89 replies to this topic

[dude]

I'll have to spend some time thinking of what an extension would look like.  Haven't done that.  But I'm pretty sure both sides can find a number they like.

 

While I don't think it matters from an Oriole perspective, any team adding Trey could certainly consider working on a contract longer than 2022.

 

The reality is RHed 1B bats aren't generating a lot of contract interest.  For example, a decent comp could be CJ Cron.  Since 2017 he's been on the Angels, Rays, Twins, Tigers and Rockies (a year apiece) and has been non-tendered contracts thru arbitration since the Twins.  He's actually put up good numbers, but we've seen a handful of guys like this get put back on the market.  CJ Cron, despite some success in limited PAs last year, signed a minor-league deal with the Rockies.  He's making good on that, but why - at 32 - would his contract fate be any different than it's been in recent years? He's been a FA on the market the last 2.

 

Trey is a little younger than Cron, but Cron was getting non-tendered (after a 25 hr, .780 OPS season) at the age same age.

 

Mancini offers more than Cron.  I think he's probably a more complete hitter and has some positional flexibility (even if he's not a good OFer) that Cron can't offer.  Perspective on his Leadership and story could have some perceived value at least in terms of creating an extended contract.

 

Trey probably gets something around 7.5M in ARB3 next year.  If you added 2 years at 9M apiece and included a 1M s/b and a 3.5M b/o on 12M team option(s), that's a 3/30.  That's the type of deal a MIL or CLE could handle.  If you wait for a larger payday, you might not get the chair you were hoping for when the music stops.

 

I think I said 4/40 or 5/50 a year or more ago, so that's largely the same thing accounting for some of the uncertainty of the last year+.

[BSLChrisStoner]

If it's those dollars imo there is basically no chance a deal isn't agreed. If it's 5 years $85 - $100M, I still think a deal happens.

[dude]

Turang and Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby.   Maybe still light. 

 

I sort of agree with this.  You could probably put Small, Ashby and Kelly (all LHP with different strengths) into a group and let them pick which one they give you. You get another kid outside of the top30 from the DSL.

 

Turang has bumped up the mlb.com prospect list to #82 so that's a little more interesting for the system level goal although I'm not sure he changes the projection at all.  He would certainly be capable of being the Orioles starting SS in 2022, but it's kind of 'so what'.  If 'rebuilding' gets us to Brice Turang at SS, that's sort of sad.

 

Draft picks have the Organizational advantage of bumping up the draft pool (and we know the Orioles like that) and they are all players that have a longer impact on your system rating (because they are years away)

 

So if you just looked at 3 Brewers packages versus an Indians package....for Mancini...

 

Turang, Ashby, DSL

Turang, 1-33

1-32, 1-33

Bo Naylor, 1-76

 

Those have different levels of consequence (now and later) and that feels like about the right level if they are compelled to trade him.

 

None of those are specifically altering to the win total (ever), so the most important angle for the Orioles would maybe be the ~3M and avoiding the tender deadline....but you get something to talk about in return.

[dude]

If it's those dollars imo there is basically no chance a deal isn't agreed. If it's 5 years $85 - $100M, I still think a deal happens.

 

I'd be pretty comfortable with the 'under' there.  That would seem wildly inconsistent with the market.

[BobPhelan]

I signed him to a 3/30 extension in OOTP 🤷🏼‍♂️

[dude]

Indians: If I had to pick a team today, the Indians would be it.  They have some good young pitching but need offensive help.  They are currently 28th in MLB OPS at 1B at .546. Indians aren't breaking the bank for player cost and Mancini is certainly reasonable this year and next. 

 

Indians are hanging in there at 28-23 but they are now 30th in 1B OPS and under .500 with 9 rbi.  The Franimal is also on the shelf into July so they've lost one of their best hitters for a while.

 

Nolan Jones is OPSing in the 600s and they are starting to work him in the OF. 

[Mike in STL]

Moving to Trey talk back to here since I don’t think the Padres/Hosmer thread is applicable.

I would extend him. People have said around here that you don’t get top prospects in trade anymore (see: Machado trade). We aren’t trading Mancini for a major league ready bat or arm with upside (Adam Jones circa 2008, Walker Buehler circa 2018). Any trade will involve guys we’re gonna have to wait and see on, and will likely be outside our top-10 prospects when they get here.

I’d rather have Mancini even after age 30. He just turned 29, BTW. Assuming guys decline after their 30th birthday is a poor practice. There are plenty of over 30 players who are major role players on teams way way better than the Orioles.

I’d do 5 years, his AAV is probably around $14M (not really sure). Less than Rizzo who made $16.5M this year. Trey comps to Rizzo with the bat but not the glove or base running. But I want his bat in the lineup everyday. 5/$70M. Maybe team option after the 4th year.

Doesn’t break the bank. Isn’t outrageous. Isn’t an amount that makes him impossible to trade if it isn’t working out (Davis).

Rather get the deal done this year as he’ll be able to test FA next year. If he has a massive 2022 and the O’s start getting better, home town discounts aren’t a thing and the O’s could get cheap, and let their top bat walk out the door right when they are supposed to make their push toward 90 wins in 2023? Doesn’t sound like a good idea.

