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BSL: “It is the first step that costs”: Extending Adley Rutschman


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#1 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 22 November 2021 - 04:02 PM

BSL: “It is the first step that costs”: Extending Adley Rutschman

https://baltimorespo...dley-rutschman/


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#2 Mackus

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Posted 22 November 2021 - 04:35 PM

I think these are all more money than it would take, but I'm absolutely fine with any of the options.  If he's willing to sign, there really isn't anything difficult about structuring the contract.

 

I do think you gotta re-assess and look at 7 years until free agency for Rutschman, not 6, since there is no way the Orioles call him up to be early enough to finish the year with a full year of service time.  I'd be surprised if they even call him up before June, since they're cheapness in wanting to avoid him being a Super-2 far outweighs their interest in having Adley help the team win any 2022 games.

 

Also a chance that the new CBA changes lots of things.  I could see some motivation from both sides to get things done before they know the rule changes, but since it's likely that things get more player-friendly than less, I imagine that Rutschman's side will want to wait until the new CBA is in place before turning the crank on what a deal should look like. 


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#3 makoman

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Posted 22 November 2021 - 05:47 PM

It’s pretty wild that the #1 prospect in baseball who was also the #1 pick won’t be a free agent till after his age 30 season. Who knows how they might grandfather in people but if FA changes to age based and affects him that could be huge.

#4 BaltBird 24

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Posted 22 November 2021 - 05:59 PM

Imagine having Adley Rutschman and then losing him in 3-4 years because you played yourself in the service clock game.

That would be Oriole luck.
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#5 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 November 2021 - 09:30 AM

Personally I wouldn't even consider the "mega" type deal for a catcher. Just too risky imo. But the middle approach seems like a good way to go for both sides.


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#6 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 23 November 2021 - 03:14 PM

As a side note, Wander Franco just signed for 11/$182M, with escalators and options taking it up to a max of 12/$223M.

#7 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 November 2021 - 03:26 PM

As a side note, Wander Franco just signed for 11/$182M, with escalators and options taking it up to a max of 12/$223M.

 

https://forum.baltim...ay-rays/page-28



#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 November 2021 - 10:11 AM

MASN: I wonder where Wander will spend all that money?

https://www.masnspor...that-money.html



#9 dude

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Posted 26 November 2021 - 03:48 PM

I have a number of comments but wanted to wait a little to add them.

1) I agree with everything Mackus said in post #2. Highlight: It's no guarantee the Orioles don't try to limit his Super-2 eligibility. We'll see what they do (and the new CBA), but they aren't going to be (have no intention of being) competitive in 2022 and Super-2 could add something in the 15-20M range over the same 6 years which could impact the Orioles hand a year early.

2) I don't know how you have this discussion without over-laying his respective age against the years. It's the most important thing for players/agents making these types of decisions.

3) Since we're adding Wander Franco in here, I'll expand on this separately, but I'm not sure what his agent is doing. 200M is a lot of money and he can do whatever he wants, but ugh.

4) I see zero incentive for Adley to do what's being suggested here.

4A) Option 1 is nothing. Neither side really needs it unless you are trying to get in front of the next CBA structure but if I'm AR/agent, you can certainly wait on that.

4B) Option 2 is terrible for the Player. Giving up 3 FA years (current FA projection) makes him a FA at age 34. Again, anyone can do whatever they want, but that would be 10 times worse than what Franco is hugely minimizing. Yes, 126M is a lot of money but that would be a terrible deal for AR if he cares anything about career earnings. Maybe he just wants to be an Oriole for 9+ years.

4C) Option 3 is something. I think it's incredibly hard to put together things like this given the risks on both sides (why GSP is way better) but if you do want to put something like this together, you probably have to get to a bigger number and you just use more years to do it (what Harper did). So put 250+M on it and take him to age 40. There's less risk on the players side because it's unlikely he'll generate 300+M from age 31, but he could generate 200M so you have to take the split somewhere in there. Probably not a starter for the Orioles.

5) They've really blown the window for doing something. I discussed this HERE over 2 years ago (post #14, others) in Zach's "Looking for possible ETAs for Rutschman" article in OCT 2020.

If you wanted to create incentive for doing something, then was the time. There's significantly less incentive now. If you had done what I suggested then, he'd have an extra year+ of ML statistics, he'd already be established (none of the current conversation) and it would have only cost him one-year over the Baseline control we see today, he'd have more money in his pocket and basically hit the guarantee that Stephen is suggesting in Option 1 and the Orioles would have a light version of option 3 available where it's easy to renegotiate earlier in the contract for the out years, if you think there's stability in the profile (so you can get to a better risk position for both sides than Option 3 here)

6) Rutschman's best option today is to wait and see what happens. He could be looking at a scenario where the Orioles trade him after year 4 and he could certainly incentivize a trade by agreeing to an extension with the gaining team...essentially letting him negotiate a contract after 2026 for the rest of his career. Or he'll have made 35-60M through 2028 and you worry about it then.

