131 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Declining to give a 34 y.o. DH a 4 year deal is never a mistake IMO. He was an extreme outlier. It happens. 

 

ETA: the fact that they did pretty much nothing in the offseason after coming so close in 2014 was really frustrating though.

[Mackus]

Declining to give a 34 y.o. DH a 4 year deal is never a mistake IMO. He was an extreme outlier. It happens. 

 

ETA: the fact that they did pretty much nothing in the offseason after coming so close in 2014 was really frustrating though.

 

I mean I definitely agree no mistake on the process of that decision.  But it's definitely proven to have been a mistake.  It's one of the extremely rare cases, perhaps unique, where a guy got considerably better after he turned 35.

 

Even those that wanted to give him a deal at the time weren't expecting him to get better.  

[RichardZ]

Maybe they thought Cruz would age normally. The Biogenesis scandal didn't slow him down at all. The O's got some of the benefits. Good guy but I figure he is probably one of the poster boys of the benefits of "super supplements"

[RichardZ]

I mean I definitely agree no mistake on the process of that decision. But it's definitely proven to have been a mistake. It's one of the extremely rare cases, perhaps unique, where a guy got considerably better after he turned 35.

Even those that wanted to give him a deal at the time weren't expecting him to get better.

Barry Bonds did too. Coincidence?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Scott is the most likely to get moved at this point. I believe more and more each day he's gone.

[bmore_ken]

Is anyone trying to convince you that they will?  This is an honest question, I'm not sure anyone is arguing that they will play at the top of the FA market.

BSLIanQuillen stated he believes they will. Go back a few posts. And I never stated "at the top of the free agent market"

[Mackus]

BSLIanQuillen stated he believes they will. Go back a few posts. And I never stated "at the top of the free agent market"

 

He said that he does not think they will return to top-10 spending, he thinks more like 15th to 20th.  For context, their Opening Day payroll ranked between 14th-to-17th from 2013 through 2018 aside from one year where it actually peaked at 10th (2017).  For 2021, 15th highest would be $125M and 20th highest would be $88M.

 

You said "impact free agents", does that not imply top or near the top of the market?  Apologies if I misinterpreted.  The only really big deals I can see them giving out would be to their own guys and even that would be rare.  Nobody on the current roster looks anywhere near the type of massive deals that the superstars get now. I guess if Mullins keeps this up, a 900 OPS CF entering his Age 30 season would easily get something like 8/$200M if not more.  For free agents I could see them going after 3rd tier guys who get deals in the 3-5 year range for $15-20M a year.  Mancini and Means but from other teams, and even then I'd be pretty surprised if they sign more than one guy like that every few years.

[makoman]

BSLIanQuillen stated he believes they will. Go back a few posts. And I never stated "at the top of the free agent market"

He said a 15-20 payroll. If you don't think that's possible we all might as well give up now.

[Slidemaster]

Nelson Cruz? Free agent signing who led the league in HR for a team that went to the ALCS.

Wasn't Cruz coming off a PED suspension and nobody wanted him into February? O's signed him to 1/8 in a "prove it" deal as I recall.

Was he an impact signing? Absolutely. But, was he expected to be, or did he require any significant investment? No.

[bmore_ken]

Wasn't Cruz coming off a PED suspension and nobody wanted him into February? O's signed him to 1/8 in a "prove it" deal as I recall.

Was he an impact signing? Absolutely. But, was he expected to be, or did he require any significant investment? No.

Exactly what I said in a previous post, they got him at a bargain price, but it when it came to resign him at a non bargain price they declined. Exactly the way the O's front office does business. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Wasn't Cruz coming off a PED suspension and nobody wanted him into February? O's signed him to 1/8 in a "prove it" deal as I recall.

Was he an impact signing? Absolutely. But, was he expected to be, or did he require any significant investment? No.

 

He asked about impact free agents, so I named an impact free agent. 

[bmore_ken]

He said that he does not think they will return to top-10 spending, he thinks more like 15th to 20th.  For context, their Opening Day payroll ranked between 14th-to-17th from 2013 through 2018 aside from one year where it actually peaked at 10th (2017).  For 2021, 15th highest would be $125M and 20th highest would be $88M.

 

You said "impact free agents", does that not imply top or near the top of the market?  Apologies if I misinterpreted.  The only really big deals I can see them giving out would be to their own guys and even that would be rare.  Nobody on the current roster looks anywhere near the type of massive deals that the superstars get now. I guess if Mullins keeps this up, a 900 OPS CF entering his Age 30 season would easily get something like 8/$200M if not more.  For free agents I could see them going after 3rd tier guys who get deals in the 3-5 year range for $15-20M a year.  Mancini and Means but from other teams, and even then I'd be pretty surprised if they sign more than one guy like that every few years.

His exact words were  " If the farm system is at a level where you're satisfied with the talent level -- which I think is true now -- and the major league club takes a big jump to 75 wins or so next year (which I think is more realistic than others might), then it makes a lot more sense to begin spending on the big league club. "Just because the club is being extremely cheap now, I don't think that will occur forever. " 

I merely disagree that anything in relation to putting money into impact free agents will occur any time soon. If you disagree that's totally fine. As far as my impact free agent comment goes, if he wasn't about animpact free agent, but rather was  talking about a mid tier SP, or an average veteran IF or OF at some point to fill in a hole the minors couldn't fix, then I stand corrected. I don't think this front office will make any meaningful outside additions to this team any time soon, regardless of how confident they get in the farm system. 