He’s a good player in his prime. He’s a fan favorite. He’s a team leader. Just do it. Build. Stop tearing down.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

What Mike said!

[bmore_ken]

Moving to Trey talk back to here since I don’t think the Padres/Hosmer thread is applicable.

I would extend him. People have said around here that you don’t get top prospects in trade anymore (see: Machado trade). We aren’t trading Mancini for a major league ready bat or arm with upside (Adam Jones circa 2008, Walker Buehler circa 2018). Any trade will involve guys we’re gonna have to wait and see on, and will likely be outside our top-10 prospects when they get here.

I’d rather have Mancini even after age 30. He just turned 29, BTW. Assuming guys decline after their 30th birthday is a poor practice. There are plenty of over 30 players who are major role players on teams way way better than the Orioles.

I’d do 5 years, his AAV is probably around $14M (not really sure). Less than Rizzo who made $16.5M this year. Trey comps to Rizzo with the bat but not the glove or base running. But I want his bat in the lineup everyday. 5/$70M. Maybe team option after the 4th year.

Doesn’t break the bank. Isn’t outrageous. Isn’t an amount that makes him impossible to trade if it isn’t working out (Davis).

Rather get the deal done this year as he’ll be able to test FA next year. If he has a massive 2022 and the O’s start getting better, home town discounts aren’t a thing and the O’s could get cheap, and let their top bat walk out the door right when they are supposed to make their push toward 90 wins in 2023? Doesn’t sound like a good idea.

He’s a good player in his prime. He’s a fan favorite. He’s a team leader. Just do it. Build. Stop tearing down.

Amen to all that brother. 

[Mike B]

Moving to Trey talk back to here since I don’t think the Padres/Hosmer thread is applicable.

I would extend him. People have said around here that you don’t get top prospects in trade anymore (see: Machado trade). We aren’t trading Mancini for a major league ready bat or arm with upside (Adam Jones circa 2008, Walker Buehler circa 2018). Any trade will involve guys we’re gonna have to wait and see on, and will likely be outside our top-10 prospects when they get here.

I’d rather have Mancini even after age 30. He just turned 29, BTW. Assuming guys decline after their 30th birthday is a poor practice. There are plenty of over 30 players who are major role players on teams way way better than the Orioles.

I’d do 5 years, his AAV is probably around $14M (not really sure). Less than Rizzo who made $16.5M this year. Trey comps to Rizzo with the bat but not the glove or base running. But I want his bat in the lineup everyday. 5/$70M. Maybe team option after the 4th year.

Doesn’t break the bank. Isn’t outrageous. Isn’t an amount that makes him impossible to trade if it isn’t working out (Davis).

Rather get the deal done this year as he’ll be able to test FA next year. If he has a massive 2022 and the O’s start getting better, home town discounts aren’t a thing and the O’s could get cheap, and let their top bat walk out the door right when they are supposed to make their push toward 90 wins in 2023? Doesn’t sound like a good idea.

He’s a good player in his prime. He’s a fan favorite. He’s a team leader. Just do it. Build. Stop tearing down.

You nailed it.  

[hallas]

Moving to Trey talk back to here since I don’t think the Padres/Hosmer thread is applicable.

I would extend him. People have said around here that you don’t get top prospects in trade anymore (see: Machado trade). We aren’t trading Mancini for a major league ready bat or arm with upside (Adam Jones circa 2008, Walker Buehler circa 2018). Any trade will involve guys we’re gonna have to wait and see on, and will likely be outside our top-10 prospects when they get here.

I’d rather have Mancini even after age 30. He just turned 29, BTW. Assuming guys decline after their 30th birthday is a poor practice. There are plenty of over 30 players who are major role players on teams way way better than the Orioles.

I’d do 5 years, his AAV is probably around $14M (not really sure). Less than Rizzo who made $16.5M this year. Trey comps to Rizzo with the bat but not the glove or base running. But I want his bat in the lineup everyday. 5/$70M. Maybe team option after the 4th year.

Doesn’t break the bank. Isn’t outrageous. Isn’t an amount that makes him impossible to trade if it isn’t working out (Davis).

Rather get the deal done this year as he’ll be able to test FA next year. If he has a massive 2022 and the O’s start getting better, home town discounts aren’t a thing and the O’s could get cheap, and let their top bat walk out the door right when they are supposed to make their push toward 90 wins in 2023? Doesn’t sound like a good idea.

He’s a good player in his prime. He’s a fan favorite. He’s a team leader. Just do it. Build. Stop tearing down.

What about him makes you think he's going to age well? He is a bit of a TTO player (but not extreme.) He plays a position that demands a lot out of his bat, so any faltering offensively will tank his value. He's not particularly fast. These are all marks against him when it comes to age related loss of ability. I'm not saying he can't beat the aging curve, but if there's something about his profile that makes you think he will age well I would like to understand what that is.

FYI I'm aware he's 29 but since he would be 30 when he is a free agent, I'm considering the point where we guarantee additional years to be the starting point of the contract.

