131 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Neither happens, IMO.  Neither really needs to.  Trey isn't Manny.  It's not possible for him to get too expensive for even the cheap ass Orioles after next season.  Even if he finishes really strongly and then has a 2019-esque season next year, he's not gonna cost more than about 4/$60M as a free agent.  5/$85M max.  If that's too expensive, then he's already too expensive as someone looking primed for about $12M or so per year (for FA years, less in 2022 obviously).

 

I'd very much be in support of an extension for him.  But I can't agree that the 3rd option of "do nothing, revisit later" isn't a perfectly acceptable route to take right now.  It wasn't with Manny.  He absolutely should have been signed years earlier.  I'd have been waving a contract in his face as he was coming out of anesthesia after his first knee injury.

But what value is there in waiting? His trade value is at its highest right now if that's the tact you wanted to go. The longer you wait to extend him the costlier its going to get if that's the tact you wanted to take. If you think his performance isn't sustainable to near what he is doing now then you probably don't want to extend hi anyway so trade hi now to get the best value.

 

Just trying to understand what is to be gained by waiting?

[Mackus]

But what value is there in waiting? His trade value is at its highest right now if that's the tact you wanted to go. The longer you wait to extend him the costlier its going to get if that's the tact you wanted to take. If you think his performance isn't sustainable to near what he is doing now then you probably don't want to extend hi anyway so trade hi now to get the best value.

 

Just trying to understand what is to be gained by waiting?

 

You get to keep him on the team without having to deal him for a mediocre return (if that's all he's currently worth) or commit major dollars to him long term.

 

I don't think the trade return goes down all that much from now to the offseason to next July.  Less, for sure, but the degree is very minor.  Similarly, I don't think the cost to extend him changes all that much if you wait another year or year and a half, even if he has a great season you're only talking a couple million a year and maybe one more year committed.  Saving money is good, but paying Trey $16M vice $13M will not impact anything else the Orioles ever want to do.

 

If you're open to trading him and get an offer you like, go ahead.  Similarly if you can get him to agree to a deal you like, then do that.  If neither case presents itself I'll decide to wait rather than either trade him for less than I want or extend him for more than I want (taking back less in trade the more worrisome route).

 

I'd be shocked if anyone offers the type of trade package I'd want for Trey.  Not at all shocked if Trey would accept the type of extension I'd offer, but would indeed be shocked if the Orioles offer it.

[makoman]

But what value is there in waiting? His trade value is at its highest right now if that's the tact you wanted to go. The longer you wait to extend him the costlier its going to get if that's the tact you wanted to take. If you think his performance isn't sustainable to near what he is doing now then you probably don't want to extend hi anyway so trade hi now to get the best value.

Just trying to understand what is to be gained by waiting?

Of course if you are going to trade him the sooner the better.

If you’re planning to extend him, there’s certainly no guarantee IMO that he gets costlier if you wait. Yes if he rebounds to 2019 and stays there through next year he may be more expensive, but if he stays where he is now he may not be. 900 OPS and 790 OPS 1b are quite different and you can use this year to see which is the outlier.

You can also use that time to really nail down how long you want to extend. Maybe he’s declining a bit by next September and you decide 2-3 years instead of the 5 you might have done today. More info is better especially when, I hate to say it, his body has been through a lot the past 1.5 years, and he’ll be 30 next year.

[Slidemaster]

It depends on what they get back.

If they're just going to get mid-level prospects or lottery tickets, I don't see the point of the trade. They can get guys like that with their first round picks.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So Trey has one more year of service time than Cruz and is a comparable bat but quite honestly still a step below. Yes, he can play 1b while Cruz cant. That makes him available to NL teams. So how much if any more valuable is the service time and 1b eligibility vs Cruz.

[dude]

Why is Trey a DH first and 1B second? I don't agree with that. He's perfectly acceptable defensively at 1B. Even could be used in LF in a pinch.

 

Defensively, I think it's fine, but they've discussed on recent broadcasts (others?) that he's OPSing around .700 as a 1B and .930 as a DH.

 

One might have nothing to do with the other, but if you wanted to look at offense at, not just defense at....that could be a consideration.

 

NL will have a DH next year so it can work for an NL team that has a start player out for the year in RF.

[dude]

I don't think Sulser gets traded.

 

I think Santander is the obvious omission from the article.  If you go back a little, when Santander was hot coming back, there was a comment that the Orioles asking price was significant for him in trade.  He's really struggled since, and I don't know how you make an argument for whatever because, as has been pointed out, he's a possible non-tender candidate today.

 

If I'm the Indians or Cardinals, I still like him.  He's clearly struggled and you can likely get him cheaper now so buy low and see what happens.  Still upside you don't really have to pay for...still have 3 years of control.  

[dude]

I think Fry, Scott and Mancini get traded.

 

I think Rizzo goes to Boston.

 

Means is an odd case and his injury has certainly changed the dynamics from the 2nd week of May.  Really hasn't pitched very good since, but he was one of the best pitchers in the Game in a modest window.  Someone still wants him, but he may need more season to re-establish the same perception of value.  Off-season trade would be more likely in terms of trade now.

[dude]

Nelson Cruz was traded to the Rays today.  Cruz was considered a favorite to go help solve some of the As issues.

 

Mancini to OAK could be a fit. 