If you wanted to incentivize both sides some today/soon, AR/agent could look to bring a full-season 2022 into play to eliminate the May vs July considerations and you create better RoY opportunities. It's sort of Option 1, but it's 7 years, not 6. Right now, AR is not a FA before 2028, so he can negotiate in a full 2022 (so that's a 7/XY contract)

7) All of the Fangraph's and 'surplus value' stuff is garbage.



#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 03:04 PM

Bump.



#11 Mackus

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 04:33 PM

It's possible he wasn't interested before last season, but I'd be real surprised if they can extend him at this point.

#12 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 04:39 PM

It's possible he wasn't interested before last season, but I'd be real surprised if they can extend him at this point.

I mean let's be real here - I'd be far more surprised if the O's were even willing to.


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#13 dude

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 06:24 PM

I don't think I change any of my thoughts. 

 

I think the current view of the situation changes a little. ie, the numbers change some.

 

1) All the things you'd want to do to create value in a deal are out the window, you just are managing risk in the guarantee at this point.  He's in the Majors, he's performing, the new CBA gave him 1.0 for 2022 so those are all now start points.

 

2) I'll continue to say this.  I have no idea what he wants to do and there a number of perspectives he could take.  He can chase any contract number he wants.  If money is the only thing that matters, at this point, he should probably just play it out to FA.  The CBA makes him a FA at 30 now (not 31) and that's the latest he'd want to hit it straight on.  He'll get something around 40M over the next 4 years to FA. If you think you can sign something for 300M (using some of the length approaches we saw last offseason) then that's a total of maybe 340M.  The catching value will wane some over time (he'll wind up more bat-first at 1B or DH)...but great, 340M.

 

3) HoF trajectory (ok, way too early, but...) so that would be his second contract in terms of hat.

 

4) He has to decide what he wants in terms of his Legacy.  If he's chasing next contracts like someone like Carlos Beltran, he can wind up with a great career and 'max' earnings and no Legacy Home in terms of your life beyond playing day.  Again, you get to choose what you want to do.  We know Gunnar is chasing the money because he's chosen Boras as his agent. Holliday will too.  From a Legacy view, Adley could change the top 5 in Orioles history (Cal, Eddie, Brooks, Frank, Palmer) into a top 6.  That will matter more in the year 2040 than people will perceive it today, but what it means then is a choice you make now.

 

5) Somewhere you have to manage some risk for a catcher.  Players typically view waiting as low risk, but there's a lot of examples where there's regret there and even more places where players are extremely glad they locked in because the teams hate the deals they have.  I've pointed this out many times but the Orioles seem to have offered MW something over 100M, he waited and his career earning (not including SB) around 61M.

 

Just thoughts here, but I'd guess you need to be in the 7/140M range to make something interesting.  I've suggested something similar, but I'd put something like 7/175 behind that.  That's out to age 39 (2037) and in the 300M neighborhood.  That's 90% of "max value", you get Legacy and it costs you a (team risk option) at age 33.  Still 140M locked in (250% MW).  I've written out some new details (versus ones laid out before), but who cares.



#14 Mike in STL

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 07:59 PM

Sounds like a Nashville Orioles problem to me.
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#15 BaltBird 24

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 08:05 PM

Sounds like a Nashville Orioles problem to me.


You'll enjoy your brand new chain restaurants and generic entertainment built around OPACY and you'll love it.
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#16 Slidemaster

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Posted 14 April 2023 - 10:33 PM

You'll enjoy your brand new chain restaurants and generic entertainment built around OPACY and you'll love it.


I think you mean Fidelity Park at Camden Yards, or whatever they rename it.

And they won't go shopping g for FAs outside the bargain bin - not a chance in hell they extend Adley. Just enjoy him while he's here before he's traded after 2026.

#17 Mike in STL

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Posted 15 April 2023 - 04:34 PM

I think you mean Fidelity Park at Camden Yards, or whatever they rename it.

And they won't go shopping g for FAs outside the bargain bin - not a chance in hell they extend Adley. Just enjoy him while he's here before he's traded after 2026.

It's quite sad. Even if you explained the long term advantage of buying out arbitration and future free agent years with a long term deal now, I don't think JA would understand, nor care. All he would see is, "more expensive today? Nope."  


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#18 Slidemaster

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Posted 16 April 2023 - 01:43 PM

It's quite sad. Even if you explained the long term advantage of buying out arbitration and future free agent years with a long term deal now, I don't think JA would understand, nor care. All he would see is, "more expensive today? Nope."


Yup. Zero interest in the team's success. Zero interest in what it means to the city. He runs it like a business and nothing else.

#19 JoyinMudville

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Posted 16 April 2023 - 07:25 PM

Yup. Zero interest in the team's success. Zero interest in what it means to the city. He runs it like a business and nothing else.

 

Well, a smart business model is putting a good product on the field that will fill up seats. Add to that, revenue from post season. Signing him long term would do that.



#20 JoyinMudville

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Posted 16 April 2023 - 07:27 PM

I don't know enough about his background. Any indication where he would like to play?

 

The idea of repeating the Machado fiasco is depressing.






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