89 replies to this topic

[dude]

I'm a big fan of Trey and his story, even before last season, was a good one.  Never really a top prospect, earned his way into the lineup, took advantage of opportunity playing OF or whatever to stick around.

 

My preference would be to extend him for a number of reasons, but this isn't really about what I'd do.

 

Last season created a challenge where you really need to see him back in an Oriole uniform and he's accomplished that in spades.  He'll continue to get his timing and produce good or better numbers.  If he is anything around an .800 OPS this year he likely gets something in the 7M range in arbitration. 

 

My guess is that's not going to work for the Orioles and puts them in the uncomfortable box of having to trade him.  The can't non-tender him (that would be wildly outraged) and if you wait to trade him in the offseason and it's apparent you're trading him, you can't even leverage value.

 

The best option is to trade him sooner than later.  You save the most money and if you can find some need today, maybe you can leverage some in-season value.

 

We've already seen the Oriole beat writers float this trial balloon and that's likely pretty intentional on their part.  Most people are pretty accepting of a trade consideration, you do it under the mantra of continuing to build pieces and make the easy argument that pushing Trey into a playoff race is good for him too.

 

The question becomes when, who and for what more than if.

 

WHERE: I always start with need and HERE is the current MLB 1B by OPS.  Kind of funny from the Mountcastle discussion, but most of the bottom of the list is the better teams.  Not all of them would be in the market for help.

 

WHEN: well, it's before the trade deadline, but I'd argue that earlier might be better.  'Get a good look at some other players that may contribute to the future' and 'let Mountcastle run at 1B for the rest of the season'.  Ultimately, the earlier you move him, the better off the Orioles would be from the optics (get it over with) and cost (sooner is more savings) angles.

 

WHAT: People may want a big haul, but RHed 1B with a year+ of service aren't really the 'give up the farm' type deals.  

[dude]

Nationals: I've discussed them for a couple years.  He would have actually (in theory) helped the Orioles by helping the Nationals, but they wouldn't appear to be an in-season option.  If you can't make an in-season deal, they could be a destination for something to make the transaction happen.  Bell hasn't been good for them and he could be non-tendered, but if he bounces back to normal, they'd just keep him. 

 

Probably need the NL DH (new CBA) in the offseason to open up some opportunities and if you wanted to argue for that angle, OK, but you could wind up getting backed into a deal and you had to pay out 2021 to get there.

[dude]

Indians: If I had to pick a team today, the Indians would be it.  They have some good young pitching but need offensive help.  They are currently 28th in MLB OPS at 1B at .546. Indians aren't breaking the bank for player cost and Mancini is certainly reasonable this year and next. 

 

The Indians could use an outfielder too.  They have 3 guys OPSing in the .600s plus Luplow has been pretty good, but they've struggled in the OF in recent years and haven't really produced a good everyday, reliable OF. Santander has 3 years of service left through arbitration so good cost-service control for a team like the Indians (good for anyone, required for them)

 

A Mancini-Santander package would be significant offensively and defensively for them.

 

I'd try and head one of 2 ways with the package depending on what the Indians preferred.

 

Nolan Jones - Bobby Bradley

or

Bo Naylor - Josh Naylor

 

Jones is their top prospect (mlb.com #30) but they're still playing him at 3B and they have Ramirez for several more reasonably costed seasons.  If they want to move him over to 1B, ok, but I'd expand the deal to get him.  Orioles should have drafted Jones when they had the chance. If they balk at that, then...

 

Bo Naylor is an interesting guy in that the bat quality could push him out from behind the plate as a fulltime catcher.  Could actually be interesting for Baltimore as the DH and catching compliment to Rutschman in the future.  Naylor entered the back of mlb.com rankings at #99.  Josh Naylor would be similar to Stewart (LHed COF bat) but with more 1B experience. This could be light for the Orioles so maybe you do something more like Mancini and Stewart for Naylor and Naylor.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Previous discussion:

https://forum.baltim...cini-situation/

[BSLChrisStoner]

We've already seen the Oriole beat writers float this trial balloon and that's likely pretty intentional on their part. Most people are pretty accepting of a trade consideration, you do it under the mantra of continuing to build pieces and make the easy argument that pushing Trey into a playoff race is good for him too.

