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Lamar's Extension


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#41 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:47 PM

I would absolutely buy low, but I doubt Lamar's camp is open to that.

If the price tag was 25 million a year I wouldn't have even made this thread.

 

I'm meaning like $41M instead of $46M.



#42 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:48 PM

It took us how long to find Flacco after a giant string of dud QBs in the draft? And then Lamar burst onto the scene....

Not saying I'm comfortable giving Lamar $40 million per, but let's not forget how bad it could be (Boller, Redman, etc.)


I think this is more Ravens PTSD speaking than actual risk. Is it possible we would go 10+ years without a good QB? Yes. Likely? No.

#43 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:49 PM

I'm meaning like $41M instead of $46M.


To me they're the same number when they're that close.

#44 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:52 PM

It's been about 50% recently if you count all the questionable ones as wins (and we don't have any other later-on swaps from miss to hit or vice versa). If I really wanted to consider it from a percentages standpoint in my evaluation I'd probably peg the likelihood of a success as 35-40%. Because sometimes even when they are successful, they aren't right away so how do you count for the year or two of mediocre play before finding success? Only the good things done in the first 4 years count in your plan, as you're gonna let guys walk instead of sign them. Because even if they aren't gonna get highest-paid-in-the-league QB money, the going rate for Kirk Cousins and Jarrod Goff level guys is now about $35M. I'd have to think about this more, but somewhere around 50% would be absolute max end of this guess.

I don't know what "worth the money" means exactly, but I'm confident in giving him the contract so clearly above 50% confidence in the move or I wouldn't make it. 70% confident right now I guess? If I think Lamar is worth $38M one season playing on a $45M contract, I doubt I'm considering that a bad investment.

Bigger hole to dig out of a bad 1st round QB than a bad contract, IMO. Even the most massive of contracts will be able to be shook lose after about 3 years and then one year of cap hell with a very big but manageable dead money number. (Allen can be cut after '24 for cap neutral with huge dead number, for example). I also don't think that the bad contract would be as likely to lead to terrible football as a bad rookie QB would be, worst case with Lamar should be something like this season (blech) and worst case with a bad rookie QB would be 4-5 wins (depth of Ravens org should keep them from being a 0-3 win total nightmare). Except for a year lost to injury, if Lamar gets knocked out in Week 3, that's gonna be a year with only a handful of wins at most, down into bad rookie territory.

So to that I ask, how long did it take the Cards to move in from Josh Rosen?

They knew basically right away he wasn't the guy, and he was traded within what...a year? He got a season or less? If you draft the wrong guy I think it's much more simple to just replace him and move on, with fewer dead seasons invested into him.

I think Lamar is very likely to at least be something around league average for most of his contract. I just don't want to pay 45 million a year for league average.

#45 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:53 PM

To me they're the same number when they're that close.

 

OK, but then isn't Lamar at $46M the same as Cousins or Wentz or whatever facsimile you'd be lucky to draft signing for $33M (or more inflated several years down the road)?

 

If this is a Lamar versus the "next guy" debate I disagree with preferring the "next guy".  But if this is a "never ever sign a QB and ALWAYS just hunt for the next guy" plan then I disagree a lot more strongly.  That plan is pure fantasy.  


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#46 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:55 PM

OK, but then isn't Lamar at $46M the same as Cousins or Wentz or whatever facsimile you'd be lucky to draft signing for $33M (or more inflated several years down the road)?

If this is a Lamar versus the "next guy" debate I disagree with preferring the "next guy". But if this is a "never ever sign a QB and ALWAYS just hunt for the next guy" plan then I disagree a lot more strongly. That plan is pure fantasy.


It isn't the latter.

However, I'm not sure what Cousins or Wentz has to do with this. A rookie QB deal is a bargain, and the best chance to build a powerhouse.

#47 makoman

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:56 PM

Even if it's not quite that bleak, Lamar is capable of so much more than what you get from most QBs.  Several perfectly acceptable QBs aren't nearly as good as Lamar.  Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jarrod Goff, Carson Wentz.  Those guys have to be considered draft wins, but I'd much rather have Lamar than one of them and $10-20M in cap space.  If you happen to get lucky and find one of those guys, they're effectively as expensive as Lamar is after a few years.  So even if half the QBs you might draft are wins, only half of those wins would end up really being better options than Lamar.  And that's only if Lamar doesn't return to Superman.  Lamar at Superman levels is better than nearly everything else.

Yeah Carr is making 25/year. Wentz 32. Goff 33. Cousins 33. Garoppolo 27.5. Tannehill 29.5, Ryan 30. Dak is making 40. When you look at it that way Lamar at 43 is a bargain. 2020 Lamar is definitely a bargain. 2019 Lamar is an insane win. Even if you only think it's a coinflip he gets back to where he was I think you have to take the shot. Those guys don't have the ceiling of best player in the league.



