67 replies to this topic

[Tucker Blair]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List
(On the Cusp)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4954

(30-21)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4657

(20-11)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4684

(10-1)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4704

[BobPhelan]

I don't agree with Esposito at 21 but I really enjoyed the article. Looking forward to the top 20.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Outstanding work from Tucker, looking forward to seeing the rest of this.

As Tucker posts the rest, give him feedback on where you agree or disagree.

[Tucker Blair]

I don't agree with Esposito at 21 but I really enjoyed the article. Looking forward to the top 20.

Thanks Bob.
Think he should be higher or lower? He is definitely a guy that I expected a lot of buzz about on the list, so no worries. There is still so much unknown on him in my eyes. Do we count this as a fluke, or is he just not as good as advertised originally. My reasoning behind his current spot was simply a "wait and see approach".

[BobPhelan]

Thanks Bob.
Think he should be higher or lower? He is definitely a guy that I expected a lot of buzz about on the list, so no worries. There is still so much unknown on him in my eyes. Do we count this as a fluke, or is he just not as good as advertised originally. My reasoning behind his current spot was simply a "wait and see approach".

I haven't really looked into it too deeply yet but I could see putting him at 30 (or 25 in my case) and mentioning that he still has an outside shot at becoming the player he was drafted to be, but I don't think he would make my list. I don't think 21 is unreasonable, I just don't see him putting it together after last season. Hope I'm wrong.

[Tucker Blair]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List (20-11)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4684

[BSLChrisStoner]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List (20-11)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4684

Again, some great write-ups from Tucker.

[BobPhelan]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List (20-11)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4684

Good stuff.

Rutledge and Belfiore are interesting. I'm not sure Bobby Bundy deserves to be as high as 11 anymore. Is Brenden Webb going to make the list? I think I would have him in this range.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I still like Wilson and Jones as relievers, but don't have a problem with them continuing to start and gain additional innings and experience. As just relievers, I would think they could probably both be an option to help in Baltimore in late '13.

Schrader I fully expect to see time in Baltimore next year.

I am looking forward to seeing what Marin does over a full season at Delmarva. I don't think a lot has changed with B. Bundy except his prestige and expectations for him have been reduced. He gets healthy, and performs at Bowie; he could be used similarly to how Steve Johnson was used down the stretch in '12 for the O's.

[RichardZ]

I think guys like Schrader and Belfiore are ranked a little too high. Schrader had control issues in High A and those were exposed at AA. I'd think he might not even be on some top 30 lists. I'm skeptical of guys who work their way up through the minors strictly as relivers. Belfiore is lefty and has put up decent numbers but they aren't knock your socks off numbers. Again, not sure I put him on my list at all, but closer to the 30 mark if I did.

[Tucker Blair]

I think guys like Schrader and Belfiore are ranked a little too high. Schrader had control issues in High A and those were exposed at AA. I'd think he might not even be on some top 30 lists. I'm skeptical of guys who work their way up through the minors strictly as relivers. Belfiore is lefty and has put up decent numbers but they aren't knock your socks off numbers. Again, not sure I put him on my list at all, but closer to the 30 mark if I did.

Most high power arms in the minors have control issues. Honestly, majority of pitchers in the minors have some form of command or control issues. I don't know many lists that would leave off either one of these guys. They simply do not grow off trees.
There are not many people within the system that has stuff near Schrader. He absolutely dominated Frederick and had a little growing pain at Bowie, although he is still only 22.
Belfiore had excellent numbers. Would you classify a 2.71 ERA in 66.1innings with a 78/26 K/BB not better than decent? I view Schrader as the better of the two, simply because he has the stuff to dominate at times.

Just because a guy is a RP does not mean he cannot have value to a club. I do understand what you are saying,I just don't believe it should matter whether they are a SP or RP. I think we would all agree that a lot of starters end up in the pen anyways. Also, the system is really top heavy. The difference between 15-30 is not really that large. There is a top tier and then everyone else. Some will break into the next level, some will simply fade away.

[Tucker Blair]

I still like Wilson and Jones as relievers, but don't have a problem with them continuing to start and gain additional innings and experience. As just relievers, I would think they could probably both be an option to help in Baltimore in late '13.

Schrader I fully expect to see time in Baltimore next year.

I am looking forward to seeing what Marin does over a full season at Delmarva. I don't think a lot has changed with B. Bundy except his prestige and expectations for him have been reduced. He gets healthy, and performs at Bowie; he could be used similarly to how Steve Johnson was used down the stretch in '12 for the O's.

I wish I could have seen Wilson and Jones again. Those two were not really talked about much earlier in the year, and they really created some buzz.

Marin is probably the one guy I am most excited about next season (besides Gausman obviously).
You nailed it with Bobby. Pretty much exactly what I think too, although my expectations didn't really waver much from a year ago.

