door for us and we wouldn't walk through.

Man do they hurt. I was at the Saturday night game and I don't think I've ever left a baseball game feeling that disappointed. We were so close to really making these last 10 games matter.