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#21 makoman

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 03:07 PM

Pay him and pray. 

 

I can't think of a scenario where some college QB today or any other QB that would be available would be more trustworthy and deserving of it. There is significant risk, he's not a complete QB. It's a team game, and I'm betting his issues this year have a lot more to do with the team around him than himself. 

 

To be clear, I'm scared like hell, but you have to do it and he deserves it. I had more of a knot in my stomach when we gave Flacco his deal, even though he had just won a SB. I knew deep down that was a high water mark by far, and he was far more average. With Lamar, I have a LOT of confidence that he'll be just fine. 

 

My fear really comes from the way the salary cap works in the NFL, and how paying one person that much can really impact things. But that isn't on Lamar, that's a league wide NFL salary cap thing. Every team worry's about that. If you pay two high end defensive players big deals in one off-season, they have to hit too. Sometimes they don't, you see it all the time all over the league. 

I agree with you. I was happy as hell to pay Flacco but pretty much knew he wasn't ever going to be in the MVP race and mostly wouldn't be in the pro bowl discussion (still surprised he never went to one). But you see teams fail to find a QB time and time again so you just hold on tight when you get one, cause if you don't have one you have no chance. If you happen to find one whose ceiling is best player in the league and has reached that ceiling, how can you let that go? You only do if you think he's no longer capable of that, and I simply don't. It's definitely scary and risky though, because if you're wrong you're simply wasting several years, just like Stanley, Peters, and Thomas count 30M against the cap for nothing this year.

 

Flacco's contract after the first year (which is often low) was anywhere from 10-15% of the cap. Allen's is more like 15-20% (An aside, I haven't watched any Bills games this year but Allen is a whole lot worse than he was last year). Lamar next year will be at 11% so we'll start to see the effect of that in team building. But I would pay him, because I think the main issues are temporary and fixable and the ceiling is still best player in the league. Like you said, pay and pray.


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#22 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 04:45 PM

The downside of not paying Lamar is far higher than the downside of paying him, IMO.  Even with how bad he's played lately, I think I know how good he is overall.  If he lets you go year-to-year, you let him do that, but if he makes you pay him, you pay him.  If it turns into a mistake, it won't be a huge one as you should still be passable if not good in those years and you can get out of it after a few years if you have to.  Finding a decent new QB probably takes longer and your team may fall below even that passable threshold as you search for one.  Sure, there is a shot you hit another home run right away, but those are long odds, IMO.

 

Letting him walk is insane.  Anyone who would do that over sign him is just flat out being emotional to the point of having a stupid opinion.  Trading him for three 1st round picks rather than extend him at least is a conversation with some merit on both sides.  Even considering the possible trade return, I still easily think that the downside of moving on from him outweighs the downside of keeping him. 


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#23 Biggsy

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 04:50 PM

Would you give him a Mahomes-esque contract today?


Without hesitation. What college QB would you take on the Ravens, right now, that you would feel more confident in than Lamar ?

The only logical answer to not resigning Lamar would be going after Rodgers. Or trading for Watson or Wilson. Both of those moves cost you a ton of draft capital, to replace a 24 year old former MVP with a similar player, and similar contract. Which makes absolutely no sense. So that leaves you with Rodgers. Who is obviously a better passer than Lamar. But you get a year or two out of him, and then you're back to the draft for another lottery ticket on a QB. And if we're going to bang Lamar for his short comings in the playoffs, it has to be mentioned with Rodgers as well.

So, with all of that said, what's your plan to replace Lamar by letting him walk?
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#24 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:06 PM

Without hesitation. What college QB would you take on the Ravens, right now, that you would feel more confident in than Lamar ?

The only logical answer to not resigning Lamar would be going after Rodgers. Or trading for Watson or Wilson. Both of those moves cost you a ton of draft capital, to replace a 24 year old former MVP with a similar player, and similar contract. Which makes absolutely no sense. So that leaves you with Rodgers. Who is obviously a better passer than Lamar. But you get a year or two out of him, and then you're back to the draft for another lottery ticket on a QB. And if we're going to bang Lamar for his short comings in the playoffs, it has to be mentioned with Rodgers as well.

So, with all of that said, what's your plan to replace Lamar by letting him walk?

The plan is to pray much harder than you pray if you give Lamar a huge deal

#25 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:14 PM

Without hesitation. What college QB would you take on the Ravens, right now, that you would feel more confident in than Lamar ?

