269 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

I don't know exactly where I'd tap out, but I think $25M for FA years that are 4 years away should be more than adequate. If he wants $32M to sign, I'd probably do it, but I think that's unlikely. He's either gonna be willing to sign for a reasonably big deal like we're talking about or he's gonna wanna get to FA and try to max out.

I'd like to have an option or two on the back end, and would be willing to pay more during the guaranteed portion to get those option years. So maybe something like 8/$150M, with the deal starting in 2024, with two $30M options. Also would consider a more creative structure like Seattle just did with Rodriguez, where they used a mutual option to give the player more guaranteed money through the player option and have a shot at bigger overall dollars through the escalating club option side.

So I assume you'd be good with 10/200?

What if he demands more than 10 years?

[Mackus]

So I assume you'd be good with 10/200?

What if he demands more than 10 years?

 

Yeah I'm in at 10/$200M.  Would consider more years, would like to get creative with anything beyond 10 though, make it some sort of option, maybe where he can guarantee himself cash at a lower rate with a player option or the team could lock in a higher rate with a team option.

 

I'm starting everything at next year, Age 26.  So 10-years take you through Age 35.  Not really a big concern for me there, I'm pretty optimistic about 30-33 and willing to take on a risk of overpayment from ages 34+ if it helped net me his late 20s and early 30s.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

10/$200 would be the max I could get behind. I think its a fairly reasonable max for both sides.

[Mike in STL]

I don't know if I would do 10/$200M I just don't think there is enough savings there. 

 

On the high end, Guys like Sanchez and Contreras got $6.5M+ in Arb 2, and $9M+ Arb 3 years. Adley will likely beat those numbers when the time comes. $12M and $15M maybe? 

 

Realmuto getting $23M/per and is 29. Rutch oughta be around $28M/per 4 years from now. 

 

Could see Adley getting paid around $38M over the next four years if the Orioles do nothing. Then 6/$168M as a 30 y/o FA. Meaning in a 10-year span making $206M. 

 

I think for buying out some of those FA years in exchange for giving him more money now, the Orioles should be able to get away with less. Still okay with 10 years, but maybe at $180M. So he gets paid more now, but the hypothetical $10M/per you save later can be allocated elsewhere (if you believe the orioles do that, which they don't, not the point though). 

 

$18M/per oughta beat what he would get each Arb year, and is a $17M+ raise on what he'll earn in 2024. 

[Mackus]

I don't know if I would do 10/$200M I just don't think there is enough savings there. 

 

On the high end, Guys like Sanchez and Contreras got $6.5M+ in Arb 2, and $9M+ Arb 3 years. Adley will likely beat those numbers when the time comes. $12M and $15M maybe? 

 

Realmuto getting $23M/per and is 29. Rutch oughta be around $28M/per 4 years from now. 

 

Could see Adley getting paid around $38M over the next four years if the Orioles do nothing. Then 6/$168M as a 30 y/o FA. Meaning in a 10-year span making $206M. 

 

I think for buying out some of those FA years in exchange for giving him more money now, the Orioles should be able to get away with less. Still okay with 10 years, but maybe at $180M. So he gets paid more now, but the hypothetical $10M/per you save later can be allocated elsewhere (if you believe the orioles do that, which they don't, not the point though). 

 

$18M/per oughta beat what he would get each Arb year, and is a $17M+ raise on what he'll earn in 2024. 

 

I think you're right that it shouldn't take 10/$200M.  But if it comes down to being right and winning the negotiation or having Adley, I'll go ahead and have him rather than try to find something else worth spending the money on.

 

I think you're low on the arb amounts, though.  Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1.  Soto got $17M for Year 1 and $23M for Year 2.  Ohtani got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M a few years back.  I've been assuming $50M for the 3 years, mainly just because its a nice round number.  Maybe its only $40M.  Maybe its $60M.  I'd be pretty surprised if its not in that ballpark.  I don't think recent top catchers are gonna be his comps, recent perennial All-Stars are gonna be his comps.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I do think a deal gets done...  

