41 replies to this topic

[jamesdean]

Lost in all this talk about guaranteed, mega deals is Lamar's performance itself. If 2022 looks more like his last several games before getting hurt, all bets are off. If 2019 Lamar returns, back up the Brinks Truck.

[Mike B]

Lost in all this talk about guaranteed, mega deals is Lamar's performance itself. If 2022 looks more like his last several games before getting hurt, all bets are off. If 2019 Lamar returns, back up the Brinks Truck.

I mentioned this in another thread.   I think the team may be nervous about some of the things that we saw in 2021.  I think the return of Stanley, Dobbins, Edwards, the drafting on Linderbaum and some other additions will land LJ closer to the 2019 version than the 21 version, but if I was the one paying out 50 M per year, I might be nervous too.

[Slidemaster]

I mentioned this in another thread. I think the team may be nervous about some of the things that we saw in 2021. I think the return of Stanley, Dobbins, Edwards, the drafting on Linderbaum and some other additions will land LJ closer to the 2019 version than the 21 version, but if I was the one paying out 50 M per year, I might be nervous too.

Genuinely - I don't mean this in an "I told you so" sort of way - I've been saying this since the middle of last season and was trashed for it relentlessly. I don't understand how some of you have come around to this kind of thinking in the offseason.

[Mike B]

Genuinely - I don't mean this in an "I told you so" sort of way - I've been saying this since the middle of last season and was trashed for it relentlessly. I don't understand how some of you have come around to this kind of thinking in the offseason.

For the record, I am not that worried about Lamar..  I think with the return of the injured guys and hopefully with contributions of some of the new guys, LJ will be playing at a high level.  I think the defenses did not have to worry about the supporting cast last year.  But I think the team may want to see it before guaranteeing 250-300 M. 

[bmore_ken]

Genuinely - I don't mean this in an "I told you so" sort of way - I've been saying this since the middle of last season and was trashed for it relentlessly. I don't understand how some of you have come around to this kind of thinking in the offseason.

You got trashed because he was playing with a crippled team and you acted like it was all his fault that the team wasn't doing well

[Slidemaster]

You got trashed because he was playing with a crippled team and you acted like it was all his fault that the team wasn't doing well

And yet, now people have come around to the fact that he might not be worth the money he's demanding, without another down of football being played.

[jamesdean]

Genuinely - I don't mean this in an "I told you so" sort of way - I've been saying this since the middle of last season and was trashed for it relentlessly. I don't understand how some of you have come around to this kind of thinking in the offseason.

He was playing with a compromised cast of characters for sure but what I didn't like was that he seemed slower to me. He wasn't getting around the edge with same acceleration and burst. He was playing tentatively and seemed confused and rattled at times. It wasn't entirely his fault, especially with the sieve pass protection but a quarterback being paid top tier money should possess a little more composure.

[bmore_ken]

And yet, now people have come around to the fact that he might not be worth the money he's demanding, without another down of football being played.

First of all he hasn't actually asked for anything. Unless I missed a news story. Secondly no one is saying he's not worth what he'll eventually get. Again unless I missed a post The concern I see is about a potentially fully guaranteed contract like Watson's. 

[makoman]

I highly doubt the Ravens are nervous about the pure amount, unless they've been lying this whole time about really wanting him back. The market has definitely gone up, but everyone knew it was going to be in Allen territory at least, and there's not a whole lot of difference between Allen money and Watson money. Add another $2-3M/yr to Watson money and it's still just a difference in degree. Even with last year, I can't imagine them thinking he's not worth substantially more than Derek Carr, so that's just the market. You are either playing in the top end market or you aren't. I can understand being philosophically against paying so much cap % to one player, but it didn't seem like that's the team's position.

 

I could understand the team being nervous about the potential guarantees though. It's obviously a violent sport. People get hurt and even if their careers don't end they are never the same. I guess I could say the same thing as above, once you get over $100M guaranteed it isn't all that different from fully guaranteed, but Watson just feels a lot different to me and I'm not even the one signing the checks.

[bmore_ken]

I highly doubt the Ravens are nervous about the pure amount, unless they've been lying this whole time about really wanting him back. The market has definitely gone up, but everyone knew it was going to be in Allen territory at least, and there's not a whole lot of difference between Allen money and Watson money. Add another $2-3M/yr to Watson money and it's still just a difference in degree. Even with last year, I can't imagine them thinking he's not worth substantially more than Derek Carr, so that's just the market. You are either playing in the top end market or you aren't. I can understand being philosophically against paying so much cap % to one player, but it didn't seem like that's the team's position.