The only logical answer to not resigning Lamar would be going after Rodgers. Or trading for Watson or Wilson. Both of those moves cost you a ton of draft capital, to replace a 24 year old former MVP with a similar player, and similar contract. Which makes absolutely no sense. So that leaves you with Rodgers. Who is obviously a better passer than Lamar. But you get a year or two out of him, and then you're back to the draft for another lottery ticket on a QB. And if we're going to bang Lamar for his short comings in the playoffs, it has to be mentioned with Rodgers as well.

So, with all of that said, what's your plan to replace Lamar by letting him walk?

So, I think you're being completely overly dramatic regarding how hard it is to find a good college QB with the right research and a suitably high draft pick. Look around the NFL. How many good starting quarterbacks were drafted within the last 5 years? There are stars (or future stars) at quarterback seemingly every year that can be had in the first round, and I actually don't think that replacing Lamar would be all that difficult if they committed to tanking a season to do it (particularly if 2021 Lamar is who Lamar is). I would try to trade him if he weren't willing to play his 5th year, and the draft haul I received would make rebuilding significantly easier.

That isn't to say that Lamar is not a good quarterback, and isn't worthy of an extension. Rather, it's me wondering aloud whether he's worth highest-paid-quarterback-in-the-NFL-money. When you sign a quarterback to a mega-deal like Lamar will need, he essentially has to be able to carry the entire offensive side of the ball on his own, with help only coming through the draft. His cap hit will make free agent acquisitions rare, and when they happen, they are unlikely to be stars. Can he do that? I'm honestly not sure. If you had asked me before this season, I would have said yes without hesitation, but he has continued to get worse as the year has gone on, and the offense has made no adjustments to the blitz happy approach that defenses are taking. I am deeply, deeply concerned by how poorly he handles the blitz.

You're not just trading Lamar for a college quarterback. You are trading Lamar and his $45 million dollar a year salary for a college quarterback and enough money to make improvements at every position you need. Which team turns out better? I'm not sure.

I'm not "out" on extending Lamar, but if he came to the negotiating table after the season, on the back of leading the NFL in turnovers and playing the worst football of his career, and demanded a record breaking contract or he wouldn't play, I'd thank him for his contributions and plan for life without him.

#26 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:25 PM

The downside of not paying Lamar is far higher than the downside of paying him, IMO. Even with how bad he's played lately, I think I know how good he is overall. If he lets you go year-to-year, you let him do that, but if he makes you pay him, you pay him. If it turns into a mistake, it won't be a huge one as you should still be passable if not good in those years and you can get out of it after a few years if you have to. Finding a decent new QB probably takes longer and your team may fall below even that passable threshold as you search for one. Sure, there is a shot you hit another home run right away, but those are long odds, IMO.

Letting him walk is insane. Anyone who would do that over sign him is just flat out being emotional to the point of having a stupid opinion. Trading him for three 1st round picks rather than extend him at least is a conversation with some merit on both sides. Even considering the possible trade return, I still easily think that the downside of moving on from him outweighs the downside of keeping him.

Allen
Herbert
Burrow
Murray
Lawrence
Tua
Mac Jones
Lance
Hurts

9 QBs I feel good about have been taken in the last 3 years. Maybe some don't pan out. Maybe other guys (Love, Fields, etc.) do. The point is that getting a decent QB isn't that hard for a team that does their homework. Is it hard to find transcendent superstars? Of course, but you don't need one to win a SB, and you better be damned sure Lamar is good enough to carry the team every year without help for the next 8 years before devoting franchise-crippling money to him.

#27 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:28 PM

Pay him and pray.

I can't think of a scenario where some college QB today or any other QB that would be available would be more trustworthy and deserving of it. There is significant risk, he's not a complete QB. It's a team game, and I'm betting his issues this year have a lot more to do with the team around him than himself.

To be clear, I'm scared like hell, but you have to do it and he deserves it. I had more of a knot in my stomach when we gave Flacco his deal, even though he had just won a SB. I knew deep down that was a high water mark by far, and he was far more average. With Lamar, I have a LOT of confidence that he'll be just fine.

My fear really comes from the way the salary cap works in the NFL, and how paying one person that much can really impact things. But that isn't on Lamar, that's a league wide NFL salary cap thing. Every team worry's about that. If you pay two high end defensive players big deals in one off-season, they have to hit too. Sometimes they don't, you see it all the time all over the league.

Why do you "have to?"

Does nobody else in college know how to play QB? Will none of them pan out? Is Lamar our last chance?

There is a good argument to do it, but it isn't the only viable path to a superbowl. Pretending it is is giving Lamar too much credit.

