I don’t know exactly what he stands to get in his 3 years of arbitration, but I’d think he’d end up having to make north of $40M in each of his first two free agency seasons to top a 6-year/$100m deal that starts in 2024. I’d think hard about taking that if I were him. For reference, the highest paid catcher this year (Realmuto) is making $23.8M.
The biggest arbitration awards are now in the $25-30M range. Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1. Soto just got $23M for Year 2 after $17M for Year 1. Ohtani just got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M for Year 3 back in 2020. Machado was $5M, $11.5M, $16M approaching a decade ago, for an Orioles example.
I think starting with the 2025 season, with a couple more years of rising tides, its entirely possible that Adley gets something like $15M, $25M, $35M. A low-end estimate if he doesn't quite become otherworldly, would be more like $10M, $15M, $20M.
I think he will certainly get more than the $20M total you seem to be assuming by saying he'd need 2/$80M for the FA years to better this 6/$100M deal starting in 2024. No chance he accepts that at this point, IMO. I think you gotta lock him in to at least $60M over his arb years to get him to sign, and then probably at least $35M+ a year for any FA years. 6/$130M starting next season as a starting point? 8/$200M if you go longer?