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Trade thoughts: Means


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#21 DuffMan

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Posted 12 May 2021 - 08:09 AM

He's under team control for 3 more years, are we not expected to be contending in that time?  If so than it seems like a guy like Means could help us to win some games.  If we aren't expected to be contending within the next 3 years then I have major concerns about Elias as the GM.  At some point enough is enough and I'll let Captain Picard take it from here....

 


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#22 weird-O

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Posted 12 May 2021 - 10:49 AM

He's under team control for 3 more years, are we not expected to be contending in that time?  If so than it seems like a guy like Means could help us to win some games.  If we aren't expected to be contending within the next 3 years then I have major concerns about Elias as the GM.  At some point enough is enough and I'll let Captain Picard take it from here....

While we're technically in the 3rd season of the rebuild, we're really only 1.5 years into it, due to Elias being hired too late to fully act on the 2019 season, and then losing the entire 2020 MiLB season to Covid. Barring an amazing fast track result by Elias, Means is probably gone before the O's actually become a competitive team. This is why Slidemaster's idea of buying out his arb. years and adding 2 FA years is logical. If they don't do that, there's no reason to not listen to offers. But I also think the no hitter made O's fans lose their minds and clear perspective. Means is dazzling right now. But there's not enough of a track record to make a GM open the gates to their farm system and tell Elias to pick everything he wants. 

 

disclaimer: No one on this board has expresses this. But there are a lot of O's fans that seem to think we have a HOF pitcher in Means, and that he'd fetch a massive return.     


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#23 Mike B

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Posted 12 May 2021 - 10:56 AM

They've made inconsequential moves to save money when they can't compete. Not at all equivalent to giving away a controllable productive asset to be done with Davis.

I agree, giving away Means to clear the Davis contract, would be all she wrote for me.

 

It is not going to happen, IMO.

 

No big surprise, but trading Means, Mancini and Santander for kids a year or two down the road, would piss me off too.  It is time to start adding to the major league team.  IMO, they have use the rebuild phase to its extent.  It is time to get back to the business of trying to win.


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#24 ivanbalt

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Posted 12 May 2021 - 10:57 AM

While we're technically in the 3rd season of the rebuild, we're really only 1.5 years into it, due to Elias being hired too late to fully act on the 2019 season, and then losing the entire 2020 MiLB season to Covid. Barring an amazing fast track result by Elias, Means is probably gone before the O's actually become a competitive team. This is why Slidemaster's idea of buying out his arb. years and adding 2 FA years is logical. If they don't do that, there's no reason to not listen to offers. But I also think the no hitter made O's fans lose their minds and clear perspective. Means is dazzling right now. But there's not enough of a track record to make a GM open the gates to their farm system and tell Elias to pick everything he wants. 

 

disclaimer: No one on this board has expresses this. But there are a lot of O's fans that seem to think we have a HOF pitcher in Means, and that he'd fetch a massive return.     


Complete games are so rare for an Orioles pitcher that a no-hitter feels like HOF.  :lol:


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#25 IanQuillen

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Posted 12 May 2021 - 02:30 PM

This is an overly pessimistic timeline for me, unless your baseline for "being competitive" is "fielding a legitimate World Series contender."

Given what I'm currently seeing on the field, especially in terms of pitching, I think there's every reason to EXPECT to be in at least the playoff conversation by 2023, which would be Means' Arb 2 season. 
 

While we're technically in the 3rd season of the rebuild, we're really only 1.5 years into it, due to Elias being hired too late to fully act on the 2019 season, and then losing the entire 2020 MiLB season to Covid. Barring an amazing fast track result by Elias, Means is probably gone before the O's actually become a competitive team. This is why Slidemaster's idea of buying out his arb. years and adding 2 FA years is logical. If they don't do that, there's no reason to not listen to offers. But I also think the no hitter made O's fans lose their minds and clear perspective. Means is dazzling right now. But there's not enough of a track record to make a GM open the gates to their farm system and tell Elias to pick everything he wants. 

 

disclaimer: No one on this board has expresses this. But there are a lot of O's fans that seem to think we have a HOF pitcher in Means, and that he'd fetch a massive return.     