 

I think he gets more then the $210M Julio Rodriguez got guaranteed. 

 

I'm thinking 12 years $300 - $360M.

[Mike in STL]

I think you're right that it shouldn't take 10/$200M.  But if it comes down to being right and winning the negotiation or having Adley, I'll go ahead and have him rather than try to find something else worth spending the money on.

 

I think you're low on the arb amounts, though.  Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1.  Soto got $17M for Year 1 and $23M for Year 2.  Ohtani got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M a few years back.  I've been assuming $50M for the 3 years, mainly just because its a nice round number.  Maybe its only $40M.  Maybe its $60M.  I'd be pretty surprised if its not in that ballpark.  I don't think recent top catchers are gonna be his comps, recent perennial All-Stars are gonna be his comps.

True. I'm not going to quibble if the Orioles lock him in for a higher number. It's not my money. 

[Mackus]

I do think a deal gets done...

I think he gets more then the $210M Julio Rodriguez got guaranteed.

I'm thinking 12 years $300 - $360M.

Rodriguez' deal doesn't really bode itself well to a simple explanation like $210M guaranteed.

It's a 7/$120M deal that cover 2 pre-arb years, 3 arb years, and 2 FA years. That's a bigger per-year FA average than we've been talking about for Adley (1 pre-arb, 3 arb, and # FA years), but the options on the back end represent a big chunk of value. Seattle has a team option that would be anywhere from 8/$200M to 10/$350M depending on a bunch of escalator combinations. If that is declined, then Rodriguez has a player option for somewhere for 5/$90M with escalators taking it up to 5/$125M (escalators likely unnecessary, as if he htis those escalators, Seattle is gonna pick up their end).

I love that type of structure for Adley, though wouldn't be building it around a 12-year framework. But something that gives the player big guarantees while also giving the team value that wouldn't be undercut by an opt out is really enticing. Its very fair to both sides, committing a huge amount but in doing so the team will get excess value if the player reaches his peak and the player gets protection in case he falls short.

[Mackus]

True. I'm not going to quibble if the Orioles lock him in for a higher number. It's not my money. 

 

At some point, even not my money I'd end up saying no.  I just feel like the decision hinges far more on Adley being interested versus Adley being completely uninterested.  If he values security and is willing to extend, I'm certain that a deal that I'd agree to could be figured out.  If he is prioritizing maxing out and really wants to become a free agent at some point, then I doubt even the silliest number I might be willing to throw at him changes his mind on that one.

 

I doubt there is a scenario where he earnestly wants to seek a contract extension but is simply asking for more than I'd be willing to go to.  I definitely wouldn't ever let the two sides walk away after getting to being only $5M apart like the O's reportedly were with Manny.  If Rutschman is willing to talk, I'm signing him.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Rodriguez' deal doesn't really bode itself well to a simple explanation like $210M guaranteed.

It's a 7/$120M deal that cover 2 pre-arb years, 3 arb years, and 2 FA years. That's a bigger per-year FA average than we've been talking about for Adley (1 pre-arb, 3 arb, and # FA years), but the options on the back end represent a big chunk of value. Seattle has a team option that would be anywhere from 8/$200M to 10/$350M depending on a bunch of escalator combinations. If that is declined, then Rodriguez has a player option for somewhere for 5/$90M with escalators taking it up to 5/$125M (escalators likely unnecessary, as if he htis those escalators, Seattle is gonna pick up their end).

I love that type of structure for Adley, though wouldn't be building it around a 12-year framework. But something that gives the player big guarantees while also giving the team value that wouldn't be undercut by an opt out is really enticing. Its very fair to both sides, committing a huge amount but in doing so the team will get excess value if the player reaches his peak and the player gets protection in case he falls short.

I guess we will see what Adley values most.   

I do tend to think if a deal is going to get done, that 12 years seems more likely to me vs. 8-10. 
 

Something where he's getting enough guaranteed where he's not worried about reentering FA at age 33, and playing for that next contract.

 

Something that takes him through age 37, where when he signs, it will feel like a lifetime deal. 