#28 makoman

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:42 PM

No one thinks it’s the only viable path to a Super Bowl. If you trade him for 3 or 4 firsts and hit on QB with one of those that’s a viable path. The problem is the second part is IMO harder than you’re saying it is. It’s risky. Paying Lamar $40M/year is risky too. People just think that’s less risky.

#29 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 05:53 PM

Allen
Herbert
Burrow
Murray
Lawrence
Tua
Mac Jones
Lance
Hurts

9 QBs I feel good about have been taken in the last 3 years. Maybe some don't pan out. Maybe other guys (Love, Fields, etc.) do. The point is that getting a decent QB isn't that hard for a team that does their homework. Is it hard to find transcendent superstars? Of course, but you don't need one to win a SB, and you better be damned sure Lamar is good enough to carry the team every year without help for the next 8 years before devoting franchise-crippling money to him.

 

Same four drafts...

 

Mayfield

Darnold

Rosen

Jones

Haskins

Lock

Love

Wilson

 

It's only looks easy if all you're looking for are the successes.  Not even sure some of your successes are really successes anyways.  Tua, Lance, Hurts and even Lawrence.  I'd rather have Lamar than those guys and a bunch of cap space right now.


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#30 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:22 PM

The downside of not paying Lamar is far higher than the downside of paying him, IMO.  Even with how bad he's played lately, I think I know how good he is overall.  If he lets you go year-to-year, you let him do that, but if he makes you pay him, you pay him.  If it turns into a mistake, it won't be a huge one as you should still be passable if not good in those years and you can get out of it after a few years if you have to.  Finding a decent new QB probably takes longer and your team may fall below even that passable threshold as you search for one.  Sure, there is a shot you hit another home run right away, but those are long odds, IMO.

 

Letting him walk is insane.  Anyone who would do that over sign him is just flat out being emotional to the point of having a stupid opinion.  Trading him for three 1st round picks rather than extend him at least is a conversation with some merit on both sides.  Even considering the possible trade return, I still easily think that the downside of moving on from him outweighs the downside of keeping him. 

Agree 100%. I'm pretty sure EDC isn't listening to the fan chatter because the guy is a having a rough stretch of games with a horrible O line and sub par running backs who I might add aren't even being utilized to try and make something happen. I'll be shocked if he isn't resigned. I personally don't want to go back to the Kyle Boller Anthonhy Wright Stoney Case days. 



#31 jamesdean

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:36 PM

I agree a lot with this. But I've always been a big run game proponent. Our OL is NOT particularly fast on their feet, but they are BIG on their feet. Would kill to see more effort to maybe "be boring" early and work on pounding the DL. Then try to hit the play action roll outs and deep shots. Yesterday Freeman was running well and hard all game, but he had all of five carries in the first half.

That's been my sentiment too and for whatever reason, Roman just hasn't committed to the run over the past month or so.  Maybe he feels the OL isn't capable, the running backs are useless or he just fell in love with the Lamar who lit up the Colts through the air.  And where's Ben Cleveland?  I think the run game would get a major boost with him on the line because that's what his strength is.  They need to go heavy and just pound the ball from this point on.  I know the receivers on the team don't want to hear that but if they have any chance to make it to the play-offs and beyond, I really don't see any other way.  Pass protection is so atrocious that it's almost miraculous to me that Huntley threw for over 270 yards yesterday.  



#32 makoman

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:53 PM

That's been my sentiment too and for whatever reason, Roman just hasn't committed to the run over the past month or so.  Maybe he feels the OL isn't capable, the running backs are useless or he just fell in love with the Lamar who lit up the Colts through the air.  And where's Ben Cleveland?  I think the run game would get a major boost with him on the line because that's what his strength is.  They need to go heavy and just pound the ball from this point on.  I know the receivers on the team don't want to hear that but if they have any chance to make it to the play-offs and beyond, I really don't see any other way.  Pass protection is so atrocious that it's almost miraculous to me that Huntley threw for over 270 yards yesterday.  

I don't really know enough to know, but according to those that do Powers is pretty good at run blocking and not that good at pass blocking, and Cleveland was supposed to be similar right now, so I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade at this point. Zeitler has been a solid vet so Cleveland isn't going to replace him. If the coaches think Powers and Cleveland are basically the same I'm fine staying with the more experienced guy at this point.



#33 jamesdean

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:57 PM

I don't really know enough to know, but according to those that do Powers is pretty good at run blocking and not that good at pass blocking, and Cleveland was supposed to be similar right now, so I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade at this point. Zeitler has been a solid vet so Cleveland isn't going to replace him. If the coaches think Powers and Cleveland are basically the same I'm fine staying with the more experienced guy at this point.