That said, I'm reconsidering my stance a bit because apparently even in post-pandemic baseball the cost of a free agent win is pretty high. I think that if he'd actually sign a 4 year deal, I probably prefer 4/56 if we had to sign him. Another wrench in this whole thing is the fact that Kjerstad has health problems. If he were in AA or even A+ and raking I'd be much more inclined to let Mancini walk.

[Old Man]

How they handle Mancini will go a long way in telling me, are they rebuilding or pretender.

[Mike in STL]

What about him makes you think he's going to age well? He is a bit of a TTO player (but not extreme.) He plays a position that demands a lot out of his bat, so any faltering offensively will tank his value. He's not particularly fast. These are all marks against him when it comes to age related loss of ability. I'm not saying he can't beat the aging curve, but if there's something about his profile that makes you think he will age well I would like to understand what that is.

FYI I'm aware he's 29 but since he would be 30 when he is a free agent, I'm considering the point where we guarantee additional years to be the starting point of the contract.

That said, I'm reconsidering my stance a bit because apparently even in post-pandemic baseball the cost of a free agent win is pretty high. I think that if he'd actually sign a 4 year deal, I probably prefer 4/56 if we had to sign him. Another wrench in this whole thing is the fact that Kjerstad has health problems. If he were in AA or even A+ and raking I'd be much more inclined to let Mancini walk.

Gut feeling. I don't think there is a profile that predicts what a guy is going to do in the future. The last three seasons his K% has gone down and BB% gone up. He'll be 30 June of next year but won't have the milage of other over 30 guys having not played in 2020, and not getting called up until very late in 2016. Other than cancer keeping him out of 2020, he's been durable, reliable. 

 

Kjerstad wouldn't factor into my decision about Mancini, even if he was tearing it up. He'll play outfield when/if he's ever a major leaguer (not a knock on him, can't predict heart problems, and his life is more important), and while I'm stoked about what Mullins is doing, it's kinda outta no where, and I'd like to see if it continues into next year. Santander is expendable, expect Hays to take the next step.

 

Orioles should be giving reps to Mountcastle at MI positions while the season doesn't matter, and Valaika, Wilkerson, etc...are not major leaguers. Just incase Hays, Mullins, Stewart, Santander, Mancini, are all healthy and producing at the same time. Stewart would be my DH. Hays in LF, Mullins in CF, Santander in RF, Mancini at 1B. Mountcastle at 2B/SS. I don't think they every truly looked at Mountcastle at SS or 2B and thats what he was drafted as. 

 

If in month it's clear Mountcastle isn't a MI, then it would still be Stewart or Santander that are expandable before Mancini. Talk about future profiles, Stewart seems like the one to fall off a cliff because he's a fat body. I can say that, because I am too

 

If Mountcastle is a power hitting MI, a 2B that hits 35 bombs, then it picks up the offense you think your first baseman needs to provide if Mancini is only a 20 HR a year guy in a couple years. Or Rutschman being a power hitting catcher for that matter since the Mountcastle playing MI is pipe dream.

[BaltBird 24]

I'd like to see Mountcastle play SS for a couple of months just to see how disastrous it could be.

[makoman]

They gave Mountcastle every opportunity to stick at SS. He played 39 games there in 2015 in the GCL/Aberdeen after being drafted, 105 games there in 2016 at Delmarva, and 82 games there in 2017 at Frederick. They also definitely tried 3B, he played 37 games there in 2017 at Bowie, then 81 games there in 2018 at Bowie, then 9 games there in 2019 at Norfolk. Sure he didn't try 2B, but I'm pretty certain if they thought it was possible at all they would have tried that before 1B/LF because the team knows just as well as we do that his bat would play much better there. I imagine his play at SS and 3B gave them enough evidence about that not being worthwhile and a month at the ML level won't tell us otherwise. I know the spectrum is not what it used to be but 2B is still I think considered more difficult than 3B, which they gave up on.

[Mackus]

Please retract the "Mountcastle at SS" part, Mike.  It makes it really hard to focus on any of the other thoughts and ideas you're discussing

 

Mountcastle auditioning as a 2B is an idea worth considering, though I think likely that ship has sailed.  There is likely a reason they (including multiple coordinators) never moved him there in the minors.  But playing at SS is a Sam Darnold idea.  Might as well let him try pitching!

[jamesdean]

I'd like to see Mountcastle play SS for a couple of months just to see how disastrous it could be.

Can't be any worse than the collection of fielding hacks they serve up every day.  

[Mike B]

I'd like to see Mountcastle play SS for a couple of months just to see how disastrous it could be.

Not me.  Right now, besides Mullins, he is the best young player we have,  IMO, he is someone, that could be here and be successful for a long time.  I think, they need to keep playing him at first base.  

[Mike B]

How they handle Mancini will go a long way in telling me, are they rebuilding or pretender.

Me too.  I think they are serious about the rebuild, but I do not see any sense of urgency, or concern on just how many baseball seasons they can crap on.

[Old Man]

Can't be any worse than the collection of fielding hacks they serve up every day.  

Yet so far, not as bad as 2008, when they ran 5 bodies out there that were disaster waiting to happen.