[Mackus]

I guess we will see what Adley values most.   

I do tend to think if a deal is going to get done, that 12 years seems more likely to me vs. 8-10. 
 

Something where he's getting enough guaranteed where he's not worried about reentering FA at age 33, and playing for that next contract.

 

Something that takes him through age 37, where when he signs, it will feel like a lifetime deal. 

 

Makes sense.  Maybe that's the big option at that point if they do something creative like that.  7-year deal that takes him through 32, then either a 4-5 year player option at a lower rate (to give Rutschman security) or a team option for 5-6 years at a higher rate (to give the team another shot at securing excess value).

[Mike in STL]

At some point, even not my money I'd end up saying no.  I just feel like the decision hinges far more on Adley being interested versus Adley being completely uninterested.  If he values security and is willing to extend, I'm certain that a deal that I'd agree to could be figured out.  If he is prioritizing maxing out and really wants to become a free agent at some point, then I doubt even the silliest number I might be willing to throw at him changes his mind on that one.

 

I doubt there is a scenario where he earnestly wants to seek a contract extension but is simply asking for more than I'd be willing to go to.  I definitely wouldn't ever let the two sides walk away after getting to being only $5M apart like the O's reportedly were with Manny.  If Rutschman is willing to talk, I'm signing him.  

Agreed. If it hinders your ability to do other things then that is a problem, like in a salary cap sport. I'm way more critical of giving OBJ $15M than I would be if I thought the Orioles overpaid Rutschman by $20M. Mets fans shouldn't be upset that their owner blew way over the Luxury tax threshold. Not their money, and he's obviously comfortable doing so. In today's ownership landscape, the Orioles aren't hamstrung or can't cry small market when they benefit from revenue sharing. They cry poor, but no one is anymore. These aren't the days of owners needing to produce sideshows for extra revenue, or having to take out a loan to sign a star player. Recent TV deals have teams getting $100M a year before a single ticket is sold. 

[dude]

I do tend to think if a deal is going to get done, that 12 years seems more likely to me vs. 8-10. 
 

Something where he's getting enough guaranteed where he's not worried about reentering FA at age 33, and playing for that next contract.

 

I agree with this.

 

I think the Team would sign up for 10/200, but I don't think Adley/agent would for the reasons Chris wrote above.  He doesn't want to be heading back onto the market at 36. 

 

I think this is generally true for all of the 8-10 discussions, it's just not good timing if your agent is remotely on his game wrt career earnings.

 

So if you want my "max contract" in terms of just one-deal, raw years and dollars, my contract would be 12/250. That's the 4/50 in year 1-4 and 25M per for the next 8 years. That would NOT be my preferred contract structure, but that would be my one-deal number. 

 

If Adley isn't interested in that (again, I think I can do better with a different structure) I'm not going 10/300 or 12/300-360.  I tend to agree with Mackus' point,, if Adley wants to make a deal, there'll be a deal to make and it won't be one of the extreme, need every last dollar type thing. 

[dude]

So I'll write out some of the details of what I've generically described.  I've updated it one more time (just for fun) and I don't know how Adley could say no, IF he was interested in staying.

 

Short version: 10/175 with an opt out after 7 and a 7/185M Team option.  If the Orioles exercise the option it's 14/310M

-----

 

Longer version:

Starts in 2024. 

First 4 years: 1/8.5/12.5/18 plus a 10M s/b

Next 3 years 25M/yr

Next 3 years 10M/year, player opt out

20M b/o of team option.

 

That's 10/175M. if he exercises the buyout, it's 7/145M and he's a FA for age-33 season

 

The team option must be exercised after year 4.  If you buy it out, then he gets the 20M then.  If the team exercises the option, it takes the place of the last 3 years of the first contract and it's a 20M s/b (paid after year 7), 5 years @ 25M/year and the last 2 years @ 20M/year

 

That's 7/185.

