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BSL: “It is the first step that costs”: Extending Adley Rutschman


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#21 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 16 April 2023 - 08:24 PM

Yup. Zero interest in the team's success. Zero interest in what it means to the city. He runs it like a business and nothing else.

 

Except he doesn't even have to run it like a real business, since he has the league's antitrust exemption and MLB gifted his father the TV rights to a second team. With all that, he can simply run it like his own ATM. (and obviously does)



#22 dude

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Posted 16 April 2023 - 10:56 PM

Except he doesn't even have to run it like a real business, since he has the league's antitrust exemption and MLB gifted his father the TV rights to a second team. With all that, he can simply run it like his own ATM. (and obviously does)

 

You guys keep trying to make it about money.  Money isn't the priority.  Money is just the tool he needs to keep the team to serve his ego.  All of this is about John Angelos maintaining control of the Orioles and pedestalling a personal profile he can't earn on his own merit.

 

They have all the money they could spend.  It's about being important and they need the money, short term, to be important.  

 

I have every confidence John will spend according to his own desires if they get on the other side of the one gate.  Until then, they need money to try and keep MLB off them.



#23 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 18 April 2023 - 05:57 PM

That wealth of financial resources that the Reds have in the massive Cincinnati market sure must be nice.

 

ESPN: Hunter Greene, Reds agree on 6-year, $53M extension


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#24 BaltBird 24

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Posted 18 April 2023 - 09:27 PM

That wealth of financial resources that the Reds have in the massive Cincinnati market sure must be nice.

ESPN: Hunter Greene, Reds agree on 6-year, $53M extension


Adley ain't signing for double that.

#25 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 18 April 2023 - 11:06 PM

Adley ain't signing for double that.


I don’t know exactly what he stands to get in his 3 years of arbitration, but I’d think he’d end up having to make north of $40M in each of his first two free agency seasons to top a 6-year/$100m deal that starts in 2024. I’d think hard about taking that if I were him. For reference, the highest paid catcher this year (Realmuto) is making $23.8M.



#26 Mike B

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 10:03 AM

Adley ain't signing for double that.

I think an Adley extension would be somewhere around 8/155 to 160 M.

I think he is represented by Boras which means there will not be any bargains.

 

Maybe he can get Lamar to help the negotiations. 


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#27 Mackus

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 10:18 AM


I don’t know exactly what he stands to get in his 3 years of arbitration, but I’d think he’d end up having to make north of $40M in each of his first two free agency seasons to top a 6-year/$100m deal that starts in 2024. I’d think hard about taking that if I were him. For reference, the highest paid catcher this year (Realmuto) is making $23.8M.

 

The biggest arbitration awards are now in the $25-30M range.  Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1.  Soto just got $23M for Year 2 after $17M for Year 1. Ohtani just got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M for Year 3 back in 2020.  Machado was $5M, $11.5M, $16M approaching a decade ago, for an Orioles example.

 

I think starting with the 2025 season, with a couple more years of rising tides, its entirely possible that Adley gets something like $15M, $25M, $35M.  A low-end estimate if he doesn't quite become otherworldly, would be more like $10M, $15M, $20M.  

 

I think he will certainly get more than the $20M total you seem to be assuming by saying he'd need 2/$80M for the FA years to better this 6/$100M deal starting in 2024.  No chance he accepts that at this point, IMO.  I think you gotta lock him in to at least $60M over his arb years to get him to sign, and then probably at least $35M+ a year for any FA years.  6/$130M starting next season as a starting point?  8/$200M if you go longer?



#28 Mackus

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 10:23 AM

I think an Adley extension would be somewhere around 8/155 to 160 M.

I think he is represented by Boras which means there will not be any bargains.

 

Maybe he can get Lamar to help the negotiations. 

 

I think you're still a little low. 

 

He's represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council, or at least he was when drafted, not Boras.  Gunnar is a Boras guy unless he's switched recently.



#29 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 02:22 PM

The biggest arbitration awards are now in the $25-30M range.  Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1.  Soto just got $23M for Year 2 after $17M for Year 1. Ohtani just got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M for Year 3 back in 2020.  Machado was $5M, $11.5M, $16M approaching a decade ago, for an Orioles example.

 

I think starting with the 2025 season, with a couple more years of rising tides, its entirely possible that Adley gets something like $15M, $25M, $35M.  A low-end estimate if he doesn't quite become otherworldly, would be more like $10M, $15M, $20M.  

 

I think he will certainly get more than the $20M total you seem to be assuming by saying he'd need 2/$80M for the FA years to better this 6/$100M deal starting in 2024.  No chance he accepts that at this point, IMO.  I think you gotta lock him in to at least $60M over his arb years to get him to sign, and then probably at least $35M+ a year for any FA years.  6/$130M starting next season as a starting point?  8/$200M if you go longer?

 

I don't follow arbitration beyond the Orioles, so had no idea players were getting that much these days. Probably sinks my theory. Frankly, it's a moot point anyway. John Angelos will never commit to a 9-figure salary for anyone (except maybe himself).



#30 Mike B

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 02:33 PM

I think you're still a little low. 

 

He's represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council, or at least he was when drafted, not Boras.  Gunnar is a Boras guy unless he's switched recently.

