67 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List (10-1)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4704

Thank you all for reading.
Hope my top 30 was informative.
Any questions are welcome.

I'm surprised Brenden Webb didn't make the top 30 at all but maybe I'm just bullish on him. I have Eduardo Rodriguez in my top 5 but overall I enjoyed reading everything you had to say. Have to be excited about our top 3.

[Tucker Blair]

I'm surprised Brenden Webb didn't make the top 30 at all but maybe I'm just bullish on him. I have Eduardo Rodriguez in my top 5 but overall I enjoyed reading everything you had to say. Have to be excited about our top 3.

I really do like Webb and he was actually one of my last cuts.
The people I talked to were not as high on him and one viewed him as simply an org guy.
I think he is probably more than that, but he really does have contact issues.

I may do a post with people who just missed. Maybe this weekend

[RichardZ]

Most high power arms in the minors have control issues. Honestly, majority of pitchers in the minors have some form of command or control issues. I don't know many lists that would leave off either one of these guys. They simply do not grow off trees. There are not many people within the system that has stuff near Schrader. He absolutely dominated Frederick and had a little growing pain at Bowie, although he is still only 22.
Belfiore had excellent numbers. Would you classify a 2.71 ERA in 66.1innings with a 78/26 K/BB not better than decent? I view Schrader as the better of the two, simply because he has the stuff to dominate at times.

Just because a guy is a RP does not mean he cannot have value to a club. I do understand what you are saying,I just don't believe it should matter whether they are a SP or RP. I think we would all agree that a lot of starters end up in the pen anyways. Also, the system is really top heavy. The difference between 15-30 is not really that large. There is a top tier and then everyone else. Some will break into the next level, some will simply fade away.

1. Unless they are really elite bullpen arms, yes they do grow on trees. Smart teams pick up arms like Greg Burke, Pomeranz, Miguel Gonzalez, Luis Ayala, and Miguel Socolovich for next to nothing every year.

2. Guess we have different definitiions of dominate. Schrader had a 1.32 WHIP at Frederck. As for that little growing pain at Bowie, 24 BB's and only 17 strikeouts in 23 IP, just show that he has a long way to go.

3. Belfiore was 23 this season and after dominating the Cal League (0.94 WHIP 2 walks 28 K's in 19 IP) his numbers were DECENT at Bowie (1.35 WHIP 50 K's 21 walks in 47 IP). Those aren't dominant numbers. It gets tougher as you advance.

4. A mediocre starter in the minors with a good arm can be a dominant or at least a very effective reliever in most cases, That's why I think you are overrating both Schrader and Belfiore. I understand why you have them on the list. I just disagree.

[Tucker Blair]

1. Unless they are really elite bullpen arms, yes they do grow on trees. Smart teams pick up arms like Greg Burke, Pomeranz, Miguel Gonzalez, Luis Ayala, and Miguel Socolovich for next to nothing every year.

2. Guess we have different definitiions of dominate. Schrader had a 1.32 WHIP at Frederck. As for that little growing pain at Bowie, 24 BB's and only 17 strikeouts in 23 IP, just show that he has a long way to go.

3. Belfiore was 23 this season and after dominating the Cal League (0.94 WHIP 2 walks 28 K's in 19 IP) his numbers were DECENT at Bowie (1.35 WHIP 50 K's 21 walks in 47 IP). Those aren't dominant numbers. It gets tougher as you advance.

4. A mediocre starter in the minors with a good arm can be a dominant or at least a very effective reliever in most cases, That's why I think you are overrating both Schrader and Belfiore. I understand why you have them on the list. I just disagree.

Schrader has the potential to be an elite bullpen arm. Also guys like Gonzalez and Pomeranz are the exception not the rule. For every one of them, there are 5-10 guys that do nothing. Also Ayala has been an established RP before, I wouldn't put him in the same category with those guys.

It's important to not only look at numbers in the minors... You need to focus on their potential more-so than what the numbers are. Not saying that numbers do not matter (of course they do), but they are not the only chapter to a story.

Another thing on RP. The reason they can rate just as high is because they are fast moving and can have an immediate impact. They can help quickly and move up the ladder fast. It takes more time to iron out kinks as a SP, and in the bullpen a pitcher can get away with some flaws in their mechanics, delivery, and approach. Pedro Strop is a good example. Imagine him as a starter. He wouldn't last longer than 3 innings without imploding due to all the wacky stuff he does (Just a general example, don't look too much into me using him as it)

Also, sources I talked to while compiling this list had Schrader higher on their lists than mine. One guy had him top 10. Belfiore was anywhere from 20-15, so I don't think I am any higher on those two than anyone else.
This list was not just my opinion, I put some effort into talking to others with much more experience than my own so it was a more concise list.

There are a ton of RP I left off this list because they were a dime-a-dozen types. They have talent but just didn't do anything to separate themselves from the pack. Guys like Trent Howard, Matt Taylor, Ryan Berry, Josh Hader (although Josh is more due to him not having an extensive resume yet. He could absolutely make this list at midseason next year, but just want to see more before making that jump)

I hope what I am saying makes some form of sense. I can see why some would not want RP rated as high.

