953 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

For my most recent article: I looked at the production for two of our main RHHs who were on the roster last year and this year with Hays and Mountcastle and they've both been better at home, which I definitely wasn't expecting 

 

[jamesdean]

Orioles team E.R.A. sitting at 3.86.  Long live the wall! 

[weird-O]

The Astros announcers were laughing it up and going on and on about Trey hitting a 384 foot double. Of course, their righty hitters can bunt home runs into the Crawford boxes.

[jamesdean]

The Astros announcers were laughing it up and going on and on about Trey hitting a 384 foot double. Of course, their righty hitters can bunt home runs into the Crawford boxes.

Yeah, that place is a bandbox for sure. Still, I think the new Yankee Stadium takes the cake. I'm surprised Mr. PED doesn't have 80 homeruns.

[Mackus]

Just a few games left and OPACY is playing as a very slight hitter's park this year.  Which is down from the recent past when it played as clear hitters park (though not always extreme) but not nearly as run-reducing as the numbers bore out over the first half of the year. Will be interesting to see how things level out as we get towards an actual reasonable sample. 1 year is very noisy and not really worth too much.

 

8.42 runs/game at home

8.28 runs/game on the road

 

 

Pitching gives up 4.12 runs at home (3.74 ERA) and 4.24 on the road (4.14 ERA).

Offense scores 4.31 runs at home (694 OPS) and 4.04 runs on the road (690 OPS).  

 

Seems interesting to me that there were far more unearned runs scored at home, i.e. a bigger delta between RA and ERA.  Gotta just be a quirk.

[Mackus]

 

 

150 HR at Camden Yards so far this year (78 for the O's, 72 allowed).

277 HR at Camden Yards last year (122 for the O's, 155 allowed).

 

 

Big drops in homers for the pitching both home and away, though of course much bigger at home due to the new dimensions.  155 to 72 at home.  103 to 88 on the road.

 

There was never any doubt the dramatic changes to the park would reduce homers.  Question was just what ratio of those homers would become each of triples, doubles, and outs and what percentage of former shallow flyouts or lineouts would become singles (or maybe a few doubles) since the outfielders now have to play deeper and how does the overall result impact run scoring.  One year isn't enough a sample to know with much confidence, but early returns are that it has the desired effect of making the park play more or less neutral.  

 

Of course, the data is inherently very noisy, so it being 101 this year doesn't mean it can't be 90 or 110 next year.  Here are the 1-year park effects for the stadium from '11-21 (omitted 2020 because its a laughably small sample played entirely in peak weather):

2021 - 117

2019 - 109

2018 - 98

2017 - 103

2016 - 95

2015 - 123

2014 - 93

2013 - 106

2012 - 117

2011 - 100

 

3- or even 5-year park effects are better.  We can't look at that yet, of course, since the reconfiguration is only one year old.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

For my most recent article: I looked at the production for two of our main RHHs who were on the roster last year and this year with Hays and Mountcastle and they've both been better at home, which I definitely wasn't expecting 

 

How are their home splits compared to last year. Or the last few years??

[jamesdean]

150 HR at Camden Yards so far this year (78 for the O's, 72 allowed).
277 HR at Camden Yards last year (122 for the O's, 155 allowed).
 
 
Big drops in homers for the pitching both home and away, though of course much bigger at home due to the new dimensions.  155 to 72 at home.  103 to 88 on the road.
 
There was never any doubt the dramatic changes to the park would reduce homers.  Question was just what ratio of those homers would become each of triples, doubles, and outs and what percentage of former shallow flyouts or lineouts would become singles (or maybe a few doubles) since the outfielders now have to play deeper and how does the overall result impact run scoring.  One year isn't enough a sample to know with much confidence, but early returns are that it has the desired effect of making the park play more or less neutral.  
 
Of course, the data is inherently very noisy, so it being 101 this year doesn't mean it can't be 90 or 110 next year.  Here are the 1-year park effects for the stadium from '11-21 (omitted 2020 because its a laughably small sample played entirely in peak weather):
2021 - 117
2019 - 109
2018 - 98
2017 - 103
2016 - 95
2015 - 123
2014 - 93
2013 - 106
2012 - 117
2011 - 100
 
3- or even 5-year park effects are better.  We can't look at that yet, of course, since the reconfiguration is only one year old.