Are you saying the beat writers are floating the trial balloon of trading Mancini for the benefit of the Orioles?

You think that makes more sense vs. the idea that he is a FA after '22, coming off a season lost to cancer, and at 29 - he's a bit older than the rest of your coming core? I mean, it's just a logical question to ask if the Orioles are going to trade him or extend him. And there are viable arguments on either side.

I tend to think the Orioles are going to reach an extension with Mancini, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's announced around the AS break this year.

[dude]

Are you saying the beat writers are floating the trial balloon of trading Mancini for the benefit of the Orioles?

 

Trial balloon is maybe the wrong context in that I don't think they're looking to generate response to inform a course of action.

 

I mean it more in the context of you start the marketing of that position so that people discuss it and socialize it across the community so that the emotion that can sometimes be seen in parts of the community already vents and there's less of it later.  You use the approach to manage perceptions of what you will do.  They (beat writers) do it all the time.

 

Beat writers are clearly promoting the team views of whatever.  It's how they get/keep their access/contract   Some people fault them for that, I don't really.  They aren't really independent.  There's certainly times when they are doing their own (for lack of a better phrase) work, but they are clearly leveraged as a messaging outlet for the Organization.

[dude]

Are you saying the beat writers are floating the trial balloon of trading Mancini for the benefit of the Orioles?

 

I wanted to point out something else recently.  Over in the Davis thread there was some comment from Britt, now working for the Athletic (I think) on "Where is Davis".  I think the commentary there was sort of ridiculous, but the fact is that she would never had said that or taken that approach if she was Sun or MASN.  Joe or Roch or Steve couldn't do that.

 

When you see "Orioles need to evaluate Jorge Lopez" or "what if the non-tender Alberto" or "Orioles are in the midst of a long rebuild" and there's plenty more, it's reliably the most likely consideration of the Team that's being socialized with the fanbase.  It's pre-marketing. 

 

It only happens in one direction.

[dude]

I tend to think the Orioles are going to reach an extension with Mancini, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's announced around the AS break this year.

 

...so you guys discussed this on your podcast.  You maintained this position while Stephan suggested he'd be a likely 1B trade (Scott 1A) candidate.

 

You've suggested you can go either way....so in the event that they trade and not sign him, what type of package would you want?

 

fwiw, my preference is to (like Means) keep him, but I don't think that's where the team is at in their thinking.

[BSLChrisStoner]

...so you guys discussed this on your podcast.  You maintained this position while Stephan suggested he'd be a likely 1B trade (Scott 1A) candidate.

 

You've suggested you can go either way....so in the event that they trade and not sign him, what type of package would you want?

 

fwiw, my preference is to (like Means) keep him, but I don't think that's where the team is at in their thinking.

 

If they trade him, what I want is a player the Orioles will have under team control for sometime... that will be ready to ascend to the Majors by mid-22 and projects to be a capable starter at SS, 3rd, 2nd, or the rotation. And then probably a second piece that can be a lower minors type, but needs to have plus upside.

Nolan Jones would be a logical target as you mentioned. 

 

I like Stewart.  I want to think that Stewart can give you 80% of Mancini's production.. but Stewart's issues with contact have me questioning that. 

Ultimately I just think the Orioles are going to pull the trigger on a Mancini extension. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Can look at the Top 100 going into this year, and see a number of names which would appeal... obviously would depend on their teams respective needs. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[BSLChrisStoner]

Would San Diego play Mancini in LF for a year? (Abrams? Probably not. Figure they'd use Abrams for something other than Mancini.)

 

Would Tampa Bay prefer him at 1st / DH vs. Choi or Meadows?  (Brujan, Edwards)

 

Would Seattle give up Gilbert if they thought Mancini could put them over the top in the West?

