5 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

At this point in the off-season, the move I would most like to see happen is the addition of Cespedes (http://baltimorespor...ic.php?f=3&t=62). I'd be comfortable letting him take over LF, and moving Reimold to DH. I like that move because Cespedes has the chance to help immediately, and also be a contributor when this team is closer to contention. Also, if the O's decide to trade Jones at a later date, you would have an internal option for CF.

Obviously Fielder has been discussed to death (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=183), and I'll avoid him for the most part here. Bottom-line is that Fielder would help the O's over the length of his contract (large parts of it, at a minimum), and his addition remains unlikely. If he is not getting the years and money he seeks elsewhere, a slim chance remains that he can be lured here.

Past these two players, the FA most likely to still be helping a team in '14 is Edwin Jackson (http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=147). There are things to like about Jackson, and I think you can make the case for a 4 year deal for him. However, I ultimately think that is too much of an investment for him.

My focus with this post, is identifying a couple moves I would not advocate, which would improve this team for '12. The overall idea being if you are not going to be helping this team in '14, I'm ambivalent at best of you being added now. The main reasons why I would not advocate these moves is because they would still not allow the O's to contend, would be spending money which could be allocated Internationally (particularly before the new CBA takes effect), and could potentially block the O's from longer evaluations of players already here; who potentially could be helping you for a longer period of time.

Honestly, I have not looked at it, but this idea only gets worse if there were any compensatory draft losses with any of these signings.

Sign Roy Oswalt 1 year, $10M (Oswalt wants a 1 year deal, but to get him to Baltimore on a 1 year deal, Baltimore probably has to pay the O's tax. http://baltimorespor...c.php?f=3&t=312)

Sign Carlos Pena 1 year, $10M

Sign Francisco Cordero 1 year, $7.5

With the assumption that Chen, and Wada begin the year in the rotation; this would leave the O's looking like:

Oswalt, Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Wada
Cordero, Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Arrieta, Patton or Eveland

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Pena 1st
Reimold LF
Davis DH
Andino 2nd

Roberts, Teagarden, Antonelli or Flaherty, Chavez or Miller

AAA Norfolk would start the year with Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, and Simon on their staff. O'Day, Rapada, Phillips, and VandenHurk could also factor in the O's bullpen.

Logically, I do not think adding Oswalt, Pena, and Cordero makes a lot of sense. However, if each could be signed on 1 year deals, the risk is minimal. The rotation would be improved with not only Oswalt's arrival, but with Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Bergesen all available as other internal options during the season.

Spending $7.5M on another mediocre closer sounds like a waste of money, but it would be another arm who has had success in that capacity. The bullpen will ultimately be as good as the rotation in-front of it, but with Cordero, everyone slots down a peg, and in theory you improve as a whole.

Signing Pena does not block anyone on the roster as presently constructed. Davis still gets everyday ab's at DH. You add another guy with known power to the lineup.

Obviously with 1 year deals, each player could be an option to be traded at the non-waiver deadline.

So again, not the moves I would advocate, but they are moves I think would improve the O's for '12.

[SportsGuy]

I guess it depends on how you define improving.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I guess it depends on how you define improving.

Winning more games in 2012 than they otherwise would.

[SportsGuy]

I guess it depends on how you define improving.

Winning more games in 2012 than they otherwise would.

I think that's debateable that these moves equal more wins in 2012.

Pena could easily be done and his defense at first may not be as good as Davis.

Oswalt could be excellent but at his age, in this division, on a team going no where, he could struggle and also take innings away from a higher upside(at this point in their careers) pitcher.

Cordero is likely still a solid closer but relievers can be very up and down.

I think they would ultimately win more games with these additions but not many more and certainly not enough to justify bringing these guys in....not to mention, I doubt these guys would come here for 1, especially Oswalt.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I guess it depends on how you define improving.

Winning more games in 2012 than they otherwise would.

I think that's debateable that these moves equal more wins in 2012.

Pena could easily be done and his defense at first may not be as good as Davis.

Oswalt could be excellent but at his age, in this division, on a team going no where, he could struggle and also take innings away from a higher upside(at this point in their careers) pitcher.

Cordero is likely still a solid closer but relievers can be very up and down.

I think they would ultimately win more games with these additions but not many more and certainly not enough to justify bringing these guys in....not to mention, I doubt these guys would come here for 1, especially Oswalt.

The upside of their additions is probably 5 or 6 wins. The downside is probably 0. If Pena's defense was not as good at 1st as Davis, they could flip the two (Pena to DH, Davis to 1st).

I agree that Oswalt coming here for one year makes even less sense for him, then it does for the O's to be offering it. I'm not sure he has much left. I'd rather see the innings you would give him to Arrieta, Matusz etc. Still, with him as an option, Arrieta in the pen, and Matusz waiting in AAA; you are probably stronger as a team overall.

Cordero is slightly above average. Nothing special, and not really worth that contract. He probably would help the pen though.

[Adam Wolff]

I'd like to add Oswalt, as I think he has at least enough left in the tank to have a good first half and net us a couple prospects at the deadline. I have no idea why he would come here though, unless he had literally no other options. And if he has literally no other options, then there's probably a reason for it.

I like Pena, probably more than most. Maybe it's because I'm sick of players with 4/1 K to BB ratios or because (like chicks) I dig the long ball, but I'd like to see Carlos come here. Again, if he has a good enough first half, maybe a playoff team looking for a DH or a team with an injury flips us a prospect or two for him. Can you imagine the strikeout totals with Pena, Davis, and Reynolds in one lineup?

I'm not interested in Cordero. I'm okay with the O's current bullpen situation and nothing frustrates me more than the amount of money the Orioles have invested in bullpen arms over the years, nearly all of which has not been money well spent.

I'm not sure how much sense it would make for the Orioles to sign Oswalt and Pena, as they clearly aren't going to be around long term or anything. I guess if they aren't real expensive, it would be worth it. I think it puts a slightly better product on the field and hopefully they could bring us a few prospects.