[Slidemaster]

He asked about impact free agents, so I named an impact free agent.

I mean...I guess. Feels like a "gotcha!" kind of reply, since it seemed pretty clear to me that his point was that it's difficult to remember the O's signing a FA who was expected to deliver high end production, and who was considered a top FA or who had competition for his services.

It's kind of like claiming that McPhail was a master negotiator and trade artist for acquiring Melvin Mora, when Mora wasn't even the player he was targeting.

For me, the last true big time FA the Orioles signed was Miguel Tejada.

[Mike B]

I mean...I guess. Feels like a "gotcha!" kind of reply, since it seemed pretty clear to me that his point was that it's difficult to remember the O's signing a FA who was expected to deliver high end production, and who was considered a top FA or who had competition for his services.

It's kind of like claiming that McPhail was a master negotiator and trade artist for acquiring Melvin Mora, when Mora wasn't even the player he was targeting.

For me, the last true big time FA the Orioles signed was Miguel Tejada.

McPhail did not acquire Mora.  That was Syd Thrift

[Slidemaster]

McPhail did not acquire Mora. That was Syd Thrift

Damn. It was, wasn't it?

I'm getting old.

[Mike B]

Damn. It was, wasn't it?

I'm getting old.

I already got there,  don’t feel bad, it beats the alternative.

[weird-O]

His exact words were  " If the farm system is at a level where you're satisfied with the talent level -- which I think is true now -- and the major league club takes a big jump to 75 wins or so next year (which I think is more realistic than others might), then it makes a lot more sense to begin spending on the big league club. "Just because the club is being extremely cheap now, I don't think that will occur forever. " 

I merely disagree that anything in relation to putting money into impact free agents will occur any time soon. If you disagree that's totally fine. As far as my impact free agent comment goes, if he wasn't about animpact free agent, but rather was  talking about a mid tier SP, or an average veteran IF or OF at some point to fill in a hole the minors couldn't fix, then I stand corrected. I don't think this front office will make any meaningful outside additions to this team any time soon, regardless of how confident they get in the farm system. 

This is how I feel. I see a lot of optimism on this board. Lots of confidence that this is a new Angelos ownership group, and things will be different this time. I guess they're just eternal optimists. They're not going to pony up for a Kershaw, or a Trout. They're never going to shop in that district, no matter how strong a farm system and how low their existing payroll is, or how poised they are to get a ring. These guys are always gonna shop at Ollie's and 5 Below.   

[BSLChrisStoner]

This is how I feel. I see a lot of optimism on this board. Lots of confidence that this is a new Angelos ownership group, and things will be different this time. I guess they're just eternal optimists. They're not going to pony up for a Kershaw, or a Trout. They're never going to shop in that district, no matter how strong a farm system and how low their existing payroll is, or how poised they are to get a ring. These guys are always gonna shop at Ollie's and 5 Below.   

I'm not expecting them to shop Rodeo Drive.  I'm expecting them add a piece or two from Banana Republic. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

This is how I feel. I see a lot of optimism on this board. Lots of confidence that this is a new Angelos ownership group, and things will be different this time. I guess they're just eternal optimists. They're not going to pony up for a Kershaw, or a Trout. They're never going to shop in that district, no matter how strong a farm system and how low their existing payroll is, or how poised they are to get a ring. These guys are always gonna shop at Ollie's and 5 Below.

Can only speak for myself but I have more confidence in Elias. Not as much the ownership. Still, I think its possible if we build a great farm we can churn out consistent MLB players and supplement a bit through FA.

[Mackus]

This is how I feel. I see a lot of optimism on this board. Lots of confidence that this is a new Angelos ownership group, and things will be different this time. I guess they're just eternal optimists. They're not going to pony up for a Kershaw, or a Trout. They're never going to shop in that district, no matter how strong a farm system and how low their existing payroll is, or how poised they are to get a ring. These guys are always gonna shop at Ollie's and 5 Below.   

 

Maybe it's just perspective and interpretation of various posts, but I don't see the same optimism you do regarding financial commitment.  I don't think I've seen anyone suggest they are going to do things better/differently than in the past.  The most optimistic outlooks I've seen, which is probably Stoner, is that they will be able to get back to spending like they did in the mid-2010s when they were good.  That's $125-150M range on total payroll.

 

That sounds reasonable to me.  And matches my expectations.  My major concern is that the money will only be doled out piecemeal whenever ownership feels like they're getting a bargain on some guy, exactly like it was during that period and all previous periods.  That's a stupid way to conduct business, but that's how the Angelos family does it.  It'd be far more likely for Elias or any GM to build a competitive team if he knows the budget ahead of time and can spend up to that limit as he sees fit.  But we all know that that is not how the organization operates.  There is no set budget.  There is simply a yes/no requisition process for each possible move.