Would Milwaukee give up Turang and more?

 

Would St. Louis look at Mancini for LF? (Gorman)

[dude]

Would Milwaukee give up Turang and more?

 

I put Cleveland as the best destination for Manciini for a number of reasons.

 

I think the Brewers would be the second most interested team.  They have significant investment in Yelich and their pitching staff has been out-of-this-world. Central is wide open  The issue with the Brewers is they don't have much to offer.

 

I've spent a few minutes looking and most of the articles I've seen from late last year suggest the Competitive Balance picks are 'back to normal'.  I know there was some information where there was a halt put on trading of CompBal picks, but I can't find where that still in place for this year.  For the sake of this, I'll assume it's back to normal (if anything can be normal).

 

Brewers have the 33rd pick this year (3rd pick in A) and Detroit has the 32nd (2nd pick in A).

 

You mentioned Turang...he could be a good fit for the Tigers so let MIL make a play for their Comp A pick and....

 

MIL gets Mancini

BAL gets 1-32 (from DET) and 1-33 (from MIL)

DET gets Turang and [something/MIL]

[dude]

MIL gets Mancini

BAL gets 1-32 (from DET) and 1-33 (from MIL)

DET gets Turang and [something/MIL]

 

 

So I compare that to something from CLE.  It seems like Jones could be a touch out of reach, but if you go to the second deal above...the Orioles have the 1-65 pick (2nd pick in B) and the Indians have the 1-69 pick (6th pick in B)

 

CLE gets Mancini

BAL gets Bo Naylor and CompBal B 1-69

 

If you expanded it with 

CLE gets Santander and Stewart

BAL gets Aaron Bracho (CLE #8 mlb.com and mlb.com #6 2B) and Josh Naylor

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Hard PASS on any of those trades.

 

Trade 1 - Mancini a solid known commodity for 2 late first round picks. Big whoop.

 

Trade 2 - Mancini a solid known commodity for a C likely to be less (maybe a fair bit less) than Adley plus a comp pic. You're kidding right?

 

Trade 3 - Mancini a solid known commodity, Santander, and Stewart for Bracho and Josh Naylor. Bracho has some projected upside and at least may play a middle infield position. Naylor doesn't look to be any different than Santander (I like Santander better anyway). 

[dude]

Hard PASS on any of those trades.

 

You seem to be missing the 'expanded' part (you still start with Bo Naylor and the CompB).

 

I'm not sure what you think they'd get for him.  If you think they are keeping him and paying him 6-8M next year, I'd suggest that's inconsistent with what they've been doing and what they keep telling us they are doing.

 

I like Trey, respect what he's done(who he's become as a player) and I'd have already extended him.  I'm not trying to describe what I'd do, I'm guessing the Orioles will deal him and maybe sooner than later to get it done.

 

...so the question is, where would you be on the return for a trade.  I'm OK with you evaluating my thoughts, but provide your own (since you are qualified to judge)

[dude]

Indians have now been no-hit twice this year and we haven't even reached extended Tax Day.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think the Brewers would be the second most interested team.  They have significant investment in Yelich and their pitching staff has been out-of-this-world. Central is wide open  The issue with the Brewers is they don't have much to offer.

Turang and Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby.   Maybe still light. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ultimately I just think the Orioles are going to pull the trigger on a Mancini extension. 

I'll have to spend some time thinking of what an extension would look like.  Haven't done that.  But I'm pretty sure both sides can find a number they like.

[Mike in STL]

O's will have had four (maybe five depending of the rest of this season shakes out) years in a row of high draft picks, three years in a row of a top five pick, including a number one overall pick.

 

Eventually you should start signing some of the talented guys you have long-term so you can start building a team, instead of constantly re-building a team. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Or you look at Mancini as older than the rest of the core you are building and replaceable in general.

IMO there are multiple ways to look at this.

I can really be fine with keeping or trading.

I think the Orioles will extend, andcthat would be cool. He's not old even if older than others, he's looked at as a leader, and he'd like to be here. And most importantly he is productive.