[ravens8589]

Nope, he had over 130 AB, which is the mark for being eligible.
I also did not put Avery on here because he's played enough for me to not consider him a prospect anymore.

Machado would be #2 if he still was eligible.

The official rules:

Thanks for clearing it up Tucker. I appreciate that. I just remembered Keith Law saying Machado was not eligible for rookie of the year, although I do not think he would have won. So I just wasn't sure. I appreciate it.

[RichardZ]

I don't agree with your reasoning for not putting Avery on the list. He still is a prospect. I think Avery would still factor in to the top 10 or just out of it. No big deal. How about Henry Urrutia, the Cuban signee? He is also technically a prospect and, if he ever gets his visa, is likely to start next year in Bowie or even higher.

Here's how I would rank em.

1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Jon Schoop
4. Steve Johnson (I think he qualifies. He migth be a 5th starter but he had a really good season)
5. Henry Urrutia (He's Cuban, we paid him over 500K and our system is weak after the top 3
6. Xavier Avery (Probably a 4th OF but he's been pushed and he stil has offensive upside)
7. L.J. Hoes (Without the power, he's not a starter. He's here because the power is still possible.)
8. Mike Wright (He gets smacked around too often but he's got a big arm and been pushed aggressively)
9. Adrian Marin (Good debut. Sounds good)
10. Branden Kline (Good arm. Middling results in college as a starter. Young for a college junior which is a plus)
11. Parker Bridwell (Good arm, young, terrible season)
12. Nick Delmonico (No position yet. The offense was okay but not impressive)
13. Bobby Bundy (bone chips in elbow shouldn't be too serious. Not giving up on him yet)
14. Devin Jones (Good arm. Good starts at Frederick. Good start at Bowie in an interesting rotation)
15. Tyler Wilson (Impressive finish to season at Frederick. Also could start at Bowie)
16. Josh Hader (Dominant stats in relief at age 18. Lot's of promise there)
17. Trent Mummey (I'm also high on Mummey. Just wish he'd stay healthy.)
18. Glynn Davis (Can't get too excited from a player showing zero power)
19. Eduardo Rodriguez (A pitcher whose main strength is pitchability should have done better)
20. Zach Davies (Good numbers. Average arm)
21. Christian Walker (Solid hitter with plate discipline. Long way to go)
22. Tyler Kelly (Not sure about his defense at 2B/3B but breakthrough season at Frederick, held own at AAA and AA.
23. Roderick Bernadina (offensive potential. Needs a strong season at Delmarva)
24. Tim Berry (Very Inconsistent but org seems high on him)
25. Lex Rutledge (Good arm. Lousy command. High celing. Low floor)
26. Bennet Parry (Big lefty with promise)
27. Torsten Boss (Intriguing but not sure if bat will advance well)
28. Tyler Townsend (Probably has better bat than Delmonico but can't stay healthy)
29. Michael Ohlman (Possible breakthrough at Delmarva last year. Future position in question)
30. Hector Veloz (Young with power potential but early results don't look promising)

[BSLChrisStoner]

RZNJ, good point about Urrutia.

With Avery having less than 100 ab's, I can see including him. Don't have a problem with not though. If he was included, I would have him under Hoes though.

[RichardZ]

RZNJ, good point about Urrutia.

With Avery having less than 100 ab's, I can see including him. Don't have a problem with not though. If he was included, I would have him under Hoes though.

I have had it both ways but here's why I have Avery higher right now. Except for a couple of weeks last year mid year at Bowie, L.J. Hoes has shown little to no power, so I must assume that two week stretch was the fluke. You have a corner OF with no power, average speed, and decent, not great, plate disicpline. Avery actually has show more extra base power than Hoes, has better speed and basestealing ability, and is probably the better defender in LF or CF. As for on base skills, they aren't as far apart as you might think, it's just that Hoes has always hit for the better average. Avery is the more frustrating player and yet when you look at what he did last May, before his callup, you'll see 52 AB's where hit put up a .915 OPS with just 6 strikeouts. I know that's cherry picking just like the two weeks where Hoes hit some homers but Avery shows these spurts from time to time each season and, although I'm doubtful he ever finds the consistency needed, I still think he has the higher talent, the higher ceiling, and not that much worse of a chance than Hoes of reaching it.

[Tucker Blair]

I don't have a problem including Hoes. Like I said, it's a personal preference for me to not include players whom play a significant amount of time.

No inclusion from me on Urrutia because I have not seen him and I also have been told by people whom have that his ceiling is not all that high.

[RichardZ]

I don't have a problem including Hoes. Like I said, it's a personal preference for me to not include players whom play a significant amount of time.

No inclusion from me on Urrutia because I have not seen him and I also have been told by people whom have that his ceiling is not all that high.

