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Balt Sun: Orioles altering Camden Yards’ left-field dimensions amid ballpark’s historic home run binge


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#941 jamesdean

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 10:45 AM

Maybe, you have to admit, last year's staff was pretty bad, overall.
 
With the exception of Means, all the other starters had terrible ERA, with 3 of them in the 6+ category.


Yeah, they were an abomination for sure but when you are that devoid of talent and then pitching in the original, claustrophobic band box dimensions, its going to be a blood bath.
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#942 Mackus

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 10:55 AM

Here are some L/R hitting splits:

 

O's LHB had a 701 OPS at home in 1198 PA and a 730 OPS on the road in 1210 PA

O's RHB had a 681 OPS at home in 1776 PA and a 683 OPS on the road in 1865 PA 

 

O's pitchers allowed LHH a 688 OPS at home in 1222 PA and a 754 OPS on the road in 1023 PA

O's pitchers allowed RHB a 724 OPS at home in 1917 PA and a 731 OPS on the road in 1896 PA

 

So OPACY had a 107 park effect for OPS by LHH and a 101 park effect for OPS by RHH.  Makes sense that lefties had an easier time of it than righties, I'm slightly surprised that both are above 100 for OPS given the overall effect for runs was neutral, but that may just be reflective of the Orioles poor situational hitting (and maybe the pitching staff's ability to get out of trouble).


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#943 dude

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 01:41 PM

Did I at least win a Walmart gift card for predicting their E.R.A. would be reduced by a full run?

 

I'll allow it (how much should it be?), but the issue will be causality.



#944 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 02:20 PM

Did I at least win a Walmart gift card for predicting their E.R.A. would be reduced by a full run?

 

Didn't you predict that the ERA would drop by a full run solely because of the new dimensions?  I'm not sure that 26 fewer home runs, some of which became doubles and triples, get you there.



#945 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 02:25 PM

Couple more points.

 

1) Was there any "more exciting" play as a function of the dimension changes?  I don't recall one or remember discussion of one. If someone can pull the video, I'd love to see one.  When Mancini hit his inside-the-park homerun, I thought that would be one....but it was to right-field.

 

I think Mateo might have hit a triple or two to LF, but, yeah, nothing that really springs to mind.  I also think Urias hit a couple of homers right at Elrod's/Devereaux's corner and there was some excitement about what would happen, but they ended up in the bullpen.



#946 jamesdean

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 02:30 PM

I thought you predicted that the ERA would drop by a full run solely because of the new dimensions.  I'm not sure that 26 fewer home runs, some of which became doubles and triples, get you there.


I just thought that because of the wall, it would reduce their E.R.A. by a run. I didn't specify how that would come about. Obviously, I figured homeruns would be reduced but I also felt that Oriole pitchers would possibly attack the strikezone more, be more confident in their stuff, play up to their strengths defensively and just create a more competitive presence on the mound. Granted, I had no way of predicting who these pitchers would be as the season evolved.

#947 jamesdean

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 02:32 PM

I'll allow it (how much should it be?), but the issue will be causality.


Enough so I can feed my cat for a couple of months.

#948 dude

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 06:52 PM

Enough so I can feed my cat for a couple of months.

 

How much is that.



#949 jamesdean

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Posted 12 October 2022 - 07:04 PM

How much is that.

About $20 worth of Fancy Feast dry food. 


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#950 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 October 2022 - 12:05 PM

I haven't kept up, did the team ERA drop because of the wall?  :mrgreen:


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#951 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 11:54 AM

Ok but I would like the rest of the picture. What's the breakdown of those 31 lost HRs? Singles, doubles, triples, and outs. If 25 of those were doubles that's an entirely different story than if 25 of those were outs.

 

Here's the Baltimore Sun on what happened with all 57 lost home runs:

 

Rather than hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 on those 57 balls as they would have a year ago, batters slashed .436/.421/.872. Here’s the breakdown of those lost home runs by result: one singleone triple, 22 doubles and 33 outs, two of which were sacrifice flies. On three of those doubles, the Orioles managed to throw out the opposing batter trying to reach third base; in that sense, 36 balls in play that would have been home runs in 2021 resulted in outs in 2022.

 

Going deep on ‘Walltimore’: A by-the-numbers look at the first season of the Orioles’ new left field wall – Baltimore Sun


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#952 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 11:56 AM

And here's the Sun on the possible impact of the LFer playing deeper.

 

In truth, there are some aspects of the new dimensions that are much harder to quantify, at least with publicly available info. Elias noted one of them in regard to what the changes possibly did mentally for pitchers.

 

Although would-be home runs proved fairly trackable, it’s much harder to determine the other hits that fell in or became outs because left fielders were playing deeper to cover the added playing surface from the changes. Among the more than 50 left fielders who played that position for at least 1,000 plate appearances, Hays tied for the fourth-deepest average starting position, with that metric notably also including road games.

 

On a broad scale, there is some measurable influence. Hitters had a .226 average on fly balls to left field with a projected distance between 200 and 300 feet. In the seven previous seasons — those that Statcast has tracked — the highest mark in that regard came in 2019 at .157. Every other season was at least 100 points below 2022′s figure. Of the 28 hits, 22 were singles, mostly seemingly falling in front of left fielders. None of the other seasons had more than 22 such hits total.


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