Why don't the move Powers to tackle?  How could he be any worse than Phillips?  Then insert Cleveland into the mix. 



#34 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:00 PM

Honestly I see this recent poor play as more of an opportunity to possibly buy low than I do as reason to shy away from signing him in general.  


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#35 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:00 PM

Same four drafts...

Mayfield
Darnold
Rosen
Jones
Haskins
Lock
Love
Wilson

It's only looks easy if all you're looking for are the successes. Not even sure some of your successes are really successes anyways. Tua, Lance, Hurts and even Lawrence. I'd rather have Lamar than those guys and a bunch of cap space right now.

So...you're saying it's about a 50% chance they get a good QB in the draft?

What do you think the chances are that Lamar is worth the money they pay?

What is a more difficult hole to dig out of if you're wrong - moving on from a rookie contract QB, or one you owe 150+ guaranteed to? They spent what...five years trying to win with a mediocre and grossly overpaid Flacco, right? How many of those years do you think the Ravens cosches/FO wished they could have moved on? Genuine question.

Again, this is not my saying that I want to move on...just me trying to illustrate that .owing on isn't nearly as difficult a road as I think it's being painted to be.

#36 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:29 PM

So...you're saying it's about a 50% chance they get a good QB in the draft?

What do you think the chances are that Lamar is worth the money they pay?

What is a more difficult hoke to dig out of if you're wrong?

 

It's been about 50% recently if you count all the questionable ones as wins (and we don't have any other later-on swaps from miss to hit or vice versa).  If I really wanted to consider it from a percentages standpoint in my evaluation I'd probably peg the likelihood of  a success as 35-40%.  Because sometimes even when they are successful, they aren't right away so how do you count for the year or two of mediocre play before finding success?  Only the good things done in the first 4 years count in your plan, as you're gonna let guys walk instead of sign them.  Because even if they aren't gonna get highest-paid-in-the-league QB money, the going rate for Kirk Cousins and Jarrod Goff level guys is now about $35M.  I'd have to think about this more, but somewhere around 50% would be absolute max end of this guess.

 

I don't know what "worth the money" means exactly, but I'm confident in giving him the contract so clearly above 50% confidence in the move or I wouldn't make it.  70% confident right now I guess?  If I think Lamar is worth $38M one season playing on a $45M contract, I doubt I'm considering that a bad investment.

 

Bigger hole to dig out of a bad 1st round QB than a bad contract, IMO.    Even the most massive of contracts will be able to be shook lose after about 3 years and then one year of cap hell with a very big but manageable dead money number.  (Allen can be cut after '24 for cap neutral with huge dead number, for example).  I also don't think that the bad contract would be as likely to lead to terrible football as a bad rookie QB would be, worst case with Lamar should be something like this season (blech) and worst case with a bad rookie QB would be 4-5 wins (depth of Ravens org should keep them from being a 0-3 win total nightmare).  Except for a year lost to injury, if Lamar gets knocked out in Week 3, that's gonna be a year with only a handful of wins at most, down into bad rookie territory.


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#37 BaltBird 24

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:33 PM

It took us how long to find Flacco after a giant string of dud QBs in the draft? And then Lamar burst onto the scene....

Not saying I'm comfortable giving Lamar $40 million per, but let's not forget how bad it could be (Boller, Redman, etc.)
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#38 Mackus

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:39 PM

Even if it's not quite that bleak, Lamar is capable of so much more than what you get from most QBs.  Several perfectly acceptable QBs aren't nearly as good as Lamar.  Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jarrod Goff, Carson Wentz.  Those guys have to be considered draft wins, but I'd much rather have Lamar than one of them and $10-20M in cap space.  If you happen to get lucky and find one of those guys, they're effectively as expensive as Lamar is after a few years.  So even if half the QBs you might draft are wins, only half of those wins would end up really being better options than Lamar.  And that's only if Lamar doesn't return to Superman.  Lamar at Superman levels is better than nearly everything else.



#39 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:44 PM

Honestly I see this recent poor play as more of an opportunity to possibly buy low than I do as reason to shy away from signing him in general.


I would absolutely buy low, but I doubt Lamar's camp is open to that.

If the price tag was 25 million a year I wouldn't have even made this thread.

#40 russsnyder

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:46 PM

The one thing that might come out of this injury riddled seadon is Lamar and his mom realizing that he needs some other pieces to be successful in the long run.

Perhaps Jackson takes a bit less to help put the team's long term cap situation? At any rate, I say sign Lamar to the long term contract. It's a risk, however, so is moving on from him. If I'm the Ravens, I'm staying with the known quantity.
<p>"F IT!, Let's hit." Ted Williams




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