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Lamar - Extension?


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#1101 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 10:48 AM

Here is what a 2-time MVP, MVP and AFC Champion, contract could look like. Thoughts?

 

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Estimated salary cap based on Over the Cap's estimation that it could rise roughly $17M a year going forward.

 

Benchmarks: 

$50.3M AAV would be highest ever. Rodgers, $50.1M AAV

$75M signing bonus would be highest ever. Prescott, $66M

$250M guaranteed, highest ever. Watson, $230M

$140M cash in hand after three years, highest ever. Watson, $138M

 

Outs:

2028, $50M dead money, $7M savings. 

2029, $25M dead money, $32M savings

2030+, $0 dead money, $57M, $60M, $62M savings

 

Lamar gets the highest, everything.

The Ravens have the option to have him up to age 35, instead of 31 like their original offer. Incase he's still a beast.  But with the outs can get out after age 31 if there is serious decline.

Lamar never accounts for more than 20% of the salary cap, even a little leeway in there incase OTCs estimation is a little off, and maybe it only goes up $13M one year, or something. But if the cap explodes now that we are post pandemic, even better for the Ravens.

You probably nailed it with $250 guaranteed.



#1102 ivanbalt

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 10:55 AM

If Bisciotti guarantees everything, that will be the new standard. And then it won't be too long before WRs start asking for the same thing. 

 

It's a tough call. If the Ravens don't go 100%, speculation is that other teams will. If true, that new standard will be in place, whether the Ravens set it, or someone else does. 


The NFL seems determined to ruin the product.

 

League changes the defense rules to encourage throwing it 50+ times a game.

It becomes very difficult to win without a good QB, so QB salaries skyrocket.

Moronic franchise gives questionable QB massive 100% deal, likely setting the new standard.



#1103 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:00 AM

If Bisciotti guarantees everything, that will be the new standard. And then it won't be too long before WRs start asking for the same thing. 

 

It's a tough call. If the Ravens don't go 100%, speculation is that other teams will. If true, that new standard will be in place, whether the Ravens set it, or someone else does. 

To be honest if they offer him BSLMIKE'S DEAL and he turns it down because it's not fully guaranteed, I'd be perfectly ok with tagging and trading him next season. The $250 guaranteed in that proposed deal exceeds Watson's guaranteed money. I'd rather someone else set the fully guaranteed new normal. 


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#1104 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:06 AM


The NFL seems determined to ruin the product.

 

League changes the defense rules to encourage throwing it 50+ times a game.

It becomes very difficult to win without a good QB, so QB salaries skyrocket.

Moronic franchise gives questionable QB massive 100% deal, likely setting the new standard.

Fans are still spending money on the product. so on the face of it, it looks like it's working for the league. To keep it real I would guess more fans would rather watch a 4000 yard passer over a 1600 yard rusher



#1105 Slidemaster

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:07 AM

To be honest if they offer him BSLMIKE'S DEAL and he turns it down because it's not fully guaranteed, I'd be perfectly ok with tagging and trading him next season. The $250 guaranteed in that proposed deal exceeds Watson's guaranteed money. I'd rather someone set the fully guaranteed new normal.


Welcome to my side of the fence.

It will be 80-90% guaranteed at minimum or it will not happen.

#1106 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:09 AM

Looks reasonable to me at a quick glance.  If you've guaranteed the $50M in '28-29 for roster bonuses, I don't think he's cuttable those years though.  It's not just the dead money but the actual cash having to be paid out to have him not play for you.  He'd have to have a devastating injury or colossally bad off-field problem for the team to give him $50M to go away.  

 

Also only accounting for the signing bonus over the first 5 years is strange.  You can carry cap forward, so its always better to space that out over the entire contract.  

So I'm not sure,but I think you can pay out that roster bonus cash at an earlier date, and it's just on the books for those future years. Mahomes contract has stipulations that his say, 2025 roster bonus is guaranteed on the third league day of 2024. His 2026 roster bonus is guaranteed on the third league day of 2025, and so on. So if the Chiefs want out, at some point, they eat one year of that guarantee.

 

$50M in dead money sucks. Lamar would really have to be a detriment to entertain it. But if that's the case you bite the bullet one year and hope it's a QB friendly draft coming up.


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#1107 Slidemaster

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:11 AM

God I hate the Browns. They ruin everything for everyone.
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#1108 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:27 AM

You probably nailed with $250 guaranteed.

If that is what it takes, I'd rather make him the 10 year deal with that built in. I don't want him taking the Ravens to task again in five years when he's still in his prime. Then the asking price is like 5/$350M guaranteed. Whereas I have him after the first 5 years basically playing for 5 more years at $293M, but only $50M guaranteed. Or 5/$243M, no guarantees, if you consider the two guaranteed roster bonuses as money he already got.

 

That's the trade off for giving him all that money up front, IMO. 


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#1109 BSLMikeFast

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:43 AM

Unless his performance drastically falls off, I think Lamar has earned a fully-guaranteed deal. 6 years, $300 million. Let's move on.