I agree you have to have multiple years in order to truly assess how much of an impact it will have but I feel pretty confident the days of Camden Yards being a homerun launching pad are over. Of course the quality of your pitching staff dictates a lot of that too.

[BSLRoseKatz]

From Baseball Savant, RHB pulling flyballs at Camden

 

2021: .492 AVG/1.785 SLG (1.292 ISO)

 

2022: .410 AVG/1.287 SLG (.876 ISO)

[Mackus]

Fun with numbers...

 

 

2 games played on the road in the last two days have changed the OPACY park effect for the season from 102 to 97.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Jason Bernard@JasonBernard_·

 

A random season wrap up, final numbers on Baltimore's wall change:

 

57 balls hit in that area would've been homers in 2021 31 of those were hit by an Oriole

 

Most HRs lost:

 

6 - Trey Mancini

5 - Ryan Mountcastle

4 - Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias

[Mackus]

Final park effect for runs for the year is 99.  

 

678 runs scored at home.  684 runs score on the road.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Jason Bernard@JasonBernard_·

 

A random season wrap up, final numbers on Baltimore's wall change:

 

57 balls hit in that area would've been homers in 2021 31 of those were hit by an Oriole

 

Most HRs lost:

 

6 - Trey Mancini

5 - Ryan Mountcastle

4 - Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias

Ok but I would like the rest of the picture. What's the breakdown of those 31 lost HRs? Singles, doubles, triples, and outs. If 25 of those were doubles that's an entirely different story than if 25 of those were outs.

[Mackus]

Ok but I would like the rest of the picture. What's the breakdown of those 31 lost HRs? Singles, doubles, triples, and outs. If 25 of those were doubles that's an entirely different story than if 25 of those were outs.

 

The one-year park effect for runs isn't the answer to all those valid questions, but the stadium had its lowest single-year park effect (99) for runs since 2018.  In addition to the breakdown of those 31 batted balls that would've been homeruns, also gotta wonder how many balls that used to be caught by shallow-playing LF now fall in for singles, doubles, or maybe even some triples.  The link below calculates 1-year park effects for R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, and BB, so it might be fun to play around with.  1-year data is very noisy, even for stadiums without changes, as you'll notice.

 

https://www.espn.com...tats/parkfactor

2021 - 117
2019 - 109
2018 - 98
2017 - 103
2016 - 95
2015 - 123
2014 - 93
2013 - 106
2012 - 117
2011 - 100
 

[dude]

The one-year park effect for runs isn't the answer to all those valid questions, but the stadium had its lowest single-year park effect (99) for runs since 2018.  In addition to the breakdown of those 31 batted balls that would've been homeruns, also gotta wonder how many balls that used to be caught by shallow-playing LF now fall in for singles, doubles, or maybe even some triples.

 

This was the point I was making 30-some pages ago in this thread.  We can pull the LF batted ball data now and compare hit charts from 2021 (or previous) to 2022.  Someone was tracking the BABIP for balls to LF (in this thread? I didn't look back) and the BABIP data skewed heavily towards today with more 'other' hits falling (don't know what the data is now).

 

There was/is zero doubt that the Wall would negatively impact RHed HR power. #physics.

[dude]

Couple more points.

 

1) Was there any "more exciting" play as a function of the dimension changes?  I don't recall one or remember discussion of one. If someone can pull the video, I'd love to see one.  When Mancini hit his inside-the-park homerun, I thought that would be one....but it was to right-field.

 

2) I don't recall any issues wrt injury risk on the angles/corners.  So that's good.

 

3) It's weird, but this was supposed to be a big help to left-handers, but almost all of the better performing pitchers this year were RHed.

[jamesdean]

Did I at least win a Walmart gift card for predicting their E.R.A. would be reduced by a full run?

[Old Man]

Did I at least win a Walmart gift card for predicting their E.R.A. would be reduced by a full run?

I suspect this same staff pitching in last year's park, would have reduced their E.R.A by a full run.

[jamesdean]

I suspect this same staff pitching in last year's park, would have reduced their E.R.A by a full run.

Conversely, I think last year's staff pitching in this year's park would have had a full run lower E.R.A. too.

[Old Man]

Conversely, I think last year's staff pitching in this year's park would have had a full run lower E.R.A. too.

Maybe, you have to admit, last year's staff was pretty bad, overall.

 

With the exception of Means, all the other starters had terrible ERA, with 3 of them in the 6+ category.