Do you think Hoes has a high ceiling? I think there are plenty of guys in the top ten you listed whom most scouts would not consider high ceiling players. I know very little about Urrutia except that:

1. He averaged .350 over his last 4-5 seasons
2. His last season in 2010, at age 23, he hit .397 with decent power numbers (12 homers in 300 AB's)
3. The Cuban League might be A ball level but a decent about of it's players have made the majors and been regulars (Kendry Morales on the Angels, Ramirez and Viciedo on the White Sox, Escobar on the Blue Jays, etc.)
4. The O's paid him over 500K on the advice of Fred Ferreira
5. Hard to believe we have 25 prospects better than this guy although we know nothing about him.

[Tucker Blair]

Do you think Hoes has a high ceiling? I think there are plenty of guys in the top ten you listed whom most scouts would not consider high ceiling players. I know very little about Urrutia except that:

1. He averaged .350 over his last 4-5 seasons
2. His last season in 2010, at age 23, he hit .397 with decent power numbers (12 homers in 300 AB's)
3. The Cuban League might be A ball level but a decent about of it's players have made the majors and been regulars (Kendry Morales on the Angels, Ramirez and Viciedo on the White Sox, Escobar on the Blue Jays, etc.)
4. The O's paid him over 500K on the advice of Fred Ferreira
5. Hard to believe we have 25 prospects better than this guy although we know nothing about him.

I wouldn't say Hoes has a high ceiling. I think he can be an average hitter in the MLB. Some would argue that him being a corner OF significantly hurts his stock. While, I see the argument and can agree with it to an extent... I don't think it matters for the Orioles since they have power in other areas.

The Orioles simply do not have many high ceiling players at all. It's just not a heavy system. There are guys that could prove to be more valuable down the road, but just nobody right now has moved into that top tier.
Maybe Delmonico, Marin, and a few other guys can do that next season...maybe not. Parker DOES have a high ceiling, but he is having trouble piecing it together currently.

If not noticeable from my list, I am one to be very conservative with a player. I will put Urrutia and others in my list when I see extended success (or see them myself and like the package). He actually received $778,500, which is a lot. Fred could very well have found someone. He could be a fast riser, but just from what I have heard there is minimal growth left.

[Shorebirdfan]

I liked your take on Rodriguez. I agree that a long roll out of the bullpen might be in the cards for him long term. I did find the high position for G Davis a bit of a reach and my biggest concern for him is what the bounce back down to Delmarva after a promotion might have done to his game. At first he appearred to "play angry" but it wore off quickly and he struggled.

You couldn't have said it any better on Bridwell. That is ALOT of talent there and if and when he puts it all together he could speed through the mid levels of the organization.

[Tucker Blair]

I liked your take on Rodriguez. I agree that a long roll out of the bullpen might be in the cards for him long term. I did find the high position for G Davis a bit of a reach and my biggest concern for him is what the bounce back down to Delmarva after a promotion might have done to his game. At first he appearred to "play angry" but it wore off quickly and he struggled.

You couldn't have said it any better on Bridwell. That is ALOT of talent there and if and when he puts it all together he could speed through the mid levels of the organization.

Welcome to the board Tim!

Interesting note on Glynn. Nobody watched him more than you this season so I enjoy the info. I would say he was the highest reach on my list (in my eyes)

[Tucker Blair]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Prospects "On The Cusp" List
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4954

[BobPhelan]

Good stuff.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Which prospects numbers 5 and below interest you the most going into next year?

[Tucker Blair]

Which prospects numbers 5 and below interest you the most going into next year?

The 3 prospects I am most intrigued by are easily:

Glynn Davis
Adrian Marin
Michael Ohlman


Davis has super athletic ability, and is already the best defensive OF and baserunner in the entire organization (Including MLB! At least in my eyes). You cannot teach that. He still has room to grow out in CF too, primarily with his route running. With the bat, he needs to be a little more consistent and not drop the hands (which he does occasionally do) I mentioned in my piece on him that he still has poor weight transfer, and that causes some weak fly balls. I think with a little more muscle added (he is a stick), he could really turn into something. Of course guys like this always phase out too, so it's primarily the potential that makes me really excited with Davis.

Adrian Marin is another athletic player up the middle. Good hands, soft hands, good feet, decent enough arm. solid bat speed, solid speed, not much power. I think mostly anyone would have him as one of their top excitements heading into 2013. He could really boost his prospect status with a solid season at Delmarva. I haven't seen him yet either, which makes him even more exciting. I tried to see everyone this season, but he only played a handful of games with Delmarva.

Ohlman is a guy that I really am excited to see what happens with a full season. He is playing in Australia now, so lets hope that he can ride a hot wave back over here. From some of the people I talked to, his bat has probably progressed the most out of everyone in the system. Defensively, he still has some work, but improved drastically. I am hoping he really ticks it up a notch more in 2013. He always had talent, it was just a problem getting by the off-field issues and injury concerns.

[BobPhelan]

Which prospects numbers 5 and below interest you the most going into next year?

1. Eduardo Rodriguez
2. Josh Hader
3. Brenden Webb

Honorable mentions: Tyler Kelly, Brandon Kline, Tom Winegardner

[Tucker Blair]

If there are any other prospects within the system you would like for me to touch on, please let me know here.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Bump.