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#1110 Mike B

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:43 AM

God I hate the Browns. They ruin everything for everyone.

The definition of an idiot franchise.


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#1111 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:47 AM

God I hate the Browns. They ruin everything for everyone.

Don't hate da playa, hate da game. That's business.



#1112 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:49 AM

Unless his performance drastically falls off, I think Lamar has earned a fully-guaranteed deal. 6 years, $300 million. Let's move on.

I can't agree with that. 



#1113 Mackus

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 11:55 AM

If that is what it takes, I'd rather make him the 10 year deal with that built in. I don't want him taking the Ravens to task again in five years when he's still in his prime. Then the asking price is like 5/$350M guaranteed. Whereas I have him after the first 5 years basically playing for 5 more years at $293M, but only $50M guaranteed. Or 5/$243M, no guarantees, if you consider the two guaranteed roster bonuses as money he already got.

 

That's the trade off for giving him all that money up front, IMO. 

 

Nothing stopping him from signing your deal and then holding out after Year 5 when $50M a year is like the 10th highest paid.  So, sure, I see preferring your structure to 5/$250M full guarantee but its a fallacy to think that your deal protects you from having to go through this again. It doesn't really do that, as we've seen many times in recent history.  I would agree that there is reason to think Lamar would be less inclined to do that than others, since he never held out during his rookie deal, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't 5 years from now in a different financial landscape.


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#1114 ivanbalt

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 12:11 PM

Fans are still spending money on the product. so on the face of it, it looks like it's working for the league. To keep it real I would guess more fans would rather watch a 4000 yard passer over a 1600 yard rusher


It's the NFL so as long as they make money, nothing else really matters.

 

Tying up more and more money in a single position hasn't really translated into a SB winning formula, but I guess once most teams have a fully guaranteed anchor around their neck things could change.


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#1115 Mackus

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 02:22 PM


It's the NFL so as long as they make money, nothing else really matters.

 

Tying up more and more money in a single position hasn't really translated into a SB winning formula, but I guess once most teams have a fully guaranteed anchor around their neck things could change.

 

It was split amongst two guys, but the Rams had nearly $45M in cap space or 24.5% of the cap dedicated to the QB position last season.  So its been done

 

 

Not really responding to you specifically here, more in general, but I really dislike the idea of only looking at the teams to actually win the Super Bowl as being the models that need to be followed for building a team.  Sure, that's the ultimate goal, but any of 3-6 teams any given year are right there at the end and built for winning even if they don't win.  Were the Bills, Bengals, or Bucs not capable of winning it all last year with however their rosters were built?  I don't know how many further examples there are of teams with 20% or more of their cap spent on a QB that were Super Bowl quality, its probably kind of a moving target, but that's the type of team I want to build with the Ravens.  Be in that top group of a handful or so of teams that have a legit chance as often as possible.  I don't care about specifically emulating whichever team actually won it all.


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#1116 weird-O

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 03:09 PM


The NFL seems determined to ruin the product.

 

League changes the defense rules to encourage throwing it 50+ times a game.

It becomes very difficult to win without a good QB, so QB salaries skyrocket.

Moronic franchise gives questionable QB massive 100% deal, likely setting the new standard.

Everyone involved is richer than the term "rich" can truly define. But to your point, the league itself doesn't care if owners anchor themselves to bad deals. The league doesn't have to work around that debt and try to still compete. They just deal with counting their profits and trying to permanently get into London. 

 

I despise the NFL. But I love the game. 


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Good news! I saw a dog today.


#1117 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 04:44 PM

Nothing stopping him from signing your deal and then holding out after Year 5 when $50M a year is like the 10th highest paid. So, sure, I see preferring your structure to 5/$250M full guarantee but its a fallacy to think that your deal protects you from having to go through this again. It doesn't really do that, as we've seen many times in recent history. I would agree that there is reason to think Lamar would be less inclined to do that than others, since he never held out during his rookie deal, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't 5 years from now in a different financial landscape.


Very true. If that’s the case, so be it. But I’d hate to do this again in just 5 years or he hits free agency. If he is under contract and holds out, he can be traded if it came down to it.
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#1118 Slidemaster

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 06:36 PM

Don't hate da playa, hate da game. That's business.


Hmmmm...

Nope. I thought about it, and I'm still very comfortable hating the Browns.

#1119 hallas

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 06:41 PM


The NFL seems determined to ruin the product.

 

League changes the defense rules to encourage throwing it 50+ times a game.

It becomes very difficult to win without a good QB, so QB salaries skyrocket.

Moronic franchise gives questionable QB massive 100% deal, likely setting the new standard.

 

How would you fix it?  I think the illegal contact rule should be 7 yards from the LOS instead of 5.



#1120 bmore_ken

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Posted 28 September 2022 - 07:30 PM

Hmmmm...

Nope. I thought about it, and I'm still very comfortable hating the Browns.

I'm sure they're real concerned. 






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