 

I could understand the team being nervous about the potential guarantees though. It's obviously a violent sport. People get hurt and even if their careers don't end they are never the same. I guess I could say the same thing as above, once you get over $100M guaranteed it isn't all that different from fully guaranteed, but Watson just feels a lot different to me and I'm not even the one signing the checks.

I would assume there's something in the contract to mitigate the team's risk. But then again , it is the Browns.

[BSLMikeFast]

Then the Ravens need to start planning for a new QB.  The 100% guaranteed QB mega deal will cripple a team if everything doesn't go 100% right and even then there are major risks.

Agreed. I see no way they give him a fully-guaranteed deal.

[makoman]

I would assume there's something in the contract to mitigate the team's risk. But then again , it is the Browns.

Who knows, but I assume guaranteed means guaranteed, other than the standard clauses like conduct detrimental to the league or team or whatever. I suppose if the various civil trials cause things to go sideways such clauses might be invoked. Would certainly get messy. Especially given the exhaustive investigations the team claims it performed.

[Mike B]

I would assume there's something in the contract to mitigate the team's risk. But then again , it is the Browns.

Maybe there is a morals clause, but the chances of the Browns getting out of the deal are probably not high.

[bmore_ken]

Maybe there is a morals clause, but the chances of the Browns getting out of the deal are probably not high.

You're probably right. I just know NFL contracts tend to have some very creative accounting 

[JStruds]

First of all he hasn't actually asked for anything. Unless I missed a news story.

That occurred to me after reading Slide's post too. The only thing even close to that was a rumor/report that he turned down a substantial offer from the team.

I think all of us are worried about what the damned Browns created with the Watson contract.

[Mackus]

I keep hearing people make bad assumptions on what the 2023 franchise tag will be.  The radio hosts around here care very little for accuracy.

 

Overthecap is currently projecting it as $31.5M.  

https://overthecap.c...nd-rfa-tenders/

 

People assume that the tag for a given year is the average of the top-5 players at that time.  But according to this its actually a five-year rolling average scaled to each year's cap.  The current top-5 guys are Rodgers ($50.27M APY), Watson ($46M), Mahomes ($45M), Allen ($43M), and Carr ($40M), which is an average of $44.85M.  But the 2022 franchise tag for QBs is only $29.7M.  Way below the average of the top-5.  Because its not just the 2022 average, its the average from 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 as well, all scaled relative to the cap each season.

 

The current projection is based on that formula with assumptions for what the average of the top-5 guys will be and what the cap will be in 2023.  If the cap goes way higher than the projected increase, then the tag will go up proportionally.  If the top-5 guys all go way higher (which isn't happening since only one or two more contracts are due) then the tag will only go up fractionally because the current top-5 is only 1/5th of that part of the calculation.

 

$23M for 2022 on the 5th year option.  $32M on the 2023 franchise tag.  $38M on the 2024 tag (20% raise).  If the '23 tag goes up a bit, the '24 tag goes up accordingly.

[bmore_ken]

I keep hearing people make bad assumptions on what the 2023 franchise tag will be.  The radio hosts around here care very little for accuracy.

 

Overthecap is currently projecting it as $31.5M.  

https://overthecap.c...nd-rfa-tenders/

 

People assume that the tag for a given year is the average of the top-5 players at that time.  But according to this its actually a five-year rolling average scaled to each year's cap.  The current top-5 guys are Rodgers ($50.27M APY), Watson ($46M), Mahomes ($45M), Allen ($43M), and Carr ($40M), which is an average of $44.85M.  But the 2022 franchise tag for QBs is only $29.7M.  Way below the average of the top-5.  Because its not just the 2022 average, its the average from 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 as well, all scaled relative to the cap each season.

 

The current projection is based on that formula with assumptions for what the average of the top-5 guys will be and what the cap will be in 2023.  If the cap goes way higher than the projected increase, then the tag will go up proportionally.  If the top-5 guys all go way higher (which isn't happening since only one or two more contracts are due) then the tag will only go up fractionally because the current top-5 is only 1/5th of that part of the calculation.

 

$23M for 2022 on the 5th year option.  $32M on the 2023 franchise tag.  $38M on the 2024 tag (20% raise).  If the '23 tag goes up a bit, the '24 tag goes up accordingly.

I seriously appreciate you guys who crunch these numbers. 

[Old Man]

The downside to paying Lamar what he is worth and he gets his mega deal.

 

Comes at a cost, against the cap and what they can do for supporting cast.

[bmore_ken]

The downside to paying Lamar what he is worth and he gets his mega deal.

 

Comes at a cost, against the cap and what they can do for supporting cast.

That's cap life in the NFL. 

[Old Man]

That's cap life in the NFL. 

Seams that when it happen with Flacco, it didnt sit well with come.