25 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Chat: http://www.camdencha...-base#storyjump

I suspect that many people will have Andrew's initial reaction of horror to Reynolds going back to 3rd, but I think Andrew's 2nd take is the right one.

Obviously you did not need advanced defensive metrics to know Reynolds had an abysmal year at 3rd last year with far to many errors made. I saw a guy capable of making his share of great plays, who butchered the routine too often. I think he has decent range, especially to his left, and a capable arm. I also think that if you look at his UZR/150 numbers over ’09, and ’10; there is reason to believe he can play the position effectively. While his UZR/150 numbers at 1st last year were better vs. what he did at 3rd; it was not like he was Keith Hernandez out there. He had a -17.4 UZR/150, which is brutal in its own right (and below his ’09, and ’10 numbers at 3rd).

I thought Davis looked stiff at 3rd, and looked better at 1st.

I like Reynolds a lot as a 3rd baseman, and less so across the diamond. He's another player it makes sense to shop and see what value could come back. However, I would also have no problem with the O's picking up his $11M option for '13, and possibly extending him a year or two past that.

[Greg Pappas]

Reynolds should be dealt, and in no way shape or form would I want him here making 11m, unless there is a very noticeable uptick in his defense at third.

[Can_of_corn]

Reynolds should be dealt, and in no way shape or form would I want him here making 11m, unless there is a very noticeable uptick in his defense at third.

Up to his career averages?

[SportsGuy]

As currently constructed, there is no doubt that Reynolds should be at third.

[Greg Pappas]

Reynolds should be dealt, and in no way shape or form would I want him here making 11m, unless there is a very noticeable uptick in his defense at third.

Up to his career averages?

Better than that. I don't see him as being worth $11m with below average defense at third.

http://www.fangraphs... ... t-defense/

This has been a horrible year for Reynolds in the field. While he’s always been a below average fielder, this season he’s taken things to a whole new level. But hey, that’s how baseball goes, right? Adam Dunn is having an outlier year at the plate, so it shouldn’t be inconceivable that a player could have a disastrous year in the field. Talent levels change, performances fluctuate — when you’re dealing with humans, you have to accept that performances aren’t always going to follow smooth trends.

If Reynolds can return to only being a -10 fielder at third base, the Orioles would be better off keeping him there than moving him to DH. But will he? How much will he regress next year toward his career average? I’m sure the Orioles are asking themselves the same question.

[David Robinette]

If you didn't read the whole text on the other blog, here is the essence, from Buck Showalter:

"You are going to see Mark start out at third base in the spring. That's where we would like for him to play. We think Mark is a lot better than he's shown statistically."

The second sentence provides the entire justification. Forget all about past performance, hard evidence, verifiable facts, reality, and plain old common sense. This is just one more example of why the Orioles are such an unbelievably dysfunctional organization. Why are so many baseball 'professionals' so fond of jamming square pegs into round holes?

Buck at least should be honest and say it this way: "Sure, I know he sucks at third base, but I really, really want him to play third base, because it's much more convenient for me. Then I won't have to think so hard."

[Andrew_G]

Thanks, Chris, for the plug. I've been really busy lately with work and not as able to interact with the internet as I want to, but I'm glad this got around.

Two sort of follow up things. One, I don't think Reynolds is a long-term fit for the Orioles, and that's mostly because he'll need to take a paycut and a long-term extension at the same time, and I don't see that happening. Two, if he plays at his career level of merely poor defense instead of eye-poppingly bad defense, he actually has the ability to be a good player overall. Because of the way positional adjustments work against him, he doesn't have that chance at first base or even at DH. A good year might good some ways towards being able to trade him off for something.

Anyway, there's no harm for the Orioles in going into spring training saying "Mark Reynolds wants to play third, and we want to support him". There's a lot of potential for harm and foolishness, but none of it has come to pass yet.

[David Robinette]

Well, if Reynolds does 'want' to play third base, it would be interesting to learn why, other than because Buck told him to want it. He did a good job at first base. His arm isn't accurate enough to be a good third baseman.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, if Reynolds does 'want' to play third base, it would be interesting to learn why, other than because Buck told him to want it. He did a good job at first base. His arm isn't accurate enough to be a good third baseman.

He wasn't good at first base, he was less bad then he was at third. I think his defensive ceiling at either position is league average.

[SportsGuy]

Reynolds at third base is where his value is the highest.

That's where he needs to be. It really is that simple.

[SteveA]

Well, if Reynolds does 'want' to play third base, it would be interesting to learn why, other than because Buck told him to want it. He did a good job at first base. His arm isn't accurate enough to be a good third baseman.

He wasn't good at first base, he was less bad then he was at third. I think his defensive ceiling at either position is league average.

I thought, at least via the eye test, he was pretty good. And I think he was fairly solid at fielding throws from the other infielders and not letting them get by him, which I *believe* is something that most of the defensive metrics completely ignore even though it is an important component of playing first base. [If I am wrong about this someone PLEASE correct me].

[David Robinette]

He sure picked a lot of infield throws out of the dirt. Whereas, at third base, he threw a lot of them into the dirt. Except for the ones he threw into the first-base seats or the visiting team's dugout.

