406 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

Elias and company were brought in, in part for the systems they were bringing with them.   They clearly think they can limit the investment ($$) in pitchers, while taking advantage of pitchers who can spin the ball (amongst other things).  Last year, showed some promising results.  Let's see if it was the outlier or forward thinking that others in baseball will soon be copying.

[dude]

I'm going to agree with something...but this first....

You've read Moneyball by now right?

 

....they could get $100m production for a fraction of that. 

 

I have no idea. I'm still in watch and see mode.

 

Still think the amazing thing about Moneyball is they can hide in plain sight.

 

I understand what and why the community wants to characterize things in terms of dollars, but it's almost always immediately used wrong (as if it's real)

 

Just pointing out, it's year 5.  No matter what happens this year, we aren't going to "know" anything going into year 6, or probably 7.

[dude]

Some front offices march to the beat of their own drum, and the one this one marches too is built around certain pitching metrics that the whole of MLB doesn't really embrace yet. You're only competing with a small handfull of clubs that look for the same numbers, so you can get much more value by taking hitters higher in the draft, and swiping pitchers with these markers, then developing them into higher end prospects.

 

So 2 things.  This all is kind of missing my point.  I'm OK with what you're saying, but the endstate of that is (as far as we've seen to this point) is that there aren't any of the perceived 'more talented' pitchers that follow whatever model they are using.  NOBODY works until after the 7th round.

 

If you just want to mitigate your draft risk because 'your evaluation' says only draft white college bats, ok, but to Jordan's earlier point, seems like you might be passing on some better Talent (pitching, other) that SHOULD HAVE a higher celling.  We haven't actually used the system to do anything yet.  Every system (regardless of quality) has a Herniaz type they could trade to OAK.  That's not some amazing package that can only be delivered by one team. 

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The other point is I agree with part of what you're saying here and was going to quote others too.  There's a good piece on a recent OTV with Geoff (forget his last name) where he talks about ingredients for a cook.  The discussion there is if you have an elite French Chef, you want to provide the quality of ingredients they like to work with....that's how you get the best meal out of that style chef.  I think there's probably more separation in the analogy, like you don't really want to give a Vegan chef a steak to cook....or a Pastry chef a steak to cook....but the ideas are the same.

 

Elias has an approach that requires certain ingredients and they are looking for those ingredients.  Some teams aren't going to care because they have their own (maybe different) ingredients they are looking for and the Orioles aren't taking them.

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I'm not really pushing back on any of it.  I'm optimistic about 2023, but some teams would think an 81-81 projection is an embarrassment....Orioles fans are encouraged because they conditioned us to failure.  That's all just perception management.

 

It's more likely the Orioles finish 75-87 with the 15th best farm system than make the WS and maintain a top 5 system.  Hoping for the later, but the variance works in both directions.

[JeremyStrain]

I'm going to agree with something...but this first....

 

Still think the amazing thing about Moneyball is they can hide in plain site.

 

I understand what and why the community wants to characterize things in terms of dollars, but it's almost always immediately used wrong (as if it's real)

 

Just pointing out, it's year 5.  No matter what happens this year, we aren't going to "know" anything going into year 6, or probably 7.

Yep, I wont lie, for years I've been trying to look for those undervalued resources, but it's like secrets out, EVERYONE knows about that and I'm sure does it to a point. Then you stumble on something working for someone and you're like hey wait, here's another team doing exactly that, how is EVERYONE not doing this?

 

Really comes down to ego, and willingness to go out on a limb. You have to REALLY believe, kind of, that you are the smartest guy in the room, or in this case, the game, and TRUST that what you believe will work.

 

We said since this started that there was SOMETHING they were using, cause you could kind of see patterns just barely peeking through, but because the advanced stats they are using aren't publicly available we couldn't just go OH it's this and this and this. But if you dug enough you'd keep seeing EV pop up, barrel rates, launch angle things like that. You could see them taking guys with the same kind of profiles, and getting the same kinds of results all over the board, it just wasn't real obvious what they were using to predict that value. You could KINDA generalize it, but it was like reading a book with dirty glasses, it was there if you squinted hard enough but hard to make out.