 

The fully executed deal is 14/310M.  The Orioles are protected against a challenging down turn.  AR is guaranteed 175M, but he can bail after 7/145 if the Orioles don't pick up the team option and he likes his market options.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I didnt know where to put this thought. Figure this is the best place as we talk about extensions here. I was looking over the Cubs accention to WS champs theor roster and relatively quick decline. Not really that quick I guess. They made the playoffs I believe 4 years in a row and 5 of 6 with 3 NLCS appearances. It just was interesting to me that a big market team like that that could have wrapped up guys early only ended up ever extending one of their young core guys from that run. Rizzo. Baez, Schwarber, Bryant, Wilson Contreras all were eventually traded and or hit FA when they were eligible. And at this point you wouldnt want any of them outside of maybe Schwarber. The point here being that its ok to let these guys play and then walk or trade them if, like the Cubs, you decide the run is over and sell. Stoner is right that there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Saying all that I still prefer lock up Adley in particular but Im not over the moon on extensions in general. The biggest thing is for ownership and the FO to supplement and do everything they can over the next 3-5 years to make thos a WS champ. That starts at this deadline.

[Mackus]

Disagree pretty strongly.  I'd be over the moon for extensions.  You'll get more value out of one deal that works out for you than you're likely to lose on 3 or 4 that don't.  Typically I'd assume the odds of them working out are pretty strong.  If you don't extend, you are forced to either lose guys for nothing, trade them for prospects before their control is done when you're still trying to win, or to sign them as free agents for full freight where there is not a strong chance of finding any excess value.

 

For a superstar like Adley, you're not getting a ton of savings but the ability to simply have the player beyond their control is the massive benefit.  For the next tier down of players like everyone else, you're typically getting significant savings and the downside of a deal that doesn't work out is minor and often mitigatable.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Rizzo had a 130 OPS+ as a Cub and now has a 127 OPS+ as a Yankee and the Cubs were trying so hard to find a competent 1B this year they gave Eric Hosmer a deal so extending him couldn't have hurt 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean its clear why they traded Rizzo when they did. You point out the one extension they actually made as your point?? I said you wouldnt want the guys they passed on. Rizzo hit FA anyway.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Disagree pretty strongly. I'd be over the moon for extensions. You'll get more value out of one deal that works out for you than you're likely to lose on 3 or 4 that don't. Typically I'd assume the odds of them working out are pretty strong. If you don't extend, you are forced to either lose guys for nothing, trade them for prospects before their control is done when you're still trying to win, or to sign them as free agents for full freight where there is not a strong chance of finding any excess value.

For a superstar like Adley, you're not getting a ton of savings but the ability to simply have the player beyond their control is the massive benefit. For the next tier down of players like everyone else, you're typically getting significant savings and the downside of a deal that doesn't work out is minor and often mitigatable.

I mean Ive gone through why Adley is a different beast for me. He is the man. I welcome that extension. Hes really the only one for me though. Of the young core. Id welcome an extension on Ced at the right number. Those are the only 2 I entertain right now. Part of it is evaluation and future projection. Maybe the Cubs just didnt like Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, Bryant as extension nominees. If that was true its kinda looking like they were right. Still to be determined on a lot of the young guys who are likely to be core players here. Gunnar, GRod, Cowser, Holliday. Ill be surprised if any of those 4 are traded so Im calling them part of the core. We already know we dont want to extend the closer to arb guys IMO. No to all of Hays, Santander, Mountcastle. Nor am I considering any pitcher we have since there is so much team control left. Gunnar we got a bit of time but for me hes already a no. Hes young which is to his benefit for sure but I just dont see a special talent. I see a guy you dont want to pay at 32 33 34

[BaltBird 24]

Rizzo had a 130 OPS+ as a Cub and now has a 127 OPS+ as a Yankee and the Cubs were trying so hard to find a competent 1B this year they gave Eric Hosmer a deal so extending him couldn't have hurt

Yeah, don't understand that post. Surely Rizzo has been a quality player since being traded to NY.

Contreras was very good up until this year with STL. Still only 2 months into the season, too early to judge that one.

Bryant hasn't been healthy since leaving Chicago, but did have an OPS+ of 126 last year.