 

I'd move CLE down with MIL maybe being the best fit.

 

ATL would be there for me too.

 

So....MIL > OAK > ATL

[jamesdean]

You get to keep him on the team without having to deal him for a mediocre return (if that's all he's currently worth) or commit major dollars to him long term.

 

I don't think the trade return goes down all that much from now to the offseason to next July.  Less, for sure, but the degree is very minor.  Similarly, I don't think the cost to extend him changes all that much if you wait another year or year and a half, even if he has a great season you're only talking a couple million a year and maybe one more year committed.  Saving money is good, but paying Trey $16M vice $13M will not impact anything else the Orioles ever want to do.

 

If you're open to trading him and get an offer you like, go ahead.  Similarly if you can get him to agree to a deal you like, then do that.  If neither case presents itself I'll decide to wait rather than either trade him for less than I want or extend him for more than I want (taking back less in trade the more worrisome route).

 

I'd be shocked if anyone offers the type of trade package I'd want for Trey.  Not at all shocked if Trey would accept the type of extension I'd offer, but would indeed be shocked if the Orioles offer it.

I agree.  Not to sound cold hearted but Mancini is coming off a year of cancer treatment and his long term viability for a team is questionable at best.  Hopefully, there's never a recurrence of the disease and he'll have several more productive years as a player. But that's assuming a lot and while he's still a good player, I doubt his return on a trade would satisfy the Oriole brass.  Just extend the guy.  He's popular, he's a feel good story, his teammates love him and he's still a productive hitter that will give you 25-30 homeruns a year and drive in about 100.  

[dude]

With Galvis coming back next week (broadcast tonight), the A's really need some help at SS too.

[BSLChrisStoner]

With Galvis coming back next week (broadcast tonight), the A's really need some help at SS too.

Yeah that's my fault. Matt had Galvis in his article orginally but I didn't think Galvis would be ready.

[Mike B]

I think the A’s or anyone might want to see him play a few games.  It is going to be close.

we are not likely to get anything but we have done those type deals before.

[Mackus]

I think he's tradable. Also just a reminder that there isn't actually any rule against trading injured players. He won't bring anything interesting back, but they can probably dump the remaining $350k or whatever it is.

[dude]

I think the A’s or anyone might want to see him play a few games.  It is going to be close.

we are not likely to get anything but we have done those type deals before.

 

He'd be a throw in at this point.

 

What would you expect to get back from a Mancini-Galvis package?

 

?: Jeff Criswell (RHP), Kyle McCann (C ) and Hogan Harris (LHP)

[dude]

This was interesting....25 Players and Trade Predictions and none of the Orioles were mentioned.

[RichardZ]

When they talk about Orioles trades they don't happen. When you don't hear anything, that's when something happens.

[IanQuillen]

A couple other people touched on some of the value you get by waiting, but the other thing you may get is a better sense of how long you're really looking at until trying to compete. I don't think this team is competitive next season, but I think there is this sense we're in this slog for another five years and I don't think that's true. 

If the farm system is at a level where you're satisfied with the talent level -- which I think is true now -- and the major league club takes a big jump to 75 wins or so next year (which I think is more realistic than others might), then it makes a lot more sense to begin spending on the big league club. Because you figure you'll get an additional 2-5 wins from maturation of young talent in 2023, and it's a lot easier to push a club from 80 wins to 90-95 by spending. Not breaking the bank, but targeted FA signings.

Just because the club is being extremely cheap now, I don't think that will occur forever. I don't think it will return to top 10 spending but 15-20 is reasonable if you also have a good farm system to make up the difference.

TL/DR, you could sign Mancini to a fair deal with much less trepidation in 2022 if you're more confident 2023 is a year you want to at least be in the Wild Card mix.
 

But what value is there in waiting? His trade value is at its highest right now if that's the tact you wanted to go. The longer you wait to extend him the costlier its going to get if that's the tact you wanted to take. If you think his performance isn't sustainable to near what he is doing now then you probably don't want to extend hi anyway so trade hi now to get the best value.

 

Just trying to understand what is to be gained by waiting?

[bmore_ken]

A couple other people touched on some of the value you get by waiting, but the other thing you may get is a better sense of how long you're really looking at until trying to compete. I don't think this team is competitive next season, but I think there is this sense we're in this slog for another five years and I don't think that's true. 

If the farm system is at a level where you're satisfied with the talent level -- which I think is true now -- and the major league club takes a big jump to 75 wins or so next year (which I think is more realistic than others might), then it makes a lot more sense to begin spending on the big league club. Because you figure you'll get an additional 2-5 wins from maturation of young talent in 2023, and it's a lot easier to push a club from 80 wins to 90-95 by spending. Not breaking the bank, but targeted FA signings.Just because the club is being extremely cheap now, I don't think that will occur forever. I don't think it will return to top 10 spending but 15-20 is reasonable if you also have a good farm system to make up the difference.

TL/DR, you could sign Mancini to a fair deal with much less trepidation in 2022 if you're more confident 2023 is a year you want to at least be in the Wild Card mix.
 

When is the last time this team spent serious money? The 90's? Pardon me if I'm a little skeptical on that point. 

[BobPhelan]

When is the last time this team spent serious money? The 90's? Pardon me if I'm a little skeptical on that point.

$143M just three years ago. 10th highest in baseball at $163.5M in 2017.