492 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

How many #1 overall prospects have become total busts at the MLB level? Cuz we may have two on our team at the same time

Might as well make it three for ultimate hyperbole.

[Mike B]

Might as well make it three for ultimate hyperbole.

Take a deep breath at laugh at it Bob.  

[weird-O]

How many #1 overall prospects have become total busts at the MLB level? Cuz we may have two on our team at the same time

This question was so interesting to me, that I looked into it. I watched a video that covered 1990 to 2014. They determined that 8 of those picks were flops. of the 8 picks, 7 were pitchers. Delmon Young was the only non-pitcher on the list. I'm not sure I'd call him a flop. All 7 pitchers had arm injuries the derailed their careers. The one that truly was a bust, was Brien Taylor. He got into a fight at a family reunion, took a swing at someone, and totally missed him. In that swing, he dislocated his shoulder and tore his labrum. He never made it to the bigs.   

[Mackus]

This question was so interesting to me, that I looked into it. I watched a video that covered 1990 to 2014. They determined that 8 of those picks were flops. of the 8 picks, 7 were pitchers. Delmon Young was the only non-pitcher on the list. I'm not sure I'd call him a flop. All 7 pitchers had arm injuries the derailed their careers. The one that truly was a bust, was Brien Taylor. He got into a fight at a family reunion, took a swing at someone, and totally missed him. In that swing, he dislocated his shoulder and tore his labrum. He never made it to the bigs.

#1 overall picks bust somewhat often. They're usually good players, but the average #1 overall pick is only like an 18 WAR career, which is a nice player and no bust, but not really a star. And that's the average so half the top picks don't reach that level.

#1 overall propsects bust a lot less.

We were talking #1 overall propsects in this case. Of course some guys like Holliday, Rutschman, and Delmon Young who you mention were both.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

1 thing Ill give some of the Holliday critics, hes not an explosive athlete. Nor does he have 1 great skill. Which to be fair that was the scouting report out of high school. Its just that when you get to being the #1 overall prospect at 18 or 19 you kinda would love to see superstar potential. And none of that is to knock Jackson. I think he has the potential to be a damn fine player. An All Star caliber player. Just not a superstar. And on this one slidemaster Im pretty damn sure. Just not as explosive and dynamic as Gunnar.

[weird-O]

I read somewhere (I can't remember where) that he has exceptional speed, but he's not fast on the basepath. It's just not one of his skills.   

[makoman]

I read somewhere (I can't remember where) that he has exceptional speed, but he's not fast on the basepath. It's just not one of his skills.

Savant, which measures on the bases, has him 92nd percentile this year, 95th last year. So yeah he’s fast.

[NewMarketSean]

Biggest disappointment with Jackson so far is the OBP tool. 

[Mackus]

The OBP is (should be) a great skill. He had a freaking 20% walk rate in the upper minors. He has top-of-the-league potential in that regard. I think he projects to be good at contact and power, but something like 275/400/475 at his peak feels attainable.

[BSLRoseKatz]

The walks will come once the league thinks he can do enough damage on pitches in the zone to start challenging him less often, 92nd percentile chase rate + 5th percentile walk rate basically means he's simply not even seeing 4 pitches out of the zone in an at-bat that often

[BSLRoseKatz]

Top 25 for chase rate this year and he has by far the lowest BB% among those 25, think that's about how pitchers approach him far more than how he handles his at-bats

[BSLRoseKatz]

For more context: Holliday has only had 4 ABs with 3 balls and then seeing a 4th pitch out of the zone

 

Those 4 ABs have been a walk, a K looking on a tough call and two times he struck out

 

[BSLRoseKatz]

For double added context: Cedric has been in that situation 18 times (seeing ball 4 with a perfect zone) and James Wood and Marcell Ozuna lead the league with seeing a 4th pitch out of the zone 24 times