 

Yeah, it's funny, I made the $$ reference and didn't even think about it. Just started thinking big picture and long term where you come out ahead, and it's those years where you get big production for less than market value...accountant brain you know? I know for me I look at certain areas of the roster and I'm like, you can't spend big there. You can't spend big there. Those are the replaceable spots on the roster, you can't go wasting the money you need for the important parts, cause some places, and some timelines just require you to spend market or above. Gotta make up for that in areas like your bench, bullpen, back of the rotation and minor league depth.

 

To your point, yes, in theory they are leaving very talented pitching on the table and creating a log jam of position players, others don't like that approach they are taking either, but if those talented players get there by means they are uncomfortable with and don't know how to work with, like your cooking analogy, maybe it's better if they just stay away from those ingredients. Don't try to cook French if you're a Soul Food expert.

[dude]

I'm way behind on these other 2 points I wanted to make...

 

1) Why is Cade Povich important?  If Elias thinks Povich is a hammer that is wild opportunity to impact the roster, then you do whatever you have to do.  This is the Tatis Jr. theory.  Some people want to act like trading "Shields for Tatis Jr" is a rebuilding move.  It's not.  If you think Tatis Jr is the guy (Talent) that he's emerged as, it doesn't matter where you are.  You target him and acquire him and develop him and the cost is the cost and who cares.  If you are winning and it costs you Piece X, then you just find another way to replace Piece X. Your job isn't to hold onto pieces and it's what's utterly wrong and total BS about the way the community has been led to a false endstate.  It's not 100% in or 100% out, you can compete and work for the future at the same time.  It's literally the job.

 

So if Povich is important, great.  If he's just inventory, that's horrible...because...

 

2) You are oddly in the position to make the Playoffs.  For me, it's not really about Lopez (or Mancini) because I think there's several significant things they could have done.  Again, it's not all one way or another, you get to manage the team to an endstate and that's the job.  You can trade Lopez and Mancini AND do other more relevant things.  Inventory is meaningless depth.  People don't like that, but we're there.  You never stop adding so whatever you trade or however you do it, you go get more, that's what you do if you're good.

 

MANY people had a perception that the Orioles would be aggressive when the time was right.  We've now been in a Playoff chase and an offseason in Year 5 after an 83-win season and they've essentially punted both.  Last deadline they actually went backwards.  It's not about the players they traded, it's about what they didn't do in terms of creating 2022 (and beyond) opportunity, given the opportunity.

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It's not about Povich or Lopez, it's about creating opportunity to win.  If Povich is an absolute hammer (meaning he has to be better++ than Means, Irvin, Hall...just on the left-side) awesome, but that never excuses taking the roster backwards.

 

...and then we thought having a Zoom call with Lopez and Mancini was the answer, which is a separate (not good) issue.

[Slidemaster]

You've read Moneyball by now right?

Some front offices march to the beat of their own drum, and the one this one marches too is built around certain pitching metrics that the whole of MLB doesn't really embrace yet. You're only competing with a small handfull of clubs that look for the same numbers, so you can get much more value by taking hitters higher in the draft, and swiping pitchers with these markers, then developing them into higher end prospects.

You know the saying no two draft boards are alike, well the O's may look REALLY weird to us, because of how much stock they put in those certain data points, they believe those are the true keys to MLB success. And watching what they are doing with middling picks and prospects, they haven't been proven wrong yet. Kinda like our not being happy with their two FA selections. But if they really believe they can get more out of their performance by leaning into those data points that they are already good at, they could get $100m production for a fraction of that. The problem is that it's still kind of a hypothesis, and they have to get it to actually perform in real life. If they do suddenly get really good performance out of those two, you better believe the whole league will be tearing apart their approach and poaching every exec they can hire. One could say it takes a LOT of ego to bet on themselves like that. Or another could say thinking outside the box may be the only way to compete if they aren't willing to go dollar for dollar with the big guns.

I have no idea. I'm still in watch and see mode. But I get most people are over watching and seeing, which is why I really don't give people who are fed up a hard time either.

Do you know specifically which data points they value higher than the rest of the field?

From a cursory glance, to me it looks like they particularly like tall pitchers with high velo and spin rates.