[Kevin Ebert]

Tucker - can you explain why you think that there isn't much difference in value between relief prospects and starting pitcher prospects?

I personally think there is a huge difference in value between the two. It's not that hard to find a decent middle relief arm in the free agent market, but decent starting pitchers on the free agent market get 3 or 4 years at some times $10m/per season.

That's my only quibble with the list really. I think you have the relievers too high. I'd rather have position players with raw tools than relief prospects at the top of the list. I guess it's personal preference.

[Tucker Blair]

Tucker - can you explain why you think that there isn't much difference in value between relief prospects and starting pitcher prospects?

I personally think there is a huge difference in value between the two. It's not that hard to find a decent middle relief arm in the free agent market, but decent starting pitchers on the free agent market get 3 or 4 years at some times $10m/per season.

That's my only quibble with the list really. I think you have the relievers too high. I'd rather have position players with raw tools than relief prospects at the top of the list. I guess it's personal preference.

I think there is not a difference because I'd much rather take a good reliever over a bad starter. I think the Orioles season is a perfect example of how important a good bullpen can be. I'm not really looking at this from a free agent perspective. This is all about value within the system. You are correct on that front with SP over RP in a free agent market, and I can't really argue that. The thing is, this system is barren with position players with raw tools. There simply are not many in my eyes that are of better value right now. Sure, I could probably have moved Bernadina or something over them.

It really is preference also. Like I mentioned, after 10 or 15, it's really not all that large of a difference in talent. At least not in this system. From my own eyes and the opinions I gathered from others this season, I simply did not see many great positional players.

[LanceRinker]

I think there is not a difference because I'd much rather take a good reliever over a bad starter. I think the Orioles season is a perfect example of how important a good bullpen can be. I'm not really looking at this from a free agent perspective. This is all about value within the system. You are correct on that front with SP over RP in a free agent market, and I can't really argue that. The thing is, this system is barren with position players with raw tools. There simply are not many in my eyes that are of better value right now. Sure, I could probably have moved Bernadina or something over them.

It really is preference also. Like I mentioned, after 10 or 15, it's really not all that large of a difference in talent. At least not in this system. From my own eyes and the opinions I gathered from others this season, I simply did not see many great positional players.

How good of a job do you think the O's did in drafting this past year? I know you had a few of them on your list already, but I'm curious as to how you feel about this most recent draft.

Has it drastically changed your perception of the minor league system for the next few years or not much?

[Tucker Blair]

How good of a job do you think the O's did in drafting this past year? I know you had a few of them on your list already, but I'm curious as to how you feel about this most recent draft.

Has it drastically changed your perception of the minor league system for the next few years or not much?

There are four 2012 draft picks on my top 30. I think they did a decent job, although that really remains to be seen. They took a lot of college guys in the middle rounds that I just am not too excited about, although they took a few late arms that look to be great picks like Hader and Pintar.
It's still a top-heavy system that garners most of the attention on the top 5-10. I don't think it really changed my opinion on the system too much from last year. a little better, but nothing overly dramatic.

[LanceRinker]

There are four 2012 draft picks on my top 30. I think they did a decent job, although that really remains to be seen. They took a lot of college guys in the middle rounds that I just am not too excited about, although they took a few late arms that look to be great picks like Hader and Pintar.
It's still a top-heavy system that garners most of the attention on the top 5-10. I don't think it really changed my opinion on the system too much from last year. a little better, but nothing overly dramatic.

Yeah, that's the one tricky thing about looking at recent drafts is that it takes a few seasons to really find out what you have in these guys.

I feel like they did a good job getting plenty of system filler type of guys as well as finding a few guys with higher potential than most, which you mentioned in your article already.

Still going to need another draft or two (at least) before I'm comfortable saying they have a system with more than just a few options short and long term.

[Tucker Blair]

BSL: 2012 Orioles Top 30 Prospect List (10-1)
http://baltimorespor...ife.com/?p=4704

Thank you all for reading.
Hope my top 30 was informative.
Any questions are welcome.

[ravens8589]

Tucker I just have one question, and maybe it is because I am not quite as in touch with baseball and prospects as you guys are. Isn't Manny Machado still technically a prospect because he didn't accrue enough time to get in the running for rookie of the year? I mean, I just looked at the top 10, which I imagine Machado would be in. Do you not consider him a prospect any longer?

[Tucker Blair]

Tucker I just have one question, and maybe it is because I am not quite as in touch with baseball and prospects as you guys are. Isn't Manny Machado still technically a prospect because he didn't accrue enough time to get in the running for rookie of the year? I mean, I just looked at the top 10, which I imagine Machado would be in. Do you not consider him a prospect any longer?

Nope, he had over 130 AB, which is the mark for being eligible.
I also did not put Avery on here because he's played enough for me to not consider him a prospect anymore.

Machado would be #2 if he still was eligible.

The official rules:

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).