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#26 weird-O

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 02:05 PM

This is an overly pessimistic timeline for me, unless your baseline for "being competitive" is "fielding a legitimate World Series contender."

Given what I'm currently seeing on the field, especially in terms of pitching, I think there's every reason to EXPECT to be in at least the playoff conversation by 2023, which would be Means' Arb 2 season. 
 

I like your positivity. But I'm going to ask you to give something of a definition to the phrase "in the playoff picture". Because that terminology offers lots of leeway. A team could qualify as being in the playoff picture, if they finished 3 games out of the lowest WC seed (which figures to be increased from 2 to 4 for the '22 season). But that wouldn't mean they were a genuine playoff contender. it would just mean that they weren't an absolute "also ran". So if the '23 season sees them 3 games (and possibly 2-3 teams out of the lowest seed) that would mean they would have to make significant improvements heading into '24 (Means's last season before becoming a FA). If it plays out like that, the fans have a chance to see a good pitcher in Baltimore, but he'd be gone before they improved to the level of being a division winning team. That is, unless, as I mentioned before, Elias manages to fast track this franchise into a force to be reckoned with.      


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#27 Mackus

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 02:26 PM

I think this definition was pretty clear before expanded playoffs.  All the extra teams really muddies things up.  I would agree that being the tenth best team in the AL isn't much of an accomplishment or really being in the picture.

 

Before I'd have considered being within a reasonable distance at the beginning of September as being in the picture.  A handful or fewer games back of a spot.

 

Now, I'd say unless you're within a couple games of the final WC spot with a week to go, you're not really in the picture.  At least not in the sense of what we all seem to mean when we say "legit contender".  I think it might be better to use win totals, anyways.  


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#28 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 02:59 PM

If they anchor Means with Davis' contract rather than get back more talent I'll be absolutely as close as I can get to quitting. I would not actually be particularly close to that, but that move would be inexcusable and I'd loudly, harshly, and frequently criticize everyone in the organization for the remainder of their tenure. Doesn't matter what else you get in the deal. Take $25M more worth of prospects rather than lowering payroll.

I would agree, although I doubt it happens. I do have to admit though that Dude's trade fantasies are always fun to read. 


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#29 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:01 PM

They are making moves to intentionally save less than 1M.  Davis is a carrot the ownership couldn't refuse.

Why do you think the Mets would do that?



#30 bmore_ken

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:09 PM

While we're technically in the 3rd season of the rebuild, we're really only 1.5 years into it, due to Elias being hired too late to fully act on the 2019 season, and then losing the entire 2020 MiLB season to Covid. Barring an amazing fast track result by Elias, Means is probably gone before the O's actually become a competitive team. This is why Slidemaster's idea of buying out his arb. years and adding 2 FA years is logical. If they don't do that, there's no reason to not listen to offers. But I also think the no hitter made O's fans lose their minds and clear perspective. Means is dazzling right now. But there's not enough of a track record to make a GM open the gates to their farm system and tell Elias to pick everything he wants. 

 

disclaimer: No one on this board has expresses this. But there are a lot of O's fans that seem to think we have a HOF pitcher in Means, and that he'd fetch a massive return.     

I didn't see the actual game, but when I saw it on the news, I was like Oh boy , here we go again.  :mrgreen:



#31 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:47 PM

I like your positivity. But I'm going to ask you to give something of a definition to the phrase "in the playoff picture". Because that terminology offers lots of leeway. A team could qualify as being in the playoff picture, if they finished 3 games out of the lowest WC seed (which figures to be increased from 2 to 4 for the '22 season). But that wouldn't mean they were a genuine playoff contender. it would just mean that they weren't an absolute "also ran". So if the '23 season sees them 3 games (and possibly 2-3 teams out of the lowest seed) that would mean they would have to make significant improvements heading into '24 (Means's last season before becoming a FA). If it plays out like that, the fans have a chance to see a good pitcher in Baltimore, but he'd be gone before they improved to the level of being a division winning team. That is, unless, as I mentioned before, Elias manages to fast track this franchise into a force to be reckoned with.      