[BobPhelan]

^ They like hoppy fastballs with good induced vertical break and are confident in their ability to teach sweeping sliders and above average changeups as well. I think because they’re confident in their ability to improve pitchers that have certain metrics they don’t feel the need to reach for better raw talent.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

TNSTAAPP. Spending high value assets on young pitching is generally speaking a bad approach. No hard and fast rules of course. The further they are from the show the more I dislike it. I would be very unlikely to spend early draft picks on pitching. I also wouldnt target a pitcher as the main piece in a deal for an established high value ML asset. Sure when you trade a Jorge Lopez, Mancini,Dylan Bundy Im good with the Bradish's, Seth Johnson, and Povich's of the world coming back as the main. When you trade a Manny Machado I prefer the main piece being a bat. Of course that didnt work out with Manny but its still my general approach

[Slidemaster]

^ They like hoppy fastballs with good induced vertical break and are confident in their ability to teach sweeping sliders and above average changeups as well. I think because they’re confident in their ability to improve pitchers that have certain metrics they don’t feel the need to reach for better raw talent.

I suppose we'll find out if they can make that strategy work. Thanks for the insight.

[JeremyStrain]

Do you know specifically which data points they value higher than the rest of the field?

From a cursory glance, to me it looks like they particularly like tall pitchers with high velo and spin rates.

What Bob said. I know spin rates are big for them on pitchers. Seems like they like downward throwing plane (arm angle, hence taller pitchers). Ground ball rates are another one I've noticed, and they like low contact rates, more Ks, lower BB. That's just kind of following patterns, I'm sure there's some more behind the scenes stuff I don't know.

 

Like with hitters, launch angle and EV has been fairly obvious, and they like inverse of pitching, higher BB, lower K rates.

 

Would love to get a copy of a teams' metric notebook. Like today on Twitter a Rays RP put the team on blast for how they tore him down in arbitration, and he made his arguments public comparing himself to other similar RP around the league that are getting more than him, justifying his ask. He went into a couple interesting metrics they were using letting us peek behind the curtain for that team a bit. Thought it was fascinating. Especially cause one they used was rate called "meltdown %" which I think fangraphs uses maybe but no one else has ever heard of it. He was particularly peeved about that one.

[Slidemaster]

What Bob said. I know spin rates are big for them on pitchers. Seems like they like downward throwing plane (arm angle, hence taller pitchers). Ground ball rates are another one I've noticed, and they like low contact rates, more Ks, lower BB. That's just kind of following patterns, I'm sure there's some more behind the scenes stuff I don't know.

Like with hitters, launch angle and EV has been fairly obvious, and they like inverse of pitching, higher BB, lower K rates.

Would love to get a copy of a teams' metric notebook. Like today on Twitter a Rays RP put the team on blast for how they tore him down in arbitration, and he made his arguments public comparing himself to other similar RP around the league that are getting more than him, justifying his ask. He went into a couple interesting metrics they were using letting us peek behind the curtain for that team a bit. Thought it was fascinating. Especially cause one they used was rate called "meltdown %" which I think fangraphs uses maybe but no one else has ever heard of it. He was particularly peeved about that one.

I'm sure that the most advanced teams are far ahead of analysts that aren't directly affiliated with a club. I would love to see that also.

[BSLMikeLowe]

What Bob said. I know spin rates are big for them on pitchers. Seems like they like downward throwing plane (arm angle, hence taller pitchers). Ground ball rates are another one I've noticed, and they like low contact rates, more Ks, lower BB. That's just kind of following patterns, I'm sure there's some more behind the scenes stuff I don't know.

 

Like with hitters, launch angle and EV has been fairly obvious, and they like inverse of pitching, higher BB, lower K rates.

 

Would love to get a copy of a teams' metric notebook. Like today on Twitter a Rays RP put the team on blast for how they tore him down in arbitration, and he made his arguments public comparing himself to other similar RP around the league that are getting more than him, justifying his ask. He went into a couple interesting metrics they were using letting us peek behind the curtain for that team a bit. Thought it was fascinating. Especially cause one they used was rate called "meltdown %" which I think fangraphs uses maybe but no one else has ever heard of it. He was particularly peeved about that one.

So another good reason to avoid arbitration….to prevent your secret sauce recipe from getting out there.

[JeremyStrain]

I'm sure that the most advanced teams are far ahead of analysts that aren't directly affiliated with a club. I would love to see that also.