#48 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:57 PM

So to that I ask, how long did it take the Cards to move in from Josh Rosen?

They knew basically right away he wasn't the guy, and he was traded within what...a year? He got a season or less? If you draft the wrong guy I think it's much more simple to just replace him and move on, with fewer dead seasons invested into him.

I think Lamar is very likely to be something around league average for most of his contract. I just don't want to pay 45 million a year for league average.

 

Dolphins moved on after a year then drafted another questionable guy they almost traded this year for a serial sexual abuser (accused).

 

Jets moved on Darnold after two then drafter another guy that looks like a flop.

 

Not sure either example is a good one.  With the capital that it likely costs to move up and draft your guy in the early 1st, I'm not sure you have the ammo to move on from a mistake quickly and find the next guy in short order.  If you've traded next year's 1st already to draft Rosen or Darnold or Tua, then you can't decide they are a miss and draft the next guy for at least two years. And then at that point you've wasted two years and now have another rookie to start the whole process over with hopefully different results.  I'd have just kept Lamar and I think been a lot better off.

 

Really good QB on his rookie contract is the holy grail.  Incredibly difficult to find.  If you don't have one of those guys, star QB making star QB money (Lamar) is the next best thing.



#49 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:02 PM

It isn't the latter.

However, I'm not sure what Cousins or Wentz has to do with this. A rookie QB deal is a bargain, and the best chance to build a powerhouse.

 

Cousins and Wentz are examples of what would have to be considered very successful finds in the draft if you move on from Lamar.

 

I'd prefer Lamar or another star QB like Allen even at full freight pricing to a third-tier QB like Cousins or Wentz even on a rookie contract.  And I still think you're well below a coinflip to end up with even a Cousins/Wentz/Goff type when you decide to let Lamar walk.  And then even if you find that guy, seems like you are only keeping them on their rookie deal rather than pay them $35M+ or whatever it costs by then, and so they walk and you're back to your way below a coinflip plan. 



#50 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:03 PM

Dolphins moved on after a year then drafted another questionable guy they almost traded this year for a serial sexual abuser (accused).

Jets moved on Darnold after two then drafter another guy that looks like a flop.

Not sure either example is a good one. With the capital that it likely costs to move up and draft your guy in the early 1st, I'm not sure you have the ammo to move on from a mistake quickly and find the next guy in short order. If you've traded next year's 1st already to draft Rosen or Darnold or Tua, then you can't decide they are a miss and draft the next guy for at least two years. And then at that point you've wasted two years and now have another rookie to start the whole process over with hopefully different results. I'd have just kept Lamar and I think been a lot better off.

Really good QB on his rookie contract is the holy grail. Incredibly difficult to find. If you don't have one of those guys, star QB making star QB money (Lamar) is the next best thing.


So the Cardinals took Rosen, and then flipped him to the Dolphins and took Murray the very next year.

Please don't compare the Jets to the Ravens. They might as well be playing different sports.

#51 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:05 PM

So the Cardinals took Rosen, and then flipped him to the Dolphins and took Murray the very next year.

Please don't compare the Jets to the Ravens. They might as well be playing different sports.

 

A team being so bad that they get the #1 pick is an example of a winning outcome in your estimation?



#52 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:06 PM

Cousins and Wentz are examples of what would have to be considered very successful finds in the draft if you move on from Lamar.

I'd prefer Lamar or another star QB like Allen even at full freight pricing to a third-tier QB like Cousins or Wentz even on a rookie contract. And I still think you're well below a coinflip to end up with even a Cousins/Wentz/Goff type when you decide to let Lamar walk. And then even if you find that guy, seems like you are only keeping them on their rookie deal rather than pay them $35M+ or whatever it costs by then, and so they walk and you're back to your way below a coinflip plan.


Again, are you forced to give them mega deals?

Here's another question.

How many QB mega deals have actually worked out?

#53 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:08 PM

A team being so bad that they get the #1 pick is an example of a winning outcome in your estimation?


Of course not. It's evidence of how easily you can move on from a failed draft pick if you get the wrong guy.

#54 jamesdean

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:09 PM

Bottom line is Lamar was a generational talent that transformed the game.  When you look around the league, it isn't too hard to see the impact he made and still is.  That said, you pay a player what you think he is worth at that time and how he projects into the future. If we've already seen the ceiling on Lamar's powers and we're witnessing the beginning of an eventual decline, then hell no, you can't pay him Mahomes money.  But how do you know that right now?  It's absurd to try and predict what shape his game is going to be like this time next year.  Or even later in this year.  Hell, he could take a couple of weeks off, clear his head, come back and perform like its 2019 again.  Or he could continue to regress and stink up the field.  It makes for some interesting conversation but it's completely ridiculous. 