Here is why I am not a manager of a baseball team: If I discover I have a 28-year-old, 6'2", 220 pound first baseman who consistently digs bad throws out of the dirt for outs, and also hits 35 - 40 home runs a season...my one and only inclination is to make sure I don't do anything to screw that up. Especially if my team has been in last place since the Clinton administration.

I am obviously not keeping up with the times, baseball-wise. These days there are lots of statistics that prove just how wrong I am about this. Modern baseball science now knows that the player described above is much more suited to play third base. And if you have to ask why, don't bother. It's much too complicated and you wouldn't understand.

[Andrew_G]

SteveA: Baseball Info Solution's Defensive Runs Saved takes scoops into account for 1Bmen. That particular metric did not like Reynolds at first last year, although he did not play nearly enough innings to really put much emphasis on it yet.

I agree that 3B is where Reynolds' value is highest, but he needs to play at least mediocre defense to be any good. He was basically replacement level last year because he gave everything he earned with his bat back with his glove. Which is why I don't think he's a long term answer at all.

[Andrew_G]

david, it's really not that complicated. You describe a guy with a lot of home runs and who looks good at handling throws at first base and say "that sounds like a really good first baseman to me". But you're ignoring how well Reynolds gets on base and how well the average first baseman in baseball hits home runs and gets on base.

As it turns out, Reynolds hits basically like a league average first baseman, but like a silver slugger at third. Ergo he is more valuable at third base.

But then, that is not really the motivation in Baltimore. It is instead almost definitely to get Chris Davis off third, where his defense could be worse, if not much worse, than Reynolds'.

[David Robinette]

Andrew, first of all, thank you for explaining your reasoning, even though I don't agree with it.

I don't agree with it because it follows the same "comparative analysis" trend that permeates most of baseball thinking these days. I am an old fashioned "absolutist." By that I mean that I really don't care how my first baseman compares to everyone else's first basemen, and I certainly would not change his position just to make him fit in with the rest of the league's crowd.

I want the best possible players -- offense and defense combined -- on my team. Mark does the least damage at first base. If his replacement at third base is even worse, then move him, not Mark. If you check Mark's defensive stats last year, you will see that he was a defensive liability at both positions, but much less so at first than at third. In fact, that has been his career history, at least in the majors.

[Andrew_G]

David, it's my pleasure. I'm a big believer in showing your work and helping people understand.

And I agree with you, since "how well a bat plays at a position" is pretty irrelevant in this scenario, with one small exception. That exception being Reynolds value on the trade market this summer would be pretty low as a first baseman (unless someone is hurt) but if he plays his normal just below-average defense at third (or if he has another career defensive year) then the O's could market him as a pretty good short-term 3B option to teams in races.

Anyway, I'm losing focus. What I want to say is that I agree with you, and it would not surprise me one bit if Reynolds ends up back at first and Davis at DH with Andino and Antonelli trying to hold down starting infield jobs.

[Can_of_corn]

If Reynolds can't play third at an acceptable level I would rather see him DH and keep Davis at first. I see no upside in having Reynolds take reps at first and relegating Davis, who is under team control for much longer, to DH.

[David Robinette]

I have a hard time understanding how a team can manage a player's future trade value, or if it's even possible to do. I don't know why a team would bother trying, either. Trying to do so implies that other teams' scouts and GMs are dummies who can't figure out when another team is showcasing a player. Because, if they know you are showcasing a player, the natural assumption is that you want to trade him. Leading to the conclusion that you...a last-place team, by the way, in Reynolds's case...don't really want to keep this player around. And if the Orioles don't...etc. You know.

It's one of those things that's either too confusing or sophisticated for me to understand. Or else it's just some more 21st Century stuff that diverts the attention of a team's management from the one and only objective of a baseball team, which used to be winning more games than the competition. Using, I might add, whatever players you had, no matter what anybody else thought of them or how you positioned them.

As for this Davis v. Reynolds issue: when Chris Davis hits 35+ home runs in one season, then he will have reached the status that Mark Reynolds currently enjoys, that of, admittedly, a sub-par defensive infielder who hits a less-than-desirable batting average but hits with power when he does hit.

Until Davis can get there, as long as both are on the Orioles, I want to play Reynolds where he is least harmful and happiest, and let Davis work on improving his batting and fielding skills as the opportunities arise for him to do that.

[bnickle]

I throw up a little in my mouth everytime I think about Reynolds at 3b. That said, Davis probably isn;t any better there and Davis is actually a solid 1b. Unfortunately the O's decided not to persue a 3B this year through trade or FA. Ideally, Reynolds is our DH. However, if the options are Reynolds and Davis I agree that it should be Reynolds at 3b and Davis at 1b.

[Can_of_corn]

I throw up a little in my mouth everytime I think about Reynolds at 3b. That said, Davis probably isn;t any better there and Davis is actually a solid 1b. Unfortunately the O's decided not to persue a 3B this year through trade or FA. Ideally, Reynolds is our DH. However, if the options are Reynolds and Davis I agree that it should be Reynolds at 3b and Davis at 1b.

If Antonelli can hit adequately then the O's have the option of playing either him or Andino at 3rd the majority of the time and dhing Reynolds.