 

They will win 90+ in '23.



#32 dude

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 05:17 PM

Why do you think the Mets would do that?

 

Why do I think the Mets would want to trade for Means?  

 

He's probably the top player that is potentially available for an well resourced owner motived to make something happen.

 

The Mets have a good team.  Adding a dominant LHed starter for the next 3 years to pair with deGrom would be a heaedline stealing power move in a market that demands that type of energy.  There's so many reasons for Cohen to do things like this.  He's going to do something.  He'll find some real-estate to take.  I can't imagine a more rewarding move for his situation.



#33 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 05:30 PM

I think the O's could win 80+ next year.



#34 Slidemaster

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 10:01 PM

I have a very difficult time getting excited about losing the Davis contract when the team isn't going to spend money anyway.

We might as well ignore free agency in any meaningful way, and focus on acquiring as much young Talent as possible. If I'm trying to trade an emerging star pitcher, that's the only thing I'm doing it for.
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#35 dude

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 10:35 PM

I have a very difficult time getting excited about losing the Davis contract when the team isn't going to spend money anyway.

We might as well ignore free agency in any meaningful way, and focus on acquiring as much young Talent as possible. If I'm trying to trade an emerging star pitcher, that's the only thing I'm doing it for.

 

No fans would be excited about trading the davis contract.  It wouldn't be about the fans.

 

As far as prospects, they aren't random.  If you look at the top 100 guys (it's publicly listed) there isn't a team with "2 top 25 guys" to trade for.

 

You need a team both with need and AVAILABLE top prospects to make a deal.

 

Those 2 guys for the Mets are both top100.  If you wanted to argue for higher rated guys like C Fransisco Alvarez and Matt Allen (just went down for TJS), you could probably get some higher rated guys, but they would likely be less valuable (positional need, availability) to the Orioles.

 

I'm not arguing for the trade.  I think we should be trying to win, not punt, but somewhere between the Phillies and the Mets, they could likely force the Orioles hand.

 

The end result for the Orioles would be a 2022 roster with literally no cost and you are a Wander Franco promotion from having the Industry Consensus #1 MiL system.



#36 weird-O

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Posted 14 May 2021 - 07:43 AM

They will win 90+ in '23.

I hope you're right


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#37 Slidemaster

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Posted 14 May 2021 - 01:04 PM

No fans would be excited about trading the davis contract. It wouldn't be about the fans.

As far as prospects, they aren't random. If you look at the top 100 guys (it's publicly listed) there isn't a team with "2 top 25 guys" to trade for.

You need a team both with need and AVAILABLE top prospects to make a deal.

Those 2 guys for the Mets are both top100. If you wanted to argue for higher rated guys like C Fransisco Alvarez and Matt Allen (just went down for TJS), you could probably get some higher rated guys, but they would likely be less valuable (positional need, availability) to the Orioles.

I'm not arguing for the trade. I think we should be trying to win, not punt, but somewhere between the Phillies and the Mets, they could likely force the Orioles hand.

The end result for the Orioles would be a 2022 roster with literally no cost and you are a Wander Franco promotion from having the Industry Consensus #1 MiL system.


All of the money concerns you bring up need to be exempt from the consideration of the trade idea. Money only matters if you're willing to spend money.

#38 dude

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Posted 14 May 2021 - 06:34 PM

All of the money concerns you bring up need to be exempt from the consideration of the trade idea. Money only matters if you're willing to spend money.

 

I don't understand the perspective of your comment...are you referring to the Mets?



#39 Slidemaster

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Posted 17 May 2021 - 01:42 PM

I don't understand the perspective of your comment...are you referring to the Mets?


I'm saying that the idea that the Mets helping the O's out by taking the Davis contract doesn't actually help put a winning product on the field. The Orioles would not use that freed money to reinvest into the team. Ergo, I'm not interested in them pursuing that avenue for a Means trade. Instead, just give me the best farm talent he can fetch.
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#40 Mike B

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Posted 17 May 2021 - 01:43 PM

Or keep the guy, because he is pretty damn good.


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