#55 85Knight

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:17 PM

I don't think that's true at all among reasonable people. I like Huntley, but he's being graded on a curve (rightfully so). In a 2 point loss he had one fumble for 7 points and another fumble that took at least 3 off the board. In the last five minutes he missed at least two wide open passes where Brown was behind the defense. Threw a pick on the 2 point attempt. Lamar would have been skewered if he did all that, everyone would have been talking about how he lost us the game.

Lamar sucks right now, no doubt. But the Colts game wasn't years ago, he was being talked about as the MVP merely two months ago. Pat Mahomes was 26-49 with 2 picks in the Super Bowl. Nobody is any good with a terrible OL. I firmly believe if you fix the line you fix Lamar. I hope that's the prime focus of the draft and offseason.


Not true at all and I have been one of biggest Lamar supporters out there even on this board. I don't remember all of the stats but if anybody listened to The Fan today Huntley's numbers are crushing Lamar's. In fact Lamar is the lowest rated qb in the 1st half in the league. We all want MVP Lamar back because that makes the Ravens Super Bowl contenders but right now he's in a funk and we need a couple of wins to get into the playoffs. Hopefully he comes back and beats the Packers and all's well again but this last 5 weeks have been brutal to watch.

#56 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:18 PM

Again, are you forced to give them mega deals?

Here's another question.

How many QB mega deals have actually worked out?

 

You're forced to give them a megadeal or they go away.  So you're left with the same choice again.

 

Of the top paid QBs I'd say most of the deals work out well enough.  That doesn't mean their teams win a Super Bowl, that's a bad litmus test for success, but they were usually on competitive teams and had a shot.  Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Wilson, Romo, E. Manning, Flacco, Ryan, Newton.  Most of those worked out just fine.  Flacco and Eli probably the worst.  More recent deals like Mahomes, Allen, Prescott seem like wins but I'll let you argue are too early to call (Watson a disaster but for non-football reasons).  Wentz, Goff, Garopolo, Cousins are deals I'd rather not have on my books.  The others I'd probably take rather than go with the unknown.


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#57 makoman

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 09:39 PM

Not true at all and I have been one of biggest Lamar supporters out there even on this board. I don't remember all of the stats but if anybody listened to The Fan today Huntley's numbers are crushing Lamar's. In fact Lamar is the lowest rated qb in the 1st half in the league. We all want MVP Lamar back because that makes the Ravens Super Bowl contenders but right now he's in a funk and we need a couple of wins to get into the playoffs. Hopefully he comes back and beats the Packers and all's well again but this last 5 weeks have been brutal to watch.

What numbers are Huntley crushing Lamar? Huntley has a 83.8 rating and a 42 QBR. Lamar has 87 and 49.8. Neither is very good, but how is Huntley better?

 

Lamar this year is 72.5 in the first half and 99.6 in the second half. (Huntley is 86/82 btw). Yeah that first half sucks, that second half is above average. I'd rather be better in the second half. Either way I don't think anyone thinks Lamar has been great so far...but if you think Huntley is better, well he hasn't been that great either.



#58 Ravens2006

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 10:38 PM

For accuracy, Lamar is the lowest rated QB in the first half of games since week 7 (or something like that). Not the whole season. At least that's what I recall LaCanfora saying.

Lamar's issue is mostly the INTs. He's thrown too many so far. Some are rushed, some are forced in to coverage. I suspect the primary cause is the constant and quick pressure the line gives up on drop backs. He's not settled and poised like he once was. While watching the Rams / Cards game tonight, remember how insanely accurate and on time he was with the ball at the Rams a couple years ago. That was a clinic in efficiency, looking off safeties, hitting moving targets in stride, etc. And they had a better OL and running game that night.

Huntley did well all things considered. Happy that he's the second option. But if I recall he took four (?) sacks too, lost the ball twice resulting in a swing of at least 10 or maybe 14 points. Also had the throw away that was SO FAR over everyone that they called intentional grounding (which is like another sack). Again, really not trying to slam the guy in any way, but some perspective is needed I think.
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#59 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 December 2021 - 08:34 AM

Teams arent gameplanning for Huntley. And while they have some similar traits they are different. Why do you think Harbaugh is playing who starts close to his vest. Ill say it again, anyone who thinks there is a debate as to who should start if healthy is crazy
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#60 bmore_ken

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Posted 14 December 2021 - 08:59 AM

Teams arent gameplanning for Huntley. And while they have some similar traits they are different. Why do you think Harbaugh is playing who starts close to his vest. Ill say it again, anyone who thinks there is a debate as to who should start if healthy is crazy

There's really no debate about that. Huntley is a decent qb, but even on a healthy Lamar's worst day he's simply not a better qb and doesn't give you the best chance to win a game. Now if we can just the stupid OC to pay attention to the running game. 






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