Maybe so, but I think it is close.  Your right, Boras is or was Gunnar's guy.


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#31 dude

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 06:21 PM

The biggest arbitration awards are now in the $25-30M range.  Vlad Jr just got $14.5M for Year 1.  Soto just got $23M for Year 2 after $17M for Year 1. Ohtani just got $30M for Year 3, Betts got $27M for Year 3 back in 2020.  Machado was $5M, $11.5M, $16M approaching a decade ago, for an Orioles example.

 

I think starting with the 2025 season, with a couple more years of rising tides, its entirely possible that Adley gets something like $15M, $25M, $35M.  A low-end estimate if he doesn't quite become otherworldly, would be more like $10M, $15M, $20M. 

 

I think the issue with this assessment is that you can't really use current one-year performance arbitration (ie the money you get going year to year) as the same as the guarantee you get by locking up those years.....because you have a bunch of guys that have gone into/through arbitration that aren't getting anything near those numbers despite their projectability during team control years due to injury or performance concerns.

 

Matt Wieters is an easy example of things not turning out like you were hoping. Mike Soroka certainly had a bigger profile after a huge year, tore his achilles and is still struggling to get back to quality.  If Tatis Jr wasn't locked into his deal....would the last 2 years impact what he would be getting in a year-to-year arbitration award?

 

Then there's the recent example of John Means.  Let's go look at the crazy comments people were making about locking him up after the perfect game no-hitter.  Little injury, some soft performance and then TJS and his earnings profile is WAY off what it could have been if he's locked into something when his stock was hot.



#32 dude

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 06:26 PM

I'm not suggesting Adley give up something crazy.  Players can do whatever they want and I'd say we've seen some guys really under-value themselves in some early deals....but those guarantees are still guaranteed.

 

The numbers are certainly more significant than they would have been 2+ years ago, and given the full service year in 2022, he's in a stronger position to leverage his deal....but it's really hard to guarantee 300M to a catcher into his late 30s.

 

MW settled out at 61+M and in his mid-30s, he's at the house.  



#33 Mackus

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Posted 19 April 2023 - 08:33 PM

I think the issue with this assessment is that you can't really use current one-year performance arbitration (ie the money you get going year to year) as the same as the guarantee you get by locking up those years.....because you have a bunch of guys that have gone into/through arbitration that aren't getting anything near those numbers despite their projectability during team control years due to injury or performance concerns.

Matt Wieters is an easy example of things not turning out like you were hoping. Mike Soroka certainly had a bigger profile after a huge year, tore his achilles and is still struggling to get back to quality. If Tatis Jr wasn't locked into his deal....would the last 2 years impact what he would be getting in a year-to-year arbitration award?

Then there's the recent example of John Means. Let's go look at the crazy comments people were making about locking him up after the perfect game no-hitter. Little injury, some soft performance and then TJS and his earnings profile is WAY off what it could have been if he's locked into something when his stock was hot.

That's why I went with a value a good chunk below what would be a conceivable max, and a moderately discounted FA rate of $35M compared to whatever will be the going price for a stud position player in 2028. The player has to concede some of the max earnings to transfer all the risk to the team, but I think that a 6/$130M model does that. I'd prefer to buy out another FA year or two, so 8/$200M.

#34 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 11:21 AM

Even Bob Nutting....[smh]

 

 

Robert Murray

BREAKING: Outfielder Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in agreement on an eight-year, $106.75 million contract extension with a team option for 2031, according to sources familiar with the deal. It includes a form of no-trade protection.


#35 Slidemaster

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 11:24 AM

Well, the Pirates are apparently capable of extending their young players. 8/106 for Reynolds

#36 Mackus

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:02 PM

Even Bob Nutting....[smh]

 

Wow, tremendous deal for Pittsburgh.  Reynolds is three years (incl rest of 2023) from FA, but not a ton of injury risk for a position player.  Nimmo just got 8/$160M.  Making some rough arb estimates, looks like Reynolds signed away 5 FA years for $75M or less.  Obviously the player has to give a discount in order to get the guarantees sooner, but that's a pretty steep discount.  

 

Everybody has different priorities, but we should absolutely be finding out which of our young guys values security.



#37 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:10 PM

Wow, tremendous deal for Pittsburgh.  Reynolds is three years (incl rest of 2023) from FA, but not a ton of injury risk for a position player.  Nimmo just got 8/$160M.  Making some rough arb estimates, looks like Reynolds signed away 5 FA years for $75M or less.  Obviously the player has to give a discount in order to get the guarantees sooner, but that's a pretty steep discount.  

 

Everybody has different priorities, but we should absolutely be finding out which of our young guys values security.

 

There's apparently a no-trade clause too, though exact terms of it aren't specified yet. Not sure if that can be assigned any sort of monetary value, but knowing the tendency of the franchise he plays for it might be worth something on top of the dollars.



#38 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:19 PM

“Pirates. Those idiots.”

-John Angelos
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#39 BaltBird 24

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:19 PM

Orioles can't afford a $106 million dollar contract.

#40 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:21 PM

Orioles can't afford a $106 million dollar contract.

 

Thanks to the New York State Court of Appeals, I think they just inked the Washington Nationals to a contract for an amount close to that.






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