Yep, exactly. Funny thing about stats is that you can invent new ones pretty easily too. I'm sure there are a ton out there that we wouldn't even think of...probably things down to % of quality pitches or something crazy like that.

 

I remember when defensive stats were first coming out and the debate among people of the best way to accurately capture them without all the noise that can mess with them. Was really interesting stuff with fresh ideas and some of it led to the advanced metrics out there now.

[JeremyStrain]

So another good reason to avoid arbitration….to prevent your secret sauce recipe from getting out there.

Yep that was exactly what I thought too. I was like man this thread is absolute GOLD. Not only does he sway public opinion and paint them with a petty brush, but he also gets to out some internal stuff to the world. I hope more guys start doing the same thing. Could mean the end of arbitration if teams get worried that their in house secrets and how they treat players get outed publicly. I wouldn't want to risk the bad press or bad perception when it comes to free agency.

 

Look at MIL and Burnes. They wrecked that relationship over saving a couple hundred thousand? I don't think there's a chance he'd resign with them now, you can't take back stuff they said and fingers they pointed.

[Slidemaster]

Yep that was exactly what I thought too. I was like man this thread is absolute GOLD. Not only does he sway public opinion and paint them with a petty brush, but he also gets to out some internal stuff to the world. I hope more guys start doing the same thing. Could mean the end of arbitration if teams get worried that their in house secrets and how they treat players get outed publicly. I wouldn't want to risk the bad press or bad perception when it comes to free agency.

Look at MIL and Burnes. They wrecked that relationship over saving a couple hundred thousand? I don't think there's a chance he'd resign with them now, you can't take back stuff they said and fingers they pointed.

Woah. What did they say?

Also that tracks as 100% something the Orioles would do also, at least in years past.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Yep that was exactly what I thought too. I was like man this thread is absolute GOLD. Not only does he sway public opinion and paint them with a petty brush, but he also gets to out some internal stuff to the world. I hope more guys start doing the same thing. Could mean the end of arbitration if teams get worried that their in house secrets and how they treat players get outed publicly. I wouldn't want to risk the bad press or bad perception when it comes to free agency.

 

Look at MIL and Burnes. They wrecked that relationship over saving a couple hundred thousand? I don't think there's a chance he'd resign with them now, you can't take back stuff they said and fingers they pointed.

I wonder if that sort of thing could fall under a NDA. Always wondered why we don’t hear about those in pro sports. Maybe they just aren’t enforceable.

[JeremyStrain]

Woah. What did they say?

Also that tracks as 100% something the Orioles would do also, at least in years past.

There was an interview in ST the other day with him, right after he lost his case and the reporter was asking him does going to arb like this damage the relationship?

He said it absolutely does and things are no where near what they were a week before. Said that the facts and numbers are what they are but he was horrified that they painted him as the reason they didn’t make the playoffs and some other stuff he didn’t repeat. But you could tell he was NOT happy.

I thought the exact same thing. PA had a rep for being a guy you did NOT want to go to arb with and I couldn’t help but think that played a part in other players perceptions and if they wanted to come here.

[JeremyStrain]

I wonder if that sort of thing could fall under a NDA. Always wondered why we don’t hear about those in pro sports. Maybe they just aren’t enforceable.

Wondered the same but I imagine their has to be some protections , can’t force everyone to br quiet.

[makoman]

I thought the exact same thing. PA had a rep for being a guy you did NOT want to go to arb with and I couldn’t help but think that played a part in other players perceptions and if they wanted to come here.

Smouse was either undefeated or very close to it.

 

Then Guthrie said he wanted to go to arb to learn the process, and they traded him.

[Slidemaster]

There was an interview in ST the other day with him, right after he lost his case and the reporter was asking him does going to arb like this damage the relationship?

He said it absolutely does and things are no where near what they were a week before. Said that the facts and numbers are what they are but he was horrified that they painted him as the reason they didn’t make the playoffs and some other stuff he didn’t repeat. But you could tell he was NOT happy.

I thought the exact same thing. PA had a rep for being a guy you did NOT want to go to arb with and I couldn’t help but think that played a part in other players perceptions and if they wanted to come here.

That seems like an idiotic move on the Brewers part.

It's funny, I know a team that needs an ace starting pitcher, and has plenty of minor league talented trade! Maybe they should make a call.